Wed, Thu, Fri - Potential Snow event

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121731871#Comment_121731871

About 30mm of rain due from tomorrow night through to Friday afternoon for you. Starting off as sleet tomorrow night but turning to rain thereafter

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121731880#Comment_121731880

Well I suppose at least I get all day tomorrow in the (relative) dry!

Honestly, has there been a wetter 7 months on record than the last seven months!?- it’s abysmal.

Apologies for dragging this off thread folks, keep up the good informative work.

M.T. Cranium

It does not look super promising for snow except for one detail, as low pressure circles around southwest of Kerry, somewhat colder air could begin to seep back towards central Ireland from Ulster where it probably won't get pushed out entirely at any point. Elevation based results almost certainly, but it could turn back to wet snow overnight at lower elevations in some places (Thurs-Fri). Never know, 00z models could upgrade potential again, if not I don't see much time available for improvements (or what normal people would call increased risks).  First point of interest will be to see how low dewpoints fall in the inland north counties by morning. Cloud will spread in and there won't be a lot of warm advection so those dew points could persist until sleet begins.

JanuarySnowstor

The whole event is a yawnfest, quite similar to the Winter as a whole. Indeed the South hardly turns cold at all before more rain moves up

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121732253#Comment_121732253

Cork is always marginal in most weather events bar floods. If you want sexy weather action, move to the Midlands. The home of heatwaves, snow orgies and, formerly, the bog train.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121732338#Comment_121732338

That's why I moved to the Midlands.

Rebelbrowser

Is this the first ever snow event ramped more by Met Eireann than by this forum?

Banarol

Re snow

sdanseo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121732436#Comment_121732436

Think it's the old curse of the more densely populated areas being unlikely to see anything mentionable other than light schnizzle. Those above 200-300m north of a line Wicklow to Limerick are likely to see a nice covering from this, with that said, but it'll be short lived and washed away soon after.

All for snow and I'll ramp all day every day if it's properly inbound. This is not that (I hope I'm wrong) and there comes a point where you just have to shrug and pine for the summer where hopefully global warming/cooling/trump farting will produce >30 degrees and 2 months without rain.

Banarol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121728420#Comment_121728420

It was Monday morning 7th January 1991 when it started off as rain at about 10am. It turned to snow by noon and snowed heavily for much of the day. We were sent home from school at 2pm.Thurles was like a winter wonderland.It was one of the heaviest snowfalls for this area.It remained cold for the week and much of the snow remained on the ground.We got the week off school. This event doesn’t get near as much coverage as the snow the affected eastern areas the following month February 1991. This is probably because it was much more localized.

M.T. Cranium

The 00z suite of guidance is basically a continuation of the ideas discussed here and the 05z obs are nowhere colder than 0 C and probably -1 or -2 dews at best. Looks like the best chance for snow would be overnight Thurs-Fri as slightly milder air will push northwest on Friday. I would guess best place to see a decent accumulation of snow could be Connemara, around Knock and parts some upland parts of Ulster, as well as highest slopes in southeast. But we'll keep an eye on all developments as details could change, I suppose.

Possibly same set-up in absence of AGW and warmer oceans could have been productive, it's probably 2 C too warm in most aspects to generate wintry falls but not bad synoptics, just usual problem of needing a more robust push of cold air as we saw 27-28 Feb 2018.

WolfeEire

Any snowfall overnight and into Thursday will most likely be restricted to high ground in the inland west and north. The approaching front meets little resistance from the colder airmass, primarily due to the lack of nudging heights to the north of Ireland. 

KingJeremy

I try not to, but I always get sucked in and hopeful. Met App was showing some snow/rain for Portumna tomorrow for a good portion of the morning, and even though those pesky rain symbols were mixed in with the snow ones I was still delighted. Checked this morning and now not a hint of snow, ALL rain 😔

Fool me once… 😏

Thelonious Monk

I seem to think that when I was a kid going to school around early 90s and even later on we'd get snow in Dublin, and I grew up in D5 which isn't far from the coast, usually at least once a year where you'd have enough to play in it all day. Or maybe I just don't remember all the snowless winters. I can't remember the last time this happened in Dublin, I was on holidays during the Beast from the East so missed that. Have we had any lying show in Dublin since the BFTE?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121732888#Comment_121732888

3rd March 2019 - heavy rain to snow event that struggled to settle on wet ground. Did settle on the grass to some extent. Baldonnel managed a cm covering.

8th January 2021 - a cm covering over Killiney to Greystones area as a localised streamer occurred with a favourable wind direction.

24th January 2021 - a streamer set up over the northeast Dublin coast with Balbriggan to Clontarf all covered.

8th/9th December 2022 - widespread covering of snow over south and west Dublin. Too mild and poor fetch for the north side.

10th March 2023 - there was a widespread light covering over the county in the early hours as the low cleared eastward. Deep snow over the mountains.

There were a few dustings on 10th February 2020, 31st December 2020, 7th January 2021, 7th January 2022 and 24th February 2022. Late January/early February 2019 was also big for the mountains.

In Dublin 5, 24th January 2021 is the only notable one since the BFTE. That was also the only day I've had at least a cm since then and I've not had lying snow since in D13.

DellyBelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121732888#Comment_121732888

No we have been very fortunate in fairness in Dublin since "The Beast from the East". As you say we did seem to get lot more snow years ago but luckily it is now a very rare thing here...

