FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Summer 2022.

If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

Thanks

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The past year has generally been dominated by areas of high pressure ridging over Ireland with generally warm and dry conditions. Autumn 2021 was unseasonably warm at times and very humid and often dry. Winter 2021/2022 was warm and a non eventful winter. We did have a few weeks of very wet conditions only to go back to dry and settled soon afterwards. Spring was generally warm and settled but May has been a shift to a more unsettled and cooler pattern as time went on. We ended the final day of Spring on a very chilly and dank note. Overall we've had almost a year of warmer than average temperatures and many settled months with only the odd interupption from the Atlantic with a few wet weeks scattered here and there.

How is the early part of Summer 2022 going to play out? At the moment there is alot of uncertainty about the weather after a few days time. The GFS has been fairly grim over the past week showing a fairly unsettled outlook for the first half of June. The other models aren't much better.

There is hope that we may begin to see an improvement for the second half of June with ridging from the Azores high and a lift up in temperatures to bring a sense of summer. We are currently in a relatively unsettled and cool pattern but things should begin to warm up slightly from this weekend and into next week. This weekend should be drier than recently but areas of low pressure may begin to bring back unsettled conditions into next week.

The GFS 12z keeps us generally unsettled as areas of high pressure tries to ridge towards us but never quiet makes it.

We generally look Atlantic driven over the coming 2 weeks with hints that maybe things might begin to settle down from mid month. I am hoping for a shift to warmer and drier conditons in the models by next week.

Gonzo

GFS ensemble for the next 2 weeks is as wet as i've ever seen for 'summer'.

I'm starting to get a real Summer of 2007 vibe from the latest set of charts/models. This is going to be a wet June. I think it's safe to say the year long relatively dry and warm pattern is well and truly over since the 3rd week of May and this looks like continuing well into June, possibly getting to the 3rd week of June.

odyboody

Oh joy,

hopefully not "the new normal"

cool wet summers and mild dry winters

squarecircles

"Unfortunately this seems to be the pattern that will lock in for a while, fairly frequent unsettled weather that while relatively mild will not allow any really summery warmth to develop for the foreseeable future."

M.T Cranium.

and im done with model watching for june,such a relief.

An amazing climate,the way you can bin an entire month,

such is the relentlessness of the pig muck once it starts.

denied All those beautiful long June evenings, buried and choked under a grey gun metal shield

while the rest of Europe laps up those beautiful summer days.

gas.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119152495#Comment_119152495

Nowhere in northern Europe is having particularly great weather right now.

Yes, the Med is fabulous - as it is every year.

Still plenty of time between now and the end of Sep for nice weather.

OldRio

Some friends flew out to Cologne in Germany from Knock. They left behind rain coolness and dark.

Forecast 26C today with sun.

eon1208

That frequent damp is not good in agriculture at all. Hopefully the HP will break this atlantic by mid June or show signs to that effect. Great work guys. Keep us posted. Its appreciated.

Gonzo

GFS 00z gives a slight hint towards things settling down at the very end of it's run. It stays very unsettled until June 18th and finally we get a ridge in from the Azores by the 20th. Some very small baby steps towards summer.

The CFS extended is also looking to build some warmth and high pressure around a similar time. It's worth noting this is very unreliable stuff.

I feel like it's mid winter and i'm back clutching at straws again wishing against the power of the Atlantic.

Gonzo

A low to medium chance of a summer wind and rain storm in about a weeks time between 10th and 12th of June. This would bring very windy, cool and wet conditons to Ireland if it verifies.

ECM has it too but not as windy, just a very wet system crossing the country.

GEM has it too, could be quite windy and very wet.

Hopefully this passes more to our north and avoids us, but it's something to keep an eye on. Regardless we are in for a very unseasonal spell of weather which may feel quite autumnal over the next 7 to 14 days.

Chris_5339762

I was supposed to go to the Skelligs that day... cancelled it given the torrid forecast for the week. Reckon this could be a named storm? The GFS is showing it up to be probably the odd west coast yellow or orange warning. Could be nasty given everything is in full leaf.

fits

Going camping in Connemara mid month. Not feeling too hopeful!

