FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

pauldry · 05-07-2023 07:22PM

Wanna bet?

This is the way I had envisaged Summer in Ireland when El Nino started. Though it can bring warm temperatures it usually brings above normal rain to our shores. We were blessed in June.

Now it could be low after low til September bar a few days here and there.

Billcarson · 05-07-2023 09:06PM

Moral is never ever trust good weather in late spring/ early summer. Can draw people into a false sense of security thinking we will have a good summer. Can't say im surprised the way things have turned recently.

Gonzo · 07-07-2023 12:09PM

After a brief warm up today and tomorrow, we go back to a chilly pattern over the next 2 weeks by the looks of these ensembles with rain/showers/downpours most if not every day. Apart from the next 2 days, temperatures may struggle to get much above 17 or 18c over the next 10 to 14 days.

Currently there is absolutely no sign of summer coming back in the models right out to the end of FI.

Oscar Bravo · 07-07-2023 12:17PM

Cork Shannon and Knock forecasting gusts up to 40knots for a time tomorrow morning. Pretty strong for July

BECMG 0807/0809 21022G40KT

Edit ,wrong thread. Sorry :)

esposito · 07-07-2023 03:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120817605#Comment_120817605

Hope you booked your Spanish holiday Gonzo!!

Hopefully August will see a marked improvement with HP close to us.

pauldry · 09-07-2023 11:53AM

In 7 to 10 days a tropical storm moves into the Atlantic. This is a good sign I think as these can often send the Azores High to our shore.

This is the first run I've seen this. Well see if it becomes the trend. Would certainly mean more than 1 nice day in a row and hopefully break the Atlantic Conveyor Belt.

Gonzo · 10-07-2023 12:56PM

GFS 6z is finally starting to show maybe some hope that things will begin to settled down into the final days of July. The GFS absolutely nailed the current unsettled pattern change from the warm and dry pattern of June so will be interesting to see where the GFS goes from here. We would need to see several GFS runs supporting this change to more settled conditions before taking anything seriously out in the depths of FI.

There is no getting away from the fact that the next 7 to 10 days are going to be mostly on the cool side and unsettled with low pressure dominating.

In about 2 weeks time signs of a change on the way as the low pressure of gloom finally starts to spin itself eastwards away from Ireland.

We finish up high and dry with a lovely area of high pressure centered right over the UK and Ireland.

The GFS 00z was also trying to settle things down right at the end but not to the same extent as the 6z.

This has to be taken with a large pinch of salt for now but for the first time in about 2 weeks we are seeing faint signals of an improving situation in the final week of July.

glanman · 13-07-2023 10:42AM

Any new updates and opinions appreciated!

Gonzo · 13-07-2023 10:49AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120845139#Comment_120845139

On Monday I posted above your post pointing towards a possible hint towards things settling down and warming up into the final week of July. Unfortunately the GFS did not continue this hint into a trend, we've lost the signal and the charts now look properly unsettled and rather cool right into the final week of July, there is currently no sign to an end to the unsettled and cool Atlantic dominated pattern.

If you read MT's daily posts his latest post points towards several more weeks of cool and unsettled weather meaning this could continue into the start of August and possibly beyond. We are in an unsettled weather pattern that has happened many times before and it's a pattern that sometimes takes several months to shift. Summers 2007-2012 and 2020 are great examples of it and we could be adding 2023 to the list if there is no let up by mid August.

glanman · 13-07-2023 11:10AM

cheers Gonzo. Didn't know MT did longer term updates so will keep an eye on that, thanks

pauldry · 13-07-2023 12:07PM

Yes Gonzo the washing machine looks like it's been fitted installed and plugged in for the rest of the Summer.

El Nino influenced Summers are rarely that great here. The jet is more powerful so we suffer. La nina has a weaker jet hence the pleasant Summers recently.

So next Summer could be more washing machine but who the fcuk knows.

