Wed, Thu, Fri - Potential Snow event

Donegal Ken

Met Office UK have now issued a warning for Northern Ireland.

Yellow - Snow Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry

UK Met Office Weather Warning

A period of snowfall could bring some disruption on Thursday and into Friday morning.

Valid: 06:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 06:00 Friday 09/02/2024

Issued: 08:52 Tuesday 06/02/2024

dsmythy

Met Eireann playing it cool for now. Key phrases 'snow mostly on hills' and 'sleet'.

I see the UK Met Office are not messing around with their area of forecast though. Early warning up.

Chris_5339762

I can't see too much coming out of this to be honest. Rain always ends up further north and earlier than forecast. The GFS always vastly overestimates snow. Met Eireann is showing mostly rain and a LOT of it, which will likely wash anything away that falls as snow earlier in the day.

Its really marginal, but I'm leaning on the side of hill snow only here and a disgusting day of rain for the rest of us.

Which is good, cos I need to drive Cork - Belfast on the Friday.

pad199207

Meh…

Supercell

Can see the Wicklow mountains getting plastered by this above about 100 meters, here in coastal Dublin, sleety rain at best.

Gonzo

This was never going to be any other way, I never bought into this at all as all the models clearly showed uppers not cold enough and mild air and warm sectors all over the place. This will be a cold rain/sleety event for most of Ireland away from high ground above 400 meters.

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121728262#Comment_121728262

I’d say 100meters wouldn’t be enough either.

almostthere12

I don't think I have ever seen a setup like this give snow to south of north Cork as the cold isn't embedded beforehand. I remember back in the early 90's there was a similar setup and ME were ramping it a bit and basically saying the whole of the country was in for snow, maybe it was because it was a night time event, I was curtain twitching until 9pm when the rain started to fall, very deflating as a young fella.......of course there was heavy snow from Tipp north!

I was hoping that Saturday might bring some snow as the low moved away and colder uppers swept in from the north but now that is gone on most models as the low heads on a northeast path and so the cold required doesn't sweep down.

Hopefully a few of ye will see some white gold and wake up to blizzards on Thursday morning.........I'm just hoping an easterly can set up before February is out.

WolfeEire

The 06z high res Arome model brings a messy mix of rain, sleet and snow into southern counties tomorrow evening. Snow is indicated for hills and mountains and to lower levels at times as the system pushes north into colder air. The boundary is further south on this run. 

By Saturday, the Arpege snow cover chart is like a near perfect heatmap of Ireland's mountain topography. Some low lying areas of inland Connacht and Munster also seeing lying snow. Tricky forecasting period ahead.

Billcarson

Pity the whole system wouldn't just fcuk off well to our south and leave us alone. Scrapping the bottom of the winter barrel. Maybe I'll see a few wet flakes mixed in with the sleety rain lol.

donal.hunt

Not expecting any snow here near Cork City (ASL ~ 130m). Macgillycuddys Reeks should see some snow though based on the NRK tracker I use - aligns with what others are saying about this being an upper elevations event.

The projections have changed though over the past few days with forecast now showing warmer temperatures for the reeks over the upcoming weekend (previous -6°C is now showing +2°C).

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121728509#Comment_121728509

Yeah same feelings as yourself. Just want a clean easterly with snow showers piling into the east none of this messy mix with mainly rain and sleet soaking the ground and grass.

Larbre34

I think the UKMO warning for all of NI is a tad previous.

They may see some claggy wet snow , inland, overnight into Friday, but I still don't see it as a significant fall below 250m.

squarecircles

Despite people pissing all over the snow potential (mostly people in the pale and south leinster) heres the snow warning , YAY SNOW!

Status Yellow - Snow-Ice warning for Cavan, Monaghan, Connacht

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• A band of rain will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on Thursday.
• 
  
• Impacts
• 
  
• . Ice on untreated surfaces
• 
  
• . Hazardous driving conditions
• 
  
• . Travel disruption
• 
  
• . Poor visibility
• Valid: 02:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 18:00 Thursday 08/02/2024
• Issued: 14:05 Tuesday 06/02/2024
• 
  

Status Yellow - Snow-Ice warning for Donegal

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• A band of rain will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on Thursday.
• 
  
• Impacts
• 
  
• . Ice on untreated surfaces
• 
  
• . Hazardous driving conditions
• 
  
• . Travel disruption
• 
  
• . Poor visibility
• Valid: 11:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 20:00 Thursday 08/02/2024
• Issued: 14:10 Tuesday 06/02/2024

Donegal Ken

Status Yellow - Snow-Ice warning for Cavan, Monaghan, Connacht

Met Éireann Weather Warning

A band of rain will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on Thursday.