We have had glorious weather in Donegal since early Friday. Another dry day forecast for tomorrow :)

Gonzo

This is probably an outlier but a surge of heat across Spain and France towards the end of the GFS run, gets the +28 uppers almost into the north of France and the +20 into south coast of England. Surface temperatures in France would widely get into the 40s with this. This is even warm enough to get surface temperatures beyond 21C into Ireland.

sryanbruen

Not much to say than what has already been said but in terms of external drivers, I don't expect much from the rest of this June to offer in terms of warm, dry weather. The odd fine day will occur but they will be scattered out. Any hopes of improvement or ease out of this westerly pattern that seems to be dominating this June are quite far out into July due to tropical amplification.

Just windy, blustery, showery days interspersed with spells of rain. Typical westerly fare which has been infrequent the past year bar February and May to an extent. Nuisance weather.

Gonzo

GFS 12z offering a few days of warmth near the end of it's run. Right now I feel i've more chance of winning the lottery.

Gonzo

GFS is starting to hint at an improving situation in the weather after a very dissapointing start to the summer so far. Up to a day or two ago, this coming weekend was looking like a washout but not it's not looking too bad and could stay mostly dry. Great news for those heading to the Duran Duran outdoor gig on Sunday.

A ridge of high pressure should keep us mostly dry from Sunday afternoon and much of next week is looking dry especially in southern and eastern areas.

Monday and Tuesday should stay dry throughout the country courtesy of that ridge. After Tuesday things get a bit uncertain in how settled we get or does the Atlantic roll in. Currently it's looking like the Atlantic may actually have a battle on it's hands with this high pressure. The GFS 6z keeps the ridge going over eastern, southern, south-western and central parts of the country.

The far north and north-west of the country may be more unsettled with Atlantic systems closeby to our north-west during Wednesday and Thursday. It remains to be seen if the high pressure will win and push these frontal systems away from the north-west or will the Atlantic win and topple over us resuming an unsettled pattern.

On This mornings models the high pressure wins the battle for a while and briefly introduces medium to signifcant levels of heat throughout the country next Saturday. For now I would still take this with a major bucket of salt. It wouldn't take much adjustment for these big lows in the Atlantic to cut us off from the warmth and sunshine.

Temperatures would reach mid to high 20s widely across the country next Saturday if this verified with a 30C possible for Shannon Airport. In reality we are unlikely to get this lucky and even if we do, this warm pulse of air won't last very long over us.

In terms of rainfall the next 10 days could be largely dry with most of the rain falling between now and Saturday night. There is a chance southern and eastern areas will remain fairly dry throughout the coming week.

From next Sunday the models suggest things will be turning signifcantly cooler again as the Atlantic wins the battle at the very end and we are instantly cut off from any warmth.

In the very extended range we open up the artic expressway with a direct notherly plunge, the sort of thing we dream about all winter and never get.

If this verified it would turn things very cool indeed and plenty of showers or rain as it isn't the dry northerly topplers we get in winter. This would be a snowmaker if it was November to March with those areas of low pressures d.

We finish up week 3 of June on a very cool and unsettled note.

fits

Going camping next weekend and feeling hopeful on the latest runs.

Gonzo

Difficult to determine how next weekend will pan out. Could be a case of 2 halves, warm and settled on Saturday and cold and wet on the Sunday. We will need a few more days before we know what will happen. From Sunday it looks mostly dry but the models do indicate things turning unsettled very quickly through next weekend as we get a sudden breakdown from very warm to cool and this could be potentially thundery as well.

From midweek temperatures will lift up, but there is alot of scatter involved in how warm or even hot it could get by Friday or Saturday. Thiswarm spell looks rather short lived maybe not lasting more than 2 or 3 days at most but we are looking at anything from low to medium level warmth up to high level.

let's see what this evenings ECM brings. ECM this morning was also very warm for next weekend but more high pressure orientated rather than plumey burst of short lived heat.

Gonzo

Tonights ECM operational wasn't great for warmth next weekend, it does get warm but it's very short lived. However the various ECM runs are now showing some very warm to hot potential with many of the runs between +15 and +20C upper air temperature which if verified would get us into the high 20s at least. There are also cooler outliers which rollin the atlantic instead or bring down a cold northerly quickly. However the majority of the runs bring warmth low to mid level. Overall the ECM set of ensembles are warmer than the set of GFS charts.

GEM also going for very warm to hot temperatures next weekend. Several of the GEM members are going quite a deal warmer than the operational temperatures below with high 20s to low 30s a possibility.

