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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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18-09-2016 1:23pm#1Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards
If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
Just looking ahead into the next couple of weeks to see what might be in store. It would seem to me that after the week coming being under the influence of a weaker more unorganized Jet Stream ,next Weekend on from the 24th gets more organised with a strong Zonal flow producing quite an amount of low's moving up off the coast and then the Jet goes more Meridional with the models predicting lows coming in from the South. It was a recent Meridional jet that introduced warmer tropical continental air with record breaking Temperatures followed by heavy rainfall for some.It also proved a very difficult time for forecasters to predict as there was a big change in forecasts in only a few days with fast forming troughs and lows forming.
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The first chart has the GEM showing the remnants of Karl ,after being incorporated into another low system, with a very large wind field brush up against Ireland around Tues.
The second GFS has a less amount of the remnants of Karl incorporated into a low pressure system with less strength and much further North around the same time. Time will tell.
And the possible cold spell after that ???
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On the latest 12z run the GFS indicating that we dodged the bullet from the remnants of Karl. The models in general I think are saying at the moment that the strongest part of the storm will keep to the North of us.
The WRF 06z run possibly showing the storm closer and earlier.
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lapua20grain wrote: »Ok cheers
He mentioned October over on the Netweather Forum. No idea if that is the start or end though
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Set to continue unsettled for the week , as Met Eireann called it a mobile Atlantic flow. A very deep depression showing up on the models for next Sat/ Sun according to the 06z GFS, CMC has it arriving about 48 hrs later . Long way off yet so no doubt will see this modify as the days go on.
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Definitely want to keep an open mind to the models at the moment, seen some big variants between even consecutive runs. This deepening depression is showing up now in a few of the models but the tendency at the moment is for it to just glance off Ireland before heading almost in reverse back to the NW. Both the GEM and GFS have it around early Mon morning.
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That hefty and deep looking storm the weekend is set to stay well out in the Atlantic I would think. Meanwhile it looks to me like a continuation of an active Atlantic Regime next week with another big depression sweeping into the Atlantic midweek but at this stage looks to mainly stay away from Ireland and then it would seem that a big High pressure builds over Scandinavia bringing an E'ly in from Europe at the end of next week, no real cold weather yet it would seem, Europe still very mild.
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Two Blocking High Pressures, one over Scandinavia and one out in the Atlantic Keeping an area of lower pressure with cloud and outbreaks of rain over Ireland/ England for a few days run up to this date if it comes off. The Atlantic High pressure doing a good job of keeping that Storm ( ex Nicole ) to the left of it out of the way in this run anyway. Snow Showing up over Scandinavia.
This High Pressure would be nice if it happens
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Yea, big plunge of cold uppers showing up from about the 1st until the 7th at least, other charts showing a mix of high and low pressures and sporadic rainfall but way too early to tell for sure. After this weeks temps getting up to mid teens, next week looking decidedly cooler with charts showing daytime temps around 7- 9C
Cold Northerly wind ( windchill ! )
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After a return to more unsettled cold windy and at times wet weather this weekend it would seem to me that Low pressures are returning from next week in a more vigorous Atlantic regime with systems passing North of us producing windy and wet weather and making it feel wintry at times when fronts go through and dragging down Nw'ly winds and no doubt hail and wintry showers .
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droidman123 wrote: »Why do people keep posting links to the weather forecast for the uk on a site predomintely read in ireland? What is the point?
Errr because what's talked about in that link is relevant to Irish weather this winter
The BBC report on this today translated the jargon as a higher risk of artic sourced northeasterlies being more likely due to signs of Atlantic blocking,a weaker polar vortex,an unusually warm North Pole and bitter air already seeping further south earlier than usual with a lot of northern Eurasia under snow today right down to Moscow
I'm actually excited 0 -
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:pac: .... also when desperation sets in around mid February and the sun is climbing the search for a sudden stratospheric warming is the last throw of the dice!usually the cold is always 10 days away and this 10 days away is usually chased for 3 months till we end up in mid March!
Joanna Donnelly mentioned on the radio this morning that it will turn a lot colder at the end of next week, before that some very mild weather (14c) for the early days of next week.
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Just for sport, a few pixels on the Dublin/Wicklow mountains on the 20th nov.
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/globaldata.html#GFSS
I only highlighted Britain and Ireland for a screen grab forecast snowcover in the pic.
But you can play around in the link for forecasts.
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Nah That's a perfect ArKl0w northeasterly
In the above Gonzo would be in the Isle of Man shadow
A perfect Gonzo is an easterly;)
Although to be honest,the snowstorms would be so big in the above,we'd all be so buried,you could probably walk to the Isle of Man
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Nah That's a perfect ArKl0w northeasterly
In the above Gonzo would be in the Isle of Man shadow
A perfect Gonzo is an easterly;)
Although to be honest,the snowstorms would be so big in the above,we'd all be so buried,you could probably walk to the Isle of Man
Ive goten kicked in the teeth so many times by that Isle of Man shadow.
As a kid in the 80s I used to go mad seeing no snow here and 10 minutes away there could be a foot of it. Over 20 years later I realized it was the Isle of Man spoiling my fun the whole time.
The Uk dont know who lucky they have it, any easterly or northerly there is unbroken, huge sea tracks and no shadows.0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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