FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

11-07-2022 09:03PM

Looking at the latest 10 days charts from ECM this evening, it would appear that there will be a breakdown with the bay of biscay low in charge for next Monday and Tuesday but afterwards it will turn dry and warm again beyond. The precipitation that we get for early next week, could be the difference between water supply rationing or not here. The farming community will have a keen interest on the possibility of thunderstorms for sure in 7 days time.

Little snowy old me · 11-07-2022 09:17PM

That's a shame however the heatwave last July here was stunning. It was hot and sunny for 7 straight days and felt incredibly hot at times. I remember one particular day and even beside the sea's edge it was uncomfortably hot. Was it a once in a decade or more event? This weekend will tell all.....

mcburns07 · 11-07-2022 09:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119323665#Comment_119323665

Once in a decade? We've had multiple similar spells almost as good in the last 10 years, 2013 and 2018 had great spells too.

Little snowy old me · 11-07-2022 09:23PM

Mainly referring to Donegal and yes we had good spells then but the one last year was by far the most intense.

Gonzo · 11-07-2022 10:42PM

Summer 2022 might in time get rememered as a summer with short bursts of very high temperatures with cooler interludes. The July 2021 heatwave was at least 7 continuous days of heat, this time around it's more like a few occassions of 2 to 3 very warm days.

But looking back over the past 5 years in Meath we definitely seem to be getting warmer temperatures a bit more regularly than in the 80s, 90s and 00s. Temperatures of 19 to 23C are nothing special we get those regularly through June to early September but getting past 24C was always a stumbling block and getting past 25C a rarity here in Meath due to sea breezes or warm uppers not reaching it this far north.

Over the past 5 years getting to 24C is no longer considered an achievement and getting to 26C is where it starts to become more difficult. The stumbling block is now 27C and 28C is maybe once every few years.

I doubt i'll see a 29C or 30C next week but would love to get another 28C, that would make it 2 years in a row.

squarecircles · 11-07-2022 11:24PM

25 AT 9AM

squarecircles · 11-07-2022 11:26PM

THEN LATER HIGH 20S/30 WIDELY

32 IN THE MEATH REGION AND MIDWEST

Gonzo · 11-07-2022 11:28PM

This pub run has lost itself. A 32C in Meath is about as likely as a 30C on the Shetland Islands! Fun charts to see but this pub run is a bit too much to take in any way seriously!

pauldry · 11-07-2022 11:31PM

Britain's chances of getting over 40c are lessening now. Some place there may touch it and that would be a record. Here 30c looks attainable on latest charts but we know things can moderate closer to the event. e.g. snow, storms, frosts but rarely rain.

John.Icy · 11-07-2022 11:31PM

18z hotter than the 12z for Monday. Much of the country nudging 28-30 degrees. No 40s for the UK here but seriously widespread intense heat for them. I'm in London for a few hours on Monday and it'll be toasty as.

Tuesday looking very warm now too for many, especially the east. On second look this is a sizeable jump in warmth here on Tuesday.

Neddyusa · 11-07-2022 11:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119324285#Comment_119324285

Agreed. However, looking its likely that most of the Royal county will be nicely above that 26 threshold for a couple of days. 😉

sryanbruen · 11-07-2022 11:38PM

If it's of any interest... in the county of Meath, I get the following months that each threshold was achieved. Although this is not related to FI charts in any way, then again lots of posts haven't been.

This includes the stations Dunsany, Navan, Warrenstown, Kells, Dunmoe.

Gonzo · 11-07-2022 11:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119324310#Comment_119324310

4 days in the high twenties with some low 30s for Meath. I'm fairly convinced this has never happened in Meath during any of our lifetimes. Finding it very tough to take this pub run seriously. It's possible for Shannon or MT Dillion but certaintly not Meath.

Gonzo · 12-07-2022 12:03AM

This pub run keeps on giving. After the 4 day period of high twenties to low 30s we stay mainly high pressure dominated with low 20s throughout and then the odd mid 20s day here and there. Not a drop of rain away from Donegal/Mayo right out to 312 hours.

sryanbruen · 12-07-2022 12:04AM

Just taking a moment to bank these ridiculous charts.