The GFS pub run is rolling out and is having none of this warmth next weekend. Will we get heat next weekend or will it be a bust and we end up cool and possibly unsettled? Still a few more days to go on this one I feel.

sryanbruen

The same thoughts still apply, not much hope from the rest of June to offer in terms of sustained warm, dry weather for Ireland. The above warm scenario outlined by Gonzo that has suddenly appeared on models is just another one of those heat spikes that have characterised summers since 2015 (bar 2021 and 2018 to an extent) which are useless for providing warmth to much of Ireland unless there is some kind of easterly tilt to the wind as we often find ourselves directly under the trough that is necessary to advect the hot air northwards from Iberia towards Britain. If you're that desperate for a bit of warmth, you might get 1 or 2 days lucky as the high pressure builds to the east of the country before the low pressure topples over the country. Or you know, completely avoids Ireland altogether as is typical.

Once the plume or southerly is over, we are likely to find ourselves in a very unsettled and relatively cool pattern again with mid-Atlantic ridging developing which is all supported by background drivers. Maybe not quite to the extent shown on the GFS 0z this morning which goes full on -NAO and a washing machine of circulating low pressure around the UK & Ireland - Summer 2007 and 2012 esque. Nonetheless, not great. There's a possibility that the situation could turn out less dire like this week for instance with the jet stream displaced more northward but still relatively unsettled, just less so.

Gonzo

The models are bringing this warmth a bit earlier, possibly peaking on Friday (if it happens at all) and an increasingly unsettled and cool pattern for next weekend and beyond. Aside from a few hours yesterday this June has been a pigs ear so far so right now i'd happily take 1 very warm or hot day because once this 24 hour wonder is whisked away we look like we'll be back in the chilly and unsettled pattern which has dominated this June.

While these heat spike seem common as muck for England, particularly London, these are very rare indeed for Ireland and I'd like to see this actually come off for once.

Just for fun this mornings ECM ensemble graph has some crazy hot outliers which I feel are impossible to pull off in Ireland with the hottest one getting close to +25C. We rarely see uppers hotter than +15 in this country, not sure we've ever had a +20C on Irish soil during modern times.

If this heat spike does happen we are most likely to have a 24 hour window of uppers around +10 and not the oven like temperatures of the hot outliers on the ECM.

pauldry

Yes its 8 days away so itl be 19 to 22c at best. This year is a bit like 2011 when we had our twins. Most of June and July that year was teens. When kids were born it was mid twenties for a few days. Prob get one hot week at some stage this Summer but immediate term looks pretty dire. That one day of warmth and prob a few days turning out "not as bad as forecast" is all we will get in next 2 weeks. No heavy rain but showers most days and perhaps a rain event next Friday of 25 to 40mm and cool.

Meanwhile 45c could be breached in Southern Spain by next Tuesday

igCorcaigh

Western Europe heatwave may be on the cards?

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1535184183345221632

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119183381#Comment_119183381

Did reach 20C @ 850hPa on the Waterford and south Wexford coast very briefly around midnight on 28 June 2019 but talking like a few hours at most and that spell was a flop with the North Sea undercut not making the high 850s realise their potential on the surface as we all know. 25C in Ireland would require some crazy Biscay low and North Sea high combination with a long fetched SE'ly directly from North Africa I would think, certainly outside the current climatology.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119183381#Comment_119183381

Yes but even at best its only a small area in the east and southeast where temperatures would be high, most of the rest of the country would be very cool, 14 to 18 degrees at best.A dissapointing plume that would not deliver country wide heat bar a few places in the inland east and south east for less than 24 hours.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z is the best case scenario given the transient ridge at hand with widespread warmth for the country from Thursday 16th to Saturday 18th (yes including Mayo) before the northerly as with all other runs comes in though less of a trough than the atrocities the GFS plumped out this morning. But how likely is a best case scenario like that? Well.. not very it has to be said.

Gonzo

The GFS 12z is almost an outlier. Gets Dublin to about 24C on the Thursday and Saturday and about 26C on the Friday. Get's London near 38C on the Saturday with parts of central France to about 42 or 43C. If it verified the thunderstorms on the Sunday over France would be quite something. The 12z also showing minor thunderstorm potential for Ireland and major stuff over the UK and France.

In reality we're looking at temperatures low 20s rather than the extreme hot outliers.

Hairypoppins

Tonight's ecm looks good for at least 3 days of sunshine with mid to high 20s possible

Gonzo

ECM looks good for 3 days but when you check the temperature it's really only a 36 hour plume of warmth. The warmth get's going in the second half of Thursday afternoon low twenties.

and on Friday is stays until the evening and washed away by Saturday morning.

