FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Meteorite58

Since +120hrs is in June, time to open the FI summer 2023 thread.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Spring 2023.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HP doing even better on latest runs sticking close by out to +240hrs at least being the main consensus from the models. Good levels of warmth. GFS way out in FI showing much cooler weather but too far away, for now just a side note. ECM about the best and looks like a good blocking High.

Bank Holiday weekend looks like getting into the 20's over a wide part of the country, highest further W where it could get up around the mid 20's, might have cooler onshore breezes on Eastern and Northern coastal areas. Staying incredibly dry, maybe too dry at this stage for the good of the land and nature.

zisdead

Looks like that Mediterranean Summer type climate where the taps shut off in mid May something akin to Portland and Seattle has arrived a few years earlier than planned :)

Jock_Ewing

Redirected here from the other FI thread, that post from Pauldry on 27 May about the June weather prospects was probably the most negative weather post I've ever read on boards about weather weeks in advance!

It made Little Snowy Old Me's posts when it doesn't snow or a storm doesn't develop seem cheerful. Like Pauldry is from Sligo, pretty much enjoying the westerly sweet spot for the past week with another week, at least of beautiful weather to come. I just don't get that level of negativity.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120655133#Comment_120655133

Me either that post was extremely negative

Sammy2012

Could someone post some charts of what is currently showing for the week of the 12th?

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120656456#Comment_120656456

Is there any charts being posted anywhere? This is a serious spell of weather but this place seems very quiet?

Storm 10

When this breaks down will it be the usual Spanish Plume Thundetstorms

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120656456#Comment_120656456

A continuation of the dry warm theme

sryanbruen

I've been very busy with family and holidays that I have not had the time to update in past 2 weeks but as things have calmed down now, here is the latest thoughts I have based on current guidance.

Early to mid-May, drivers such as the MJO gave the heads up that we were likely to see a primarily high pressure dominated period during the second half of May. This has verified in more ways than one, it has been very dry for some with absolute drought conditions observed (at least 15 consecutive days <0.2mm rainfall). This is expected to continue for at least another week and there is the chance it will last even longer than that but I suspect we will see an easing of the anticyclone by that time with heights lowering from the south.

If we do see heights lowering from the south, we should see a push of renewed warmth from the continent and an increased risk of volatility i.e. storms. Sea surface temperatures around our shores remain above average and this will only aid. Until that happens though, high pressure and more high pressure day after day with variable sunshine and east to northeasterly winds on the eastern flank of the ridge which primarily resides to our NW. Cloud may come into the north and east at times but this can only be nowcast rather than forecast.

I anticipate that June will be a warm and mainly dry month with high pressure always being close by whether to our north or northeast as there is little sign to suggest dramatic changes to what we see now. Of course that could all change very quickly.

Gonzo

I think next week will be slightly warmer for the east, the easterly winds next week may have a slightly less northerly tilt to them and as we move into the summer the cooling effect from easterlies will start to gradually weaken.

Here is todays chart, as you can see the easterlies have an ever so slight northerly tilt to them.

The high pressure currently centered to our north-west is not a warm ridge as explained above, however this high pressure is forecasted to move south-eastwards over the next few days and become more centered over us for the weekend. This is most likely why the UKV etc is showing higher temperatures over the majority of the country for the weekend with 20 to 22C widely across the country for Saturday and Sunday, fingers crossed we get the sunshine along with it. The cool east to ENE flow will still remain over southern England, Wales and parts of Cork/Kerry.

Next week the high may begin to drift north again and move slightly more to our east. While this brings back the nagging easterly, it may have more of a southerly tilt to it compared to the cool northerly tilt we have today and tomorrow. This should mean while there will be an easterly cooling effect, it shouldn't be as severe as what we are currently experiencing.

The slight change in the tilt of an easterly wind direction north or south at this time of the year can greatly improve or decrease temperatures.

