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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

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munsterlegend

sryanbruen wrote: »

In fairness, the ECM has been the one that’s been misbehaving this Winter. Just look at the early January for example. The GFS has been the accurate one of the two this season.

As someone else said whichever model shows the less severe outcome usually is closer to reality. Anyway it's great fun to watch. The UK met office have been on board with this easterly from weeks back so that give me grounds for optimism.

sryanbruen

munsterlegend wrote: »

Ye must get that run earlier to everyone else in Clare! Unfortunately things not as good this morning with ECM showing the very cold air sinking south into Europe as opposed to heading to us. Has happened so many times recently and I fear it will be right again. The GFS still on board and there is still a long time for further changes.

In fairness, the ECM has been the one that’s been misbehaving this Winter. Just look at the early January easterly for example. The GFS has been the accurate one of the two this season. Not to mention, the inconsistency of the ECM is a broken record this season.

TheMilkyPirate

Today's 12Z ECM could be the most important run of the winter. If it shows what it has showed in the last two runs I think it could be game over unfortunately but if it shifts back to the GFS solution it will be very hard not to get excited.

BLIZZARD7

Feeling fresh on Monday morning... Tis a very snowy run for Ireland

168-290UK.GIF?19-6

mickger844posts

Another fantastic GFS 6Z run. If only the ECM would start to play ball and rejoin the party. Even though its not having a great Winter the ECM gets it right more often than wrong so fingers crossed for the 12z later.

BLIZZARD7

Another extreme run from the GFS -

gfsnh-0-180.png?6

KingdomRushed

Steady as she goes on GFS thus far...out to about 150 hours, -16C uppers hitting eAst UK, -10 into Dublin

JCX BXC

Cold still set to arrive Sunday evening on the 06Z GFS update.

gabeeg

The GFS is still looking terrific

gfs-1-162.png?6

BLIZZARD7

We're in the model wobble stage - Not sure who has it right between the GFS and ECM at the moment, I'd lean towards a half way house though...

ICON 06z better with a sharper Atlantic profile up towards Iceland -

Elmer Blooker

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The ecm keeps all that intensity well away
A settled nothing to see here outlook
Cold easterly neutered by high pressure and the scenic route to Ireland

Similar thoughts. I thought of Feb 1986 when I saw the ECM this morning- perfect synoptics but bone dry. (I am aware that this is very welcome for those who work the land)
The GFS is too good to be true so won't happen for that reason.

ECM1-144.GIF?19-12

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not a bad run from the 06z, cold pushes slightly south again. Still progged to first arrive on Sunday, 6 days out now. End of run shows an awful return to mild southwesterlies, we won't take that as likely though

Ye must get that run earlier to everyone else in Clare! Unfortunately things not as good this morning with ECM showing the very cold air sinking south into Europe as opposed to heading to us. Has happened so many times recently and I fear it will be right again. The GFS still on board and there is still a long time for further changes.

Of course the ECM could verify at day 8 and stall in that position such that Munster gets its own mini ice age and the rest of the country read about it here!

Seriously though, I too think Ive seen this movie before. A Jan 1987 type event was a 3-1 shot, now its 10-1 I fear.....

munsterlegend

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not a bad run from the 06z, cold pushes slightly south again. Still progged to first arrive on Sunday, 6 days out now. End of run shows an awful return to mild southwesterlies, we won't take that as likely though

Ye must get that run earlier to everyone else in Clare! Unfortunately things not as good this morning with ECM showing the very cold air sinking south into Europe as opposed to heading to us. Has happened so many times recently and I fear it will be right again. The GFS still on board and there is still a long time for further changes.

JCX BXC

Not a bad run from the 06z, cold pushes slightly south again. Still progged to first arrive on Sunday, 6 days out now. End of run shows an awful return to mild southwesterlies, we won't take that as likely though

sryanbruen

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Remember, there would not actually be a pressure of 1085 at sea level. Greenland's inner surface stretches to >3 km amsl, so sea level pressures are imaginary reductions and not occuring in real life.

Thus "a good laugh"..... do people ever read full posts. The most I've ever seen from a Greenland block was 1070mb in December 2010.

And yeah, ECM is frustrating this morning again.

George Sunsnow

The ecm keeps all that intensity well away
A settled nothing to see here outlook
Cold easterly neutered by high pressure and the scenic route to Ireland

nacho libre

C4AD7D61-A979-4E96-AAD9-863941B1C91E.png.760400efddf66bae59d08476b1502218.png

It still looks very good to me at this stage. GEM has - 16 air into south east England. I will pull my hair out if what the Icon depicts is correct- also we need the ECM to move towards the GFS- not the other way around. Come on ECM!

Everyone is too quiet. I must be seeing things that are not there- it can happen when you are up all night):

patneve2

Another good day of model watching and still relatively optimistic. But god, I hate that ECM run...

Gaoth Laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

Remember, there would not actually be a pressure of 1085 at sea level. Greenland's inner surface stretches to >3 km amsl, so sea level pressures are imaginary reductions and not occuring in real life.

sryanbruen

GEFS 18z for Dublin.

Rougies

nacho libre wrote: »

That would surpass the Siberian high! It seems highly unlikely.
Is it true the UKMO rate this model highly?

Afaik they use the JMA, GEM, and ICON when looking at trends, which makes sense. I doubt they rate it highly, because its verification stats aren't high. A valuable tool in their arsenal in some medium range situations though.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

That would surpass the Siberian high! It seems highly unlikely.
Is it true the UKMO rate this model highly?

sryanbruen

This from the JMA 12z was a good laugh, 1085mb block over Greenland! Could you only imagine. :pac:

nacho libre

brrrrr. Wrap up well!

JCX BXC

And just for all you Cork dwellers

Nice heavy snow right over the city, heaviest in the British isles :P

Needless to say what food seasoning it should be taken with.

Also, around the 28th as the warmer air moves up from the south, a proper dumping of snow all over the country before it turns to rain in the southern and eventually eastern fringes (and then eventually everywhere) and moves away. Would be an impressive band of frontal snow, over 20cm

Wont happen, but nice to dream.

JCX BXC

Complete breakdown and back to an atlantic regime on the GFS from the 1st of March, however that's very far out and can change as fast as it came. Edit:, hints that it's short lived and another easterly builds by the 6th.

pistolpetes11

All off topic non model related discussion, please please please go to this thread to post

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=106188344#post106188344

Say my name

Rougies wrote: »

Perhaps, but equally as likely to be an area of epic battleground snow potential.

That was my thoughts too with the low pressure pushing up into the cold uppers.
And it still continues with the easterly element.
Long way out but it's surely a perfect chart for a heavy snowfall.

Rougies

nacho libre wrote: »

The only way is down- as in downgrade, but still even a diluted version of this would still be good. I am just hoping this is the one time out of a hundred that a chart like this comes off. It will be great to see Gerry Murphy saying the words siginificant snowfall for parts of Ireland next Monday. Maybe he will phone in sick that day.

I thought the same after yesterday's pub run, but I think this is an upgrade to that even. In a way it could be a good thing that the ECM wasn't great this evening as it will keep us from selling the car to buy a snowmobile.

mickger844posts

An outstanding and most of all plausible pub run from the GFS. The outcome makes sense which sometimes doesn't always be the case.
All eyes now on the overnight runs to continue the theme and trend.