FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ongarite

Looks like the lawnmower will be coming out of hibernation if that forecast plays out.

Oscar Bravo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118562732#Comment_118562732

For the first time that i can remember Mayo coco are out cutting grass here in Castlebar since last week in mid January! All grass near round a bouts and grass on the Mall in the middle of town is cut. looks great to be fair to them

Elmer Blooker

Bring it on! Let’s have some nice springlike weather before the arrival of winter in April.

Supercell

They'll have to rename the azores high if this keeps up.

pauldry

Latest GFS brings rain a bit closer so in general more unsettled but drier in South and East. All the run is mild though with just brief cool interludes.

Gonzo

February is once again a complete write off for any sort of cold or snow unless there is a major change over the next 2 weeks which I don't see happening. All the long range models support mild or very mild for the next 1 to 2 months at the very least. This pattern should last into early Spring. Hopefully it will last till mid summer because if it does we could be in for a fairly memorable summer or a trainwreck of a summer if we lose this pattern just before summer and revert to several months of cool and wet. I would gladly give up a bit of hill snow in March for the continuation of this pattern to benefit our summer. A 1976 style summer would be possible if this pattern persists all the way to August but that means holding onto this setup for another 6 months, we're going to need alot of luck for this to remain in place till then.

PukkaStukka

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118564901#Comment_118564901

Dare I say it but if the summer is dry, talk of water shortages will be swift. It's been the driest mildest winter I can ever remember. The number of frosts we've had here can be counted on one hand.

Billcarson

Sometimes the weather is at least partly about timing regards how a year turns out. Will this pattern hold for the next few months? Will it be a year of 2 halves? Dry first half ,wet second half? Will it hold till the end of spring then breakdown leading to a washout summer? Will the end of the year be mild and stormy? Or cold and wintry? Interesting to see how this year pans out and how far into the year the current pattern lasts and what will finally replace it?

Lucreto

I expecting a below average temperature summer this year. The cold air will break out as some point and probably hang in around until August.

highdef

High pressure has been dominant in Ireland and most of the British Isles in general for a long long time now. The majority of the time, high pressure seems to be in force rather than low pressure. Winds have been generally lighter than normal and it's been generally a lot drier than usual. Although unlikely, I sometimes wonder if there is possibly some sort of change in climate occurring that is affecting the weather in our part of the world.

Admittedly, we are entering a period of sometimes unsettled weather but even then, high pressure is still closer to us that usual, generally being located between us and the Azores and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the models show high pressure migrating back up to us soon.

I also wouldn't be surprised if this very post jinxes the long run of generally fine weather and it's going to be horrible for the rest of the year with the worst summer ever recorded to come. 😂🤣😂

Dazler97

It's only 1st February this month isn't a write off models can be wrong etc

Gonzo

Models can be wrong but usually wrong when it comes to weather we want: cold and snow in the winter and high pressure dominating in the summer. It rarely flips from 2 weeks of boring/unsettled charts to something much more favorable, particularly during the winter.

I think it's in our interest now that we see this pattern continue till at least the middle or end of July to get a decent summer. I am worried that when this pattern breaks properly it will be goodbye high pressure for months on end, afterall most of our yearly weather is usually dominated by the conveyer belt from the Atlantic and we haven't really been in this position properly since 2020. August is usually a crap month and if we got June and July decent and then the pattern breaks in August, this should continue into September delivering a cooler more typical September than what we experienced during the autumn. We will need a cool or fairly typical September this year to give us any sort of hope for next winter as we now now that a September filled with low to mid 20s is not a good sign for the winter.

Nobody really knows when this pattern will truly break, it could be happening right now, it could get delayed another month or two or it could break just as summer starts. It could even last right through the summer and into Autumn, that would make a full year of high pressure dominance and mostly dry conditions which truly would be exceptional, it's already exceptional the length this has gone on for already.

jkforde

off topic a bit but isn't this insane low pressure 912hPa GFS model for next Monday up by NW Iceland

Screenshot_20220201-201903.png

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118567206#Comment_118567206

Yes I get your points completely, I absolutely agree I don't want a 2009 summer wasn't it Rihanna with umbrella that jinxed that summer what a depressing summer but great winter, I'm just suprised that we haven't had decent snow or much frosts, barely a storm as well, I just hope march can deliver some cold although with the equinox on 18th we will be getting warmer from then on. I just think over the last 9 months ireland has heated up and I don't want to believe its climate change

