FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

BLIZZARD7

We're in the model wobble stage - Not sure who has it right between the GFS and ECM at the moment, I'd lean towards a half way house though...

ICON 06z better with a sharper Atlantic profile up towards Iceland -

gabeeg

The GFS is still looking terrific

JCX BXC

Cold still set to arrive Sunday evening on the 06Z GFS update.

KingdomRushed

Steady as she goes on GFS thus far...out to about 150 hours, -16C uppers hitting eAst UK, -10 into Dublin

BLIZZARD7

Another extreme run from the GFS -

mickger844posts

Another fantastic GFS 6Z run. If only the ECM would start to play ball and rejoin the party. Even though its not having a great Winter the ECM gets it right more often than wrong so fingers crossed for the 12z later.

BLIZZARD7

Feeling fresh on Monday morning... Tis a very snowy run for Ireland

TheMilkyPirate

Today's 12Z ECM could be the most important run of the winter. If it shows what it has showed in the last two runs I think it could be game over unfortunately but if it shifts back to the GFS solution it will be very hard not to get excited.

sryanbruen

munsterlegend wrote: »

Ye must get that run earlier to everyone else in Clare! Unfortunately things not as good this morning with ECM showing the very cold air sinking south into Europe as opposed to heading to us. Has happened so many times recently and I fear it will be right again. The GFS still on board and there is still a long time for further changes.

In fairness, the ECM has been the one that’s been misbehaving this Winter. Just look at the early January easterly for example. The GFS has been the accurate one of the two this season. Not to mention, the inconsistency of the ECM is a broken record this season.

munsterlegend

sryanbruen wrote: »

In fairness, the ECM has been the one that’s been misbehaving this Winter. Just look at the early January for example. The GFS has been the accurate one of the two this season.

As someone else said whichever model shows the less severe outcome usually is closer to reality. Anyway it's great fun to watch. The UK met office have been on board with this easterly from weeks back so that give me grounds for optimism.

JCX BXC

Easterly continuing on the GFS, no southwesterly.

pauldry

Today's 12Z ECM could be the most important run of the winter

At what time is this out?

Darwin

12Z ECM rolls out between 6pm and 7pm

BLIZZARD7

Typically now the ECM will hop on board and the GFS will drop it south...

KingdomRushed

The amazing thing about this is the consistency across all the models to form this huge block, with us either slap bang in the mother of all easterlies or just a tad too far north of the beast.

What is not so amazing, is, even though there is great consistency in the model output it is still this day next week that the real hard cold is shown to arrive on. A lot of water to flow under the bridge so

patneve2

We may very well end up with an ECM like solution, although maybe not as bad as what the 0z run is showing. More like a half way house between GFS and ECM, but a bit closer to the ECM route - high pressure and not much precip over Ireland. Would be a real real pity as the GFS ensembles are still very very good. Missing 2010 a lot, the model consistency for that cold spell was amazing, was always going to be bulls eye that year.

BLIZZARD7

These charts are something you very very rarely get to see, I hope the GFS has a better handle on things and I do remember it was the better model in 2010 - I feel a halfway house with ECM might be the reality though, which will still be interesting...

Ensemble MEANS








Will this winter go down as a little colder and more interesting than normal or as one of the classics?

Calibos

The pessimist in me thinks that in 10 days we'll be crying looking at photo's of 2ft of snow in Wales, the Balearic Islands, Morocco and Algeria

Pangea

Here's the latest from the Met Office
https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155592656239209/

Elmer Blooker

Pangea wrote: »

Here's the latest from the Met Office
https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155592656239209/

Interesting bit at the end of that forecast.

" ..... snow flurries next weekend, nothing too heavy at this stage .."

George Sunsnow

That was a very positive forecast from Aiden as Regards confidence towards what’s coming
All that warm air advection up the center of the Atlantic can only mean one thing, a high out there near Iceland

He was definitely suggesting or at least not denying that the super cold he’s pointing to in the attached screen grab would be making inroads next week



Can’t post the screen grab because boards has imposed an arbitrary 1Mb attachment size again
Seriously boards?
The screen grab is 1.45 mb.,,

BLIZZARD7

Icon is very good, -12c 850s flooding in this time next week - All the 12z runs looking better so far...

TheMilkyPirate

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Icon is very good, -12c 850s flooding in this time next week - All the 12z runs looking better so far...

UKMO on board at +144 as well. Also looking like another good GFS run

ECM will be interesting later

JCX BXC

Latest GFS delaying the arrival of the coldest uppers slightly, nothing surprising considering they have been brought forward in time several times.

Currently forecasting a nice band of snow crossing the country in a week, not too bad 7 days out. My confidence is growing slightly. If we see a good ECM I will finally allow myself to gain a slight bit of optimism

JCX BXC

Not a bad 12Z GFS run, sticking to its guns mostly with a few adjustments, looks more plausible if anything.

Monday 26th




Daytime Temperatures on Tuesday....brrr....



Wednesday night.....



GFS going for frequent snow showers from Monday onwards

Also, please don't quote pics.

JCX BXC

And finally, a beautiful frontal snow band moving up Wednesday Night/Thursday





Several feet of snow anyone?

JCX BXC

And finally, after the low moves up towards Norway and weakens, a light northerly flow becomes established bringing down lower uppers. The big low pressure in the Atlantic that ruined the fun on the 06Z has disappeared completely. If we could lock in this run and get it I'd be very happy.

Rebelbrowser

Yeah, all turns on tonight's ECM I think. If its like the GFS and both are the same in the morning you can start whispering about this to friends and family......

nacho libre

I think there will no debate about what kind of precipitation falls if these parameters are correct! You don't often see 508 dam thickness over Ireland!

BLIZZARD7

+180 MEAN 850 temps from the 12z GFS - Stunning



Then have a look at these wind chill temps as a Blizzard moves in from the south -