FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ninebeanrows

ArKl0w wrote: »

I wouldn't go buying shares in it!

I have invested heavily in Irish home heating oil for delivery on Feb 1st :pac:

Gonzo

mickger844posts wrote: »

We've been here before lads. If these charts show at 72 hrs ill take notice. Models have been performing very poorly this Winter so far.

we've seen stuff go pear shaped even within 48 hours in the past! We get a decent snowfall once, maybe twice per decade, its easy not to be positive when we live in a country such as this with such a pathetic record for lying snow.

Yourself isit

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Looking great from the 12th. Is it to be lol probably not but if it all comes together it will be class

Very interesting if very unlikely.

Iancar29

Could we please keep the thread on topic? - Which is FI model output not one liners.

GFS flirting us with a nice ridge of high pressure setting us up for a nice brief but strong northerly in FI.




ECM very similar.


GEM doesn't give have the ridge pushing north as much as the others. Therefore doesn't pull down a strong northerly.


UKMO @ 144hrs Similar to ECM

ninebeanrows

Strong indications for cold spell commencing late next week. Intensity and longevity of cold spell uncertain but what is now very likely is a period of below average temperatures and a heightened risk of wintry precip

mickger844posts

Nice to have the big three on board but over a week away so still loads of time for downgrades. Interesting to see if this outcome is still on the cards when the models roll out early next week. The last snow we got here in Waterford was March 2013 from a similar NW flow set up so anything is possible. In fact we had about 7cm on the 11th and a few showers on the 27th.

sumtings

Iancar29 wrote: »

Could we please keep the thread on topic? - Which is FI model output not one liners.

GFS flirting us with a nice ridge of high pressure setting us up for a nice brief but strong northerly in FI.




ECM very similar.


GEM doesn't give have the ridge pushing north as much as the others. Therefore doesn't pull down a strong northerly.


UKMO @ 144hrs Similar to ECM

Hi,

the ECM is the GFS above,

mickger844posts

Very encouraging 12z runs from The GFS and ECM. Still all in FI but we have to start someplace. If we see the current output by the end of the week reasons to buy a ticket for the roller coaster I think. At least some hope there any way.

Rebelbrowser

mickger844posts wrote: »

Very encouraging 12z runs from The GFS and ECM. Still all in FI but we have to start someplace. If we see the current output by the end of the week reasons to buy a ticket for the roller coaster I think. At least some hope there any way.

The 18z gfs is better again actually and suggests after the northern toppler there will be a more easterly component. All in fi but sure we can dream.... nothing spectacular in terms of uppers but -8s off and on for the best part of a week.

ArKl0w

-8's are just about enough for north easterlies to make things interesting unlike similar uppers off a more modifying Atlantic

ArKl0w

Interesting 12Z ECM
Some almost very cold enough-9c 850 air into Ulster by Thursday which should bring snow inland at low levels

Looking at the whole NH profile,I'm half expecting a severe cold outbreak from the east in the next few weeks,it's inevitable in my opinion,it was snowing in Amsterdam this morning ,the type of deep cold in eastern and now Central Europe is very hard to dislodge,and will want to visit as is likely when an easterly eventually gets going,lets see?

nacho libre

Well the UKMO were talking about a low risk of an Easterly in recent days towards the last week of January, but now all mention of that is gone. Perhaps this will be one of the rare times, that its included again in their outlook in coming days. It seems we are locked into a pattern which shields us from
the very cold airmass plunging down into much of Europe
I don't foresee an easterly happening without a ssw event, which forces the polar vortex to be displaced well away from its usual spot.

ArKl0w

nacho libre wrote: »

Well the UKMO were talking about a low risk of an Easterly in recent days towards the last week of January, but now all mention of that is gone. Perhaps this will be one of the rare times, that its included again in their outlook in coming days. It seems we are locked into a pattern which shields us from
the very cold airmass plunging down into much of Europe
I don't foresee an easterly happening without a ssw event, which forces the polar vortex to be displaced well away from its usual spot.

To be honest,the UKMO were winging it in December and winged it wrong
An easterly or a northeasterly can happen in many ways,it doesn't need the strat warming,Feb 91 being an example of one with a lot less cold out east than now
I also think models are varying on a theme a lot in the past week or two with one commonality,none of them veer too far from allowing a cold outbreak if you follow my thinking?

Easterly Beasterly

ArKl0w wrote: »

To be honest,the UKMO were winging it in December and winged it wrong
An easterly or a northeasterly can happen in many ways,it doesn't need the strat warming,Feb 91 being an example of one with a lot less cold out east than now
I also think models are varying on a theme a lot in the past week or two with one commonality,none of them veer too far from allowing a cold outbreak if you follow my thinking?

I Love your thinking Arklow...The models all seem to lead to cold but have been swinging wildly so I guess nobody believes any outcome they throw out. Am I right thinking that the Northerly next week looks quite potent with the potential of low pressure systems moving North to South dragging cold air?

nacho libre

ArKl0w wrote: »

To be honest,the UKMO were winging it in December and winged it wrong
An easterly or a northeasterly can happen in many ways,it doesn't need the strat warming,Feb 91 being an example of one with a lot less cold out east than now
I also think models are varying on a theme a lot in the past week or two with one commonality,none of them veer too far from allowing a cold outbreak if you follow my thinking?

