FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

probably the most outrageous run I've ever seen - Repeated blizzards in likely record breaking cold, Something better come of these ridiculous charts...

it would be nice to have a few days of proper lying snow but if that chart came off it would be chaos.

nacho libre

I would only start a thread at 48 hours out. An easterly can disappear at that range - as we saw back in 2012, although we did not have a record breaking ssw back then. I think we will get an easterly or north easterly, but something rather tamer than what the models currently show. I hope i'm wrong about that. We need new stories rather than harking back to the epic snow events of the 80s.

M.T. Cranium

So now we're into the haggling stage, I'll drop my price to 96 hours.

pauldry

Its very clearly possible to me that the end of February will be very cold.

Worst case scenario I see by the charts is severe frosts

Best case scenario I see is numerous days of school closures and high sales of spades.

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

probably the most outrageous run I've ever seen - Repeated blizzards in likely record breaking cold, Something better come of these ridiculous charts...

Carlsberg has clearly taken over the GFS tonight.
Dare i say it, that charts reminds me of charts from way back in 1947. Just look at how unstable it is and how far of a draw there is on it. Also the extensive blocking to the north. With the Azores high nowhere to be seen.

What I would not give for a chart like that to become reality.

JCX BXC

When you think about it, it's rather amazing that we could predict what the models were about to say before they said it.

Donegal Storm

December 2010 is still the holy grail for me, if the current charts were being shown a month ago (and at 24z) then they might rival it but it doesn't get much better than this. Massive block across the whole Atlantic and strong unstable northerlies dropping straight from northern Greenland. Doubt I'll see similar in my lifetime again

nacho libre

Donegal Storm wrote: »

December 2010 is still the holy grail for me, if the current charts were being shown a month ago (and at 24z) then they might rival it but it doesn't get much better than this. Massive block across the whole Atlantic and strong unstable northerlies dropping straight from northern Greenland. Doubt I'll see similar in my lifetime again

I have to disagree slightly, if the above GFS chart comes off the time of year will be irrevelant- it will rival things that took place in the winter of 1947 for some.

For me personally 2010 was the greatest snow event ever - i had never seen a foot of snow at home before, and i doubt i will again.
I have seen greater amounts of snow in Canada, but it's not the same as seeing snow where you grew up.

BLIZZARD7

00z GFS is an upgrade up to +120hrs



-10c 850 temps make landfall by day 7

Rougies

Yeah looking good, cold brought in earlier rather than the usual donkey chasing a frozen carrot on a stick into April.

BLIZZARD7

Rougies wrote: »

Yeah looking good, cold brought in earlier rather than the usual donkey chasing a frozen carrot on a stick into April.

Aha yeah - it's an evolution on the same theme, short waves popping up all over the place but that will all change, UKMO is different but very good also at +144hrs. Good start to the day so far.

BLIZZARD7

Later into the GFS run we end up dragging warm air in from the south due to the block being too far north and more importantly we lose the Genoa low- a feature that is absolutely required to sustain an easterly. Incredible synoptics from a northern hemisphere point of view- the SSW is having a massive impact.

M.T. Cranium

And then there's the 00z ECM run -- I assume this has frozen most readers in place.

It shows the -17 C at 850 mb into southeast England and -13 to Dublin.

I am just a reporter. My opinion means nothing.

(this is the link, but it resets to day three, you need to click on 240h)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

Rebelbrowser

Well GFS, ECM and GEM (inter alia) all showing what we want to see this morning. Still big differences though. ECM and GEM have it colder with the incredible cold arriving sometime during Monday week. GFS has it ending that day for Ireland, a less cold easterly having landed this Friday coming.

Oneiric 3

ECM Op run at day 10:




And how the mean of the ensembles look at day 10.



Pissing cold rain here again with the ground bulging with super saturation. I am dreaming of days gone where easterlies like this used to dry out the ground so much that the soil would be rock hard. Don't disappoint me ECM, or there will be hell to pay.

JCX BXC

GFS 00Z was very dissapointing in my opinion, never got the easterly going. The 06Z much better and more comforting though

BLIZZARD7

The sublime charts continue, the slightly more delayed nature of the ECM allows for a better angle of attack from the cold (shorter sea track) leaving us with less chance of short waves and some seriously deep cold - The 06z GFS has moved back towards this idea too

BLIZZARD7

The east of the country is in sub -8c uppers for 7 days on this run...

Just to emphasize how unusual that would be, the second spell of December 2010 almost had 7 in a row except a day in the middle around the 20th.

I jumped back to 1963 and it never achieved it at any point either, it did however have multiple 5 day blocks of these temperatures.

On top of this, none of those spells were late february/early March.

pad199207

Jesus if this ends up like 'that failed easterly' in 2012 it will be worse this time id say! Thats if it gets into the same timeframe as 2012.

mickger844posts

If there wasn't a SSW would we be taking these charts so seriously??? Still all too far out in FI for my liking. My gut tells me we are in for some sort of event but my head tells me wait and get these amazing charts at 96Hrs. Fantastic eye candy though

squarecircles

If you want to keep your head in touch with reality,it will probably be 3 cold days with a diluted modified cold,with milder conditions out towards the west coast.

sryanbruen

The GEFS 06z upper air temps for Dublin are a cracker .

PukkaStukka

Interesting commentary here on NW on the SSW and it's impact and effect on the models, particularly with regard to the wild variations and uncertainty it's causing

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8740-sudden-stratospheric-warming-brings-weather-model-mayhem

pad199207

squarecircles wrote: »

If you want to keep your head in touch with reality,it will probably be 3 cold days with a diluted modified cold,with milder conditions out towards the west coast.

Usually I would agree with such a statement but to be honest I think maybe and just maybe this time it will be much more potent.

Gaoth Laidir

What was this failed 2012 easterly? I don't remember.

Kermit.de.frog

It was a projected easterly incursion (sub -15 850 hpa and super low 500 hpa height levels) that came down to the wire well within the more reliable timeframe and would have provided record breaking cold. At the last minute there was sudden cross model agreement to take it down in to the continent and it gave record breaking cold weather over large swathes and as far southwest as Spain and Portugal.


It was spectacular for them but we were left in a high pressure dominated no mans land.





Lessons were learned!

Donegal Storm

I remember a 6 Nations game in Paris had to be cancelled right before kickoff because of a frozen pitch that week, eastern England also had severe cold with the sea freezing over in harbours. For us it ended up as a couple of bright frosty days but nothing more

patneve2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It was a projected easterly incursion (sub -15 850 hpa and super low 500 hpa height levels) that came down to the wire well within the more reliable timeframe and would have provided record breaking cold. At the last minute there was sudden cross model agreement to take it down in to the continent and it gave record breaking cold weather over large swathes and as far southwest as Spain and Portugal.


It was spectacular for them but we were left in a high pressure dominated no mans land.





Lessons were learned!

For many parts of the central med 2012 was a bit like our 2010... Some places at sea level on Italy's E coast got 1 meter of snow from sea effect showers (2 metres of powder above 500 metres asl!) and even Rome managed to get a 15cm fall (Rome is probably the least snowy euro capital after Lisbon).

BLIZZARD7

Ensemble means - Very very strong signal from the ECM Ensembles /GEFS

JanuarySnowstor

Still time for it to go pear shaped but with so many seasoned peeps calling this one I'm very confident. Remember minus 5 uppers from an Easterly is enough with low dewpoints and the gfs / ecm are going down as low as minus 12

If it does come off and bear in mind the US has had a very cold winter the global warming experts may be left scratching their heads....

If this is global warming bring it on!!