Wed, Thu, Fri - Potential Snow event

Kermit.de.frog

Folks,

Looks like some, if not most, may get some appreciable snowfall during the middle and end of the coming week.

The actual extent is uncertain as it always is but what is certain is that some frontal zones will be pushing up from the south ready for combat with colder air to the north of this system mid week with rain turning to snow as it moves up over country.

There is plenty of speculation, fear mongering and disappointment potential with this one and this seems like a good place for it.😆

Myself, I'm convinced it's more than likely somewhere will be seeing some disruption here. How widespread might that be? Most likely Ulster, North Leinster and Connaught but really everywhere has a risk of sleet and snowfall.

An interesting couple of days ahead tracking this I think.

For snow fans the further south the centre of this system tracks the more of the country gets roped in to areas at risk.

Reckless Abandonment

At last..

nacho libre

At least if this is a bust we won't have chased it for weeks only to be let down. Let's hope it doesn't keep correcting south so that in the end everyone misses out. I would love a heavy fall of snow with dinner plate flakes .

dacogawa

Get ready for "Will it snow in my garden"

The snow bunnies will come...

fritzelly

Are you saying 2019 again, let it snow!

lawred2

Haven't seen any forecast mention this.. has the chances of this developed only very recently?

Neddyusa

I haven't even looked at a chart, but the fact that there hasn't been hundreds of posts of coloured charts from 15 days out, tells me this is infinitely more likely to materialise than the usual FI stuff.

littlema

BBC weather after the 10 o'clock news tonight showed snow cover for the country north of a Galway/Dublin line. He didn't expand on the prospects, just said to keep an eye on the forecast for snow!!!

FastFullBack

Cork snow shield is alive and well...

Cluedo Monopoly

We need the Wolf to believe too!

.Donegal.

Aperge better for the south

2am Thursday

6pm Thursday

WolfeEire

Regarding snow risk areas, it looks like a high ground affair largely based on the mean of all current output. The highest peaks in the south may see snow and higher ground in the northern half of Ireland, perhaps down to lower levels in northern counties. Worth keeping an eye on as it could upgrade. The tracks of Atlantic lows are rarely nailed on 3-4 days out.

18z ECMWF shows only 3-4 of the 53 members with our south coast above the boundary line. Our northern coastline is above the boundary in the vast majority.

Rebelbrowser

Certainly, just going on 850 hpa temps, some difference this morning between GFS and UKMO. UKMO showing what we want.

What uppers are needed here? Appreciate heavy precipitation can overcome milder uppers to some extent....

Condor24

Rain sleet, and snow over the mountains is Met Eireanns call. Don't get excited. There's nothing worse than icy rain and a strong northeast wind. We can't catch a break this winter I'm afraid.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121722927#Comment_121722927

I can only assume that the UKMO has updated since as it doesn't show any lying snow for non mountain summit dwellers.

P.lane78

I have a flight going out on Friday...will I make it 😀😀😀

highdef

Almost certainly, based on the current models. Aerphort Dhún Na nGall and Knock are the only two airports that spring to mind that could have disruptive snow in the ROI, based on the various weather models at hand at this moment in time

SpitfireIV

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121722348#Comment_121722348

Here we go! There might be snow on the most norderly tip of the country and you'll still get the Corkonians saying 'that's the cork snow shield!' 😂 You shoulda been in Carlow town and environs during the BFTE and you'd know what a snow shield was 😢

.Donegal.

Aperge further north

ECM further South

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121723476#Comment_121723476

I was just going on uppers tbh, didn't look at precipitation - in fact I don't think you get charts like that on meteociel which is what I use

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121723537#Comment_121723537

To be honest this dates back to about 2009 when Cork hadn't seen a flake since 2004 and there were snow events in Feb and Dec 2009 where it snowed widely but not in Cork. The phrase got used a lot around here then. It snowed here in Jan 2010 and plenty (relatively!) since, so the phrase should have been retired then. Given how southerly (again, relatively) Cork is, we do ok (by Irelands awful standards!) for snow as we can get snow from North Westerlies and Easterlies / South Easterlies. Northerlies and North Easterlies (we might get streamers off a ENE direction) are no good though- save we are probably the coldest part of the country in such set ups due to the land fetch.

nacho libre

Yes , the Met Eireann forecast isn't great, rain and sleet with snow on high ground. It could be a decent event for the usual places higher up.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121722954#Comment_121722954

We usually miss out in these situations. I remember over 10 year years ago we had nearly 36 hours of rain and sleet. At first I thought it will turn to snow at some point, but no it didn't. John Eagleton at the time said a one degree temperature drop could have been the difference between a disruptive snow event instead of what we had.

WolfeEire

High ground in the northern half of the island still most at risk based on the average of all output. That line will drop south and further north with each run on every model between now and Wednesday. The lack of nudging heights to the north means a slider event is unlikely. Instead, we end up with a transient, snow to sleet event even for the north. Lots to resolve between now and then either way.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121723850#Comment_121723850

I have never ever heard Met E forecast snow until it’s actually falling, wintry showers is all you’ll get out of them a few days in advance. Not having a go at them as snow is almost impossible to forecast here away from mountains.