Into the depths of FI we do pull winds up from the south which will bring a boost in temperatures however of course this means things could turn more unsettled and more cloudy with low pressure forming fairly close to us.

This sort of setup would get eastern areas into the low 20s quite easily, certainly much warmer than what we are currently experiencing.

After that things look very slack with not much rainfall and generally very pleasant low to mid 20s across the country, so it's looking like the first half of June is going to be dominated by mostly dry weather and improving temperatures (especially in eastern regions).

Jock_Ewing

Was Ireland's longest drought a May event in Limerick iirc?

Gonzo

GFS 12z doubles down on the high pressurefest keeping it going and actually intensifying it further all the way out to +384 hours which takes us to June 16th. If this verified this would be a serious spell of dry and warm weather for western Ireland in particular where it looks like low 20s are going to keep going and going and going.

For the eastern half of Ireland temperatures will begin to stage a recovery and become quite warm at times but overall the west will always be warmer.

It just keeps going and going. 16 more days of low to mid twenties for the west with little to no rain and temperatures creeping up towards 20C or possibly slightly beyond for eastern areas. Of course none of this takes into account cloud cover other than things look remaining very settled well into the far depths of FI. Some other members are playing around with the idea of things turning more unsettled and warmer as we get a push of air up from the south into the second week of June.

The ensemble graph is basically dry from start to finish with only low level chances of some rain drops around mid June. Of course all this can change as anything past days 5 to 7 is in the unreliable timeframe.

Chris_5339762

12 days since any rain at my station in Cork, 16 days without any notable rain. Soil moisture down from a max of 45% to 18%. It got down to 14% last year, so we're actually nearly as dry as the heatwave in 2022 already.

mr.stonewall

The easterly wind is really driving SMDs down. It's dry air, coupled with serious sunshine it's unbelievable. Even the wind into the evening is remarkable

Heading in to drought here on the farm. Growth is getting restricted very quickly. a spot on the farm where I managed to get stuck with a tractor about 12 days ago is like concrete and dust blowing. I'm not complaining about it as we had tough winter and march april with rain

.Donegal.

The UK met office outlook until the 29th of June high pressure to dominate in the north. Risk of wet weather at times in the south although south of uk doesn’t necessarily mean south of Ireland will be impacted but as always confidence is very low in long range forecasts. Nonetheless it’s the driest outlook I have ever read for the North. Interesting to see how long this will go on for.

Jock_Ewing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120664478#Comment_120664478

I don't recall as rapid a drying out in a fortnight. Hilly land at home in Laois is drying too. A few weeks ago I was moving cattle through a water logged poached field.

Jock_Ewing

Ah yes, the longest drought in Ireland occurred in Limerick between 3 April 1938 and 10 May 1938 (37 days).

Chris_5339762

Soil moisture at my station in Cork throughout May. It really has dropped, its at 17% now. Got to 14% in the heatwave last year.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: just to remind that this is the +120hrs thread to discuss charts, trends and projected forecasts and impressions of what might be in store in the more unreliable time frame. Some great posts here but might be better suited to the summer thread or other dedicated threads.

Thanks

Gonzo

Just taking a look at the GFS to see what sort of weather might be in store for us over the next 2 weeks. We are currently in a very dry and relatively mild pattern. After a brief warm up over the bank holiday weekend temperatures will slide away a bit over the next few days as we bring in another nagging easterly, although this shouldn't be quite as chilly as last weeks easterly. Temperatures will fall back to about 16 or 17C in eastern areas while western areas will continue in the low 20s until about Wednesday.

From Thursday the uncertainty in the forecast increases but for now it looks like winds will become more south-easterly in direction while at the same time a low may begin to push in from the south-west introducing more in the way of cloudy conditions and some showers possible.

By Saturday the low could still be sitting just to our south-west as it will have a real fight on it's hands with high pressure very close to us which could turn things showery over the weekend and slightly cooler.

