FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366511#Comment_119366511

This is something I have noted too Danno. I have used it a few times to forecast the weather for that period before. It seems to be reliable for poor weather or in the case of great summers, a change back to more normal unsettled conditions. I can't think of much exceptions off the top of my head (1995 is a biggie). It's not one of the singularities noted by great weather historians such as Philip Eden (which rest in pieces Eden) but I personally would regard it as one much like early September warmth, mid-July heatwave, June monsoon, Christmas storm and mid-March settled period.

Gonzo

For what it's worth I have a weather app on my computer which shows todays weather and everything over the next 8 days but when I click on each day it gives the temperature record for the area and the year it was reached. Up to July 25th most of the temperature records occured in the past few years but from 26th July to July 29th the temperature records from that 4 day period are all from 1995 and 2006. The final date on it is July 30th and that maximum was set in 2001. Proves how crap the final week of July has been through the past 16 years creating a tone that sets up an autumnal August. We usually get another final taste of summer during early to mid September with the back to school week in particular.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366560#Comment_119366560

I'll give you a record of daily maxima for every single day of the year for either Dunsany or County Meath if you wish. It's what I'm here for 😜

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366525#Comment_119366525

Most Augusts have been garbage since 2004, although 2006 was decent. 

Thought last August was allright, second half in particular. Think the last day or two were horrible cold though (maybe that was 2020).

pauldry

Yr.no has upped the rainfall for Sligo to 40mm for weekend but just based on one set of runs. If there's consistency in the next few sets it could be the first washout for a month.

igCorcaigh

.Oh!

https://twitter.com/JoeWeather_/status/1549846668148985859?s=20&t=WGmE3kaKjnjFlJq2iHtQkw

Gonzo

Hints of a warm up in the models for 1st week of August but there is alot of uncertainty with it being so far out in the unreliable timeframe. It's an attempt at a ridge but the jetstream is far to close for comfort.

hatrickpatrick

Some serious eye candy showing up on the 6z GFS from 312h onwards, massive high and temperatures in the mid twenties. Haven’t been paying as close attention as others, but I feel like the end of the first week in August has been raised for a few days as a potential warm spell redux so one to watch!

Gonzo

After a fairly unsettled and warm weekend, the coming week will see a cool down to temperatures slightly below average until Friday. It will be mostly dry but a few light showers are possible across western and northern areas. Temperatures over the next 4 to 5 days generally 14 to 19C and perhaps closer to 20C in the south-east.

Next weekend looks very unsettled at least on the GFS with a deep area of low pressure providing showers or longer outbreaks of rain for the bank holiday weekend and could last well into the first week of August.

The first week of August looks unsettled with a chilly north-west to south-east airflow moving bands of blustery showers or longer outbreaks of rain across the country from northwest to south east. This could be a very wet week particularly across the north-west. Chilly with temperatures low to mid teens across the north-west and high teens possible in south-eastern areas.

We finish up at 384 hours in the same cool and unsettled pattern with low pressures circulating one after another between Greenland and Ireland on this particular run.

The GFS has been hinting at a major pattern change to cool and very unsettled conditions from the Bank Holiday weekend for some time now and if this is correct we could be in for a very cool and unsettled first half to August. With some areas of the north-west already very wet from this weekends rain, flooding could become a possibility as we move into August.

Everything past this Friday is in the unreliable time frame however considering this is August we're talking about there is a fair chance we are in for another traditional August. GEM also showing hints of turning very unsettled from next weekend. ECM is not as bad as either the GFS or GEM but there are hints that unsettled conditions will form after the bank holiday weekend.

I am hoping this forecast can be binned because nobody wants August to start off like this. Still time for the models to backtrack and keep things warmer and dryer. The GFS in particular has been showing some very unsettled charts recently and I hope by the end of this week, that the models don't look as grim as what is showing up this morning.

