FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120772148#Comment_120772148

With an el nino pattern you could well be right that we don't see a repeat of Late May to Early June, but in any year given our climate that's a tall order. However it's quite possible an extension of the Azores High might pay us a visit sometime in July to settle things down for a few days at least.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120773371#Comment_120773371

Subtle hints in the longrange charts of heights rising from the azores to our west in the middle of July, which could give us a break from the SW/W unsettled regime for a period

scouserstation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120773689#Comment_120773689

Indeed the signals are pointing towards a mid July reset of our current unsettled pattern, this will likely bring a few days of anti cyclonic conditions with warm or even hot temperatures, there are some posters here writing off July already but we rarely have a very poor July weather wise, going back over the last 7 -8 years I think the summer 0f 2020 was the worse and even that wasnt too bad, bar the first week of July id be fairly confident things will start to settle down and we can look forward to a decent spell of weather

Gonzo

A shift to dryer and warmer weather is most likely in the second half of July. We are currently stuck in an Atlantic pattern which isn't the conveyer belt we know and hate so well, but more of a washing machine cycling of the same low pressure, this looks like holding for the next 7 to 10 days but can't stay doing this over us for much longer, something will budge it eventually and the most likely scenario is a push of warmth up from the south with very warm air combined with instability or the azores high eventually ridging into us, right now we don't know which way this will go. However for now expect a cooler than average period until at least the 7th or 8th of July which could get extended further out.

The only positive point I can make at least for southern and eastern areas is this unsettled spell won't be overly wet, certainly not a deluge pattern, just more of an annoyance checking the radar for showers or spell of light rain to avoid getting wet on walks or other outdoor activities. Donegal and the extreme western coastal fringes may get a fair drop of rain in this scenario but everywhere else rain should be below normal. Temperatures won't be anything to write home about either over the next few weeks with mid to high teens the very best we can expect and low teens if stuck under rain/drizzle for any prolonged moments of rain.

I'll be keeping a very close eye on the models looking for believeable trends that will hopefully shift to dryer and warmer weather to bring our summer back for a while before we get to August. In my opinion January and August are the 2 months that disappoint the most year on year in that they deliver the total opposite to what they should achieve considering the time of the year etc, let's hope we get a bit of luck with August this summer.

pauldry

Looking to the CFS....can't forecast sh!te model for the laugh.

It has bad weather until about July 7th or 8th, then some warm sunny spells with brief interruptions and towards the end of July longer unsettled periods.

It's forecast for August looks fairly Atlantic dominated but no pattern for it to be either too warm or too cold probably an average August as opposed to a sweltering hot one or wet one.

However it's for fun forecasting just to speculate.

Dazler97

I seen that apparently the UK could get 40c again in a few weeks but I know it's just weather clickbait

Strong and Faithful

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120779017#Comment_120779017

Anything that says the Brits Blasted can't be all that bad 🤭

Strong and Faithful

The Old folk in my youth used say you'll always get 2 good weeks in July at some stage.

Very unscientific, but I'm going by it!

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120780256#Comment_120780256

True

Gonzo

Looking at the GFS ensembles it appears we are about to go into a fairly prolonged cool spell with at least a week of lower than normal temperatures by 1 to 3c. Not much rain over the next 5 days but from the start of next week and over the following week it looks increasingly wet with low pressure dominating over Ireland. From July 7th to about the 11th is looking particularly unsettled. At the moment very little sign of a warming and drying trend right out to the end of FI. July 2023 is going to be nothing like July 2022. It was around this day last year were we went into a very warm to hot pattern and this remained almost unbroken until September 2nd.

Hopefully in about a weeks time we may see an improvement pointing towards the second half of July.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120781852#Comment_120781852

Looking like July 2020 repeat 😬

Still time for improvements for second half of July.

