FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nagdefy

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Take this with plenty of salt. There is potentional for some white stuff on the big day in the northern half of the country. Some modals showing different variance in guidance but there is a chance. It will be all down to timing, flip a coin from Tropical maritime or Polor maritime air flow.

Some difference in the 850 temps north and south!

pedigree 6

It's livened up a fair bit here then.:D;)

It does look to be some beast though. Here it is from windytv.

Planet X

S / SW, should be nice and warm.......

Oscar Bravo

18Z GFS . all calm Christmas eve and the days before it. charts are all over the place. also showing high pressure slap bang over the country for NYE

nagdefy

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

18Z GFS . all calm Christmas eve and the days before it. charts are all over the place. also showing high pressure slap bang over the country for NYE

Suppose it's at the 8/9 day stage still. There'll be a bit of flip/flopping until Sunday at least.

Iancar29

06z control run ... MERRY CHRISTMAS YA FILTHY ANIMAL

Oscar Bravo

Some serious damage if that came to pass!

pedigree 6

Does anyone else think that these potential storms may actually be a good thing down the line and shake things up a bit??
Could we actually get a good Greenland high going from all this?

(Trying to see the positive):P

cherryghost

Iancar29 wrote: »

Holy crap

PukkaStukka

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Some serious damage if that came to pass!

Yep, I agree. Of all the days for that thing to come calling. It can feck right off.

Gonzo

Iancar29 wrote: »

06z control run ... MERRY CHRISTMAS YA FILTHY ANIMAL

plenty of people without Christmas dinner if that came off.

pedigree 6

Looks like we are possibly in for some interesting weather.
The ECMWF is showing 850hPa temps of -4 to -8 over the country on the 26th.

Meteorite58

I think the models certainly showing an unsettled period around Christmas but they differ a fair bit in timing and strength. Also as pedigree 6 pointed out showing more cold upper incursions around that time frame also. Some now showing colder days and very cold nights also. Could be a wintry mix and feeling quite raw in the wind. Possibility of big hail showers perhaps when fronts have gone through.









12Z GEFS Ensemble for a later time then the chart in the previous post above looking a lot more flabby.

Oscar Bravo

Not going to impact us ,and of course its FI but look at that low on the 18Z GFS just to the NW of Ireland for wednesday the 28th. 944 mb!

JanuarySnowstor

Well today has very much watered down the stormy picture for Christmas Eve / day. Still too early to call......time for upgrades tomorrow. Either way we'll have a good idea by Sunday

Meteorite58

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Not going to impact us ,and of course its FI but look at that low on the 18Z GFS just to the NW of Ireland for wednesday the 28th. 944 mb!

A Beast ! But yea a lot of these storms in FI never materialize, the 30th showing one atm as well.

Meteorite58

Signs of cooler uppers around xmas



:pac:



:eek:

Meteorite58

Christmas day looking markedly stormer in the latest GFS run.

Meteorite58

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Christmas day looking markedly stormer in the latest GFS run.

Only looking at the GFS 12Z short time ago, out come the 06Z and big change again showing what was Christmas day stormy weather pushed out to early Stephens day and a decreases in strength...... To be continued

kittyn

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Only looking at the GFS 12Z short time ago, out come the 06Z and big change again showing what was Christmas day stormy weather pushed out to early Stephens day and a decreases in strength...... To be continued

Charts seem to be all over the place at the moment, huge swings run to run 😱

Meteorite58

I'll just put this here for the snow lovin folks to whet their appetites !

mickger844posts

The models are sure all over the place the last few days. A couple of days ago there was no real chance of cold leading up to Xmas with Atlantic domination but charts today showing -6 uppers 22nd then milder then colder again for Xmas day, I think it's still all to play for. It must be a nightmare for forecasters as there is still no clear picture for next weekend.
Hopefully whatever happens it will be a more interesting week than the past few.

Meteorite58

And the uncertainty continues on the 12Z GFS run, Stormy Christmas day on these, would need to see a few other models come on board and then consistently for a few runs to believe it.

Meteorite58

Strong looking Jet at times through out the Holidays

nagdefy

Quite violent for the northern half of the country if this came to pass. From 12Z ECM.

nagdefy

I'd make the assumption, even though we're in FI, that we're going to have a storm named 'B' between 24-26 December.

Aengus effected the south of England in November. We seem to be dominating the naming of storms the last 2 years. Barney, Clodagh, Aengus. And the odd horrendous name like Gertrude thrown in

Apologies to any boards weather poster who has a mammy, auntie or granny Gertie;)

Darwin

Matt Hugo just tweeted the 12Z EC for Christmas Day is an outlier on the extreme end, but LP in some shape or form may still develop.

Yourself isit

Storm Barbara. If it happens. Second named storm of the winter and first to hit Ireland. If it happens which isn't certain. Anyway better than last year.

ninebeanrows

The threat is now appearing to be more focused around Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.

