FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120857927#Comment_120857927

So do many many summers, doesn't not make them terrible ones. Even some of the worst summers have fine weather unlike mild winters with snow days. Anyway, back to FI charts..

It goes on and on.

Gonzo

Temperatures are now set to remain firmly below average for the remainder of the month, although the final week of July may not be as cool as the coming week. Alot of rain expected on Monday night into Tuesday, this deluge shows up nicely on the ensemble graph. Wednesday to Thursday look a bit dryer and then another possible wet weekend to come. Following week looks unsettled from start to finish as well with no end in sight to the unsettled conditions as we head into the first week of August.

Gonzo

This weekend has been absolutely atrocious, a 3 day deluge. The coming working week will be unsettled especially Tuesday. Next weekend is starting to look like a possible repeat of this weekend with another dartboard low sitting over Ireland for several days which could deliver alot of rain.

Next Sunday is looking particularly wet and cool.

This dartboard low just sits over Ireland for days on end, this could be a real flood maker.

It could still be with us on the Tuesday with stiff winds howling down from the north as the low very slowly moves to our east.

Wednesday 26th and another low with yet more rain sweeps in, there really is no end to this.

If these charts verify next weekend into the first half of the following week could be worse than this weekends awful conditions. This is one to watch as flooding could become a real issue over the next 10 days. Temperatures over this period could run up to 3c below average or more especially during rainfall with daytime temperatures struggling to get past 13c in places. It is entirely possible that many parts of Ireland could experience another 50 to 100mm of rainfall over the next 10 days.

Billcarson

The 26th looks on the cool side for much of western Europe. Subject to change at that range of course.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120860271#Comment_120860271

What a disgusting chart. Let’s all hope that does not verify. Can things get any worse?!

JanuarySnowstor

We really do seem stuck in a rinse & repeat of low pressure. July almost certainly a right off with as Gonzo said flooding becoming an issue. If anything the charts are upgrading the unsettled theme for next weekend.

Woeful Summer weather. Having said that who would want the heat going on in the med. 40C plus is just too hot

.Donegal.

Bit wet

DarkJager21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120860573#Comment_120860573

I'd swap with them in a heartbeat - would happily leave a few doggy treats out for Cerberus if it would just come up and drive this filth away from us.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120861531#Comment_120861531

The extremes suit nobody. The extreme heat in Greece/Italy would be truly awful here, trying to go about your daily life, work etc.

Much like the extreme $hite we have here is truly awful trying to go about daily life, like playing sports outdoors etc.

Let's just all agree that extremes suck and we all want to live in the middle.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120860944#Comment_120860944

Considerably drier in the north on this run.

Storm 10

On Sky today they are reporting that the UK Met says there will be no good weather until at least the middle of August if at all.

ascophyllum

Re. the models; it was mentioned here that the long range ECM had forecast a very settled July but obviously it turned out to be the opposite. As these models are what 20-30 years old? maybe running at their incredible computational capacity for maybe 10 years or so? I know they incorporate historical data but they may find it hard to deal with the few anomalous events this year like the Tonga volcano, the Canadian wildfires and the elevated SST in Northern Europe. You'd have to imagine that with another 10 years or so of data they will become incredibly accurate at a month or two out.

But for now all the major ones show almost now way out of constant low pressures for the rest of July 😬

pauldry

Without even looking at computer models you'd imagine this nonstop rain train will run our of gas by sometime in August. Could be late though like 20th. But I've rarely seen even in the horrid Summers rain all of July August and September.

mcburns07

Yeah and in recent years the pattern seems to be a lot of rain then no rain flipping from on extreme to the other.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862567#Comment_120862567

Yes I think we will see some sort of an improvement in mid to late August, it can't stay as bad as things are right now indefinitely for the rest of the summer. We may even get lucky and get a fine spell of weather final week of August leading into September, classic summery weather the week the schools reopen etc. A book ended summer.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120863892#Comment_120863892

I've lived through nearly 50 years of Summers and I can remember several identical to this one. Indeed during the 90s the likes of Wimbledon facing daily weather disruptions was quite regular. So for me this Summer is quite normal as disappointing as that is. Indeed I remember going to school 35 years ago and they were wondering would they stay shut early Sept because the weather improved. Not trying to give a smart reply just recalling what I remember

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Can we get back on topic. Thanks.

pauldry

Even though it remains unsettled for the coming 2 weeks thank God we don't have that 40c stuff of Southern Europe. But by luck more than design and it creeps further North every year. If the June heat had continued into July we'd hv got 32c to 35c but I'll gladly take today's pleasant 17c over the 40c. Even 30c in Ireland is so humid.

Just looking at some long range charts and the end of July may be warm for a day or 2.

mr.stonewall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120864539#Comment_120864539

The trend is popping up toward the end of the past few runs of the GFS

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120864619#Comment_120864619

18z best run yet of that, clutching at straws at the moment though and I will not hold my breath at all for it to come true (watch it vanish when I wake up). Pleasant warmth

WolfeEire

GFS pressure mean sadly not providing much support for tonight's beauty FI chart (below). That's said, the Jetstream is a lot more wavy on the mean compared to 48 hours ago indicating (at worst) some 1-2 day spells of drier weather in between frontal systems, akin to what we will have this week (rain tomorrow, dry wed and Thur, rain Friday etc). The latter would be more typical of an Irish summer compared to recent weeks.

Gonzo

I would be very cautious about the 18z run, only a few days ago the GFS hinted at nice weather in the final week of July and it got very quickly put back into it's box, now it's back again only this time almost a week later. This will likely get dropped again and reappear again at a later date, probably for mid August or final week. This current weather pattern will take some time to run out of steam as there is a lot of energy to it.

glightning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862750#Comment_120862750

You can be sure it will be around the 21st August as that's when my holiday in Turkey is. Pure crap until then. And then all my relatives at home will be posting on Facebook, etc about the sun and heat at home. Guaranteed!

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862750#Comment_120862750

agree, the St Swithin legend in a nutshell.

I laughed when I saw this, just when you think it can’t get any worse …. I think our Southern European friends would prefer 40c+ to this s***e any day!

nacho libre

I think we will have to wait till the middle or the end of August for a sustained settled spell.

Gonzo

Yesterdays GFS hints at things settling down around the 30th of July to the 2nd of August are of course gone again and it looks relatively unsettled as far as FI goes up to the 3rd of August. Hints of things settling down are constantly being pushed back further just like cold weather in the winter. For now the next 2 days looks like our best chance of some dryness at times but there will still be showers around. From the weekend onwards looks very unsettled once again and mostly cool.

esposito

Ugh 😑 so sick of the unsettled weather. At this rate it will be September when our summer returns.

mcburns07

Would it be fair to say that if this pattern continues for us then so will the heat in Europe?

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120868906#Comment_120868906

Above 2pm today

Day 5

Day 7

Day 10. No end in sight for some.

pauldry

The "good" thing about climate change is our Summer could be any of the months now. June and September are the favorites presently but August might sneak in a bit however July's dead duck.