FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120703587#Comment_120703587

Next weekend and start of the following week looks wet though.

Hopefully that low stays out in the Atlantic and heads south as so many have done the past month.

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120703754#Comment_120703754

I’d say that trend will continue with the models underestimating the block.

sryanbruen

Suspect it will be quite wet and possibly thundery early next week, too much evidence to go against this. Some places will be very wet but that's the nature of having all this warm, unstable air that could go boom at any point. Completely expected this going into the summer - high pressure to our northeast and low pressure over Biscay. I see this rinsing and repeating in the foreseeable future with another rise in pressure likely closer to the country following this. Very humid and warm outlook with no end in sight.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120704140#Comment_120704140

If this continues in to next month, it will be interesting to see the sea temperatures.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120704722#Comment_120704722

Baltic would be my scientific estimation.

squarecircles

12z gfs is getting very toasty towards the end of june.

pauldry

Ya was noticing that too. Looks like over 20c is normal this Summer. Its been 22c to 24c in Sligo almost every day. Bar today and another day were 19 or 20c. Last year June here was 13c

Looks like a thundery few weeks like July 2006 possible.

Thekeencyclist

Any ideas if any Rain is expected in the next couple of days in the Northwest?

Met Eireann is saying no rain but Yr.no is giving a lot of rain

#confused #farmerneedstomakesilage

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120713789#Comment_120713789

Plenty of rain in the northwest and indeed other parts of Ireland over the weekend and early next week.

Low pressure will dominate our weather over the next 5 to 7 days at least, however the models are playing around with the idea of things becoming dryer as we enter the second half of next week and into next weekend. GFS 00z turns us slightly plumey for a a few days with temperatures possibly getting close to 30C but that is very much an outlier.

There is an extreme outlier that gets things hotter than the operational run so it's not completely on it's own.

Currently I wouldn't feel confident of this very warm to hot turn in the final week of June but with a few members doing it, it is something to keep an eye on over the next few days to see do we get an increase in member support for what could be potentially another significant warm event for the month of June. However I feel this will impact SE UK and Benelux countries rather than have much impact on Ireland.

squarecircles

HOT

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719207#Comment_120719207

I don't want it particularly, especially if it will be humid, but if we must get it I would love to see the temperature record challenged at some stage this Summer.

Jock_Ewing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719349#Comment_120719349

I feel the temperature record is going to go in the next 5 years. We'll be getting better synoptic by the year. The 33c last year was on a half cloudy day with light, very warm showers, if it was a bit sunnier the temp was broken. 13/14 August producing 32.5 in Durrow Laois. When 2 hrs daylight has gone and the sun angle dropped 7 or 8 degrees.

Even this year seas are already well above average temperature. We have more mini droughts each year. Hard dry ground like now is more conducive to heat build up. We're winding up to it I think.

2015 is the last washout summer.

Gonzo

Just to note the GFS 12z from earlier today really went off on a bender with some fairly hot temperatures for the final week of June, up to 30 or 31C possible across the country but it is an outlier however there are more and more of them appearing, lets see what the pub run brings. The warm to hot ensemble runs probably won't verify for the current snapshot timeframe but gives signs that something very warm to hot probably will verifiy during July.

At least 4 of the 12z set gets us to the +17C upper air temperature range with a large amount of them getting between +10 and +12 for the final week of June. Not to be taken seriously right now but another major warm to hot spell seems likely at some stage this summer.

nacho libre

If the current ECM output in its latter stages is correct,we may be going back to a more traditional Summer pattern of low Pressure to the North West with any drier and brighter weather on offer towards the South East of England

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721257#Comment_120721257

The European monsoon. Is. Coming.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721263#Comment_120721263

That sounds ominous

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721257#Comment_120721257

GFS has been hinting at this for a while now too but hopefully we will see another decent spell of weather or 2 before the end of summer, although I don't think we will be see a repeat of a prolonged 4 to 5 week dry spell.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721313#Comment_120721313

It's a bit disappointing if correct considering recent ec46 longer range output was promising for much of July, but it's just another timely reminder not to give too much credence to it. I won't be sorry to see the back of the humidity though.

sryanbruen

On a more serious note, we look to finally see some motion globally that could explain the changes in the positioning of the high pressure. This summer so far, we've had a northward displacement of the high pressure system away from the Azores and I saw a theory stating this is a big player in how extremely warm the North Atlantic is. Very active MJO is likely to blame here, strange to see such a warm North Atlantic during an El Niño. We look to be going towards a more traditional route of high pressure from the southwest with pressure lowering significantly over the Arctic by late June. Ireland will be difficult to pin down but the north at the least would probably not be as pleasant as it has been.

On the other hand, such a change in patterns can give rise to extreme heat building over Iberia and subsequently that pushing north to give record-breaking 'heat spikes' or brief heatwaves that we've seen so much of in western Europe since 2015. Spain had a very wet period through May but things can change very drastically as shown through this June with it only getting hotter.