Large divergence in the handling of the low. However, significant risk and I'd expect there will be a large standby crew ready for some utilities over the Xmas period.

ninebeanrows

Widespread inland gusts reaching 60-70mph on latest run.

Gusts along Atlantic coasts 80mph+

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

Widespread inland gusts reaching 60-70mph on latest run.

Gusts along Atlantic coasts 80mph+

Don't these storms usually head a bit further north east? Will be interesting to watch

ninebeanrows

In some instanced they do take a jog further north in reality as they will often be deeper than the low resolution models would indicate and thus take a further northerly track.

However, it's far too early to speculate on this system yet. Other than to be aware of the risk.

ninebeanrows

Happy Christmas

Meteorite58

One to watch for sure, early days though.

Villain

At least GFS brings it forward with worst while people sleep Christmas Eve

ninebeanrows

GFS Op has powerful Christmas Day storm..

nagdefy

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS Op has powerful Christmas Day storm..

That would be very bad, nationally too. We're in for a weak of model watching.

I mean weather model watching

sunbeam

Looking a bit gusty here in Achill for Christmas lunch time :eek:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016121812/168-289UK.GIF?18-12

Average winds speeds in excess of 120km/h forecast for here.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016121812/168-602UK.GIF?18-12

Really hope this gets downgraded...

ninebeanrows

EC Operational says NO storm.

Does not phase the low development with the jet.

Meteorite58

The GEM and EC say no storm, the GFS says yes. I think with a very mobile Jet, deep plunges of PM cold air and warm air being drawn in to the mix is creating a very volatile flow with a few twists and turns to go. I've seen some wild swings in the runs the last few days but the general theme I think is for deep lows passing close to our shores with quick changing temperatures from mild to cold in a matter of hours with some wintry weather at times. We could be seeing very contrasting temps across the country at times.

nagdefy

Which would generally be more accurate in predicting wind storms, ECM GEM, GFS?

I presume it's 50/50?

munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The GEM and EC say no storm, the GFS says yes. I think with a very mobile Jet, deep plunges of PM cold air and warm air being drawn in to the mix is creating a very volatile flow with a few twists and turns to go. I've seen some wild swings in the runs the last few days but the general theme I think is for deep lows passing close to our shores with quick changing temperatures from mild to cold in a matter of hours with some wintry weather at times. We could be seeing very contrasting temps across the country at times.

It will be interesting anyway compared to the very bland conditions of the last few weeks.

Iancar29

With the ECMWF and GEM not evolving the deep lows ,

lets have a look at a few of the... interesting /

scary

runs by the GEFS.





(not effecting Ireland as much but yeah... :eek:


But most of all....

nacho libre

nagdefy wrote: »

Which would generally be more accurate in predicting wind storms, ECM GEM, GFS?

I presume it's 50/50?

The GFS tends to over exaggerate the strength of storms, then back pedals closer to the time.

Chris_5339762

Iancar29 wrote: »

With the ECMWF and GEM not evolving the deep lows ,

lets have a look at a few of the... interesting /

scary

runs by the GEFS.


(not effecting Ireland as much but yeah... :eek:

But most of all....

Look horrible, all of them. But they're not the craziest...

This one from 2013 is still the most ludicrous.

JanuarySnowstor

Well if the 18z were to be right hurricane force winds would strike on Christmas day.
It's the gfs v ecm, hard to tell where this is going

sunbeam

If the GFS 18z is right I'll be lucky to have a roof on Stephen's Day.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016121818/162-289UK.GIF?18-18

hotwhiskey

Yes the GFS is not backing down. This storm has been showen up on the GFS also on ECM on the 14th but has now leaned away from, We are looking at hurricane force winds here for much of the country. If the GFS is right this is very alarming devolopment indeed. But it is seven days away and it is the only model showen this really intence storm on Christmas day.

mickger844posts

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well if the 18z were to be right hurricane force winds would strike on Christmas day.
It's the gfs v ecm, hard to tell where this is going

GFS well and truly sticking to its guns. We all love a good weather event but if this actually happened as modeled we would be looking at an horrendous day.
Overall the run is stormy to say the least. Very interesting to see what the ECM comes up with overnight.
Historically are we due another "Night of the Big Wind"

pedigree 6

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well if the 18z were to be right hurricane force winds would strike on Christmas day.
It's the gfs v ecm, hard to tell where this is going

The ecm has high pressure over us on Christmas day.
I can't really see that happening with record cold in the U.S there's likely to be a strong jet stream heading our way and pushing back against this high.
They all agree on a building high in Europe but ecm has it moving our way.
It's the building high in europe coupled with what gfs say a deeping low pulling in the cold air and then the difference in between and we could be stuck in the middle between the two that is giving these strong forecast winds.

It looks like we are in for strong winds though whatever day/days it will happen.