FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Tazio

Friday 19th on (FI chart) is noteworthy for the south -- we could be looking at some interesting levels of rain on very dry ground.

mr.stonewall

The type of rain will do very little to resolve soil moisture deficits. Majority of ground has a natural slope. When that volume of water falls in such a short time on hard ground most of it runs straight off. It can cause rivers to rise very quickly. The only way the to resolve SMDs it a few days of 5-10mm of misty rain. This really lowers the evaporation rate and starts to drop SMD.

Imagine a sieve with dry rice. Pour a bucket of water over it quickly, it will dry out with serious run off. Then do similar but this time mist water on it for a sustained period of a few hours. The difference is huge

Tazio

Agreed; heavy rain on very dry ground would cause other issues for sure. We've deep bore-wells here locally; I'm choosing this year to ignore the levels. Ignorance is bliss at the moment :)

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119443819#Comment_119443819

I had a peek down the well yesterday. It's about 10 metres down to the water but I can see no real change in the level since the Spring..... No pun intended 😉

Tazio

^^ thank you for that; phew. :) TBH I think the last time I saw our well drop significantly was the Autumn of 2007.... from memory that was a long dry spell.

(EDIT :: sorry mods for going off topic on this thread - I'll shut up now. )

Tazio

Looks like 19th Aug we're on for that rain again here in south.... (still a long way off yet of course).

(Mods - feel free to delete chatter above)

Elmer Blooker

Hello?

Gonzo

If your fed up of the warmth and sunny weather probably not a great idea to look at the GFS 12z! After a brief interuption this week it looks like we may go back into a lengthy spell of high pressure. Some eastern areas may not see daytime temperatures lower than 20C until September if the GFS 12z verifies. However I feel everything past this Tuesday is uncertain so would need to see more runs to believe this high pressure fest will carry on for the rest of the month.

Gonzo

GFS 12z a fairly significant shift to warmer weather after a bit of a cool down this week coming. Hopefully we will see further shifts to high and dry over the coming days.

Elmer Blooker

I’m becoming increasingly optimistic for the second half of August, we are seeing a lot of this.

Gonzo

Yep Elmer, plenty of high pressure fests showing up recently on the GFS at least. Over the past year I have found the GFS far more reliable than the ECM or GEM when it comes to trends, sometimes the CFS extended also can show hints from along way out.

There is a good deal of uncertaintly over the next few weeks but I'll be amazed if we don't pull off another decent shot of summer before mid September. We are unlikely to see 30C again this year but a spell of low to high twenties with high pressure seems likely at some point over the next 2 to 3 weeks. As much as I would like a warm to hot September that can be a bad thing if you want to build up hopes of a decent winter and I have a feeling we're in for a rerun of September 2021.

Midway through May I thought we had finally broken the year long spell of high pressure fests and above normal temperature anomalies but I was wrong and here we are back in the same position as this time last year after a mostly dry and very warm 6 week spell since the start of July. The only difference between now and last year is that the first half of August has truly delivered and we may not be done with the warmth yet, probably just another brief interruption over the coming week before were back under high pressure central.

Billcarson

How many months since July last year have been above average for temperatures? Must be nearly all of them. If we want a decent winter for cold ( although that of course wouldn't be good for heating bills) we need to break out of this overall warm period of the last year.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119469720#Comment_119469720

There hasn't been a single cooler than average month since May 2021.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119469720#Comment_119469720

On a national scale, all of them since June 2021 inclusive. May 2021 was the last colder than average month. April and June were closer to average locally. This spell of mild anomalies is even longer than the ridiculous 2006-07 run.

igCorcaigh

I think we have to acknowledge the forecasts that predicted the 40C that occurred in England a few weeks ago, which was well out in FI at the time. Weeks beforehand, when everyone was WTF??

