2018 Leaf

unkel wrote: »

What do you mean, DrPhilG? You're disappointed it's "only" 40kWh? I feel that's a respectable enough capacity. You have to take into account the Leaf competes at the bottom of the market. What were you expecting, 60kWh?

Nissan (and all other EV manufacturers excluding Tesla and Hyundai) have to be aware though that the most important thing about EVs is coefficient of drag. Nothing else matters as much. Not for now anyway while battery capacity comes at a price.

Considering the bolt is available at 60kWh, that sets the new "non-premium" EV standard (ie non-Tesla).

Entering with a new EV now at 40kWh is toward the lower end of the current market and will be derisively old hat in 2-4 years.

grogi wrote: »

I'm the same. I am optimistic, but I believe it when I see it.

How come?

KCross wrote: »

The Bolt isn't available over here though, is it, and its apparently being sold at a loss so I wonder if it is really the benchmark?

Nissan need to make money and I think the focus should be on range rather than battery size. This is what Tesla are doing by removing the battery capacity badges from their cars. Range is really all that matters, the Ioniq has taught us that.

Regardless, I don't think 40kWh will be old hat in 4yrs time based on the affordable EV's on the way.... which is very little!

It's not available here but that's because of the PSA/Peugeot involvement.
It is available in the rest of the EU.

If you take 4 years from now going backwards (IE 2013) all we had was the gen1 leaf. We've moved on a lot in those 4 years, and we now have 40kWh in the Zoe and 30-33kWh in others. I think in another 4 years with the ever cheaper per kWh battery cost, the expanse in battery size will be exponentially faster. I think the limit for small cars will be 60kWh and luxury cars 100kWh.

It's a bit "predicting the future" though and all anyone can gave is their best guess based on what has gone before, and there's no reason why my answer is any more or less "correct" than yours.

For one thing, it will be interesting to come back in 2021 to read this thread and see what happened in the interim!

grogi wrote: »

I don't think there will be exponential explosion of the capacity. In my opinion for entry level cars the range/capacity will plateau at 250 km of winter range - which is around 40 kWh combined with improved efficiency.

There will be cars with longer range, but it the progress will be towards cheaper drive trains rather than bigger batteries.

This ^^

The gains in capacity are hard won and expensive. It's not Moore's law we are dealing with in battery capacity. The cost of batteries has reduced considerably ($1000/kWh to <$200/kWh) which has allowed the increase from 24kWh EV's to 40-50kWh. Having 60kWh as standard in the medium term (10yrs) seems unlikely to me. You will be able to get it but pay a premium for it. i.e. it won't be a €25k car.

The next jump up will be difficult to deliver to the masses unless there is a battery tech breakthrough.... just my opinion based on how long it has taken to get to here and from listening to Musk talk about Tesla batteries and costs etc.

It is plenty.
But if it were sufficient, we would already see mass EV adoption.

Which as we know, has not happened.

So - we need larger batteries and/or much more efficiency gains, to give a 400-500km real world range.
The EVs we have now are great cars don't get me wrong but the reality is no one wants them - with the exception of the oddballs like myself (and the others on this forum) who can do the sums right!

ELM327 wrote: »

It is plenty.
But if it were sufficient, we would already see mass EV adoption.

Which as we know, has not happened.

To be fair though, the 40kWh affordable cars are not here yet (apart form Zoe) so you can't say its insufficient because the market hasn't bought something that doesn't exist.

We need to see Leaf II, Model 3, Ioniq II and a bunch of other 40kWh cars and then you might see an upsurge in purchasing when put alongside higher taxes on ICE.

grogi wrote: »

It is not about what people need, but what people think they need or want.
Majority of people don't need diesel, yet it still is 70% of the market in here.

When the only option given is to buy a 400/250km (summer/winter range) car or 600/400km for 30% more, majority will really think and pick what they really need.

KCross wrote: »

To be fair though, the 40kWh affordable cars are not here yet (apart form Zoe) so you can't say its insufficient because the market hasn't bought something that doesn't exist.

We need to see Leaf II, Model 3, Ioniq II and a bunch of other 40kWh cars and then you might see an upsurge in purchasing when put alongside higher taxes on ICE.

People don't buy what they should, they buy what they want!
Eg - people buying diesel to do 5k per year.
Even if you show someone (and I know becaise I have done this) that an EV would suit 100% of their journeys for the past 12-18 months, there's the "what if" question which is magically resolved by the 400km range.

Logically an Ioniq or 30kWh leaf should suit everyone living in the GDA but there are very few on the road.

ELM327 wrote: »

I have learned one important lesson re buying an EV,make sure you never need to use the network. Only for long trips (eg holidays etc), never for regular or time sensitive trips as it is not dependable. At all.

And our TDs and govt are not even remotely interested in addressing the charging network. All the talk about improving air quality is just that. Talk.

who_ru wrote: »

And our TDs and govt are not even remotely interested in addressing the charging network. All the talk about improving air quality is just that. Talk.

I just don't see why ecotricity or fastned can't come here.
I look jealously at the Norway companies with 4+FCP in some locations.

We can but dream :mad:

KCross wrote: »

They won't until there is a decision made on the current infrastructure.

Would you spend millions on a network rollout while the current system is free?

They need to know where they stand first. Tesla are an exception because the cost of their network is built into their car sales price.... very clever and gives them a big advantage going forward.


FYI: The CER are saying (yesterday) that they will publish a decision on it by the end of this month, so next week!

At least that would be some progress! Do you have a link to that?

Well, if the Kona is over 300km, then the tipping point is close. Not a lot more needed to swing a large tranche of the public.

I could live with the Kona as the second EV car in the house, no ICE.

KCross wrote: »

I dont. It was a direct email I sent to them and thats what they said to me yesterday.

They also said end of Q2 a few months ago so take it whatever way you wish, but a weeks time is awfully close to be bull****ting me so I think we will see some detail in the next 1-2 weeks.

The quote was:

The CER is expecting to publish a decision paper by the end of this month.

Ok great.
Hopefully it will bring an end to this impasse, one way or another

Was thinking of my mum who would in 95% of situations, could easily use an EV. But it is those times when she goes to see her siblings in the 4 corners of Ireland, when that 5% ,would be the most critically important. My mum will not want and will not understand the charging network and even if she did, one dud charger could spell 'disaster'. Not until someone likes her can pull into a 'service station' with guaranteed 'refulling' would i imagine an EV would ever suit her. (or indeed the vast majority of the public ).

Great Diesel, to extrapulate from your mother's particular circumstances, to the majority of the pop.
If you don't believe in EV, you have made your point.

Can't see how ESB would be left with a monopoly, Against EU regs. ESB/EirGrid would have to produce a protocol that allows private suppliers enter the market.