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121733207#Comment_121733207

Fortunate? What about unfortunate? Christ let's have our winters die a complete death altogether.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121733207#Comment_121733207

it makes me uneasy that the climate seems to be changing rather quickly.

Anyway, we can all look forward to getting pelted by freezing rain on the way to work tomorrow it seems!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121732888#Comment_121732888

Most parts of Leinster havent seen lying snow since 2018 apart from a few temporary frost like dustings. This will probably be another snowless winter and the wait goes on. Certainly here in Meath theres been basically nothing since 2018 and this winter is my final winter for wishing for snow. I've given up at this stage.

highdef

I might be heading from Dublin to Longford late tonight so will have an idea as to how widespread the snow may be. I might take a spin to corn hill, if I have the time. That hill is close 300m ASL.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121733326#Comment_121733326

1992 to 1999 was practically snowless in the East and south,was that climate change too ?

Tomorrow's event has occurred many times in the last 30 years and described as rain preceded by snow

None of this yellow warning nonsense or hoo ha about it

miamee

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121732789#Comment_121732789

ME was showing snow on Thursday morning here followed by the snow and rain symbol for the rest of the day (East Sligo). It's now just snow mixed with rain, i.e. sleet/sh!te. It might look nice out the window for a while but it won't stick.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121733414#Comment_121733414

well, as i was saying, growing up in the 90s it seemed like we'd get lying snow at least once every winter that we could play with and make snowmen, i don't have stats to back that up though. given january 2024 is looking like the warmest on record globally, maybe the lack of snow and cold is down to climate change in ireland though.

Donegal Ken

🟡STATUS YELLOW - SNOW-ICE WARNING FOR CAVAN, DONEGAL, MONAGHAN, LEITRIM, MAYO, ROSCOMMON, SLIGO, LONGFORD

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Sleet and snow leading to accumulations, most significant on higher ground.

Impacts:

• Hazardous travelling conditions

• Poor visibility

• Ice on untreated surfaces

Valid: 05:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 20:00 Thursday 08/02/2024

Issued: 11:01 Wednesday 07/02/2024

🟡STATUS YELLOW - SNOW-ICE WARNING FOR CLARE, TIPPERARY, GALWAY, LAOIS, OFFALY, WESTMEATH, WICKLOW

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Sleet and snow for a time leading to some accumulations, most significant on higher ground.

Impacts:

• Hazardous travelling conditions

• Poor visibility

• Ice on untreated surfaces

Valid: 03:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 13:00 Thursday 08/02/2024

Issued: 10:58 Wednesday 07/02/2024

🟡STATUS YELLOW - RAIN WARNING FOR CARLOW, DUBLIN, KILDARE, LOUTH, MEATH, WEXFORD, WICKLOW

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Rain and sleet coupled with blustery easterly winds.

Possible impacts:

• Localised flooding

Valid: 05:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 05:00 Friday 09/02/2024

Issued: 11:06 Wednesday 07/02/2024

🟡YELLOW - SNOW WARNING FOR ANTRIM, ARMAGH, DOWN, FERMANAGH, TYRONE, DERRY

UK Met Office Weather Warning 

A band of rain, sleet and snow will bring some travel disruption for parts of Northern Ireland through Thursday and into Friday

Valid: 10:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 06:00 Friday 09/02/2024

Issued: 09:46 Wednesday 07/02/2024

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121733527#Comment_121733527

That seems to be at odds with M.T. Cranium's thoughts. This could have been an epic event. What a shame it will be a snow to rain event with any lying snow washed away quickly.

.Donegal.

Tomorrow

Thursday will begin cloudy and breezy with outbreaks or rain, sleet and snow. Moderate accumulations are possible, especially across the north, west and north midlands with a light dusting possible elsewhere. Wintry falls will persist across the north with sunny spells and showers developing elsewhere. More general rain will arrive into southern countries later. Cold with an added wind chill factor owing to a fresh to strong and gusty easterly wind. Highest temperatures of 2 to 6 degrees generally; somewhat milder however across southern counties with highest temperature of 7 to 11 degrees.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121733414#Comment_121733414

Additionally, while we haven't had snow, in my area (within 5km of the south coast and very much in Cork surburbia) I've had about 8-10 frosts so far this winter. I've often had no frosts all winter. We haven't had any snow (bar some wet flakes mixed with rain overnight in the second week of January) but its been cold at times, markedly so for the third week in January.

I remember getting a frost in early November 2008 and thinking it was the first frost we'd seen in a few years. And as Pureza says, there wasn't a flake for several years at a time at various times in the nineties and noughties (Xmas 2004 to Jan 2010 in this neck of the woods). So I'm not sure this particular winter (that has delivered for the NW already, and may deliver for them in the coming days) is necessarily a poster boy for climate change.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121733414#Comment_121733414

I fully believe our winters started to change in the late 80s, generally speaking.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121733800#Comment_121733800

Yes, it's true we had snowless winters before, but what's different now is the stronger influence of the Iberian High, which has acted as a spoiler for much of this winter. The warmer sea temperatures too. With the same synoptic set up in the past I think this winter would have delivered snow more widely

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121733433#Comment_121733433

You didn't get lying snow most years in the 90's

Certainly not in the East,southeast or South

Jan 24 like last Summer is 'the warmest globally' because the copernicus satellite says so

It's not comparing like with like as there was a dearth of weather stations in the 90s and earlier compared to now and certainly no copernicus

Call me a sceptic,yes but I'm just not buying the hype

I am buying the good idea that using more solar,wind etc and generally reducing all the filth going into our atmosphere is though