Meteorite58

I think the jet looks like entering a more active period , the flow giving us alternating cooler and mild spells of weather, the mild bringing rain of course and the cooler will have some marginal wintry weather , one such couple of days is at the end of next week around Thurs or Fri, could be seeing fronts moving into cold air over Ireland but long way off yet. The GFS jet charts keep up the theme of alternating mild and cooler spells .Run of the mill stuff in general , GFS showing some windy spells at times. ECM showing more under the influence of HP but rain bands getting through ( some look like they could be heavy coming up from the SW ) and the rainfall totals starting to tot up again, the end of the ECM looks quite wet from the S /SW with the Jet slowing down before coming more from the SW. Wouldn't be surprised to see wetter weather on the cards, looks mostly Atlantic driven at this stage.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118567570#Comment_118567570

That was 2007. Very poor summer but also followed by a poor winter. Though the winters did improve after that winter for a few yrs but continued with poor summers (though the first half of summer 2010 wasn't bad) until the good summer of 2013.

pauldry

The temperature in Sligo has been stuck at 9c since February began. The next 2 weeks look 7 to 11c here. Winter will be over by then but we may get an odd cold day in between the mild at the end of the month. We had one frosty night this Winter and a couple of hours another night. Most other nights have not only been above 0c but also above 5c!

Gonzo

Tonights CFS looks like a repeat of last Spring. Staying generally mild until the end of March and then multiple direct hit northerlies for April which would bring wintry conditions at various stages through the month and this even extends into the early part of May. After that we alternate between cool and unsettled and very warm and humid with high pressure from the azores near by. An interesting run.

Tonights GFS keeps us mostly mild but there could be some cold zonality at times over the next few weeks which may give high ground a chance of sleet or snow. This Friday will be one of those isolated days this winter which will actually be colder than average with wintry potential over high ground. GFS also going for another cold day on Friday 11th of February with some nationwide snow but this is extremely unlikely to verify.

Overall we are starting to trend more generally unsettled but staying mostly mild except for an isolated day or 2.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118567726#Comment_118567726

Sorry yes it was 2007,I went to Portugal that year for 2 weeks, saying that I hope sumer this year will be a warm one

Meteorite58

ECM starting to look quite wet out to +240hrs and beyond as the weather train moves up from the SW. other models not as wet , GEM the nearest to the ECM but still a good bit less. Will see how it develops.

Gonzo

The GFS ensembles are beginning to trend ever so slightly cooler again. Nothing really cold on the horizon but perhaps more of a hint of cold zonality and generally more unsettled than charts over recent days. February could turn out to be quite a wet month particularly in western and northern areas with eastern and especially south-eastern areas looking noticeably dryer, althought nowhere nearly as dry as January has been.

This could be the first properly wet month since either last October or August. December finished very wet but the majority of that rainfall fell over the space of a week over Christmas rather than throughout the month.

Meteorite58

Looking at tonight's ECM12Z and comparing it to the other models would suggest that the 00Z was an outlier. Now more in line with the other output.

Billcarson

The 18z gfs shows much colder weather for the second half of next week . Probably be gone on its next run but I would love if it was onto something.

Gonzo

The 18z is nice but unfortunately it is an outlier.

However the mean has started trending cooler again, but do I believe it? We have been here so many times with the ensemble mean trending cooler than average only for it to completely reverse a day or 2 later and the trend is gone back to mild.

pauldry

Certainly more in the way of (cold) rain and wind now and the incessant high is gone a bit more South. Certainly looks like after one of the if not the mildest Winters on record Spring will be somewhat cooler as charts show a lot of pent up cool weather. All fantasy of course.

Meteorite58

ECM colder on the 00Z will see if it repeats in the 12Z later.

Some wintry showers in Northern counties showing up later next week and widespread frosts if the charts hold. GFS showing the colder air and frosty nights until the weekend on it's last run.

pauldry

It certainly looks colder than before as the High has been pushed aside. However really severe frosts looks off the menu as wind seems to feature a lot even with the cold so days like yesterday will probably be a feature

Donegal Ken

The middle and end of next week needs to watch closely. There are some signals coming from models the last few days of a potential threat of a significant wind storm moving close to the country. The Ecmwf models especially the last 2 days seems to be picking up on this also. Alot of dynamics in play will be a interesting watch.

The above image are yesterdays 12z Ecmwf model run and todays 00z Ecmwf weather model run.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599434#Comment_118599434

Yeah it’s after dropping further south on that run. Something definitely to watch….

pauldry

Yep NW would get a battering. I've seen storms on that date trend and go again but the general trend for next week is windy to stormy. Might unbore the Winter somewhat.