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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

1…3738404243…47

Comments

  • #1172
    Rougies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,829 ✭✭✭Rougies


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    GFS 18Z up to +87 now (9am Thursday) and so far everything's being pushed slightly West, which is the way we want it to go. Will be interesting to see how the rest of it goes.

    -6/-7 uppers over the east of the country by Friday evening, convection popping up in the Irish Sea and Celtic Sea into Cork.


  • #1173
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,516 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Up I can see it up to 123hrs (9pm Friday) and it has the start of the easterly well underway at that stage. Good upgrade on the 12Z.


  • #1174
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,697 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    gfs-0-156.png?18

    gfs-1-156.png?18

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anwW_5kialI


  • #1175
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,516 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    A definite push westwards (and tighter easterly gradient), compare the two:

    18Z 09hrs Monday
    h850t850eu.png


    12Z 09hrs Monday
    h850t850eu.png


  • #1176
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,697 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    18_177_ukthickness850.png?cb=145


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  • #1177
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,087 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    What we are witnessing from the 18Z is a great synoptic evolution. A Greenland high looks a favourable outcome too.
    Quite simply Stunning north-hemisphere profile. Bank this run.


  • #1178
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭pad199207


    An out of this world 18z. I’d say some of us are finding it very hard to not get excited now!


  • #1179
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,516 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    nacho libre wrote: »
    What we are witnessing from the 18Z is a great synoptic evolution. A Greenland high looks a favourable outcome too.
    Quite simply Stunning north-hem profile. Bank this run.

    Was fully expecting a downgrade this run, far from what we got!
    Current charts are for sub zero temperatures during the day on Monday, only 8 days out, with the easterly having moved forward in time in each of the latest runs. (Even more unusual).

    Of course these often go as fast as they come (Hence my optimism is not explosive) however these are truly fantastic charts. Just hope we hold onto most of it.

    The 18Z is showing an end to it, low pressure moving up from the south and warm uppers over eastern europe, perhaps an area of concern?


  • #1180
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,087 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The only way is down- as in downgrade, but still even a diluted version of this would still be good. I am just hoping this is the one time out of a hundred that a chart like this comes off. It will be great to see Gerry Murphy saying the words siginificant snowfall for parts of Ireland next Monday. Maybe he will phone in sick that day.


  • #1181
    Rougies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,829 ✭✭✭Rougies


    JCX BXC wrote: »

    The 18Z is showing an end to it, low pressure moving up from the south and warm uppers over eastern europe, perhaps an area of concern?

    Perhaps, but equally as likely to be an area of epic battleground snow potential.

    EDIT: It turns out as a snow to rain battleground event. Would be epic for a while but then goes to poop.

    234-574UK.GIF?18-18


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  • #1182
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,516 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    An outstanding and most of all plausible pub run from the GFS. The outcome makes sense which sometimes doesn't always be the case.
    All eyes now on the overnight runs to continue the theme and trend.


  • #1183
    Rougies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,829 ✭✭✭Rougies


    nacho libre wrote: »
    The only way is down- as in downgrade, but still even a diluted version of this would still be good. I am just hoping this is the one time out of a hundred that a chart like this comes off. It will be great to see Gerry Murphy saying the words siginificant snowfall for parts of Ireland next Monday. Maybe he will phone in sick that day.

    I thought the same after yesterday's pub run, but I think this is an upgrade to that even. In a way it could be a good thing that the ECM wasn't great this evening as it will keep us from selling the car to buy a snowmobile.


  • #1184
    Say my name
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,719 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Rougies wrote: »
    Perhaps, but equally as likely to be an area of epic battleground snow potential.

    That was my thoughts too with the low pressure pushing up into the cold uppers.
    And it still continues with the easterly element.
    Long way out but it's surely a perfect chart for a heavy snowfall.


  • #1185
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    All off topic non model related discussion, please please please go to this thread to post

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=106188344#post106188344


  • #1186
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,516 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Complete breakdown and back to an atlantic regime on the GFS from the 1st of March, however that's very far out and can change as fast as it came. Edit:, hints that it's short lived and another easterly builds by the 6th.


  • #1187
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,516 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    And just for all you Cork dwellers

    prectypeuktopo.png

    Nice heavy snow right over the city, heaviest in the British isles :P

    Needless to say what food seasoning it should be taken with.

