FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

Not much change on the models this morning, all models the cfs, gem and ecm all showing very warm conditions between June 24th to 28th or thereabouts which includes next weekend. A bit more work is needed on this one tho and we need to find out will it stay dry during this period with high pressure taking hold for a few days or will we remain in a very warm but unstable flow. Temperatures in the mid twenties seems likely during this period with a small chance of high twenties locally. Over the next few days we should get a better idea how warm it will get and will it stay dry for the weekend.

nacho libre

It does appear as if it might settle down for a few days later next week, but with the forecasted change in the jetstream it's probably not going to last that long as we saw previously. If the jetstream does move further north that will likely be the end of high pressure at higher latitudes and result in a more normal pattern for us. The azores may well nudge in from time to time but it's doubtful we will see a two to three weeks dry spell if the jetstream split ends and moves further north.

Gonzo

yes the warmth next weekend looks at most a 2 to 4 day warm spell and after that back to the south-westerlies with low pressure to our north-west which may influence our weather from time to time. the plume outliers which we seen over the past few days have gone away on todays models but still decently warm stuff for all of us for a few days. 1st week of July should be close to average in terms of temperatures and after that anything can happen.

edit: the gem is back with the hot outliers once again.

squarecircles

Really looking foward to the dry warm spell next week after all the thunder activity, what a great summer this has been so far for ME, my locality and region.

WE really need the easterlies/south easterlies to come back at some stage for proper continental style heat.

What WE dont want to see is a contionous return of the south westerlies.

fingers crossed.

Thekeencyclist

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120731152#Comment_120731152

Great to hear, any hints if there will be much rainfall between 24th - 28th in the northwest?

Would like to get the last of the silage gathered if things were to be reasonably dry.....

Gonzo

the upcoming warm spell is getting downgraded a bit on the models. It's now looking like a 2 day wonder at most on the GFS at least with low pressure from the north-west spoiling the spell as early as Monday in western regions. Looks dry for the most part over the weekend and after that things may turn more unsettled for some western regions as the atlantic may try to bite into Ireland at times However southern and eastern areas may fare better with dryer and slightly warmer conditions as high pressure tries to regain control but looks like it will always come under pressure from these low areas of pressure just off our north-west coast.

On this particular run the azores high does not have the strength to gain proper control of our weather for more than a few days at most with Ireland on the battleground between dryer and warmer conditions vs more unsettled and cooler atlantic conditions trying to make a move.

edit: the 6z brings in cloud and rain to western areas over the weekend with the warm and dry weather in eastern areas only lasting 36 hours. This weekends warm and settled turn is very quickly starting to look like a bust, at least on the gfs.

Gonzo

the gfs 6z moves the low pressure to our north-west in over western area over the weekend so the warm spell is quickly getting flattened off by the atlantic on this mornings gfs operational run.

Rain mostly light could impact western and north-western areas for much of the weekend based on this run.

there is still time for this to upgrade again but based on latest gfs output this weekend is not looking great or as good as we hoped. Need to see the 12z output later on.

JanuarySnowstor

We don't get heatwaves out of Southwesterlys in Ireland. Next weekend is looking mild/warm but quite cloudy for most with the southeast faring best. The jet running over the top at times the outlook is very uncertain, but a much more familiar pattern for Ireland.

I see grass growth has literally exploded here, we've gone from drought to super growth in 3 days!! If nothing else the farmers will be happy!

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120734354#Comment_120734354

the east coast gets higher temps from southwesterlies than an easterly in summer, those recent 14c cold wind days in my parts are thankfully gone,

…. an imby post I know but everyone’s an imby when it comes to weather preferences.

Gonzo

southern, eastern and some mid-western areas can do well from a south-westerly in terms of temperature, but it's rarely ever a properly sunny situation combined with a melting pot which England can get from these set ups. Overall south-westerlies are warmer than the easterly for the south-eastern half of the country (especially in May and June) although if the southwesterly has a band of rain stalled across the country then it's a rubbish setup for Ireland. sometimes south-westerlies work out, other times they don't.

Elmer Blooker

Yes, southwesterlies are generally cloudy but south county Dublin and around Bray and Greystones do well as I’ve noticed many many times looking south from my attic window, Killiney hill is basking in glorious sunshine while the north of the county is under a blanket of cloud.

The charts aren’t looking great for next week but don’t despair, the best summers have a breakdown. The middle of the summer of 1976 was very average for a time and that’s forgotten as it’s erroneously remembered as a summer of non stop sunshine from June til the end of August which wasn’t the case.

JanuarySnowstor

Much more Atlantic type summer pattern establishing into weekend and beyond. Not a great outlook but still quite warm. Looks like ideal growing weather with rain becoming more widespread into next week..

Not so good for hay-fever sufferers with wind always a factor. Speaking from experience there's no weather type worse than mild and wind for pollen!

Gonzo

The atlantic may be coming back but still looks fairly warm with low to possibly mid 20s at times. Could be a lot worse, a north-west to south-east alignment or the constant conveyer belt which usually gets going in August.