I know it can happen without a strat warming, but it just seems to me we are locked into a pattern we can't get out of without a warming to deliver what we want. All the models have at various stages
teased a cold out break over the last month.
If they are all in sync about a cold outbreak from the east at three days out, then it might be time to get excited. Although as Stuart Rampling( the netweather forecaster) found out a few years ago it can all go pear shaped even at that timescale.

ArKl0w

Talk of polar lows is premature,those develop quickly and a few pockets of -9 air are still border line in polar maritime air
I'm not terrible excited down here about a northerly or north westerly but snow showers will happen in the favoured places,sometimes Dublin

What I'm more interested in now is how many efforts we have to endure before the real thing comes as it surely will because that cold to the east isn't going to fade soon and we have the time on our side for an easterly to pop up if you get what I'm thinking?

Gonzo

ArKl0w wrote: »

Talk of polar lows is premature,those develop quickly and a few pockets of -9 air are still border line in polar maritime air
I'm not terrible excited down here about a northerly or north westerly but snow showers will happen in the favoured places,sometimes Dublin

What I'm more interested in now is how many efforts we have to endure before the real thing comes as it surely will because that cold to the east isn't going to fade soon and we have the time on our side for an easterly to pop up if you get what I'm thinking?

let's be honest, the only thing most of us care about is an easterly, anything westerly or northerly related results in a non event for most of the population. I'm not having a go at the people in the west, it's just they get westerly snow almost every winter, we get easterly snow maybe once every 5-10 years. After 6 years of nothing more than isolated dandruff or 10 minutes of wet sleet from the west, it's time we get a few days of fun from the east, we are overly due it at this stage!. Anything from March onwards doesnt count, we have a 6-7 week window left at best.

nacho libre

Nice chart- direct feed - although it will likely not be quite like that on the day, if it was, although it likely won't be, a nice surprise could pop up in the flow

pedigree 6

Gonzo wrote: »

let's be honest, the only thing most of us care about is an easterly, anything westerly or northerly related results in a non event for most of the population. I'm not having a go at the people in the west, it's just they get westerly snow almost every winter, we get easterly snow maybe once every 5-10 years. After 6 years of nothing more than isolated dandruff or 10 minutes of wet sleet from the west, it's time we get a few days of fun from the east, we are overly due it at this stage!. Anything from March onwards doesnt count, we have a 6-7 week window left at best.

Who are ya telling??

The weather gods?:p

Donegal Storm

nacho libre wrote: »

Nice chart- direct feed - although it will likely not be quite like that on the day, if it was, although it likely won't be, a nice surprise could pop up in the flow

A direct feed at that moment in time but the upper flow is still zonal so more a standard polar maritime nw'erly than northerly. Not something I'm getting excited about, 850hpa temps are usually a degree or two higher once the day arrives so -6C to -8C at best which typically delivers hail and sleet showers with brief hill snow.

The next blast on the 14th and the resulting easterly depends on a wave that doesn't even exist yet so no point looking too closely at that yet

nacho libre

True, it's only an arctic flow in the north of Scotland based on that chart

Although once the troughs have passed down it should introduce a arctic sourced flow going into Friday

-6 - 8 uppers , if it is an active flow, is just enough, along with the following parameters:



Dewpoint - 1 or -2c


850-1000mb thickness 1280 Dam

850 Theta charts 10c



I would expect snow in Ulster and North Connacht on low ground on Thursday night into Friday if these charts verify. Lets see what happens.

Rebelbrowser

Ecm is great this morning for cold. Pretty cold thurs to sat with snow chances followed by an easterly outbreak ( not especially cold but cold enough for snow). No mention in MT's forecast I note though so he is obviously unconvinced.....

ArKl0w

It's noteworthy isn't it that the overnight ECM keeps coming back to an easterly at about day 8 to 10 a very very potent one given conditions on the continent

nacho libre

ArKl0w wrote: »

It's noteworthy isn't it that the overnight ECM keeps coming back to an easterly at about day 8 to 10 a very very potent one given conditions on the continent

It would back up what you said to be fair, but i remain unconvinced till i see
John Hammond mention the words easterly incoming.

nacho libre

There are very cold uppers hanging on in the south east of England according to the latest ecm charts for next Monday. The question is will the cold eventually march west or be shunted off into the continent as the GFS is showing? Quiet a standoff. Which model will be right.

update:
another ecm 10 day chart tease:

Meteorite58

Getting close !, Imagine all that cold air coming in from Europe and beyond. Will this be the one.

MidMan25

ECM Ensembles :O

icesnowfrost

Lovely easterlies coming with the ecm. Way into fi but nice to see it. Keep getting hints at the beast from the east. Is it coming I think it will.

Rebelbrowser

sean555 wrote: »

Looks like the Moscow Express {or maybe in this case the Warsaw Express} is on the way for next week.

Just looked. You are right, Gfs fully on board for eastern outbreak extending all the way over us! Fingers, toes and everything else crossed.....

Stealthfins

sean555 wrote:

Looks like the Moscow Express {or maybe in this case the Warsaw Express} is on the way for next week.

Trans siberian Express