FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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GFS 18z showing some fairly warm conditions to build again from this weekend after a fairly cool day on Friday. Temperatures possibly getting into the mid twenties again across Munster, Leinster, mid western areas and low twenties across the northwest during the early days of next week.
Bring it on, a possible 3 to 4 day blast of late summer warmth.
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Just checking the 00z now and the GFS seems to be backing off the Atlantic onslaught alot. One of the main drivers for this big flip with the GFS on the very unsettled September charts is the MJO which is promoting high pressure for our region during early to mid September. This MJO also helped with forecasting the recent heatwave and the July heat spike which showed up on the models well out in to FI.
A fairly big shift in the GFS ensembles as well towards high and dry for the first half of September on the 00z. Once again it looks like the unsettled Atlantic forecast could be a complete and utter bust with very dry conditions to continue for the forseeable future and temperatures staying above normal through September. As we're still in August it's a bit early to tell how all of September will shape up but if this September was to run similar to September 2021 that would not bode well for Winter 2022/2023.
Will the 06z and 12z revert back to the unsettled and cooler September scenario or will we continue with the high pressure fest?
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Weekend looks mostly dry across the east, south and midlands, maybe the odd isolated light shower. A bit more rain towards the north-west but nothing heavy, just annoying light rain or showers hugging north-western areas.
Rainfall over the next 10 days looks very light away from western and north-western coasts.
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![GFSOPEU12_201_1[1].png](https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/5296R2OH1W56/gfsopeu12-201-1-5b1-5d.png)
![GFSOPEU18_195_1[1].png](https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/S9UIWUNG68U6/gfsopeu18-195-1-5b1-5d.png)
Today's 12Z and this evening's 18Z for next Thursday at 10pm...
That low over Iceland is getting obliterated! High pressure firmly taking over the roost this weekend and all of next week! Going to be very dry and if this pressure keeps building - quite sunny too.
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The overnight GFS run has a low pressure over us as we enter autumn with plenty of rain in many areas with central, northern and eastern areas getting the heaviest falls. The low very slowly pulls away to the southwest, allowing warm air to approach from the south. Hopefully this is an outlier (unless you like cool and wet weather).
18:00 on Thursday 1st September:
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ECM also picking up on that nasty little low and it hangs around Ireland for 3 to 4 days.
GEM not as unsettled as the GFS or ECM and drops it down through the UK and Ireland around the 3rd/4th of September.
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There was the warning that the model reliability naturally goes down the tubes which we always see in late August and through September, and at the moment, we have two areas of interest that have a relatively low chance of becoming a tropical storm. Whilst not saying this is entirely the reason, I'll get onto the other in a moment, undoubtedly it is having an effect to some extent. Now the other reason is perhaps the models are finally trying to pick up on a major pattern change that we have not seen the dominance of since May 2021 with mid-Atlantic ridging starting to develop and a corresponding trough near us. We did see this briefly in late November 2021 but this was very much the exception. Pattern changes are always difficult to anticipate. Persistent warm areas of high pressure have tended to ridge into the UK & Ireland since the final days of May 2021. The pattern has been recurring again and again resulting in prolonged periods of warm and dry conditions, sometimes extreme and record-breaking as with mid-July 2021, early September 2021, mid-July 2022 and early to mid-August 2022.
I wouldn't be a betting man at the moment with what we can expect, however a traditional warm and dry back to school week is unlikely I think as 2022 continues to rewrite the rule book in many ways. We will see out the final days of August 2022 on a relatively dry note with sunny spells and somewhat warm conditions but unremarkably so, talking only low 20s for inland and western areas whilst the east coast could actually be relatively cool with an onshore easterly wind. Meanwhile, there seems to be somewhat of a trend to drop a trough from the northwest towards Ireland by September 2nd. This morning's models show this being parked over Ireland whilst the east of the UK draw in quite a warm airmass from the continent again. This trough sits around the country for several days bringing plenty of rain and being blocked off heading east by high pressure over Scandinavia. The GFS yesterday was much more towards Greenland blocking and bringing notably cold conditions for the time of year around the 4th-6th September with daytime maxima around low double digits and night time temps in single figures, the 06z yesterday morning especially showed a long fetched northeasterly flow that would be freezing cold in mid-winter. These were on the cool end of the ensembles and were undoubtedly over the top but they weren't total outliers so cannot be 100% ruled out. Significantly milder this morning but still unsettled.
The long range models, namely the EC monthly and the CFSv2, are also trending towards mid-Atlantic ridging through September 2022 and a corresponding trough to the east which isn't obvious on the CFSv2 but there would be. ECM chart is 500mb height anomaly forecast for 5th-12th September. As I say, would be a major pattern shift on anything we've seen since May 2021 but will it happen? A very warm, dry and sunny August followed by a cool and unsettled September, there's something we haven't seen in a while..
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