FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Elmer Blooker

Awful and not looking good for July.

it’s like watching a big Azores/Iberia/Euro 1040 high building around the winter solstice and you just know that things are looking bad

scouserstation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120746424#Comment_120746424

That's still a long way out and the models can overplay these runs to the extremes sometimes, if I was a betting man I would say by the end of that run the low will be downplayed and we will end up somewhere in the middle with the jet not quite dipping as low and the azores nudging a bit more in our favour, granted its not looking likely for settled conditions with wall to wall sunshine over the next 10 - 14 days but I dont see us ending up with awful conditions either

pauldry

Saw this on Twitter n had to laugh/cry

"The green snot of doom"

Strong and Faithful

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120747353#Comment_120747353

The Green snot of doom!! Who comes up with these things😅

Strong and Faithful

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120747353#Comment_120747353

Hopefully it'll only be a mild head cold!

The overnight runs are all disappointing alright. But 10 days away is still 2nd July. By 7-10 July things could have changed a lot. We have 2\3rds of summer to come. If July was poor and we got a good August the summer would still be very decent. Even in this broken phase since Saturday, there has been a lot of lovely weather. When warmth stays it feels summery regardless. Incursions from the north west would end that.

.Donegal.

ECM 10 day rainfall. Wettest for western and northern coastal counties.

Towards the end of the run a lot cooler than we’ve been used to. 12 13c at 2pm on the 1st of the July for NW areas. 17c towards the SE.

Gonzo

Looking at the charts this morning is grim to say the least, a total horror show for Ireland and the UK. I remain hopeful that this is only a temporary turn for a few weeks but I've lived through several front loaded summers when the atlantic broke through that was the summer down the tubes. While it's good to remain hopeful never under estimate the power of the Atlantic once it gets it's energy back.

a few cool and unsettled weeks looks almost certain, let's hope we see a shift to warmer and more settled looking charts over the next 2 weeks to get our summer back. I'm still banking on a nice azores high sitting over us during the second half of July.

Strong and Faithful

Was it 11C around 1998, 1st July, in Dublin was a record breaking daily max for one of the Dublin stations iirc.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120748212#Comment_120748212

If you're thinking of the July northerly plunge that gave record breaking low maxima for the time of year on 1st July, that was 1997. Only 10.6C at Casement that day.

Strong and Faithful

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120748281#Comment_120748281

That's it, a year out. And that was a warm summer month enough after.

Gonzo

as posted above it looks as if we're in for a major change to unsettled and cooler atlantic dominated weather from Sunday, however we're starting to see a few wobbles will this already.

Last nights Icon has changed it's tune and looking to build high pressure instead as we progress through next week.

with the Icon we're on a bit of a knifesedge between cool and unsettled and very warm to hot, certainly not as unsettled as the gfs or ecm/gem etc.

GFS 6z wants to settle things down to but bare in mind it's very much a warm and dry outlier almost on it's own so I don't have much confidence in this wobble for now.

Let's see what the 12z brings, will we revert back to cool and unsettled or will we see further wobbling on the revenge of the Atlantic.

Strong and Faithful

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120749269#Comment_120749269

That's good news!

Strong and Faithful

The overnight ECM looks chilly day 7-10. Hopefully it'll modify a bit.

pauldry

Whether it be freezing or warm we know whenever the next warm spell comes it will be very warm. If we get any decent High in July it will hit 30c no problem. Bar a stream of lows the sea is so warm as is Spain going to be that anything else from the South in July will bring exaggerated temperatures.

Strong and Faithful

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754077#Comment_120754077

Something should develop. Hitting 32.5C on 14 August 2022 in Durrow, Laois really brought it home to me how much potential there is for breaking records right into mid August. And apart from records just to get nice weather. On 10 September 2021 it was 28C in that station. You can reach 25C almost until the end of September. For example Kilkenny recorded 24C on 30 September 1997, 21C in lovely sunshine on 19 October that year at that station. 1997 was a very warm year.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120753918#Comment_120753918

GFS +240, spot the difference.

time to go back on the porridge I think ….

Strong and Faithful

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754675#Comment_120754675

The only saving grace is 10 days away. In winter for cold and snow the saying goes the trend is your friend...the trend isn't our friend here!

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754696#Comment_120754696

The charts above would get watered down no problem during winter but no doubt they will verify in summer. You have to laugh (otherwise you’d cry)

Gonzo

for what it's worth the trend in the long term models is still a warm to hot July, an unsettled first week to 10 days of the month and then high pressure taking control for the rest of the month. From Sunday onwards is looking like an Atlantic muckfest but there is hope things will settle down around the 2nd or 3th week of July.

Strong and Faithful

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754814#Comment_120754814

Will be interesting to see what 3rd July is like.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754675#Comment_120754675

when I look at that chart, it's what it might evolve to a few days later that interests me. In any case some recent ec46 runs were showing it settling down again after the first week of July. It would not surprise me in the least if we went from chilly to warm conditions quickly enough at some point in July

Strong and Faithful

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120755138#Comment_120755138

Like the 1st July 1997 max temps chart posted. The weather switched to warm very quickly that month.

Even the magnificent August 1995, my greatest summer month ever, had some ground frost on the August Bank Hol weekend, bit of a northerly incursion.

pauldry

Quite a cool and unsettled period of weather on the way for the next 2 weeks with rain or showers every day though temperatures around average or above for the rest of June the start of July could be a lot cooler 14 to 18c.

Gonzo

Yes this atlantic dominated pattern looks set to continue into mid July perhaps, once we get tomorrow out of the way expect mid to high teens at the very best. we wont be seeing 20c+ after tomorrow for quite a while. Temperatures generally 1 to 3c below average over the next 2 weeks particularly the 1st week of July. Hopefully signs of an improvement as we work our way through week 2 of July.

.Donegal.

ECM Very little rainfall in the SE over the next 10 days. Doesn’t actually look that wet for many in SE Ulster,Leinster and parts of Munster.

squarecircles

.//

.Donegal.

Some big rainfall totals for western coastal counties on tonight's ECM. An increase for SE areas compared to this mornings run.

Gonzo

No change in the charts for the time being and I'm not going to post charts either because it's an area of low pressure that cycles around upon itself like a washing machine over us for the next 2 weeks at the very least, so everything looks more or less the same right out to the end of FI. There are signs this unsettled and relatively cool pattern will now last at least into the middle of July and possibly beyond. Temperatures over the next 2 weeks generally 13 to 19c, coolest along western and northern coasts and mildest in the south-east. There may be isolated days where temperatures could go higher if we get a short lived swipe/ shark fin of warmth from the south-west as the low pressure continues to spin upon itself over and over. The first week of July looks notably cool with temperatures 1 to 3c below average across the country. Second week of July sees a warming trend back to more average temperatures but the unsettled washing machine cycle continues until we see signs of a change in the charts.

For the moment this pattern doesn't look overly wet, but there will be light rain or regular showers most days, enough to be an annoyance especially for outdoors activities.

pauldry

The temperatures until Friday look OK 17 to 21c but start of July 13 to 16c. Then back up to 16 to 19c after a while but still unsettled and showery. It might be hard shake off this weather for the rest of Summer bar a few short settled periods of 1 to 3 days now and again. Nothing like June in the offing for the rest of this Summer I'd say.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120772043#Comment_120772043

I can feel your rage in this post. It's time to book a holiday to Spain Gonzo!