GEM restricts the warmth to just Friday and in the southern half of the country.

The Icon doens't get it to us at all at least on this mornings run.

GFS turns us warm on the Thursday and into Friday and Saturday.

Out of all these the GFS is the hottest, also the temperatures on the GFS are usually down by 2 to 3C during the summer. I highly doubt we will get the Saturday out of this, the cool air will have whisked the warmth away by then.

Tomorrow the models could look different again.

Pessimistic bunch. All I want is dryness and a bit of sun.

Gonzo

The GFS 6z not great for warmth away from the far east and south, however the 00z was much warmer but an outlier.

ECM also not as widespread or warm as yesterdays runs.

Plenty of changes to come before we become certain of how warm it could get or if we're lining ourselves up for a complete bust instead. This mornings models looks to be more like a glancing blow of warmth.

The Icon is the only model not going for any warmth whatsoever for Ireland and the UK, instead it keeps the heat no further north than northern France and rolls in the Atlantic next Friday. The Icon was the only model which was correct before Christmas as it did not predict any cold spell while the other models ended up in total failure. I wonder is the Icon correct this time also.

Gonzo

Been away for the past 2 days and only taken a first look at the charts since Friday night. The following few days will warm up particularly across southern and eastern parts of the country. Unfortunately it does look like the far west and north-west of the country will not get any of this warmth so the country will be a north-west to south-east split up to Saturday with temperatueres generally 19 to 22C across the south and east from Wednesday and possibly getting to 24 or 25C on Friday. A 26C may happen in one of two places.

Temperatures on Wednesday getting up to around 20C from Limerick to Dundalk and it will remain mostly dry throughout this week, however a few light passing showers may occur if they get inland far enough. North and West of that line it will be cooler 13C to 18C and more unsettled with showers particularly across western coasts and Donegal.

Thursday will see the warmth build across the south, southwest, midwest, midland and east with temperatures generally 19 to 23C. A 23 or 24C is possible at Shannon Airport on Thursday. In a line north and west from Galway to Dundalk temperatures generally 12 to 16C with some showers or possibly longer outbreaks of rain coastal parts of Donegal.

Friday will be the final day of proper warmth, again in a similar position to Wednesday and Thursday. In a line from Shannon to Dundalk temperatures could reach 21 to 26C particulalry during spells of sunshine. It should remain mostly dry on Friday but there is an outside chance of a shower or thunderstorm across eastern and southern areas as the cooler air from the NW moves south-east.

North-West of this line will be significantly cooler, generally 11 to 17C as a sharp temperature gradient between the hot air which by this stage is quickly moving east against the much cooler maritime air across the north and west.

Edit: The GFS is rolling out and restricts the warmth on Friday even with midland and north Leinster perhaps into the cooler air.

Up to Saturday looks mostly completely dry across a large part of the country with mainly coastal parts of the north-west getting some measureable rain.

Saturday will see it much cooler across the country as the hot air is swept back into SE England and on into the continent. Showers or thundery rain could affect southern and eastern parts but that remains to be seen. Temperatures generally 12 to 16C across the country so feeling much fresher.

From Sunday and into the following week looks to remain mostly dry away from the north and west with high pressure in control for much of the time. However the winds will be from a western or northwesterly direction around that high, so temperatures won't be that warm but should feel pleseant in the sunshine across the south, east and midlands.

Temperatures may warm up to high teen to low 20s across the country as we enter the second half of next week, but this is a long way off.

After Wednesday pressure could remain fairly high with temperatures possibly getting to the low to mid 20s once again. If these charts verifiy the north-western areas may also see an improvement in temperatures and settled conditions with high pressure dominating the weather.

The GFS 6z keeps things mostly dry and settled until the end of the month where a break in the weather may happen.

It has to be said take everything past this Saturday with a pinch of salt, this mornings GFS is a bit of a warm and settled outlier in the second half of it's run. The 12z could look cooler and more unsettled for next week on the next run.

Turns out both the GEM and CFS are currently also going for a build of high pressure once we get the Spanish plume and cool weekend out of the way.

Gonzo

GFS 18z dials up summer from Wednesday with a temporary blip over the weekend before turning warm again next week and possibly beyond.

A ridge moves in from the mid Atlantic early next week bringing high teens to low twenties.

The high moves closer to us towards the end of the run and gets temperatures into the mid twenties and possibly higher.

