FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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So Hurricane season is heating up and getting quite active now. Time of the year to watch for remnants, extratropical storms or just remnants laden with moisture as some Hurricanes move up along eastern US coasts and sometimes get shunted along by the Jet across the Atlantic over towards our neck of the woods in some form or other. Time of the year when these things can play havoc with the models often producing wild swings in output. Nothing more than an interest at this stage to see if anything comes from the tropics our way in the coming weeks.
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That EX Hurricane ( Franklin ) moving up along the East coast of the US at the end of next week been showing to head up towards Greenland /Iceland, possibly stirring up the cold over Greenland and dragging it into the Atlantic. After a few nice mild days early next week temperatures look set to drop slightly to the mid teens with cooler nights, could be getting up into the mid to high teens in parts by the weekend again. Not looking too bad rain wise, showers in places at times, large parts of the country seeing plenty of dry spells, no heavy frontal rain showing up at this stage , could get foggy nights/ early mornings with those cooler nights. No winds of note at this stage, quite a calm week coming it would seem. Easing gently into Autumn.
EDIT: diction!
Post edited by Meteorite58 on16 -
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Going through this mornings ECM run, can see in this one showing ex Franklin now take a path more towards Iceland which would possibly introduce some windier weather way out at +240hrs or after but nothing too strong yet showing up ( no guarantees, model bound to change several times, just looking for trends ) and a possible other disturbance could form in the Gulf of Mexico into a hurricane soon after and at this stage projected to take a similar route as Franklin.
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We at last see some hope to cling onto perhaps, of course it happens as soon as September comes around but you know what... after that July and August (also September last year), no complaints from me.
This hope isn't basing off of what the medium range is showing. Tropical activity will wreak havoc with them as this is the most uncertain point of the year when reliability goes out the window due to uncertainty surrounding whether ex-hurricanes or tropical storms will get caught in the jet stream. Do they come towards us or do they amplify high pressure our way. Last night's GFS 18z vs 0z is a perfect representation of that.
The 18z showed a washing machine of low pressure just constantly circulating around us for days on end through to mid-September giving an absolute deluge. At that same time, the 0z showed a strong anticyclone that would give lovely mellow misty mornings, days of unbroken sunshine and warming temperatures to the low 20s. Expect more of this especially considering the tropical Atlantic is very active and exceptionally so the past week.
The start of the change is the loss of the Greenland high. GEFS NAO forecast from yesterday showed the NAO going more positive through into September which at this time of year can translate to ridging from the Azores and the jet stream being shoved northwards depending on how strong the high pressure is. The Greenland high is the prime reason why July was absolutely atrocious - the July NAO index was the most negative since 2015 and there have been only a few more as negative since 1950. This continued through the vast majority of August too giving yet another unsettled month. Thankfully, this looks like changing at long last.
GFS MJO forecast shows it getting its act together after being in the "circle of doom" for much of the summer and is forecast to pass through the Indian Ocean into the Maritime Continent.
Historic analogs of El Niño Septembers with this phase correlate with anticyclonic influence over top of the country with low pressure over Iberia, not great news for Gonzo 😶 fortunately for you at this point, this is not definitive. This is not taking into account Hadley Cell expansion from those past years so Iberian ridging is more likely than ever. Though this would give the threat of some fireworks or sparks ⚡️
If we were to start seeing effects of this, it would probably be mid-September due to lag. This is of course the case if the MJO forecast does not change which it most certainly can as with any other forecast.
Some hopes for now anyway, let's see.
Additionally, if we see any southerly influence, some notable high September temperatures could be seen due to the heat domes over southern Europe with some crazy late August heat recently.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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