Wed, Thu, Fri - Potential Snow event

WolfeEire

The 12z GFS drops the boundary line a good deal further south and is similar to the ICON. Overall, the LP system is a little flatter. GFS has a propensity to drop Atlantic lows further south as the event draws nearer so this is not a surprise. GFS shows a snow to sleet event away from inland Ulster and north Connacht.

Kermit.de.frog

A definite upgrade on the GFS. Close to something that could be disruptive for a chunk of the country on Thursday.

It's very fine margins. All about the track. A nudge north or south determining the haves and have-nots.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121724622#Comment_121724622

GEM looks like it's dropping that boundary line further south too

Kermit.de.frog

It's slightly further south but not quite there for most. The north and north west would do well though.

.Donegal.

Met office text update for the north sounds good for those south of Ulster as I don’t think they currently see that front making much inroads further north.

Mainly dry and cold on Wednesday, chance of a wintry shower. Cold and mainly dry on Thursday and Friday, with a small chance of sleet and snow Thursday.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121724706#Comment_121724706

Fine margins on the GEFS. There is a 13c degree scatter on the 850 ensembles for three days time!

JanuarySnowstor

So as is quite often the case we have a meeting of minds between the gfs and ukmo. The ukmo is significantly milder than its morning run with the proper cold barely clinging to the North Coast!! The gfs does go for some transient snow for the North Midlands. Could well be disruptive but will wash away 6 hours later. Ukmo for reference

In the meantime the clock ticks to see can we do anything better as February goes on

Larbre34

Really not seeing much from this. The high ground of the northern coastal counties could see some disruptive wet show, the likes of your Glenshane passes. But just cold rain and a pretty miserable fresh to strong breeze for the rest of the island.

.Donegal.

Big upgrade from UKMO .

Previous below

pauldry

Still a lot of areas will see brief lying snow this week but much of it on high ground. A few hours at lower levels. Even tomorrow some back edge snow possible at the end of the 25mm of rain.

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121725208#Comment_121725208

You would wonder will the Met Office UK issue a early warning for Northern Ireland based on that run. That's a big upgrade.

Donegal Ken

Ecmwf 12z run is further north also.

Ros4Sam24

Ecm is lovely

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121725305#Comment_121725305

If it’s similar to that they would as they issued one today for England and wales based off this mornings run.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121725321#Comment_121725321

Perhaps where you live, it's nudged everything further North, basically a line from Sligo to Louth will do very well. For the rest of the country the window is closing

WolfeEire

ECM. Deja vu re: March 9th 2023

nacho libre

The change in weather after all the mild weather will be a bit of a shock to the system. The ECM looks good for many away from the south. Hopefully now it comes off. No more further movements north, but without blocking that's always a risk

Kermit.de.frog

Leaning toward more a short lived "event" for some away from parts of the northwest and north. Still time for adjustments either way though. First thing Thursday morning disruptive for some.

Niall145

From a purely Dublin perspective what's likely to be the minimum altitude for proper lying snow on Thursday? Obvs anywhere 200m up should be a winter wonderland...

Rebelbrowser

Towards the last frames the bigger risk from the ECM for 10 day's time is sun burn...

All joking aside, I wonder could some of the more knowledgeable posters here explain why we (well ye - most of the Country North of South Munster!) have this snow risk this week when the temps and uppers look fairly unexciting? Is it the intensity of precipitation meaning you can get snow at not hugely cold uppers? I always struggle to understand these set ups....

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121726091#Comment_121726091

With the wind forecast to have an easterly aspect and temperatures not being especially cold, 200m being the snowline is extremely optimistic, in my own opinion. 400/500m seems more realistic and even at that, I myself am being optimistic.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121726144#Comment_121726144

I have not had the time to look at it but I'd imagine thicknesses

Basically the air temperatures in the air moving S and SW over the country are likely to be sufficiently cold all the way down to near the surface

If its only -3c at 5000ft (850 level) for example and still zero Celsius at 1000ft,you could have snow falling on ground above 600ft and on lower ground in the immediate vicinity of that high ground

That wouldn't be the case in or near the low pressure, it's too warm but the action starts where the precipitation meets that 5000ft to 1000ft zero or below air

The clashing airmasses make heavy precipitation so it's going to be a pasting or a drowning for some

Neddyusa

The fact that it's still very unclear is making me think some counties are going to go very white this Thursday.

I've said it countless times on these threads the best snowfalls are the marginal ones and they're almost never forecast more than 48 or 24 out, if at all.

JanuarySnowstor

Slide for slide, it's another jog North!! If this trend continues only the far North will see snow...almost every run in the last 24hours has been a fraction further North.....combined of course its actually quite a notable shift

.Donegal.

WRF at the end of the run snow pushing in to Ulster

squarecircles

18Z GFS

.Donegal.

Interesting gfs so far. Snow remains across the North and to a lesser extent across higher parts of west Connacht from Thursday until a fresh batch of snow occurs Sunday mostly over Ulster and Leinster. Quick half asleep look. Here’s Sunday evening.

M.T. Cranium

Disruptive snow seems most likely in Ulster, Connacht, Clare and Tipps, as well as higher portions of the inland southeast.

It's a forecaster's nightmare scenario of marginal uppers, and abundant moisture, persisting for days and slowly shifting around as low pressure attacks from the south and later from the east.

Taking a blended approach rather than riding any one model, I would say there is just enough cold air in place to suggest persistent snowfall over the regions I outlined, and sleet or a cold rain in areas further east or south, but would not be at all surprised if this has intervals where it shifts in either direction, so in other words, nobody should let their guard down as far as snow potential, and even so, some if not all are at risk of being disappointed as far as total snow amounts go.

The median of probabilities at this point (which is relatively short-range) is 5 to 15 cm (locally 25) of lying snow in areas roughly west of an arc running from s.central mountain ranges n.n.e. into Westmeath and then n.e. to Down. Coastal west could see a lot of mixing so that snow would only be lying on higher parts of coastal towns and most of the interior. Some possibility exists for actual rain-snow line to be further east t an my "median" suggestion, i.e., central Waterford into southeastern uplands and Dublin west suburban areas into most of meath except coastal strip. Would say it's a 1 in 4 risk at present.

Dublin is particularly problematic, could see arguments for some snow at times, but probably a lot of sleet and cold rain, with snow piling up on hills to south. Least likely to see snow would be Waterford-Wexford. A lot of mixed falls in parts of west munster also, except coastal environs, so including higher parts of Cork city and larger portions of inland Cork.

Outlooks could change with just slight deviations in guidance. This does not have the certainty of 2018 but it does not look like a dangerous probable bust situation either. I would also be concerned about heavy rainfall potential in lower parts of south and east not seeing much snowfall.

In shorter term, watch cold front moving south today for squall line tendencies. Could become a gusty frontal outflow situation. Some sleet on colder flanks but will clear out before it can dump much snow on hills, I think.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121726144#Comment_121726144

Amazing how different the ECM is at day 9 and 10 to what I posted above not 12 hours ago, double digit difference in temps. Just shows that the forecast even this week can be wrong and it could be the crucial few degrees colder for all of us yet

SouthWesterly

The big question is, will I have to walk up my hill for the 2nd time this year?

Will my car get stuck on it like the last snow or can can I drive up to my house?

The important issues of life !😀

North Kerry