FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

I am not feeling too optimistic about a proper block taking hold given the vortex is now set to recover somewhat according to the lastest strat forceasts. The window of opportunity is within the next month according to most lrf before a more zonal pattern takes over, yet the uk met office talk only of slightly below average temperatures, with milder incursions in the south during December, with the north colder overall. So bascially more of the same.. Based on M.T Craniums post it seems he was not confident of high latitude blocking taking place in his long rang forecast.

icesnowfrost

Again hinting at fairly cold conditions around the weekend of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th of Dec. It's changed so many times though from run to run.

pedigree 6

Whatever about high latitude blocking, it looks like high pressure systems for us all the way in FI with a few days break of a low pressure.
I think our focus should be on frost at night.

nacho libre

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Whatever about high latitude blocking, it looks like high pressure systems for us all the way in FI with a few days break of a low pressure.
I think our focus should be on frost at night.

I do enjoy fog and frosty weather, but it will be deeply frustrating if,with the polar vortex being weak compared to last year and a southerly tracking jet, we don't get a few days of widespread snow over low ground in the next few weeks. Maybe it is just being mannerly by waiting till i get home until a monster 1050 hp takes up residence over Greenland;)

nacho libre

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Whatever about high latitude blocking, it looks like high pressure systems for us all the way in FI with a few days break of a low pressure.
I think our focus should be on frost at night.

I do enjoy fog and frosty weather, but it will be deeply frustrating if,with the polar vortex being weak compared to last year and a southerly tracking jet, we don't get a few days of widespread snow over low ground in the next few weeks. Maybe it is just being mannerly by waiting till i get home until a monster 1050 hp takes up residence over Greenland;)

pedigree 6

Ok total weather novice here. But would this be what they call SSW (Sudden stratospheric warming) and what would this generally mean for weather here?
I have picked the best chart.;)

pedigree 6

Lol.:D Who likes snow?

hotwhiskey

Well GFS still showing a northerly but 10 days out. So I wouldn't get to excited.
But on a another note the GFS is very good at picking up northerly especially back in 2010 long before any other model picked up on the data. If this chart was to come off with the high stretching the length of the Atlantic from Greenland and a massive high over Siberia well we would have won the lotto. So our chances are slim. But there is a chance.





NO snow for the east coast:P. Only joking people love seeing everyone getting snow. But I feel we will have a cold December nothing like last year which would'nt be hard to beat.

ArKl0w

Yes the above would start a shiver followed by snow,2010 style
Pity it's not the ECM though and say 144 or something

ArKl0w

https://twitter.com/_weatherstu/status/801148242511753216

icesnowfrost

Fairly consistent the last few days showing some good cold around the 1st 2nd of December -8 uppers could see some nice snowfall if it keeps up

Elmer Blooker

Reputations are on the line here, these two couldn't be more different at +240.
We'll see in ten days time who got it more or less right and who got it wrong!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016112400/ECM1-240.GIF?24-12
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016112406/gfs-0-240.png?6

je551e

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Reputations are on the line here, these two couldn't be more different at +240.
We'll see in ten days time who got it more or less right and who got it wrong!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016112400/ECM1-240.GIF?24-12
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016112406/gfs-0-240.png?6

Who do you tend to think is more accurate?

Nabber

Neither will be accurate. +240 is a fun run. 😂😂

Around the 72.- 96hr. That's where you judge them. All so take some comparisons on low pressure systems as they track north or south of us. Some models can be more accurate with different weather conditions

Elmer Blooker

je551e wrote: »

Who do you tend to think is more accurate?

ECM, this +240 chart for today is outstanding. If the GFS was accurate we'd be having a Nov 2010 now!

kkontour

the GFS wasn't terribly far the ECMWF though

TheMilkyPirate

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Reputations are on the line here, these two couldn't be more different at +240.
We'll see in ten days time who got it more or less right and who got it wrong!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016112400/ECM1-240.GIF?24-12
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016112406/gfs-0-240.png?6

Reputations on the line at +240? Hardly, You should no better Elmer you are around here long enough.

kkontour wrote: »

the GFS wasn't terribly far the ECMWF though

That chart you posted is from yesterday. Check the date in the top right.

Meteorite58

After next weeks settled High Pressure looks like to come back under the influence of an agile Jet around 5 -6th Dec . Temps seem to be a lot milder for the most part in a SW, W airflow bringing air from lower latitudes at times. Looks to be windy and wet IMO.

Rebelbrowser

A cold end to January in sight!

BLIZZARD7

No mild air coming anytime soon if the UKMO is to be believed. Feeling very chilly at the surface as a raw easterly breeze develops -





FI is +96 hrs at the moment, All to play for...

ArKl0w

Dry though,very dry
The crucial question is where does the high retrogress?

mickger844posts

Looking at the models this morning it looks like when this cool dry spell ends next week we will be in a mild S to SW flow to about mid month. Then it may turn colder again leading into Xmas. Hopefully it's a cold, mild, very cold trend.

Gonzo

mickger844posts wrote: »

Looking at the models this morning it looks like when this cool dry spell ends next week we will be in a mild S to SW flow to about mid month. Then it may turn colder again leading into Xmas. Hopefully it's a cold, mild, to a very cold trend which will be forever chased 10 days away.

Just thought i'd make an edit to your quote!:D

Meteorite58

A few windy spells showing up on the charts with low pressures moving quickly across the Atlantic as they do. Timing , track and strength will only be determined from a few days out as usual. The last chart shows a tasty deepening depression but this may change completely.

Yourself isit

So is the Atlantic back for good?

Meteorite58

Yourself isit wrote: »

So is the Atlantic back for good?

From the 6th till the 17th anyway it looks like it, Jet looking active.

Gonzo

Yourself isit wrote: »

So is the Atlantic back for good?

rarely does it come back alive after 3 months only to die down again 3 weeks later. Let's hope it doesn't have the power to control the entirety of winter.

Elmer Blooker

Yourself isit wrote: »

So is the Atlantic back for good?

For 6-8 weeks in my opinion, I'm writing off December and January at least.
A long dry and settled spell with a quiet Atlantic is always followed by a wet spell and we all know that wet weather in winter always means mobile westerlies.
This is not a moan. Its a very very long way back from this especially after a dry and blocked two months.
Of course I'd love to be 100% wrong!

ArKl0w

Present indicators sadly suggest Long range winter forecasts for mid December were wrong
The aptly named beast from above not the east is on its way :mad:

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/804684555961692160

Tickityboo

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

For 6-8 weeks in my opinion, I'm writing off December and January at least.
A long dry and settled spell with a quiet Atlantic is always followed by a wet spell and we all know that wet weather in winter always means mobile westerlies.
This is not a moan. Its a very very long way back from this especially after a dry and blocked two months.
Of course I'd love to be 100% wrong!

Wow!! two thirds of winter written off on the 2nd December!!