Probably another very warm outlier but the GFS has been pumping these out for the past several runs. The Jetstream stays north of Scotland from early next week with high pressure in control right out to 384 hours.

Little to no rain over the next 14 days over a large portion of the country. Remember this is Fantasy Island so bucketloads of salt.

Are we seeing a flip into proper Summer from this week? I really hope so.

Chris_5339762

I hope so, but I wouldn't mind a week of (nighttime only) rain just to get the ground well soaked. Soil moisture is at 20% on my sensor down in Cork, during the heatwave last year it was only 14%.

Thekeencyclist

Any idea how things are looking for next week?? Is it still looking good for warm + dry weather......

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119214668#Comment_119214668

Next week is still a bit of an open book. Currently it looks like temperatures will be average to warm at times but great uncertainty after Wednesday and into next weekend. Yesterday the models were showing a very cool and unsettled change in the weather from Thursday and into the weekend. This mornings models are showing it staying warm and settled for the most part but this is an outlier so unlikley to verify.

The GFS 6z shows temperatures of 21 to 25C next weekend, yesterday it was showing temperatures of 12 to 16C and plenty of rain. Perhaps by Sunday or Monday we should have a much better idea what is in store throughout next week and into the weekend.

Meteorite58

Not too much rain in the coming week but both main models showing quite wet from the weekend with LP near by or over us, possibly deepening and bringing some bit of a windy spell but timings are very different at this stage.

Upper low and associated cool pool set to be nearby or over us at some stage and with the surface low bringing in frontal rain and variable wind directions the weekend has an added interest perhaps for convective weather and thunderstorms, temperatures getting up to the mid to high teens away from windward coasts at this stage, could see some cool nights also over the weekend.

Gonzo

Deep out in FI signs of things settling down and warming up with an attempt from the Azores high.

The high comes under pressure around the 6th of July but stays mainly intact to the end of the run.

The GFS has been doing this over the past couple of runs but these are tending to be warm or settled outliers. Hopefully more models will latch on to this idea because by July 2nd we will need this warm and settled spell after a possibly very unsettled final week of June.

The ECM goes with a fairly different solution to warmth towards the end of it's run, with very warm to hot air dragging up from central Europe and a volatile area of low pressure moving towards Ireland from the Bay of Biscay.

GEM goes for a similar solution as the ECM with warm air dragging across Ireland briefly before a volatile low sets up over us and turns us cooler.

Meteorite58

Anybody of a nervous disposition look away now!

In general looking on the cooler side, continuing wet and breezy at times with frontal passages.

Total accumulations including this weekend according to the ECM, wetter than the GFS.

Gonzo

The ECM long range 42 day forecast is throwing up quite a few surprises. Basically it looks cool and unsettled over the coming 7 to 14 days no surprises there, but then around the 2nd week of July things start to warm up and settle down. The big surprise is the final week of July and the first 2 weeks of August the ECM wants to anchor high pressure right over Ireland and the UK which would bring very warm or hot south-easterly winds. MT has hinted in today's forecast that August this year could be fairly warm and settled. Could we be starring into a back loaded summer this year? I certainly hope so but of course the exended range ECM is far beyond the reliable timeframe so a huge pinch of salt for now.

Hopefully by this time next week we will start to see a big improvement in the charts across all the models.

Gonzo

First signs of ridging from the Azores appearing on the models for next weekend. GFS looks good for about 4 to 5 days before it turns unsettled again right at the end.

CFS has a go at ridging but it only lasts 2 to 3 days.

ECM also going for it.

GEM however is having none of this and keeps us cool and unsettled. Let's see if the models continue to run with this idea for prospects of things to settle down and warm up from next week to have any sort of believeability. Even if this verifies it looks rather short lived, maybe 3 to 4 days but at this stage i'll take it, already completely sick of the Atlantic muck that has taken over this weekend.

Gonzo

Models continue to show an improvement in our weather from next weekend and into the following week. While this sounds like great news this isn't going to be a prolonged dry spell and the placement of the high to our west will mean that winds will be from a north-westerly direction rather than a south-easterly, so temperatures may not get that high, more like high teens to low twenties due to us being on the cool side of the ridge. July could be another mixed month but hopefully with more influence from high pressure, hopefully not as unsettled as May or June, both of which I have to say have been fairly poor for a large part of Ireland.