Hairypoppins · 13-07-2023 12:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120845285#Comment_120845285

He's been doing them nearly 15 years now

nacho libre · 13-07-2023 09:40PM

Strong El Ninos usually mean wet summers for us, so we should have been more sceptical than usual with the long range models that were predicting a return to settled conditions in July. Things may settle down in August but I would not be confident that an increase in AAM will finally cause this to happen. We may well have to wait till the backend of August into the beginning of September for the Atlantic to run out of energy for a bit. Which is not that unusual for us

pauldry · 14-07-2023 09:35AM

Despite the mainly grim runs recently there's a couple including the GFS this morning which have quiter spells between the rain. So I don't think a 1985 and 1986 is likely. This mornings run has fairly decent spells bar this weekend and next weekend. Strange all the weekends seem to be especially muck. Rising global temperatures mean a 12c fest like the mid eighties is virtually impossible now. Even the 14c days of 2011 are hard to repeat for a long period anymore. Now the bad weather brings 16c to 18 or 19c though today might only reach mid teens in some areas it will be over 20c in the South later.

Hooter23 · 14-07-2023 09:41AM

I think everything usually means wet summer for us😐

piplip87 · 14-07-2023 03:16PM

So anyways what's the craic with snow ? Because I think Summer is well and truly screwed at this stage, may get on the snow train early

sryanbruen · 14-07-2023 03:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851240#Comment_120851240

I'm trying my hardest to not mention it! Getting more and more difficult to resist though with days like today and little hope in the outlook.

July has completely flopped on all accounts. Long range models failed, driver signals failed to foresee this very unsettled pattern though there was the warning that the warm seas would allow a lot of moisture if a wet favoured pattern does set up and that is what has happened.

So much for the "patience" required. This July will be looked at in great detail I'm sure by forecasters of how it went so wrong - aside from the GFS teasing it. Any signs of significant improvement have all vanished, at times they keep fleeting on some runs but as far out as the forecast goes, even the ECM ensembles are stubborn in continuation of this shitshow. Yes they can be wrong and change but that's not the case right now.

Hooter23 · 14-07-2023 03:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851240#Comment_120851240

Dont worry you can start having delusions of snow soon...when we are finished having delusions about getting a summer

mojesius · 14-07-2023 11:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851411#Comment_120851411

When the warm rain turns to cold rain.

My 5 year old daughter summed it up today: "Mammy, why is it like winter even though it's summer? Winter is so long and it hasn't even started yet and we need the sun in summer". In fairness to her, the last two summers have been fabulous so that's all she remembers.

pauldry · 15-07-2023 01:11AM

Looked at CFS about a week ago and it was all lows and rain all the way to the end of August. Then pressure rose. Not sure that's still the forecast but July will be one of the wettest in a while.

nacho libre · 15-07-2023 11:13AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851240#Comment_120851240

Strong Il Nino events usually lead to mild and unsettled winter for us. So I am not getting my hopes up at all for this winter

JanuarySnowstor · 15-07-2023 11:21AM

I wonder how are sea temps looking now?

I had to laugh a couple of months ago George Lee was telling us about a cold blob in the Atlantic which might mean colder winters for us. About 3 weeks after his report the seas were record breaking warm. The scientists are and always will be playing catch up on the weather! Many a Summer in the 90s was like this year, this July while very disappointing, is nothing unusual in our history. Indeed on the law of averages it's perfectly normal.

Also the weather in the med is perfectly normal for peak Summer. Granted highest temps are increasing alright.

The biggest change is social media and sensationalist headlines

Akrasia · 15-07-2023 11:46AM

Normal except for the abnormal extremely hot temperatures....

I think the models will struggle as the ocean temperatures are unprecedented so ensemble models, trained on historical weather patterns will struggle to converge on the correct outcome

Meteorite58 · 15-07-2023 12:52PM

Mod Note : please stay on topic as per the thread title. Climate conversation / debate elsewhere.

Gonzo · 15-07-2023 08:48PM

yes the models are very grim indeed it doesn't get worse than this for summer, this pattern is pretty much locked in till at least the first week of August but it will probably go beyond that too.

JanuarySnowstor · 15-07-2023 08:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856355#Comment_120856355

Sure is, the change after June has caught everyone by surprise. I guess el nino is the main cause. Is it too early to write off the rest of Summer!! Might sound mad but I wouldn't bet against it as recent August's have been quite autumnal

I personally think June was it and the writing is on the blackboard...

Gonzo · 15-07-2023 08:55PM

August can't do much worse than July unless we throw a Hurricane Charley event into the mix. August probably will be unsettled but perhaps not as wet as July fingers crossed with the Atlantic hopefully starting to run out of steam, we shall see.