I’ve a hunch we will have second good August in a row.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120781977#Comment_120781977

The first half of July looks like a write off, very July 2020 but I'm remaining hopeful we will see a definite improvement for the second half of July. Just a few weeks ago many of the long term models were pointing towards a warm to hot July, some of them were dominated by high pressure and others were warm and volatile. This goes to show just how unreliable the long term models are but maybe they were on to something and we may end up with a decent August instead.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782022#Comment_120782022

I was just about to mention this too. The actual weather often makes a mockery out of these long range models. With this in mind The EC46 a while back was showing the thundery period we got as a brief interruption before the weather settled down again for the first two weeks of July. However it seems the writing was on the wall when the global drivers that facilitated heights to the north waned and the jetstream split ended. It's unlikely with we will go back to heights building to the north, so I think we are relying on the Azores High ridging in over us to settle things down for a few days at some point later in July .

pauldry

Last charts are worse than ones before. Looks very unsettled windy and cool.

I don't mind as I was fed up of the heat but the rest of my family don't agree.

So even a warm Atlantic does nothing to shift these lows. Its perfectly normal though. Every year we get a good month and this year it happened to be June. Every year we get a few bad months e.g March.....July??

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120783650#Comment_120783650

Just when I thought the charts couldn't possibly get any worse than the ones I looked at this morning, but the 12z sets are worse again, it doesn't get any worse than this for the first 2 weeks of July, pretty much as bad as it gets. We have a few more dryish days to go before we get stuck into the very wet and cool pattern, I am hoping that will get some downgrades over the next few days because these charts are dire. The muckfest also seems to be extending further into July each time a new set of charts rolls out with any hint of dryer and warmer weather constantly getting pushed back.

temperature wise some of these charts are showing temperatures not getting much above 10 or 11c in the afternoon across the north-west and north with mid teens the very best across the east and south.

Time to book that Spanish holiday. A break from the model watching over the next week to 10 days might be a good idea.

sryanbruen

To be honest, I'm very surprised that the models are going to town with this low pressure as far out as they do. I suspect it's more of an overreaction to the low AAM/collapse in MJO activity. Don't expect anything great going into July for at least the first week but still don't see anything, apart from an atmospheric river type setup with all the warm residue that I previously mentioned, that would be suggestive of a complete washout - just benign, standard Irish summer fare.

Still looking to mid-July for a return of the pattern that was expected this summer and we seen for a good part of June once the initial prolonged high pressure spell broke that began in mid-May by and large. This pattern being high pressure to our east/northeast with low pressure around Biscay threatening thunderstorms. June 2023 showed how conducive to thunder this setup is and once it gets going, it can result in frequent activity. The sea surface temperatures are only aiding in this and there is no reason to expect this to end.

Mid-July is a very typical time to getting a warm spell or heatwave in Ireland, many classics have come from this period such as 1983, 1989, 2006, 2013, 2021 and 2022. That being said, it's not as straightforward this time around to suggest a blocking pattern that will last as long as June did and I hope people appreciate how rare and exceptional both the drought period early on since mid-May as well as how thundery the 13th-25th were. Seasonal wavelengths also mean the lower likelihood of getting in easterly winds - July is a very westerly month traditionally.

So in summary, I think this suggestion of Atlantic lows going to town and setting up shop for weeks to come over Ireland from the models is over the top. We may need to be patient to getting in a spell that is less benign and feature more frequent and nationwide warmth and sunshine.

Anyway, here's to hopes of a better outlook soon for summer lovers or if you don't like the warmth/sunshine, enjoy the relief.

pauldry

Very unsettled and cool looks locked in for the 1st half of July. It may relent for a while in week 3 but there are signs it gets reestablished late July though that's all way too far.

For the past many runs week 3 of July seems the best month to book a holiday in Ireland this Summer as the next low that will ruin our weather will be to the Southwest for a few days dragging up warm air.

sryanbruen

We've seen slow progress of the models going more towards what one would expect given the drivers that I describe in detail in the previous post above. The GFS and its ensembles remain stubborn on a very unsettled outlook through to mid-July with a complete write off whilst the ECM and GEM have been moving more towards warmer though still quite changeable for Ireland from the second week of July. The latest ECM looks prone to drawing in a very warm push of air at the end of its run with a ridge that would probably go northeastward and the low in the Atlantic would undercut. This was a bit of a more out there solution though not an outlier.