As of now it looks we will stay in the current cool and unsettled pattern until at least Friday or Saturday. From Sunday high pressure will ridge in from the south-west with the winds coming around the top of the high across Ireland from a west to slightly north-westerly direction.

As this is the cool side of the ridge expect the onshore westerly winds to keep things relatively cool along western and north-western coasts generally 14 to 18C. Slightly warmer than this across the south and east maybe 17 to 20C with 21 or 22c possible in the far south-east.

As we move into the middle part of next week the high may position itself closer to us, this would allow higher temperatures as we would lose that westerly or north-westerly wind direction.

This would allow temperatures rise into the low to mid twenties across the country away from coastal areas.

As we approach the following weekend, the high may begin to come under pressure from low pressures to our north once again.

Low pressures diving from Greenland/Iceland could well end this settled spell but at the moment we might get a relatively short one week spell of dry and settled weather. The positioning of the high is key to what sort of temperatures we can expect. If the high stays to our west we would end up on the cool side for the most part. If the high positions over us temperatures would definitely then become a bit warmer but it remains to be seen how successful this high sets up close to our positon and how long it can influence our weather.

There is still a good chance that the high will eventually break down with us going back into a similar pattern of weather that we have right now. The washing machine of low pressures may well get another go over us but we shall see.

The ECM and GEM not as warm as the GFS and keeps the unsettled weather going into next weekend and struggles to get the high pressure in over us next week so I think this high pressure solution from next Sunday still has some ways to go before we can be certain of a decent repsite next week.

Gonzo

Another update for the 12z models. GFS is simiilar to what I posted earlier for the 6z. High pressure taking over from Sunday or Monday and lasting for about 4 or 5 days. This time the high centers over us quicker than the 6z with less of a north-westerly but the high continues to move eastwards and we briefly pull in a warm south-easterly on it's departure before unsettled weather from the Atlantic takes over once again.

The GEM is finally starting to latch onto the idea of a dryer spell, however unlike the GFS this is definitely a cool side of the ridge scenario with more average temperatures. In this scenario it would be quite cloudy at times with drizzle in western and north-western coasts so not as good as the GFS. Still plenty of time for this to change. At least the GEM is now looking a little bit better than it was.

The Icon is now coming into the timeframe to show that heights will rise from the start of next week, but we don't get far enough to see any further progress.

The UKMO stops just as the high begins to make a move.

ECM similar to this mornings run, brings in the ridge from Tuesday but maintains that westerly or slightly north-westerly flow.Looking on the bright side next week shouldn't be nearly as wet or as windy as this week and temperatures should improve somewhat close to average or a little bit above.

I think things will begin to settle down from Monday but this certainly won't be a heatwave scenario but that won't stop the rag papers posting about melting temperatures of 18C. This is still 6 days away so alot can change between now and next Saturday. We could all do with a break from the dissapointing temperatures, wind, rain and averageness of what has dominated this summer so far. While southern and eastern areas has faired a bit better during the middle part of June, this summer has been below par throughout the country.

To date my area has only had 4 days of 20C or more this June and unlikely to see 20C again until July. Last summer I had 10 days of 20C+ in June and 22 days of 20C+ in July. Last August brought 7 days of 20C so goes to show how poor this June has been. This summer has a huge level of catch up to even reach the standard of last summer.

We've only had 1 decent nationwide day of summer up to this point, July and August better deliver more.

pauldry

Was that the day I was hungover and stayed in bed for the day?

Feels like Summer has been and gone the past 4 days. Hasn't been remotely mild since Friday.

This next dry spell could be the last chance before late July. There's a repeat performance of this Greenland low coming for early mid July.

Gonzo

GFS 18z rolling out and we're starting to get a better idea how temperatures will be like in the early part of next week. Temperatures will warm up but as this will have a westerly to north-westerly wind direction around the high, temperatures will be limited across the north and north-west and down western coasts. A complete reverse of a high pressure under a south-easterly winds where southern and eastern coasts would have it coolest with the warmest conditons in the mid west and north-west.

Tuesday see's low twenties across much of the midlands, east, south and south-west. Donegal and the western coastal counties taking a bit hit to temperaures with those sea breezes and more cloudy drizzely conditons keeping temperatures there in the mid teens.

Going from these charts, the south-west of Kerry and southern coastline of Cork may see the best temperatures with temperatures similar to the few warm days we had last week and the week before. These temperatures are a bit above average but not by much. However in sunshine it should feel very pleasant.