Gonzo

GFS 6z not as grim as the 00z which is a total horror show. Yesterdays 00z did something similar. Majority of GFS runs including the 12z and 18z recently are showing it to be possibly unsettled next weekend and then a mix of warm and cool spells for first 10 days of August. It appears that the Azores high is going to have a very tough fight on it's hand if it wants to ridge in over us properly with the Atlantic putting up a very strong defense.

Elmer Blooker

weird chart? Has anyone ever seen isobars like this?

It doesn’t make any sense to me but what would I know! 🤔

Gonzo

That ECM chart is showing a fairly unsettled weekend from Saturday afternoon and lasting into Tuesday with spells of rain or showers, heaviest of the rain across the north and west. Following days will feature more rain but not as heavy as the bank holiday weekend. Temperatures becoming cooler after a warm start on the Friday, winds mostly light.

I wouldn't be putting too much effort into planning an outdoor weekend for the bank holiday going by the todays charts or the ones over the past few days.

almostthere12

The GFS and ECM are both going for a nice build up of high pressure from the 5th of August.........hopefully it comes off as could be a nice stretch of decent weather!!

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395604#Comment_119395604

They hold some weight for reasons I mentioned last week in the summer thread when I said our next best chance of a push of high pressure from the Azores is through the second week of August based on the usual teleconnections looked at to give hints of what could be ahead in the longer range. Could be even earlier than that going by current output but expectations firmly grounded for now.

pauldry

Damn it's going to be 40c again in UK when I go to London isn't it

sryanbruen

There seems to be a signal across all models for some kind of ridge to build up from the southwest around 4th-6th August. Yesterday this ridge on modelling seemed to have more of a foothold with this morning's runs being more transient but followed by another ridge after a couple of days of Atlantic influence again. This morning is more in line with what I'd expect.

The prospect for a ridge from the Azores is based on what goes on in the tropics as the MJO is set to go into a similar phase to that we seen in mid-July. In July, we were kind of unlucky the ridge never gained a foothold to give more prolonged sunny days as it tended to be just to our west allowing in cloudy but warm tropical maritime fed northwesterlies or far to our east which allowed the exceptional heat to build and peak on 18th/19th. I suspect similar will occur in August at this current lead time unless we see a more sustained push of high pressure, it seems to be that kind of summer (not great for the north and west where it has been very poor). *Cue the pig scutter comments from Mayo* There continues to be a large residue of exceptionally hot air to the south and sea surface temperatures remain well above average which would limit modification. If this heads in our direction, I don't see any reason not to think England will reach the high 30s again and eastern parts of Ireland would reach near 30C provided the wind direction is southerly offshore. However, suspect the airmass won't be quite as ridiculous as July which was unprecedented.

There is the possibility that the ridge may build over Scandinavia which would usher in easterly winds. Scandinavian highs in August can be hit or miss. They can give fog to eastern coasts or countrywide warmth and sunshine. As recent as August 2020 featured a Scandi High but the airmass was very unstable and humid so much of the country seen a lot of cloud, especially in the east. Meanwhile, one of our warmest and sunniest on record August 1947 (only bettered by August 1995) also featured a Scandi High.

I am sick of being disappointed by August as a summer month that I just have zero expectations for it now. Late August last year was fabulous until final few days but much of the month had been usual August muck. Come on weather gods, after the poor May to July, I think the north especially deserve a lovely August!

sryanbruen

Lovely stuff GFS. It is not a total outlier though is on the warmer end. There is a warming trend through the second week of August coinciding with the push of an Azores ridge as described above after maybe a northerly following the initial ridge later next week.

One to keep eyes on.

sryanbruen

No changes this morning, everything remains as in the posts above. Some rain to come in the days ahead, particularly around Monday/Tuesday time then a ridge builds in with a relatively cool airmass embedded followed by a warming trend as first ridge weakens and a renewed push from the Azores arrives. Very dry once the next week is out of the way. The midnight GEFS show this perfectly.

sryanbruen

Again no changes on the output this afternoon and evening. Both GFS and GEM showing classic warm anticyclonic conditions with high pressure slap bang over top of the country. Day by day temperatures would be in the low 20s regularly and widespread including the northwest. GFS shows 25-28C being achieved in the southern half of the country from Monday 8th to Sunday 14th, as far as the model goes. Bags of sunshine would be likely to achieve those highs.

