FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118677463#Comment_118677463

I meant it would be typical if the charts that we hoped for during the winter months actually came to fruition when Spring arrives. I have a feeling once the PV breaks up naturally, we could be in for some unusually cold weather, given how strong it was this year, for a while afterwards

beggars_bush

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118677518#Comment_118677518

you'll have 3/4 extra weeks of frost

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Clare, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very strong and gusty west to northwest winds.

Valid: 08:00 Thursday 24/02/2022 to 18:00 Thursday 24/02/2022

Issued: 12:26 Wednesday 23/02/2022

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118677713#Comment_118677713

Your wish may come true now that we have a significant SSW showing up on the GFS for March 11th. If this verifies I would expect the pattern to change significantly over the next few weeks. Spring could be alot more interesting than this winter.

pauldry

Ara the weathers so freaky now ya could get snowy spell still but March looks like quieter weather early on. After this week rainfall should decrease markedly.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118678147#Comment_118678147

It's not really my wish now, it will all be too late. That said if we happened to get a historic snow storm out of it- something like April 1917 for example, I would be interested, but I would still be left cursing that it did not happen in the heart of winter.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118678303#Comment_118678303

It's too late for me to, about 4 weeks too late. We needed this just after Christmas which could have led to a very different second half of January or February. If this affects us at all it won't be until the end of March at the very earliest. By then even a flat easterly won't cut it, we would need a direct hit unstable northerly or a long fetch north-easterly all the way from the Urals for uppers to be low enough to guarantee snowfall right to the coast and even at that the sun will be melting anything that falls very quickly.

Elmer Blooker

Better late than never.

Warm spring sunshine by day and sharp frosts at night would be most welcome.

nacho libre

The latest GFS is not great if you are after spring like conditions in March. It could bring about a March similar to 2013 if it's correct. Although I believe Ireland missed out on most of the cold that time. In England it was an exceptionally cold month.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118683024#Comment_118683024

No, it was an exceptionally cold month in Ireland too. The only time we did miss out on anything was the snowstorm on 21st to 23rd that brought northern England and Northern Ireland lots of snow. It was nationally the joint coldest March since 1937.

There was a NE'ly feed on the 11th that was very cold for the time of year and did bring snow but there wasn't much convection that you'd expect from such including in the UK, not just us. The pattern became extremely blocked over Greenland by the 20th and daily NAO returns were the second lowest of the century so far beaten only by those of December 2010. The blocking was strong and persistent enough to hold back the low that brought the snowstorm from putting all the country into a milder spell for the rest of March but it wasn't strong enough to fend off the mild air for snow to occur nationally. But the low lost its oomph and was forced southward for the final week and we got a renewed push from the east. I woke up to a couple of centimetres on the 27th from Irish Sea streamers but they didn't last long at all after sunrise.

If March 2013 was a winter month, it would have been very severe. March 2018 had extraordinary low daytime temperatures during the two easterlies but there was a lot of Atlantic influence in between them whilst March 2013 was a more persistently cold month so was a colder month than 2018.

Anyway, getting back to the here and now, there does seem to be a bit of a trend for heights to rise over Scandinavia in early March. How many times have we seen over-amplification on models this winter? More than I care to admit. The stratospheric polar vortex is expected to remain in a strong state and only weaken gradually as you'd expect given the time of year and from a strong base state. Only some extreme FI GFS runs show anything close to a more dynamic stratospheric warming that would likely have effects on the weather patterns and until this becomes a trend, I don't see any reason to believe them. So if we do get a Scandinavian high, it will probably not be the result of the stratosphere.

Another question we'd have then though is, would we be in a southerly flow as a result of the Scandi High and how far north would the warm air advection go or would we find ourselves in kind of a mid-Atlantic ridge/Scandi High hybrid situation with the mean wind direction being an easterly which at this time of year would be cold. The seasonal modelling has been unusually bullish on a very +AO March with record +AO a possibility and as such would usually favour a milder than average month. Looking at the mean sea level pressure and geopotential 500hPa anomaly charts tell the story further with big Euro anticyclone ridging to us and up to Scandinavia as well as troughing pinned in over Greenland. This is a consistent signal across all the seasonal models I have seen and not often I can say such a bullish signal appears on them. This would mean a mild March would be expected, perhaps even a very mild March but rainfall would be variable due to the positioning of the anticyclone and would be a fair amount of cloud as the airflow would be mean southwesterly. Does them being this bullish mean it's guaranteed to be this way? No of course not, could all be very wrong.

Gonzo

GFS now giving hints of a possible easterly setting up around the middle of March. This mornings 00z had a fairly chilly easterly setting in from the 10th. This was gone on the 6z, but is back now on the 12z.

GFS also hinting at an SSW in the extended range. We are along way from either of the above happening. For cold and snow lovers in the snow starved east, this maybe too late already but if we were to get extremely lucky and we get a properly cold and unstable easterly, best it happens mid month rather than end of March of sometime in April, as a proper easterly mid March can still deliver the white gold in decent amounts if the setup is perfect.

We have been teased time and time again since December 1st with Greenland highs, Scandi highs and some cold plunges from the north or east and none of them have verified so a major sack of salt with this.

This mornings 00z

I don't have much faith in these charts happening but with the PV weakening rapidly by this stage maybe there is a slight chance of something properly wintry during March.

Gonzo

AO showing signs of going negative in March, perhaps there might be a chance of northern blocking at some stage during the month.

pauldry

SSW and Low coming from Greenland still signalled to affect our weather in March. Of course way out in the realms but would be interesting nonetheless if it came off.

Gonzo

Spring lands in a few hours and FI charts are all well into the first half of March by now. I've nothing much to say about this winter other than it was extremely dissapointing from a cold and snow perspective and a winter I'd rather just forget about and move on. The Spring FI 120+ hour thread is now open https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058235015/fi-charts-t120-onwards-spring-2022-read-mod-note-in-first-post#latest