Overall the GFS 18z is more like the GEM and ECM now where the high tries to ridge in but never quite gets to move in over us properly which would allow much sunnier and warmer conditions. This is a bit like a rerun of last weeks weather where cloud could be troublesum. How long this high pressure lasts is still a bit of an unknown but on the 18z it lasts into the second week of July if a bit shaky at times. However in this sort of setup somewhere like Cork or Waterford could do very well. Throughout this run the warm weather and high pressure fails to have any impact on Scotland in particular with Ireland on a bit of a knifesedge between high pressure and lower pressure. The Jetstream is a little too close for comfort here. The high pressure has a bit of a battle on its hands trying to ridge north with that very deep area of low pressure over southern Greenland and Iceland with it's eyes fixed on Ireland and Scotland. This battle has been in place since May and looks like continuing into July but at least for now the end of the first week of July with the second week should see an improvement in temperatures and less rainfall than the current awful autumnal setup we are in.

Gonzo

The ECM 42 extended has been updated again (updates twice per week) and it is contuing it's trend from the last update which is a warm up during July and for the month to be fairly dry overall. End of July and first 2 weeks of August (as far as the modeling goes to) looks signicantly warmer than average and rather dry too. Of course a 42 day extended forecast cannot be relied upon as everything past day 5 is generally unreliable but good to see that 2 updates in a row now look promising for a chunk of this summer to turn out warmer and more settled.

The ECM short range models are starting to pick up on the drying and warming trend beginning from Monday with a switch from the current cool and wet setup to something much more like summer next week.

Above ECM ensemble shows the upper air temperatures will remain below normal until about Sunday or early monday with wet conditions at times. From Monday the upper air temperaures will go from several degrees below normal to several degrees above normal and we become much dryer as we head through the 1st and into the 2nd week of July. Perhaps things may turn more unsettled again by the middle of July but that's along way off.

pauldry

GFS is a significant downturn bar 3 or 4 days the rest is cold low dominated. Temperatures of 13 or 14c in the West most of month and even only 16 or 17c on the warm days.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119261516#Comment_119261516

In general I think next weeks dryer and warmer spell will be 4 to 5 days at most and then we could be back into the autumnal/Greenland lows for another spell during mid July. This battle between unseasonable summer cold and proper summer warmth has been raging since mid May and we've been on the cold side of the battle for the majority of it. If we are to see temperatures going above 25C at any stage this summer it will be either final week of July or sometime in first half of August. Next weeks dryer spell will be warmer than average but I don't see temperatures going much higher than 23C or 24C. A real possibility we'll have to endure another cool and unsettled Atlantic dominated week like this one during mid July.

Gonzo

GFS 12z still on course for a signifcant improvement to our weather starting from early next week. We start off with fairly standard temperatures but quickly it becomes much warmer as next week progresses and end up with mid to possibly high twenties before a breakdown occurs.Possibly this is a hot outlier and when the time comes low to mid twenties would be the best we can expect. This high pressure is in a much better position than previous GFS runs and gone is the cool westerly or north-westerly winds.

We get one properly hot day with this with GFS going for 28 or 29C which probably certaintly won't verify.

By Tuesday 12th much cooler air takes over from the Atlantic, so in total this GFS runs gives about a week of warm weather which turns increasingly very warm to hot and that includes western and north-western areas as well. The 12z is still rolling out and I bet this is very much an outlier. I suspect this level of heat will be gone on the 18z later tonight.

Gonzo

The GFS operational posted above is not an outlier until the plumey end around 11th of July, that bit is a definite hot outlier.

The ECM 12z very similar to the GFS, builds in the high pressure over us but we can't see any further than 240 hours.

UKMO also on same track but stops at 168 hours. GEM builds the high pressure towards us but is more like yesterday's charts which keeps us in a cooler westerly flow so it's not as warm as the GFS or ECM.

Very good cross model agreement now that things will settle down and warm up from about Monday into Tuesday and on into the rest of next week. This is shaping up to be the first slice of summer this year, let's hope the models stick with this and we get at least 4 to 6 days of warm and sunny weather after a fairly delayed start to the summer.

The main question now is will the high just slide towards us from the west and then retreat back into the mid Atlantic or will it actually sit over us for a few days to bring us properly warm or very warm days.

Dazler97

I really hope this summer isn't a right off, I'm still hoping for hot 25c - 30c weather either July or August, i know last year we had great heat and 2018 but fingers crossed