    Also, around the 28th as the warmer air moves up from the south, a proper dumping of snow all over the country before it turns to rain in the southern and eventually eastern fringes (and then eventually everywhere) and moves away. Would be an impressive band of frontal snow, over 20cm :D Wont happen, but nice to dream.


  • #1188
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,087 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    180-290UK.GIF?18-18

    brrrrr. Wrap up well!


  • #1189
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

    EsNyqRB.gif

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • #1190
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,087 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

    EsNyqRB.gif

    That would surpass the Siberian high! It seems highly unlikely.
    Is it true the UKMO rate this model highly?


  • #1191
    Rougies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,829 ✭✭✭Rougies


    nacho libre wrote: »
    That would surpass the Siberian high! It seems highly unlikely.
    Is it true the UKMO rate this model highly?

    Afaik they use the JMA, GEM, and ICON when looking at trends, which makes sense. I doubt they rate it highly, because its verification stats aren't high. A valuable tool in their arsenal in some medium range situations though.


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  • #1192
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GEFS 18z for Dublin. ;)

    ZfarZp3.png

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • #1193
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,259 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

    EsNyqRB.gif

    Remember, there would not actually be a pressure of 1085 at sea level. Greenland's inner surface stretches to >3 km amsl, so sea level pressures are imaginary reductions and not occuring in real life.


  • #1194
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Another good day of model watching and still relatively optimistic. But god, I hate that ECM run...


  • #1195
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,087 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    C4AD7D61-A979-4E96-AAD9-863941B1C91E.png.760400efddf66bae59d08476b1502218.png

    It still looks very good to me at this stage. GEM has - 16 air into south east England. I will pull my hair out if what the Icon depicts is correct- also we need the ECM to move towards the GFS- not the other way around. Come on ECM!

    Everyone is too quiet. I must be seeing things that are not there- it can happen when you are up all night):


  • #1196
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    The ecm keeps all that intensity well away
    A settled nothing to see here outlook
    Cold easterly neutered by high pressure and the scenic route to Ireland


  • #1197
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Remember, there would not actually be a pressure of 1085 at sea level. Greenland's inner surface stretches to >3 km amsl, so sea level pressures are imaginary reductions and not occuring in real life.

    Thus "a good laugh"..... do people ever read full posts. The most I've ever seen from a Greenland block was 1070mb in December 2010.

    And yeah, ECM is frustrating this morning again.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • #1198
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,516 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Not a bad run from the 06z, cold pushes slightly south again. Still progged to first arrive on Sunday, 6 days out now. End of run shows an awful return to mild southwesterlies, we won't take that as likely though :)


  • #1199
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,632 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Not a bad run from the 06z, cold pushes slightly south again. Still progged to first arrive on Sunday, 6 days out now. End of run shows an awful return to mild southwesterlies, we won't take that as likely though :)

    Ye must get that run earlier to everyone else in Clare! Unfortunately things not as good this morning with ECM showing the very cold air sinking south into Europe as opposed to heading to us. Has happened so many times recently and I fear it will be right again. The GFS still on board and there is still a long time for further changes.


  • #1200
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,385 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Not a bad run from the 06z, cold pushes slightly south again. Still progged to first arrive on Sunday, 6 days out now. End of run shows an awful return to mild southwesterlies, we won't take that as likely though :)

    Ye must get that run earlier to everyone else in Clare! Unfortunately things not as good this morning with ECM showing the very cold air sinking south into Europe as opposed to heading to us. Has happened so many times recently and I fear it will be right again. The GFS still on board and there is still a long time for further changes.

    Of course the ECM could verify at day 8 and stall in that position such that Munster gets its own mini ice age and the rest of the country read about it here!

    Seriously though, I too think Ive seen this movie before. A Jan 1987 type event was a 3-1 shot, now its 10-1 I fear.....


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  • #1201
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,410 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    The ecm keeps all that intensity well away
    A settled nothing to see here outlook
    Cold easterly neutered by high pressure and the scenic route to Ireland
    Similar thoughts. I thought of Feb 1986 when I saw the ECM this morning- perfect synoptics but bone dry. (I am aware that this is very welcome for those who work the land)
    The GFS is too good to be true so won't happen for that reason.

    ECM1-144.GIF?19-12


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