ECM is also very dry and anticyclonic but as far as it goes out to the 8th August does not show much warm air underneath the ridge with a bit of an easterly wind. Still would be talking widespread low 20s if the sunshine is there.

Reminder before all this does occur, it could get quite cool late next week as the trough which brings the rain early on will clear eastward and allow a northwesterly/northerly flow temporarily. ECM again the coolest option here with mid-teens maxima through Friday 5th to Sunday 7th and single figures at night. GFS gets rid of the cooler air greatly quicker, as does the GEM. ICON goes as far as Friday and is more in line with the ECM at that timeframe.

sryanbruen

Still looks largely settled on model runs this morning dominated by high pressure but GFS 0z was another warm one similar to yesterday's runs whilst the 06z falls more in line with the ECM and the warm air takes a while to get here with the anticyclone tending to stay more out west ridging into Ireland. GEFS 0z were solidly warm and dry after the initial northerly toppler (bit strange to say those two words in summer).

The ECM looks decidedly cool and dry as far as it goes with an Atlantic ridge rather than a central based anticyclone over Ireland. As a result, there would be the threat of cloud and showery conditions into the north and east.

GEM still looks very warm and dry by Monday 8th as it did yesterday.

UKMO/ICON go as far as Saturday, both looking cool and settled by then.

Looks like Met É is seeing the settled weather coming as stated in their extended outlook this morning:

"FURTHER OUTLOOK: Current indications suggest that high pressure will slowly build from midweek onwards, leading to mostly dry and settled conditions."

Nothing mentioned here about the temperature though, how quick will the warmth build or will the cool conditions stay for a little bit as the ECM has been saying?

sryanbruen

I've not posted in a few days here as I would be like a broken record with the models being consistent on their outlooks. It has been a long while since I've seen consistency like this. I'm surprised at the lack of posts from others too to be honest.

High pressure makes its way east-northeastward through this weekend and ridges close to the country for much of next week. Initially it will be relatively cool due to a northerly/northwesterly flow on its eastern flank. This will be replaced by a much warmer airmass by Monday 8th with rising temperatures. The placement of the ridge will always need firming up on closer to the time as to how much temperatures will take off with regards to wind direction and cloud cover. Mid 20s in the southern half of the country looks a safe bet at least by mid-week. The north as usual always with the threat of cloudier Atlantic air filtering in around the top of the anticyclone but that's par for the course as with vast majority of warm spells. Hopefully this one will be more kind to you!

There's the risk of things turning a bit more volatile by the second weekend of August as things turn a bit more plumey on recent GFS runs so would increase the chance of extreme heat returning though unlikely to the extent of mid-July due to the airmass not being quite as ridiculous or the sun being quite as strong relatively speaking. Until that, it's a case of rising temperatures after a cool/cloudy weekend with a lot of dry weather.

sryanbruen

Been a wobble last night and this morning... the ECM continues to act strange and different from other models. Whilst it has fallen in line with other models for this weekend into next week as with the progression of the anticyclone, unlike the GFS it is tending to show retrogression of the high again towards mid-week and later next week. The GFS shows the opposite happening and up until this morning's 0z, the GEM too. The GEM has shown a more ECM solution with a northwesterly flow re-establishing by Wednesday 10th and the high dramatically weakening quick.

ECM ensembles are much more conservative with the level of warmth being on supply compared to the GEFS whilst the operational being on the cooler end. The Met seem to favour the EC here with high teens/low 20s early next week.

More runs needed.

pauldry

It's August. I don't think the North and West will do well from this. South and East will though. Windier and Cloudier in Connaught and Ulster but an odd warm sunny day here too. I think by midmonth more unsettled for Ireland but UK and Europe will continue to sizzle.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119423194#Comment_119423194

Don't think the "it's August" matters really as it might as well have been August since May of how frequent westerly winds have been!