This change to slightly unsettled conditions looks very short lived however on this GFS run what happens next is a bit of a cold and unsettled outlier so great uncertainty with this. Winds go back into the east or north-east and an area of low pressure will try and push westwards turning things cooler everywhere.

Very few of the other GFS members are doing this and are considerably warmer than this chart. This cool spell doesn't last long and the Azores high is making a move with it's sights on the UK and Ireland.

This developes into a very nice ridge of high pressure brining plenty of warm temperatures into the mid twenties or locally hot in places.

The overall trend of the GFS is to turn things warmer over the coming 1 to 2 weeks, however we may also turn more unsettled from the 11th of June, however most of this precipitation is showery in nature and may not happen. The green line operation run clearly shows it's a cold outlier between the 13th and 16th of June while most of the other members are much milder/warmer.

Meteorite58

The ECM very warm to hot next week showing widespread temperatures getting into the mid 20's and possibly up to the high 20's in places.

Warm humid airflows look set to move up over and across the country at times and would expect with the heat some showers popping up , will see in time if thunderstorms have potential. Some very warm night time temperatures, fast rising temperatures from early morning and slow to ease off at night, looks like some classic summer weather there from the ECM.

GFS getting up to the mid 20's, GEM also getting up to the mid 20's.

Gonzo

The heat definitely seems to be on it's way and about time. While there has been decent warmth across western Ireland counties the rest of Ireland and most of the UK has seen very disappointing temperatures in recent weeks due to the chilly easterly. This up coming warm to hot spell will represent a fairly significant lift up in temperatures to all areas affected by the chilly easterly in recent weeks and will be very much welcome, even if things are a bit more unsettled. However this warm to hot spell may not last long with the GEM and GFS bringing the Atlantic back by the 16th/17th but that is a long way out. Temperatures next week look generally about 22 to 26 or 27C.

Currently the ECM, GEM, Icon and GFS all have varying levels of warmth for next week so I wouldn't be surprised if we could squeeze a 28C out of this somewhere as long as there are decent levels of sunshine and we keep the sea breezes to a minimum.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120687911#Comment_120687911

Yep.

I know I was previously 'complaining' that other people were 'complaining' about the cold and said they were being unrealistic as to what to expect. But we're now coming into mid-June where temps of 15º to 18º (as we've had in the East for around three weeks now) are kind of disappointing, even for Dublin, especially given the synoptics. Today barley breached 14º in a few Eastern places. And Dublin Airport and Dun Laoghaire, where I am, have yet to hit 20º.

So I'm looking forward to a week or two of actual warmth.

Although the past three weeks have still been great for Dublin. Dry and sunny.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120688123#Comment_120688123

Yeah 3 weeks ago we were getting 14 to 16C generally and now as we enter the second week of June temperatures are still stuck around 14C. No complaints about the sunshine over recent weeks and dryness but these temperatures are certainly a few degrees below average for week 1 to 2 of June. Under the right conditions we can get 15 or 16C with sunshine in February. Last week was fairly chilly and we had the brief warm up over the bank holiday weekend which was very pleasant. I didn't expect today and yesterday to be as chilly and the cloud has proven alot more stubborn as well. Looking forward to some much needed warmth next week we've waited long enough.

Icon is currently leading the way with highest temperatures.

If these charts verify some eastern and southern areas could be anywhere from 10 to 12C warmer than the values of today and yesterday. By night some places could struggle to get much below 17C. It's going to feel vastly different to the current chilly pattern.

sryanbruen

ECM went as far as projecting 29C for the Midlands near Gurteen area Wednesday next week. That would be remarkably early for such a temperature. The earliest 30C I'm aware of in Ireland is also the national record date of 26 June 1887. Flaming June 2023

newholland mad

This was put up earlier on another farming fourm, would someone more knowledgeable mind interpreting it please?

https://news.italy24.press/world/525247.html

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120688352#Comment_120688352

That's a month old ECM seasonal model run, it's out of date. At the time, it was showing a hot summer pattern with high pressure over the North Sea which would usher in southeasterly winds to Ireland and give a hot summer but with a Biscay low would give the threat of thundery downpours.