12-07-2022 12:25AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119324304#Comment_119324304

The 40c might chop and change on each run for a while yet. Hard to say about 40c but the overall record being challenged looks a decent shout at this stage, could all change though.

Gonzo · 12-07-2022 01:25AM

Tonights unbelieveable GFS pub run is not an outlier. There are roughly 10 other members that go hotter at various points. The mean has now shifted from +14 to +17. Hottest outlier gets to +24. Unbelieveable stuff. I have never in my years of model watching seeing anything quite this extreme.

Surely the 00z and 12z tomorrow will be a bit more sensible. This uppers are nuts even for London, nevermind anywhere in Ireland. This ensemble graph is basically the same as it is for London in terms of uppers, just a degree or 2 lower.

Gonzo · 12-07-2022 01:32AM

Tonights pub run also starting to show some interesting risk of thunderstorms.

Meteorite58 · 12-07-2022 01:41AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119324447#Comment_119324447

I think all the charts need to be taken into consideration at this stage, I think that the high 20's close to 30C is very possible going by the consistency of the output but I believe it is well within the bounds of reality to get over 30C too. With the build up of heat over the weekend after a mild to warm week, the peak might nudge it over 30C and who knows we might see coming close to or the record being broken.Why not. Taking into account quality and accuracy of equipment in the past and how relatively recent these records were then it would seem very plausible that they might be broken in our life time, maybe even twice!

This is hot air that is partially travelling over very high ground temps in Spain and France and crossing the sea that has warmed up nicely too, actually forecast to be warmer then average and moving over warmed up land here as well, some of the warmed air might also be sourced from the UK come Monday too.

We will see where wind direction and the position of the LP will play a big part no doubt as the warm airs are steered in over us, might even be bit a bit breezy on Sunday and with a long fetch overland possibly from the South then air temperatures might peak further up the country as the sun warms that airmass even more through the day, could be some mighty Fohn in action also.By Monday the airmass looks to be fully established and with a bit more heating should give us those temperatures into the high 20's or over 30C or close to the record or.......😉

Gonzo · 12-07-2022 12:58PM

Icon is a model which I find generally downplays temperature and weather extremes for Ireland and this model still looks very warm for Ireland.

+22 uppers over Cork on the Monday.

Final frame only goes to 12pm on Tuesday 19th. The 15:00 chart if we could see it would probably go for 30.

From tomorrow we will be entering a slightly more reliable timeframe so Sundays/Mondays heat potential could go to the other thread as the heat will build from early Saturday.

Gonzo · 12-07-2022 01:19PM

The UK Met has something slightly alarming for Monday night, I love high temperatures but not at midnight.

Sunday looks nice and warm but nothing exceptional.

Monday gets to 30C

UKMO only goes as far as midnight on Monday night/Tuesday morning and showing 28C over Meath midnight, Surely this can't be right.

Would love to see the Tuesday 12z chart but the UKMO does not go this far.

sryanbruen · 12-07-2022 01:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119326351#Comment_119326351

That shows 28C over Meath as the max temp in the previous 6 hours, not the temp at midnight.

JanuarySnowstor · 12-07-2022 05:49PM

After a wobble this morning the charts are actually upgrading the heat this evening!

Ahead of the ECM we have agreement o a very hot humid airmass over us from Sunday to Tuesday. The record could well be passed!

Overnight temperatures could remain in low to mid 20s.

Expect Met Eireann, if not tonight, by tomorrow to issue warnings and for it to make headlines! Probably in conjunction with the UK Met office. I expect this mornings wobble is why the UK Met held fire today!

stephenjmcd · 12-07-2022 06:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327934#Comment_119327934

Uk met issued an Amber warning yesterday if I'm not mistaken

pauldry · 12-07-2022 07:10PM

Imagine if we get 33.2c and just miss out on the record. Though I think 30 or 31 would be more realistic.

Donegal Ken · 12-07-2022 07:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327934#Comment_119327934

Met Éireann will probably issue a weather Advisory in the coming 24 hours and warnings closer to Friday. Can't see them issuing a warning this fair out. Generally only inside 3 days warnings are issued.