Also before it's gone, might as well archive (don't take as gospel, pure deep extended stuff here) this GFS 18z run in FI from last night.

pauldry

The It's August refers to the fact that it generally gets windier and colder at night in the North and West but as Western Europe is on fire maybe this will be different to most of the others that are generally monsoon.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119424119#Comment_119424119

Cool enough in south Laois last night with an air temp low of just above 5c and Gmin just above 1c!

The models are struggling to pin the movements of this high as the hurricane season gets going, so expect alot of chopping and changing over the coming few weeks.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119432250#Comment_119432250

Let’s just hope we don’t get any remnants of hurricanes coming our way this month. That can wait till September please.

Gonzo

Just taking a look at the models for the first time in almost 2 weeks. A ridge of high pressure will extend into Ireland from this weekend. Rather cool at first with temperatures 18 to 21C over the weekend. Temperatures will lift up from Monday rising to low twenties with mid twenties possible in many areas. High twenties possible in a few locations away from coastal areas around Wednesday to Sunday.

In the extended range low pressure from Greenland will try to dive south across Ireland and the UK bringing more unsettled and cooler weather but it remains to be seen how much this will influence us. The high may track out into the mid Atlantic but some of the runs keeps it closer to Ireland and keeping us relatively dry.

Overall the incoming high pressure looks to mostly favour central, eastern and southern parts of the country with higher temperatures and more in the way of sunshine. Northern and north-western areas will always be more prone to cloud and Atlantic influences so temperatures there will be lower in general.

Next Saturday could well be the warmest day of the week based on the current GFS run with temperatures possibly getting into the low 30s across southern areas before things gradually turn cooler from Sunday. This upcoming spell of warm to hot weather is unlikely to be as warm as the previous heat spike for Leinster with sea breezes more at play this time around keeping temperatures mid to high twenties at best with 30C+ confined to inland south-western areas.

It remains to be seen how cool and unsettled it becomes from August 15th, but there is a fair chance of another warm to hot spell in the second half of August or beginning of September.

Gonzo

Not much change in the models overnight, temperatures are on the rise from now and should reach mid twenties for much of next week and into next weekend. Temperatures generally 22 to 27 or 28C. We may still see 1 or 2 places get to 30C next week but temperatures of 30C will be very limited this time around. This spell is likely to be more prolonged compared to the heat plume we had 2 weeks ago and more in the way of sunshine. Temperatures will not be as hot as that spell either with sea breezes keeping eastern and southern coastal areas cooler than during the heat plume. Overall this should be the best spell of summer weather this year with hopefully bags of sunshine and very warm but pleasant temperatures. I don't see any breaking records going on with this as this is typical Azores high summer weather, homegrown heat rather than imported winds from Africa/cental Spain.

It remains to be seen what happens after 17th of August but it is likely we will see a breakdown to cooler and much fresher weather by the 3rd week of August.

Looking further ahead into the extremely unreliable time period the models are hinting at things staying rather warm and dry for much of September which is something we don't want to see if your hoping for a better winter than last year. We have had several dry autumns in recent years so I wouldn't be surprised if the dry theme of the past year continues into the autumn. However this ongoing theme of high pressure and lengthy dry periods with brief wet interludes can't go on forever and there has to be a flip to a more prolonged dominent conveyer belt Atlantic driven regime at some point.

pauldry

We are in a dryer than normal phase certainly even in the Northwest where Monday was the wettest day in a while there was only 11mm of rain.

This coming week will likely be the best of the Summer nationwide and even the Northwest is getting sun in between brief mists mainly overnight and in the morning.

Week 3 is certainly cooler and fresher. If you look at the weather for all of 2022 so far the lows and rain have been brief and benign weather has dominated even if windy at times. A few warm spells too but rainfall is low.

Even in Sligo the river is low and parts of grass is yellow.