The latest ECM seasonal is hardly any different for July-August-September (JAS) and is identical indicating a continuation through July but further out on the run through to early and mid autumn, the low pressure gets closer and closer. This gives the indication that we might see a deterioration through later in summer or maybe in early autumn. Won't know what it's showing for sure until next week when we should get the month by month breakdowns instead of these tri-monthly anomalies.

newholland mad

Thank you, I didn't notice when it was actually published. Deffo easy to spot an amateur here.

sryanbruen

The likelihood is slim but would say greater than norm. GFS 0z was the first run to suggest 30C in Ireland that I've seen this summer so far. 06z had other ideas with an unsettled NW'ly flow.

No changes in the outlook. Remains warm/very warm for the foreseeable future and don't be believing those runs indicating Atlantic influence such as the GFS or occasionally the GEM. There is nothing to suggest such out to the end of the month at the very least unless we see drastic changes in the global setup which cannot be counted out. Sea surface temperatures around us in the North Atlantic also remain extreme and unprecedented (I don't use that word lightly) so it's very difficult to get genuine countrywide cool weather anyway at this time.

There will be waxing and waning of areas of high pressure to our northeast but the wind shall always come from the east or south. Shower risk will always be there too due to all the heat and energy aloft and high pressure will not be centrally located most of the time.

Gonzo

Just looking at the EC extended and it's interesting. It basically shows it remaining warm to very warm throughout but turning more unsettled into the final week of June and opening week of July, however we quickly go back to a dry and potentially hot setup with plenty of high pressure domination in July.

The chart that Syran shows above has 30+ potential written all over it, something I feel will happen at some stage during July rather than the final week of June. If we do end up chasing 33C again in July I hope it's a clean cut clearance of 33C!

Gonzo

GFS 18z keeps the warm weather going with bascially 20C+ almost every day between now and the end of the month with many of those days close to mid 20s. If you want to see a return to cool Atlantic conditions it's not coming any time soon. The humidity will also most likely stay high over the next few weeks with plenty of warm nights to come.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120703587#Comment_120703587

Next weekend and start of the following week looks wet though.

Hopefully that low stays out in the Atlantic and heads south as so many have done the past month.

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120703754#Comment_120703754

I’d say that trend will continue with the models underestimating the block.

sryanbruen

Suspect it will be quite wet and possibly thundery early next week, too much evidence to go against this. Some places will be very wet but that's the nature of having all this warm, unstable air that could go boom at any point. Completely expected this going into the summer - high pressure to our northeast and low pressure over Biscay. I see this rinsing and repeating in the foreseeable future with another rise in pressure likely closer to the country following this. Very humid and warm outlook with no end in sight.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120704140#Comment_120704140

If this continues in to next month, it will be interesting to see the sea temperatures.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120704722#Comment_120704722

Baltic would be my scientific estimation.

squarecircles

12z gfs is getting very toasty towards the end of june.

pauldry

Ya was noticing that too. Looks like over 20c is normal this Summer. Its been 22c to 24c in Sligo almost every day. Bar today and another day were 19 or 20c. Last year June here was 13c

Looks like a thundery few weeks like July 2006 possible.

Thekeencyclist

Any ideas if any Rain is expected in the next couple of days in the Northwest?

Met Eireann is saying no rain but Yr.no is giving a lot of rain

#confused #farmerneedstomakesilage

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120713789#Comment_120713789

Plenty of rain in the northwest and indeed other parts of Ireland over the weekend and early next week.

Low pressure will dominate our weather over the next 5 to 7 days at least, however the models are playing around with the idea of things becoming dryer as we enter the second half of next week and into next weekend. GFS 00z turns us slightly plumey for a a few days with temperatures possibly getting close to 30C but that is very much an outlier.

