FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

WJL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334782#Comment_119334782

ECM this eve is hopeful of warm weather returning.

Gonzo

The models are hinting at a return to warm potentially hot weather again in the final days of July possibly extending into the start of August.

Mid to high twenties building again towards the end of the run with the Azores linkng up to a Scandi.

GEM wants to turn us warm again by next weekend, low to mid twenties.

The Icon is also having a go at forming some form of high pressure towards the end of it's run but this is only a few days after this weekends heat ends.

I would say we won't have to wait that long for another shot of warm weather.

Sammy2012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119342785#Comment_119342785

Gonzo how accurate is that chart for next Friday?

WJL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119342785#Comment_119342785

Thanks for all your work Gonzo. Meteorite, Sryan, Gaoith Laidir, off the top of my head. All excellent and very even mannered.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119342799#Comment_119342799

As it is FI, anything past 4 to 5 days is not reliable. This FI thread is just for looking at trends in the models and at the moment there are hints that things may begin to warm up again but let's get the next few warm to hot days over with first and see where we are at the start of the working week in relation to next weekend.

Sammy2012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119342855#Comment_119342855

Sorry totally understand! It's hard enough to predict the weather on a daily basis at times.

WJL

I've a feeling we'll get a better August this year

That abnormal pattern of poor Augusts for 15 years has to change.

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119342883#Comment_119342883

Last August was great in Roscommon.

Beach days every week and several days up to 30C. Are you in the East?

WJL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343172#Comment_119343172

In the east. Lovely end here.

fits

It’s at the stage now that I truly dislike August because it has been so rubbish in the south east for years.

Gonzo

GFS 18z what is in store after the heat spike from Wednesday? A bit cool at the start but soon afterwards we go into a fairly ridgey pattern especially for southern and eastern areas with temperatures generally high teens to low twenties. Very little rainfall. The north and north-west look quite a bit cooler with more of an atlantic influence and alot more rainfall. it woudln't take much to change this outlook to a dryer and warmer scene nationwide than what is indicated here.

Shepards Delight

Beach in Roscommon wow must google that it sounds good.

beggars_bush

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119344175#Comment_119344175

A beach along the Shannon would be a good idea.

Works in most European countries on lakes and rivers

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119344175#Comment_119344175

Google whether Roscommon people have cars too while you're at it 👍

almostthere12

Great GFS 0Z this morning, keeps high pressure going until the end of the run.

Little snowy old me

Very quiet around the forums this morning. Never a good sign....

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119344866#Comment_119344866

Really all I am reading is continued high pressure and rain fall amounts reduced for Tuesday. That looks like a good sign to me🤷‍♂️

Little snowy old me

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119344878#Comment_119344878

OK this is positive....

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119344866#Comment_119344866

Very quiet because many people including myself like to spend a bit longer in bed during the weekends.

This mornings 00z is a bit of an outlier with temperatures lifing up and taking off once again not far from next weekend and extending into August, Loads of high pressure and scope for more Spanish/Africian plumes. A complete and total outlier for now.

From what I can remember almost a month ago the imminent heat spike was an extreme outlier at one point on the GFS and over a couple of days this outlier brought alot more members on board and very quickly we got cross model agreement. Outliers rarely deliver but sometimes they can be on to something.

Gonzo

Some temperatures from this very hot outlier end of July.

mrsnrub2.0

I know we're rightly all concentrating on today's weather, but does anyone have any update on next Sunday 24th weather in Dublin? All-Ireland Final on that day but the long range forcasts on Met Eireann don't look promising for that day.

United road

I cant answer and will let others better qualified confirm

but by way of some positive news, MTs morning forecast mentions nice warm weather for Saturday again, highs 21-24!

Gonzo

I'll try do an update tomorrow once the historic madness from today is out of the way. Next weekend isn't looking too bad in Dublin, low 20s.

Pangea

How is next week looking guys? thanks.

Calibos

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366254#Comment_119366254

I'm most interested in Saturday and Sunday. Bray Airshow. Hoping if the forecast is indeed Showers and Sunny Spells and 20-22ºc, that Brays Micro-Climate sheltered by the Wicklow and Dublin Mountains and maybe even some oul Fohn effect will work its magic and produce a clear, dry and warm Airshow weekend. I don't care what weather the rest of the country gets next weekend. LOL.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366349#Comment_119366349

Saturday and Sunday looks slightly mixed in Leinster, some showers, these could be hit or miss and temperatures 19 to 23C on the weekend, warmest sunday where 24 or 25C might be possible.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366254#Comment_119366254

Back to where we started in June - a cold wind but not too bad in a sheltered sunspot ..... if the sun comes out that is!

Gonzo

yeah looks like a brief warm up this weekend mainly in eastern and south-eastern areas which could do well if sheltered from the Atlantic as much as possible and if the sun comes out for any decent amount of time. Most places will see showers especially across the north and west. Next week looks cooler everywhere but temperatures in the east should still stay close to 18 to 20C. Rainfall amounts will be average or slightly above average in the west and below normal across the south and east. The ECM is the chilliest of all the models for next week. Not the most exciting or summery outlook but keeping a close eye on the Azores possibly coming back in about 10 to 14 days time. Overall we look to be back on a mainly north-west to south-east airflow for the forseeable future.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366477#Comment_119366477

Just looking back at my Davis records since 2008: Laois County Weather Online - Daily Records (laoisweather.com)

The period of 26th to 31st July inclusive never got any strong warm spells (25c+) since then.

It seems to turn that little more unsettled and/or cooler in those last few days of July more often than not.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366511#Comment_119366511

I noticed this too. Last Summer was generally very good from last day of May to middle of July but that final week of July last year really went down the tubes. Summer of 2020 couldn't tell any difference as that summer was rotten from start to finish. July 2019 I spent most of that in Spain (last time I was abroad) and that was an average summer which had some decent warmth at times during July but I think it also got fairly poor final week of July. 2018 most of the great weather was done by final week of July as well.

This summer so far is having a very predictable pattern.

June week 1: garbage. June week 2: good. June week 3: decent. June week 4: garbage

July week 1: garbage. July week 2: decent. July week 3: amazing. July week 4: average to slightly garbage.

Most Augusts have been garbage since 2004, although 2006 was decent. Long run of poor to garbage Augusts at this stage and most of these kicked in final week of July.