Plenty of warm air being pulled up into the atlantic mix and high pressure never too far away.

nacho libre

So at least the rain will be warm. . We have to face facts we are going back to our traditional summer weather; rain for most of Ireland, with the best of any weather further to the South East. I don't think we will see a repeat of 1976 due to the jetstream profile, but the Azores High may extend its influence over us at some stage into July

Gonzo

Looks like we have cross model agreement for a big pattern shift this weekend with the form horse back in charge along with generally cooler temperatures overall. It was looking hopefully a few days ago that we would go into July with some very warm to hot weather but looks like that ain't going to happen now with the cool north atlantic firing up the low pressures with our name on it.

We have to hope that this is only temporary and that we can get a proper extension of the azores high in July but it's always a bit of a nauseous feeling watching the Atlantic come back just as we are getting close to the prime mid summer period.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120738258#Comment_120738258

Atlantic back to spoil the party. I just hope that this cooler showery weather won’t last too long and that it’s not a conveyor belt. I can handle a week of it but no more!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120738476#Comment_120738476

Here in the east it felt like mid April until a week ago in terms of temperature, we've only gotten the warm temperatures going and now the Atlantic looks back in business for the time being. IF it's only a week to 10 days then that would be fine but any longer than that I'll be looking into booking a long overdue holiday to Spain because we haven't had any long sustained spell of warm and sunny weather other than a few days over the past week (eastern half of the country), which had unsettled periods mixed in with it. we have another 10 weeks of summer to go we have to keep fingers cross that July at least delivers a proper extension of the azores high lasting at least a week.

TheMilkyPirate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120738501#Comment_120738501

It's been warm and sunny since the end of May here in the south east bar a few days over the weekend there and they weren't even that bad. This is the nicest stretch of weather we have had here in a long time. This isn't Spain or the Caribbean lads take what you get and be grateful it's not pissing rain.

pauldry

In over 60 percent of the charts I've looked at July looks atrocious. In the other 30 to 40 percent July looks roasting. I guess it will be much worse than June fir the West anyways but today's GFS has mid teens and rain. That can go right away.

We might get a poor July and good August or maybe this El Nino now kicks in and brings higher than normal rain and storms to boot.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120738855#Comment_120738855

100% of those charts are wrong tho :)

Hairypoppins

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120738501#Comment_120738501

At least it will feel an awful lot warmer here in the east of the country with the Atlantic back in charge as you say

nacho libre

I would not put too much stock in the ec46, but it seems to be showing a blocking signal returning in July, but that can easily change to something less settled. With this in mind just over a week ago it was showing settled weather for the end of June and well into July. With an active el nino and the jetstream going further north we could be cool and unsettled for a while. However maybe if we are lucky the Azores High will settle things down for a week at some stage in July, but I doubt we will see any settled period lasting longer than that.

Strong and Faithful

GFS 12Z and azores popping it's head up this day week. All up in the air still.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120740493#Comment_120740493

It will be flattened a day or two later. A return to cooler and unsettled conditions to see out June is fairly likely now according to the model output. If we are lucky the Azores High might pay us a visit later on in July.

sryanbruen

Certainly no sugarcoating it, the change in Arctic profile and the MJO activity dying has been key in the late June high pressure bust. Looking like a fairly pronounced changeable spell lasting through the first week of July based on the EC ensembles. We watch for mid-July for the next chance of high pressure. We should stop comparing to the spell we just had through May to mid-June as that was exceptional.

Only thing is, it'll take heavy rain or quite long fetched northerly winds for it to go cool so I wouldn't expect temperatures to be that far from the norm and may continue above average still, particularly in the more sheltered southeast. On the other hand, the excess warmth in the ocean will probably result in higher risks of an atmospheric river setup for the northwest more akin to what we see in late autumn/early winter or "modern" Augusts with the exception of the past two.

Sorry for the bust summer lovers, you win some you lose some. Just more evidence that long range forecasting is purely experimental.

Strong and Faithful

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120743541#Comment_120743541

Yes, a fairly irish summer pattern. The south east doing best. It doesn't look like a serious amount of rainfall. There should be decent enough spells.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120743696#Comment_120743696

As long as temperatures remain relatively warm 18-23 C I’ll be happy. I cannot stand cool (below 18C) summers.

Hopefully we will still manage to get decent warm spell of sunshine. East and southeast looking to be the best spots I would say.

As folk said above hopefully the Azores high will pay us another visit in mid July.

Elmer Blooker

summer northwesterly = dry for eastern areas, fresh sunny mornings, clouds over at around 10, cloudy all day, cloud breaks around 7 …… rinse and repeat.

Strong and Faithful

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120743887#Comment_120743887

Yes. There's no very cool north westerly. Mostly westerly and the sea temp to the west is well above average.

scouserstation

After this weekend it looks like we will be going back to our usual summer pattern ie. partly cloudy with temps in late teens/early twenties, a few showery interludes on some days, nothing too substantial to worry about really over the next 2-3 weeks, after that is anybodys guess but I would say at some stage in July we will get a decent run of warm/hot dry weather, temps easily reaching late 20s or even breach the 30 degree mark,

This has been the pattern over the last few years where we seem to get a really good run of weather in July, the last few summers weve had either average or disappointing weather in June followed by a much more improved outlook in July, dont see why this year will be any different, especially the way things are shaping up with a potential for AAM rise and a rise in ocean temperature also playing in our favour for very warm or hot weather