Impacts

. Ice on untreated surfaces

. Hazardous driving conditions

. Travel disruption

. Poor visibility

Valid: 02:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 18:00 Thursday 08/02/2024

Issued: 14:05 Tuesday 06/02/2024

Status Yellow - Snow-Ice warning for Donegal

Met Éireann Weather Warning

A band of rain will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on Thursday.

Impacts

. Ice on untreated surfaces

. Hazardous driving conditions

. Travel disruption

. Poor visibility

Valid: 11:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 20:00 Thursday 08/02/2024

Issued: 14:10 Tuesday 06/02/2024

Yellow - Snow Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry

UK Met Office Weather Warning

A period of snowfall could bring some disruption on Thursday and into Friday morning.

Valid: 06:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 06:00 Friday 09/02/2024

Issued: 08:52 Tuesday 06/02/2024

WolfeEire

The ICON 12z looks 'marginal' for snowfall. However, heavy snow can occur in less cold air (850s of -2c or even higher) at this time of year. In frontal setups, favourable dewpoints and lapse rates, combined with evaporative cooling, can often produce heavy snow. The risk area identified by Met Eireann is correct.

pauldry

One thing is if this is an Easterly set up the snow won't be the slushy type in the West. However the other is most of the heavy stuff will fall further South of Sligo. I'd expect some areas of inland Connaught to get quite a bit. I don't think it's going to rain much here. Mainly sleet and snow.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121729988#Comment_121729988

remind me very much of March 9th last year although we had nudging heights to our north that time which prevented the system from tracking too far north. it was incredibly marginal then too but I experienced my heaviest snow since Feb 18. Somewhere is going to get a pasting for sure and you're prob right about inland Connacht.

squarecircles

Nice cold off shore land breeze from the north east on Thursday, hopefully this limits Atlantic interference and snow will fall on the immediate coast in the west.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121730109#Comment_121730109

GFS. It really is a nowcast. It's so borderline! Arpege below

The arome on Thursday morn

Rebelbrowser

All the precipitation models are very alike in their forecast given its being described as such a complicated set up. Usually there'd be a big more of a scatter of options...

WolfeEire

The UKV

A difficult morning commute for some on Thursday. It really is a mixed bag of precipitation.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121728263#Comment_121728263

I think there will be snow on lower ground in North Munster and inland Connacht. It's just a pity there is no real blocking in place to shunt the low pressure south east. It would ensure an all snow event and proper cold coming in behind the system. We now seem to be looking towards the last 8 days of February for a proper cold spell. If we get one at all.

pureza

A Snow to Rain event basically

WolfeEire

Looking at the models trying to assess snowrisk for Ireland during winter is like...

Cluedo Monopoly

Croagh Patrick forecasted to get 13cm of snow on Wednesday night but nothing but rain in Kerry.

Croagh Patrick Weather Forecast (764m) (mountain-forecast.com)

JCX BXC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121730918#Comment_121730918

If the winds are offshore to that extent, what would cause warming at the coasts to make the snow inland turn to rain on the coast?

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121731309#Comment_121731309

I think any snow will turn to rain every where lower down, not just by the coasts due to the shape of the low and its track. A bowling ball type of low means more mixing out and things probably going the wrong side of marginal

pauldry

Ya though this event will bring brief snow to some and the end of February spell looks promising its getting too late now and the cold will just be annoying. March looks quite cold on current CFS output with quite a few cold rain sleet spells. All could flip but currently looks like we will see a lot of cool spells and few mild spells all the way to April.

tom1ie

Right so I’m in the middle of getting a patio laid in the south Dublin area since late last week- what’s the chances of the rain fcuking off tomorrow?

Am I then looking at rain moving on tomorrow evening and it potentially turning to sleet snow for Thursday?

This winter is horrendous so far- ground is fcuked.