FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Rougies

JCX BXC wrote: »

GFS 18Z up to +87 now (9am Thursday) and so far everything's being pushed slightly West, which is the way we want it to go. Will be interesting to see how the rest of it goes.

-6/-7 uppers over the east of the country by Friday evening, convection popping up in the Irish Sea and Celtic Sea into Cork.

JCX BXC

Up I can see it up to 123hrs (9pm Friday) and it has the start of the easterly well underway at that stage. Good upgrade on the 12Z.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anwW_5kialI

JCX BXC

A definite push westwards (and tighter easterly gradient), compare the two:

18Z 09hrs Monday



12Z 09hrs Monday

Kermit.de.frog

nacho libre

What we are witnessing from the 18Z is a great synoptic evolution. A Greenland high looks a favourable outcome too.
Quite simply Stunning north-hemisphere profile. Bank this run.

pad199207

An out of this world 18z. I’d say some of us are finding it very hard to not get excited now!

JCX BXC

nacho libre wrote: »

What we are witnessing from the 18Z is a great synoptic evolution. A Greenland high looks a favourable outcome too.
Quite simply Stunning north-hem profile. Bank this run.

Was fully expecting a downgrade this run, far from what we got!
Current charts are for sub zero temperatures during the day on Monday, only 8 days out, with the easterly having moved forward in time in each of the latest runs. (Even more unusual).

Of course these often go as fast as they come (Hence my optimism is not explosive) however these are truly fantastic charts. Just hope we hold onto most of it.

The 18Z is showing an end to it, low pressure moving up from the south and warm uppers over eastern europe, perhaps an area of concern?

nacho libre

The only way is down- as in downgrade, but still even a diluted version of this would still be good. I am just hoping this is the one time out of a hundred that a chart like this comes off. It will be great to see Gerry Murphy saying the words siginificant snowfall for parts of Ireland next Monday. Maybe he will phone in sick that day.

Rougies

JCX BXC wrote: »

The 18Z is showing an end to it, low pressure moving up from the south and warm uppers over eastern europe, perhaps an area of concern?

Perhaps, but equally as likely to be an area of epic battleground snow potential.

EDIT: It turns out as a snow to rain battleground event. Would be epic for a while but then goes to poop.

mickger844posts

An outstanding and most of all plausible pub run from the GFS. The outcome makes sense which sometimes doesn't always be the case.
All eyes now on the overnight runs to continue the theme and trend.

Rougies

nacho libre wrote: »

The only way is down- as in downgrade, but still even a diluted version of this would still be good. I am just hoping this is the one time out of a hundred that a chart like this comes off. It will be great to see Gerry Murphy saying the words siginificant snowfall for parts of Ireland next Monday. Maybe he will phone in sick that day.

I thought the same after yesterday's pub run, but I think this is an upgrade to that even. In a way it could be a good thing that the ECM wasn't great this evening as it will keep us from selling the car to buy a snowmobile.

Say my name

Rougies wrote: »

Perhaps, but equally as likely to be an area of epic battleground snow potential.

That was my thoughts too with the low pressure pushing up into the cold uppers.
And it still continues with the easterly element.
Long way out but it's surely a perfect chart for a heavy snowfall.

pistolpetes11

All off topic non model related discussion, please please please go to this thread to post

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=106188344#post106188344

JCX BXC

Complete breakdown and back to an atlantic regime on the GFS from the 1st of March, however that's very far out and can change as fast as it came. Edit:, hints that it's short lived and another easterly builds by the 6th.

JCX BXC

And just for all you Cork dwellers



Nice heavy snow right over the city, heaviest in the British isles :P

Needless to say what food seasoning it should be taken with.

---

Also, around the 28th as the warmer air moves up from the south, a proper dumping of snow all over the country before it turns to rain in the southern and eventually eastern fringes (and then eventually everywhere) and moves away. Would be an impressive band of frontal snow, over 20cm Wont happen, but nice to dream.

nacho libre

brrrrr. Wrap up well!

sryanbruen

This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

That would surpass the Siberian high! It seems highly unlikely.
Is it true the UKMO rate this model highly?

Rougies

nacho libre wrote: »

That would surpass the Siberian high! It seems highly unlikely.
Is it true the UKMO rate this model highly?

Afaik they use the JMA, GEM, and ICON when looking at trends, which makes sense. I doubt they rate it highly, because its verification stats aren't high. A valuable tool in their arsenal in some medium range situations though.

sryanbruen

GEFS 18z for Dublin.

Gaoth Laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

Remember, there would not actually be a pressure of 1085 at sea level. Greenland's inner surface stretches to >3 km amsl, so sea level pressures are imaginary reductions and not occuring in real life.

patneve2

Another good day of model watching and still relatively optimistic. But god, I hate that ECM run...

nacho libre

It still looks very good to me at this stage. GEM has - 16 air into south east England. I will pull my hair out if what the Icon depicts is correct- also we need the ECM to move towards the GFS- not the other way around. Come on ECM!

Everyone is too quiet. I must be seeing things that are not there- it can happen when you are up all night):

George Sunsnow

The ecm keeps all that intensity well away
A settled nothing to see here outlook
Cold easterly neutered by high pressure and the scenic route to Ireland

sryanbruen

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Remember, there would not actually be a pressure of 1085 at sea level. Greenland's inner surface stretches to >3 km amsl, so sea level pressures are imaginary reductions and not occuring in real life.

Thus "a good laugh"..... do people ever read full posts. The most I've ever seen from a Greenland block was 1070mb in December 2010.

And yeah, ECM is frustrating this morning again.

JCX BXC

Not a bad run from the 06z, cold pushes slightly south again. Still progged to first arrive on Sunday, 6 days out now. End of run shows an awful return to mild southwesterlies, we won't take that as likely though

munsterlegend

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not a bad run from the 06z, cold pushes slightly south again. Still progged to first arrive on Sunday, 6 days out now. End of run shows an awful return to mild southwesterlies, we won't take that as likely though

Ye must get that run earlier to everyone else in Clare! Unfortunately things not as good this morning with ECM showing the very cold air sinking south into Europe as opposed to heading to us. Has happened so many times recently and I fear it will be right again. The GFS still on board and there is still a long time for further changes.

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not a bad run from the 06z, cold pushes slightly south again. Still progged to first arrive on Sunday, 6 days out now. End of run shows an awful return to mild southwesterlies, we won't take that as likely though

Ye must get that run earlier to everyone else in Clare! Unfortunately things not as good this morning with ECM showing the very cold air sinking south into Europe as opposed to heading to us. Has happened so many times recently and I fear it will be right again. The GFS still on board and there is still a long time for further changes.

Of course the ECM could verify at day 8 and stall in that position such that Munster gets its own mini ice age and the rest of the country read about it here!

Seriously though, I too think Ive seen this movie before. A Jan 1987 type event was a 3-1 shot, now its 10-1 I fear.....

Elmer Blooker

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The ecm keeps all that intensity well away
A settled nothing to see here outlook
Cold easterly neutered by high pressure and the scenic route to Ireland

Similar thoughts. I thought of Feb 1986 when I saw the ECM this morning- perfect synoptics but bone dry. (I am aware that this is very welcome for those who work the land)
The GFS is too good to be true so won't happen for that reason.