Patience, patience, patience..

Gonzo

The GEM certainly looks quite different to the GFS for next weekend with a push of warmth up from the south over Ireland with mid 20s. The GFS of course still going to town on keeping the cool and wet weather going well into the middle of July with only a glancing blow of heat getting into the far south east of the UK for a few hours next weekend.

It's worth nothing while the GFS hasn't exactly performed well over the past 6 months, it did get this current unsettled Atlantic pattern change correct, it was showing this several weeks back while other models wanted to bring proper warmth and a continuation of the June pattern well into July so will be interesting to see which models are correct about next weekend. I have a feeling if we do get a push of warmth by next weekend it will get flattened off by low pressure from the Atlantic fairly quickly anyway.

The only thing that is certain for now is that the next 6 days looks cool, windy and unsettled with plenty of showers or periods of rain.

Gonzo

GEM now back in line with GFS, keeps it cool and unsettled right through next weekend.

nacho libre

An uptick in MJO and AAM ,should see a rebuild of a blocking high from mid July Onwards as low pressure is forced to undercut. However the settled spell may not last nearly as long as the one we had in late May and early June due to them not being as pronounced as they were in the previous settled spell. Let's see. The models look crap up to then,but could change soon enough from the crappy outlook.

pauldry

Atlantic well in charge now. June type prolonged heat has very little chance for July. Mainly showery days with the odd very wet period like next Thursday night into Friday.

The best we can hope for is a few warm days here and there. Hopefully August will settle a bit coz rain for July is going to be well above average.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120798656#Comment_120798656

Hopes of things settling down second half of July are starting to look slim with not much sign in the models, I think the best we can hope for is a few isolated dry days here and there with flimpsy attempts of high pressures getting flattened off, the Atlantic looks like it's going to be in full control for the foreseeable future. Maybe August will deliver a few days to a week of a settled spell but I wouldn't bet on it as August is usually a very Atlantic dominated month.

sryanbruen

Typical, the slow progress was more of a tease than a trend and the GFS has been right again as Gonzo highlighted. GFS back to being a good model again after being disastrous last winter? Does look like another flattening of the attempt of building high pressure this weekend for a while although I never had this weekend in likelihood as one that would deliver anything other than changeable conditions. Nonetheless, the low is enough to collapse any building of the high to the east whilst at the same time, some intense heat is building to the south as a result.

I can't find or cherrypick anything to suggest the next chance of summery conditions, July 2023 is looking quite cool and very unsettled.

I am getting a sense of 1940. After that record-breaking warm and sunny June that year, July was much more unsettled but August was exceptionally dry.

pauldry

Even looking at the fun CFS for signs of Summer heat and they have repeated lows moving down from the Northwest and West with Atlantic driven weather dominant. However there are a few brief breaks at times so we will get some sunny dry days but I'd say rain will be plentiful.

Gonzo

The ECM extended has updated and it wants to keep the unsettled theme going right into mid August which is as far as we can go with it with any chances of dryer weather flimpsy and short lived. This is the same model that was predicting a very warm to hot July with high pressurefest going on as recently as 2 weeks ago.

giveitholly

So basically it doesn't have a clue.........

pauldry

It doesn't but it could happen. It may quiten down around mid July and maybe charts will get more favorable if it does. Otherwise the above scenario is quite likely to happen.

nacho libre

The latest GFS is grim viewing right out to the 20th if it's warmth your after. I still think we could see a sudden flip to a more settled outlook a few days after mid month.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120809931#Comment_120809931

It really is grim stuff but looking at the charts I just don't see a way out of this mucky pattern any time soon so we just have to hope for a flip in the models to take place within the next week, the current unsettled pattern has outlived it's welcome already and things are most likely to get even more unsettled before they get better. At the moment all the short range models are showing the same thing and with the GFS extending out the furthest, there isn't even a single outlier showing things settling down into the 3rd week of July. It can't stay like this for the rest of summer, we're bound to get an improvement at some stage between now and mid August.