There is an extreme outlier that gets things hotter than the operational run so it's not completely on it's own.

Currently I wouldn't feel confident of this very warm to hot turn in the final week of June but with a few members doing it, it is something to keep an eye on over the next few days to see do we get an increase in member support for what could be potentially another significant warm event for the month of June. However I feel this will impact SE UK and Benelux countries rather than have much impact on Ireland.

squarecircles

HOT

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719207#Comment_120719207

I don't want it particularly, especially if it will be humid, but if we must get it I would love to see the temperature record challenged at some stage this Summer.

Jock_Ewing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719349#Comment_120719349

I feel the temperature record is going to go in the next 5 years. We'll be getting better synoptic by the year. The 33c last year was on a half cloudy day with light, very warm showers, if it was a bit sunnier the temp was broken. 13/14 August producing 32.5 in Durrow Laois. When 2 hrs daylight has gone and the sun angle dropped 7 or 8 degrees.

Even this year seas are already well above average temperature. We have more mini droughts each year. Hard dry ground like now is more conducive to heat build up. We're winding up to it I think.

2015 is the last washout summer.

Gonzo

Just to note the GFS 12z from earlier today really went off on a bender with some fairly hot temperatures for the final week of June, up to 30 or 31C possible across the country but it is an outlier however there are more and more of them appearing, lets see what the pub run brings. The warm to hot ensemble runs probably won't verify for the current snapshot timeframe but gives signs that something very warm to hot probably will verifiy during July.

At least 4 of the 12z set gets us to the +17C upper air temperature range with a large amount of them getting between +10 and +12 for the final week of June. Not to be taken seriously right now but another major warm to hot spell seems likely at some stage this summer.

nacho libre

If the current ECM output in its latter stages is correct,we may be going back to a more traditional Summer pattern of low Pressure to the North West with any drier and brighter weather on offer towards the South East of England

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721257#Comment_120721257

The European monsoon. Is. Coming.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721263#Comment_120721263

That sounds ominous

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721257#Comment_120721257

GFS has been hinting at this for a while now too but hopefully we will see another decent spell of weather or 2 before the end of summer, although I don't think we will be see a repeat of a prolonged 4 to 5 week dry spell.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721313#Comment_120721313

It's a bit disappointing if correct considering recent ec46 longer range output was promising for much of July, but it's just another timely reminder not to give too much credence to it. I won't be sorry to see the back of the humidity though.

sryanbruen

On a more serious note, we look to finally see some motion globally that could explain the changes in the positioning of the high pressure. This summer so far, we've had a northward displacement of the high pressure system away from the Azores and I saw a theory stating this is a big player in how extremely warm the North Atlantic is. Very active MJO is likely to blame here, strange to see such a warm North Atlantic during an El Niño. We look to be going towards a more traditional route of high pressure from the southwest with pressure lowering significantly over the Arctic by late June. Ireland will be difficult to pin down but the north at the least would probably not be as pleasant as it has been.

On the other hand, such a change in patterns can give rise to extreme heat building over Iberia and subsequently that pushing north to give record-breaking 'heat spikes' or brief heatwaves that we've seen so much of in western Europe since 2015. Spain had a very wet period through May but things can change very drastically as shown through this June with it only getting hotter.

So I do anticipate another period of warm, dry weather via high pressure influence towards later in June or into July but perhaps not as strongly over Ireland as previously expected. The new EC46 has been very consistent with placing an anticyclone over us through the middle part of July which is typically our most frequented period for heatwaves in this country. Consistency doesn't mean it'll be right though.

nacho libre

Yes, the Azores High will probably nudge in at some stage but I don't think we will see a repeat of what we just had,namely any high will probably be flattened due to the declining influence of the global drivers you mentioned leading to a more default pattern for us.