FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

BLIZZARD7

We're starting off well guys...



Okay cold won't be in as fast as the other models but importantly here it's taken good steps towards the GFS.

JCX BXC

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Okay cold won't be in as fast as the other models but importantly here it's taken good steps towards the GFS.

Don't see much of a change compared to the 00Z so far.

BLIZZARD7

JCX BXC wrote: »

Don't see much of a change compared to the 00Z so far.

It's a good bit better - cold pool further north and shape of high better, but cold air is a day behind the GFS, point is it's still game on...

JCX BXC

Better at 168hrs though

LEIN

boards is breaking in anticipation of an epic run.

nacho libre

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NAGDEFI

Much improved 12z ECM. Cold pool shifted significantly north. We still have skin in the game:)

-8 850s hitting the eastern third of the country by 1pm this day week..

BLIZZARD7

Stunning ECM when it gets going - more depth to the cold pool pouring in from the north east...

dacogawa

ECM heading back a bit north...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018021912/ECM0-192.GIF?19-0

M.T. Cranium

nacho libre wrote: »

.

Point taken. :pac:

savj2

This is a big change from the last run.

George Sunsnow

LEIN wrote: »

boards is breaking in anticipation of an epic run.

-9 850 air Greystones by this day week with a lot colder not far behind

Pressure is high though at 1030 to 1035 mb so flurries only until that drops

dacogawa

Actually ran to the laptop to see the end of the ECM run, right back on track

LEIN

George Sunsnow wrote: »

-9 850 air Greystones by this day week with a lot colder not far behind

Pressure is high though at 1030 to 1035 mb so flurries only until that drops

Finally, it's looking like us east coasters are in for some of the white gold.

nacho libre

Good God. Just look at the length of that easterlies!

and very tasty uppers all the way to the west coast of Ireland.



We will marvel at these charts in years to come.

gabeeg

Is that a massive Northerly headed our way at 240?

ANDREWMUFC

gabeeg wrote: »

Is that a massive Northerly headed our way at 240?

I’m scared

BLIZZARD7

It finished up with a GH about to send a freezing northerly with a chunk of PV likely following - 2010 esque

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium's fabled Greenland express incoming!

JCX BXC

Kermit's started a thread on the possible cold spell ahead:https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057843266/1/#post106195711

M.T. Cranium

The transition from easterly to northerly looks a bit suspect, this allows the massive blocking high to disappear from the charts within 48 hours, other models are just linking it west towards Greenland. Given that the cold spell is not quite a lock yet, I would set that northerly aside as pure speculation at this point, the more likely outcome would be some relaxation of the easterly flow to northeast with transient west-moving troughs, and that high latitude outbreak confined to smaller areas northeast of Greenland perhaps.

The main point for optimism is that high pressure has already formed a chain from north of Bering Straits to northern Scandinavia, the former high north of Alaska has drifted northwest and is passing the north pole on the Siberian side now, with a strong ridge through to Franz Josef Land. Whenever Franz Josef Land gets mentioned in a weather discussion, you know it has to be good.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The transition from easterly to northerly looks a bit suspect, t

Surely though if we want to extend the cold, it's better we do see a robust Greenland high emerge, even if that means the easterly is brief??

Meteorite58

Very impressive stuff. Is the long wait nearly over ? A cold lover's dream come through if these charts verify.

gabeeg

If that Northerly at 240 is a phantom, then you can upgrade the Easterly shown

NMB

F5 F5 F5 F5 18Z

gabeeg

NMB wrote: »

F5 F5 F5 F5 18Z

You're slowing it down, you fecker.

Be judicious.

MJohnston

GFS 18Z looking very very similar to the 12Z up to +105 so far

JCX BXC

-10 uppers over most of the country by 3am Monday, a good 12 hours earlier than on the 12Z GFS update.

mickger844posts

Another fantastic GFS run. Trends are always what we look for and i'm loving how the GFS is rolling out these perfect charts run after run. We just need this to continue and get it within a reliable time frame.

Mullaghteelin

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The transition from easterly to northerly looks a bit suspect, this allows the massive blocking high to disappear from the charts within 48 hours, other models are just linking it west towards Greenland. Given that the cold spell is not quite a lock yet, I would set that northerly aside as pure speculation at this point...

It doesn't disappear, it retrogressing westward.

The stratospheric warming has put everything in reverse, so the high moves westward over time.

The northerly about to hit us on the ECM is very potent in its own right, so its all good.
We should see further cold plunges from the north or northeast, as long as the block doesnt go any further west than Greenland.
But lets get the easterly out of the way first