FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120882465#Comment_120882465

Just in time for the back-to-school and one you could nearly always set your watch to.

The amount of usually happy people I've met who are really feeling the downer this weather brings is unreal. I pity anyone suffering ongoing depression and this excuse of a summer heaped ontop of them too.

Alot of rain right out until Bank Holiday Monday is forecast on the GFS. No fears of drought for a long time yet.

Hooter23

Dont worry even after all this rain if we get a week or two of sun they will declare a drought here on craggy island🙃

InAtFullBack

Just had a quick view of the GFS run and Bank Holiday Monday is the only time in the run that the entirety of Ireland is at 1020hPa+

Every other day is low pressure after low pressure.

Awful.

Hooter23

Well at least now we know its not climate change because this is the weather we always had...no change here

Rebelbrowser

Can't post charts but 12z GFS has the first 10 days of August looking very nice indeed....

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120891529#Comment_120891529

Wonderful.

Likelihood though... 😑 way out on its own.

nacho libre

It's not supported by the GEM and ECM either, buy maybe the outlier could become the trendsetter. Bear in mind The GFS has outperformed the other models at times this summer.

pauldry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120891529#Comment_120891529

Ya but then I go on holiday 11th and crap returns. But indeed an improvement in August is likely.

.Donegal.

ECM accumulated rainfall by this time next week. Waterford not looking too bad ha

fits

Definitely maybe

Gonzo

1st week of August just looks very unsettled on all the models. Yesterdays GFS 12z had no support. We will most likely have to wait till the 2nd or 3rd week of August for some sort of an improvement.

pauldry

Yeah GFS sound like theyr as sick of this pattern as we are. So trying to invent drier charts. Think once the heatwave in Southern Europe eases in 2 or 3 weeks it may shift the pattern a bit and higher pressure will be closer to us.

pauldry

Yuk GFS this morning bar a couple of nice days. If that transpires we may indeed match 1985 and 1986 for rain and get the 500mm even for Summer.

Gonzo

I think I heard yesterday the UK may finish up with the second wettest July on record and that record goes back to the 1600s. No doubt we will finish with either the wettest July on record or second wettest.

pauldry

Northern Ireland has already had its wettest July on record and after this weekend it will have opened a sizeable gap over 2nd place.

Looking at charts today I fear August may be even worse as there's strong winds at times with the rain and West to East jetstream right over Ireland as far as the forecast goes.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120898091#Comment_120898091

3rd wettest if current avg rain per day continue but that will change.

UK rainfall records don't go back to 1600s. The national rainfall record goes back to 1836. It's likely to be the 6th wettest for the UK since then based on current mm per day but with more rain, this can easily change to higher ranks.

nacho libre

I think the jetstream may go further north by Mid August onwards, the heatwave ending in Europe will likely coincide with better weather for us. It would not surprise me if we go from one extreme to the other- a lengthy dry spell of two to three weeks. This pattern of extremes seems to be the way things are going this year.

pauldry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120898181#Comment_120898181

Oh. The woman on BBC weather said parts of Northern Ireland have had their wettest July on record. So only "parts". What is the record for NI? 200mm?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120898323#Comment_120898323

The back to school week end of August and beginning to September is almost guaranteed to be gin blue skies and temperatures into the 20s. I've not much faith in the first half of August however.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120898181#Comment_120898181

I thought most of their records went back to the 1600s but seems like it was only the temperature records they had from 1659.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120898979#Comment_120898979

That's only the Central England Temperature which is the longest running dataset in the entire world. England & Wales have a monthly precipitation series since 1766.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120898841#Comment_120898841

Probably referring to localised stations but the region as a whole, it is not the wettest on record. Yet. The wettest was all the way back in 1936 with 185.2mm.

Btw apologies for off topic to FI charts, don't know how to quote in other threads on this Boards.

alentejo

It is only a matter of time before the jet stream migrates north and gives us some kind of settled spell and gets us out of the near continuous cycle of Atlantic fronts. The only issue is the timing of this, it could be mid August, the end of August or even mid to late September. I suspect the residual heat built up on the continent and difference to the Atlantic margins might mean that this will occur later rather than any time soon!

My own guess is that September will be near wall to wall sunshine and a kind of Indian Summer - I really do feel sorry for the school children this summer.

I am always very weary of good sunny June's as the inevitable breakdown kicks in and lasts somewhere between 4 to 8 plus weeks for it to clear.

toggle toes

As per normal the first week in September usually brings sunshine and blue skies so I wouldn't give up hope of having one last shot of Summer.

Billcarson

Certainly wouldn't be surprised for summer weather to return for September. But with El Niño I wouldn't be surprised either if the poor weather pattern continues for many more months ahead .... the second half of the year being extremely wet is something I think is very possible.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120899734#Comment_120899734

A lot of wet months in a row doesn’t seem to be a pattern we see these days. I’m hopeful that it’ll turn and we’ll get a drier than average period starting at some stage during the next 4-6 weeks.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120899734#Comment_120899734

Analogs of the Atlantic SSTs don't exactly spell good news either 😵‍💫

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1683459817573064704?s=20

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120900537#Comment_120900537

Let’s be honest, analogs are pretty useless predictors of future weather. As well off tossing a coin.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120900612#Comment_120900612

It's not the be all and end all however 👍️ especially hurricanes and tropical storms which can bring significant changes to a pattern by the time we get to September. Only thing about this year is, El Niño favours weaker hurricane seasons in the Atlantic but with very warm SSTs, which is highly unusual in an El Niño, could that make it a more active season?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120900682#Comment_120900682

Everything is a useless predictor of future weather, there will never be a 100% probability. However they can give signs sometimes that can allow a reasonable advance prediction that is useful for contingency planners. As far as signal goes, those are pretty strong based purely on the sea surface temperatures. Nonetheless, things can easily change - for example, the tropical activity that led to the May/June pattern completely collapsed and ushered in this unsettled July which has likely been amplified by the above average sea temperatures for the rainfall that was unforeseen from all directions unless you went off the idea of nature balancing.

It's just for fun well not that the signal is fun, you know what I mean.. 🙃