FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

JCX BXC wrote: »

GFS 18Z up to +87 now (9am Thursday) and so far everything's being pushed slightly West, which is the way we want it to go. Will be interesting to see how the rest of it goes.

-6/-7 uppers over the east of the country by Friday evening, convection popping up in the Irish Sea and Celtic Sea into Cork.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anwW_5kialI

Up I can see it up to 123hrs (9pm Friday) and it has the start of the easterly well underway at that stage. Good upgrade on the 12Z.

Kermit.de.frog

A definite push westwards (and tighter easterly gradient), compare the two:

18Z 09hrs Monday

12Z 09hrs Monday

Kermit.de.frog

What we are witnessing from the 18Z is a great synoptic evolution. A Greenland high looks a favourable outcome too.
Quite simply Stunning north-hemisphere profile. Bank this run.

pad199207

An out of this world 18z. I’d say some of us are finding it very hard to not get excited now!

nacho libre wrote: »

What we are witnessing from the 18Z is a great synoptic evolution. A Greenland high looks a favourable outcome too.
Quite simply Stunning north-hem profile. Bank this run.

Was fully expecting a downgrade this run, far from what we got!
Current charts are for sub zero temperatures during the day on Monday, only 8 days out, with the easterly having moved forward in time in each of the latest runs. (Even more unusual).

Of course these often go as fast as they come (Hence my optimism is not explosive) however these are truly fantastic charts. Just hope we hold onto most of it.

The 18Z is showing an end to it, low pressure moving up from the south and warm uppers over eastern europe, perhaps an area of concern?

The only way is down- as in downgrade, but still even a diluted version of this would still be good. I am just hoping this is the one time out of a hundred that a chart like this comes off. It will be great to see Gerry Murphy saying the words siginificant snowfall for parts of Ireland next Monday. Maybe he will phone in sick that day.

JCX BXC wrote: »

The 18Z is showing an end to it, low pressure moving up from the south and warm uppers over eastern europe, perhaps an area of concern?

Perhaps, but equally as likely to be an area of epic battleground snow potential.

EDIT: It turns out as a snow to rain battleground event. Would be epic for a while but then goes to poop.

234-574UK.GIF?18-18

mickger844posts

An outstanding and most of all plausible pub run from the GFS. The outcome makes sense which sometimes doesn't always be the case.
All eyes now on the overnight runs to continue the theme and trend.

nacho libre wrote: »

The only way is down- as in downgrade, but still even a diluted version of this would still be good. I am just hoping this is the one time out of a hundred that a chart like this comes off. It will be great to see Gerry Murphy saying the words siginificant snowfall for parts of Ireland next Monday. Maybe he will phone in sick that day.

I thought the same after yesterday's pub run, but I think this is an upgrade to that even. In a way it could be a good thing that the ECM wasn't great this evening as it will keep us from selling the car to buy a snowmobile.

Say my name

Rougies wrote: »

Perhaps, but equally as likely to be an area of epic battleground snow potential.

That was my thoughts too with the low pressure pushing up into the cold uppers.
And it still continues with the easterly element.
Long way out but it's surely a perfect chart for a heavy snowfall.

pistolpetes11

All off topic non model related discussion, please please please go to this thread to post

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=106188344#post106188344

Complete breakdown and back to an atlantic regime on the GFS from the 1st of March, however that's very far out and can change as fast as it came. Edit:, hints that it's short lived and another easterly builds by the 6th.

And just for all you Cork dwellers

Nice heavy snow right over the city, heaviest in the British isles :P

Needless to say what food seasoning it should be taken with.

Also, around the 28th as the warmer air moves up from the south, a proper dumping of snow all over the country before it turns to rain in the southern and eventually eastern fringes (and then eventually everywhere) and moves away. Would be an impressive band of frontal snow, over 20cm

Wont happen, but nice to dream.

brrrrr. Wrap up well!

sryanbruen

This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

sryanbruen wrote: »

This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

That would surpass the Siberian high! It seems highly unlikely.
Is it true the UKMO rate this model highly?

nacho libre wrote: »

That would surpass the Siberian high! It seems highly unlikely.
Is it true the UKMO rate this model highly?

Afaik they use the JMA, GEM, and ICON when looking at trends, which makes sense. I doubt they rate it highly, because its verification stats aren't high. A valuable tool in their arsenal in some medium range situations though.

sryanbruen

GEFS 18z for Dublin.

Gaoth Laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

Remember, there would not actually be a pressure of 1085 at sea level. Greenland's inner surface stretches to >3 km amsl, so sea level pressures are imaginary reductions and not occuring in real life.

patneve2

Another good day of model watching and still relatively optimistic. But god, I hate that ECM run...

C4AD7D61-A979-4E96-AAD9-863941B1C91E.png.760400efddf66bae59d08476b1502218.png

It still looks very good to me at this stage. GEM has - 16 air into south east England. I will pull my hair out if what the Icon depicts is correct- also we need the ECM to move towards the GFS- not the other way around. Come on ECM!

Everyone is too quiet. I must be seeing things that are not there- it can happen when you are up all night):

George Sunsnow

The ecm keeps all that intensity well away
A settled nothing to see here outlook
Cold easterly neutered by high pressure and the scenic route to Ireland

sryanbruen

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Remember, there would not actually be a pressure of 1085 at sea level. Greenland's inner surface stretches to >3 km amsl, so sea level pressures are imaginary reductions and not occuring in real life.

Thus "a good laugh"..... do people ever read full posts. The most I've ever seen from a Greenland block was 1070mb in December 2010.

And yeah, ECM is frustrating this morning again.