I remember two days of rain and sleet at the end of Dec 2009, it was a big disappointment, so near and yet so far but it was the beginning of a decent cold cold spell.

Maybe next week?

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121723631#Comment_121723631

Latest Aperge. More areas seeing snow fall than the previous run.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121724172#Comment_121724172

Thursday/Friday's setup is looking very similar to March 9th/10th last year, where high ground areas of the west and north saw a dumping of snow. I ended up with a dumping of snow over 2 days. The precipitation rate and 850s spread for this event are almost identical. The only difference is that heights to the north were greater and the low went E across Ireland and Britain as opposed to the ENE trajectory of this week's system.

WolfeEire

THE JMA 06z would bring snowfall to Ulster and north Connacht and on higher ground a little further south.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121724224#Comment_121724224

West Mayo had heavy snow for hours from that , while further east we had hours of cold rain. It was unusual because Wesport would usually have the rain while places further inland would have the snow.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121724224#Comment_121724224

I was away for that but think it was an orange warning.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121724319#Comment_121724319

Match 9th 2023 was the ultimate example of fine lines with snowfall in this country. It rained below 200ft asl in Clare but most locations above that had 36-48 hours of snow. The Arome & Arpege were spot on for my location. The below shows what can happen in marginal events so @Kermit.de.frog is correct. Somewhere north of that boundary line will experience heavy snow should that boundary line be south of our north coast obviously!

Kermit.de.frog

ICON model giving some significant snowfall to Connaught, parts of Ulster and extending in to Leinster on Thursday with a track for the occlusion that is close to perfection if you want snow. Nothing nailed yet but not even 70 hours out. A real risk of disruption for some (further north and west the more likely) Keep an eye on the forecasts

WolfeEire

The 12z GFS drops the boundary line a good deal further south and is similar to the ICON. Overall, the LP system is a little flatter. GFS has a propensity to drop Atlantic lows further south as the event draws nearer so this is not a surprise. GFS shows a snow to sleet event away from inland Ulster and north Connacht.

Kermit.de.frog

A definite upgrade on the GFS. Close to something that could be disruptive for a chunk of the country on Thursday.

It's very fine margins. All about the track. A nudge north or south determining the haves and have-nots.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121724622#Comment_121724622

GEM looks like it's dropping that boundary line further south too

Kermit.de.frog

It's slightly further south but not quite there for most. The north and north west would do well though.

.Donegal.

Met office text update for the north sounds good for those south of Ulster as I don’t think they currently see that front making much inroads further north.

Mainly dry and cold on Wednesday, chance of a wintry shower. Cold and mainly dry on Thursday and Friday, with a small chance of sleet and snow Thursday.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121724706#Comment_121724706

Fine margins on the GEFS. There is a 13c degree scatter on the 850 ensembles for three days time!

JanuarySnowstor

So as is quite often the case we have a meeting of minds between the gfs and ukmo. The ukmo is significantly milder than its morning run with the proper cold barely clinging to the North Coast!! The gfs does go for some transient snow for the North Midlands. Could well be disruptive but will wash away 6 hours later. Ukmo for reference

In the meantime the clock ticks to see can we do anything better as February goes on

Larbre34

Really not seeing much from this. The high ground of the northern coastal counties could see some disruptive wet show, the likes of your Glenshane passes. But just cold rain and a pretty miserable fresh to strong breeze for the rest of the island.

.Donegal.

Big upgrade from UKMO .

Previous below

pauldry

Still a lot of areas will see brief lying snow this week but much of it on high ground. A few hours at lower levels. Even tomorrow some back edge snow possible at the end of the 25mm of rain.

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121725208#Comment_121725208

You would wonder will the Met Office UK issue a early warning for Northern Ireland based on that run. That's a big upgrade.

Donegal Ken

Ecmwf 12z run is further north also.

Ros4Sam24

Ecm is lovely

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121725305#Comment_121725305

If it’s similar to that they would as they issued one today for England and wales based off this mornings run.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121725321#Comment_121725321

Perhaps where you live, it's nudged everything further North, basically a line from Sligo to Louth will do very well. For the rest of the country the window is closing

WolfeEire

ECM. Deja vu re: March 9th 2023

nacho libre

The change in weather after all the mild weather will be a bit of a shock to the system. The ECM looks good for many away from the south. Hopefully now it comes off. No more further movements north, but without blocking that's always a risk

Kermit.de.frog

Leaning toward more a short lived "event" for some away from parts of the northwest and north. Still time for adjustments either way though. First thing Thursday morning disruptive for some.

Niall145

From a purely Dublin perspective what's likely to be the minimum altitude for proper lying snow on Thursday? Obvs anywhere 200m up should be a winter wonderland...

Rebelbrowser

Towards the last frames the bigger risk from the ECM for 10 day's time is sun burn...

All joking aside, I wonder could some of the more knowledgeable posters here explain why we (well ye - most of the Country North of South Munster!) have this snow risk this week when the temps and uppers look fairly unexciting? Is it the intensity of precipitation meaning you can get snow at not hugely cold uppers? I always struggle to understand these set ups....