So I do anticipate another period of warm, dry weather via high pressure influence towards later in June or into July but perhaps not as strongly over Ireland as previously expected. The new EC46 has been very consistent with placing an anticyclone over us through the middle part of July which is typically our most frequented period for heatwaves in this country. Consistency doesn't mean it'll be right though.

nacho libre

Yes, the Azores High will probably nudge in at some stage but I don't think we will see a repeat of what we just had,namely any high will probably be flattened due to the declining influence of the global drivers you mentioned leading to a more default pattern for us.

.Donegal.

Looking like a return to the climatic norm with sunny south east seeing the best of it with a threat of more cloud and rain in the NW.

I’m struggling to remember a spell of weather like it. 3 weeks without a drop of rain is mad for my location. And only 0.3mm fell to break the drought. Was pretty much 24 days for proper rain and it was localised in nature , other areas of Donegal have been drier and largely missed that.

Not every day during this spell was wall to wall sunshine but plenty were. Some summers it can feel like a miracle to have wall to wall sunshine from dawn to dusk for 1 day so we have been spoilt this year. As much I would love for it to continue I can’t complain and rain will be good for nature and to replenish the water levels.

Gonzo

some outrageous looking heat wobbles on the gfs and gem today, they are outliers but the GEM outlier gets us to +20C upper air temperature and a few of the GFS members gets us close to the +14 to +18C range.

a warming trend on the GEM ensembles for final week of June with some of the runs really taking off.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120723856#Comment_120723856

Go wan to feck!! Family holiday in Kerry last week in June!!

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719349#Comment_120719349

Yes I absolutely agree where well overdue it at this stage, 35c I hope

Gonzo

the models still playing around with some warmth for the final week of June especially the gem. Not as many hot outliers this morning but one of them gets us to +24C uppers but that has basically a 100% chance of not verifying. Many of the members go between +12 and +15 which is more sensible for Ireland, those would still provide a nice level of warmth if we can get some dry and sunny weather for the final week of June.

As for the GFS it keeps the unsettled theme going with the Atlantic back in control for the time being right into the final week of June but hopefully things will become clearer over the next few days are we going to remain unsettled or will we get a respite from the showers and rain into the final week of June with some warmth and sunshine.

The long range extended models are all looking fairly confident of a warm to hot July with high pressure regaining control fairly quickly but we shall wait and see, the long range models regularly get things wrong and flip to another solution within a few days.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120726081#Comment_120726081

I think using the word 'respite' from the rain is a tad OTT Gonzo. Almost the entire country didn't receive a drop of rain for over 3 weeks running. Dublin didn't get a drop of rain for 26 days straight I think. We almost need a respite from the drought.

Yesterday it pissed rain in Dublin - I was out doing a 5k race in it! However it was the first drop of decent rain in the capital in weeks.

If it rains every day between now and the end of June, I think we can talk about needing a 'respite' from the rain. Until then, we should try stay a bit realistic...

Any other decent weather we get between now and the end of August is a bonus.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120726747#Comment_120726747

I really don't like rain much, 1 day of it a month is enough for me! I'm not the only one who is not overly happy about the unsettled turn, heard people in the supermarket moaning over the rain and hoping the good weather is back as soon as possible. Obviously none of these people are farmers myself included but sure water from a watering can gets the job done with the plants during dry spells. I would probably be much better off living in a country with a guaranteed dry and hot summer and a cold and wintry winter but Ireland is where I ended up living by default so I make the most of the ideal weather conditions when they do happen.

and back on topic just looking at the 12z charts and certainly there are opportunities for more warm weather over the next 2 weeks and perhaps some short lived dry spells. The current unsettled turn does not look like it's going to be prolonged and uninterrupted. We look as if there could be a fair deal of south-westerly winds over the next while with us on the boundary between unsettled conditions to our north-west and much dryer warmer air to our south and east with some dry and warm to very warm days likely at times. The east and south of the country could do quite well out of this if charts verify, seems fairly close to what we were experiencing last July.

sryanbruen

Very intentional cherrypick purely for archiving sakes and not to be taken seriously at this point in time, GFS control run went off on one including 2 days of 37C in England and 30C in Ireland - even 31C in Dublin on the 30th June. Did Gonzo foresee this by mentioning July 2022? 🤨

Gonzo

As Syran mentioned above certainly opportunities in the models for some very warm to hot weather. The GEM today has thown in a few more hot outliers in the mix, now with 2 of them getting to +20 over Ireland and several more of them reaching +16.

The control run which Syran pointed out went on a bit of a mad one, easily seen on the ensemble graph all on it's own.

The GEM overall is warmer than the GFS with majority in the +10 to +17C range and the 2 +20C outliers.

This may all come to nothing but the models need to be watched over the next few days to see will these outliers turn into trend setters.

Robwindstorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120728081#Comment_120728081

I am still a bit worried about the positioning of the jet stream around us until the end of model runs. The weather seems to settle into wet and dry patterns lasting weeks these last number of years. I am obliged under an environmental scheme rule, not to cut silage or hay until the 1st of July, so I am nervous after the drought often comes the flood.