I don't know much about the modelling behind the forecasts, but they are impressive at dealing with such a complex system as weather.

doccy

whatever side of the fence you fall on this is the new normal, for now at least mild winters and decent summers are decent for the island

fits

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119470279#Comment_119470279

If the rest of the world is burning we won’t have it to ourselves for long. People will be coming here to escape the temperatures elsewhere.

Danno

Temperature wise, the last weekend of August is looking decent on the GFS 06z run...

Aaaand... the all-too-familiar 1st of September "Back to School" is a clear blue sky morning. You can nearly always bet on Sep 1st to be clear and sunny to start the school year. (Traditionally Sept 1st was back to school day or the following Monday if the 1st fell on a weekend day... simpler times).

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119470267#Comment_119470267

Yes and no. A broken clock is right twice a day as they say.

Up to 7 days the models are very good now (though for Ireland it's maybe closer to 5 days if you're looking for a very accurate forecast).

After 7 days it's still very, very hit and miss.

Yes - the GFS in particular picked up the 40º impressively far in advance. Bit it's given incorrect long-term forecasts hundreds of times over the past year as well (as have all the models).

sryanbruen

I can't say the teleconnections provide much additional confidence to add on this occasion for the prospect of another push of high pressure from the Azores towards late August and early September. They do suggest there will be some kind of ridge but at what position, extent and strength? Usually we do see warmer weather in early September stereotypically coinciding with back to school week. It's one of the weather singularities with the highest percentage of frequency that keeps occurring. I said the same in late May/early June which this year was quite cool. It seems 2022 likes to rewrite the rule book in many ways, will it do something more traditional this time?

Reminder that we're coming into the time of year where model reliability naturally goes down the tubes due to tropical cyclones being difficult to forecast, can get caught up in the North Atlantic jet stream and change the weather patterns dramatically from settled to unsettled or vice versa via warm air advection. It's been a quiet season to date but how long will this last with the prospects of La Niña returning which typically leads to active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Questions, questions, questions, ...

Gonzo

GFS 12z isa bit more encouraging for next week. Between now and Monday doesn't look great temperatures genearaly mid teens to high teens, coolest on Saturday with low to mid teens generally. After Monday it should warm up with high teens to low twenties back and towards the final days of August hints of mid twenties but that is along way off. Hopefully over the next 5 days we will see further improving signals for sunshine and decent warmth for the final week of August. It can't be much cooler than it is today.

almostthere12

ECM now is in on it with the high pressure nearly directly over us by Friday next week so looks like this is gaining a bit of traction across the models.

sryanbruen

Reasonable signal there from the GEFS 0z for some kind of ridge to take over by day 10 stretching from the Azores to Scandinavia.

Met also mention in the further outlook: "More settled conditions may develop later in the week. Highest temperatures remaining in the mid teens to low twenties."

whatever76

YR weather has cork city being miserable with rain on Sunday . of course planning an outdoor event - is it pretty accurate at this point to plan for rain from noon on Sunday ?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119484872#Comment_119484872

I wouldn't be planning any outdoor events this weekend as it will be a washout with bands of rain and showers on both Saturday and Sunday, between 10 and 25mm of rain over both days.

whatever76

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119485965#Comment_119485965

😫 - getting too used to settled/dry weather !! bring back the heat wave !! thanks for the warning !!

Gonzo

Fine settled weather should come back after this weekend towards the middle of next week. Next weekend could be very nice indeed but the warmth would not be to the levels we had over recent weeks.

igCorcaigh

ME are forecasting temps of 26C to 28C for Cork City next Wednesday and Thursday, but cloudy or wet. It's a while away yet, but some humid heat might be coming our way?

Gonzo

Things look like they may settle down from next Thursday but it's going a little flimsy/messy at this stage and temperatures will remain close to normal or a little above at times between now and end of August. I don't think we will see temperatures much higher than 21 or 22C between now and the 1st of September. Certainly no signs of real warmth on the models other than standard end of summer fair weather for the final week of August which may not be completely dry.

Dazler97

Are models still the same for the further outlook