FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Jizique

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118503624#Comment_118503624

I have seen a long-term forecast for Germany where for 2 weeks from Feb 6/7 they have temperature remaining sub zero - this will have big implications for gas prices if true

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118505493#Comment_118505493

Interesting, do you by any chance know what model is being used for that forecast? The GFS and CFS don't look to be showing that level of cold for Germany at that time.

Gonzo

I don't see snow cover suggested for any European country on any of the models at low level apart from Greece and neighbouring countries and the far north of Scandi. Other than that it's limited to the highest of mountains such as the norweigian mountains, the Alps etc.

Jizique

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118506123#Comment_118506123

its wetter.de, not sure what they use

Jizique

Gonzo

Models showing signs of back tracking slightly on yesterdays trend to turn things unsettled and more Atlantic dominated in the final days of the month and start of February.

GFS 12z is less ambitious about bringing about a proper change in the weather. We finish up on February 5th with the high starting to take over again. The model has also backed away from a rapid strengthening of the PV and if anything comes weaker into the first week of February and temperatures not really getting below -78C whereas yesterday they were showing temperatures possibly getting close to -90C.

GEM and ECM have also backed away from the Atlantic making inroads here and keeps the high pressure glued over us right up to the end of the month.

CFS continues to show signs of a more unsettled and colder February and a chilly March.

pauldry

January will end up as a very dry month but not driest on record. However some parts of the country will have extreme low rainfall for January.

Also I think (and hope) February will see the Atlantic sweep back. Maybe only briefly but it would be better have very wet weather in February and March than Summer.

Models still tentative though and High still dominating. But dry weather rarely lasts over a month in Ireland especially in Winter even the most boring Winter of all time.

Danno

Another cloudy bland day in south Laois. Featureless sky. There was a notable chill in the air today. Temperatures only maxed at 5.8c this afternoon compared to the 7c to 9c maxes on other days this week.

pauldry

Is that weather I see on GFS pubrun 228hr

Gonzo

Another change on the models tonight. The Pub run breaks down the high from the 30th of January and we move into a spell of zonality with a north-west to south-east movement which drags several periods of wintry showers in a stiff north-west airflow. A few mild periods would be spaced between each wave of showery cold and maybe the odd brief northerly shot thrown in for good measure.

We finish up exiting a cold northerly and the high coming right back at us!

The ECM 12z also hinting at a return to zonality with some rather colder conditions.

Will the models be back showing high pressure dominating into the start of February? We shall see but this latest update is probably one of the more unsettled and colder one in several weeks. CFS also showing very similar to the GFS 18z up to February 6th.

Would like to see the above charts verify, would be a change and may start to feel a bit more like winter.

Gonzo

A fairly big swing to cold and unsettled across many of the models tonight, almost a complete flip. The models yesterday backed off the idea of a significant increase in the PV and now also the AO has flipped from an almost record breaking level of positivity to a major signal of negativity which would promote northern blocking. This is a total flip on this time yesterday.

The NAO stays around average to slightly positive, this is also a downgrade on the positivity from yesterday.

Todays turn of events isn't a promise of cold and snow but it is certainly the most promising set of changes we have seen since the trainwreck before Christmas.

pauldry

Yes looks good

A February trainwreck?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118516153#Comment_118516153

Will have to wait and see where this goes or will it revert back to high pressure. Any hints of cold in the models have been a bust over the past 2 months so I wouldn't put a whole lot of faith into cold charts unless they are still showing by next weekend. The ECM 42 day forecast continues the high pressure dominance all the way to the end of it's forecast into the second week of March! A fair chance the ECM is correct as it has been very accurate about the extent of this high pressure and was even hinting at this back in mid December. It is possible February could remain high and dry from beginning to end with temperatures remaining 2 to 3C above average throughout the month if the high pressure remains just to our south so no frost and mild winds toppling over the high above us from the Atlantic.

We're already seeing a back track on yesterday evenings AO output now staying more neutral to slightly positive pushing back on the big swing to negativity.

Gonzo

Models have completely backed away from anything remotely unsettled or cold and you guessed it, the high pressure remains in business into the first week of February and staying mild to very mild.

Most of the country will not see a drop of rain between now and February 2nd.

High pressure remains in business till at least the 5th of February.

As we enter February under high pressure with days getting longer and the sun starts to get stronger, it may start to feel Spring like with temperatures up to 12 or 14C possible under sunny skies and gentle southerly breezes.

mcburns07

😍 bring it on

mcburns07

Meanwhile in Mykonos..

Generally speaking when you're getting snow in the Greek Islands,it's a sign of a no snow winter untill Easter in our parts

Gonzo

This winter was still born. It never got a chance. December the 1st the NAO and AO started to go positive and has pretty much largely remained positive throughout this winter. There was some blocking in the run up to Christmas and that was our chance to finally get a taste of winter, but it all went horribly wrong for us. Upper air temperatures have generally been between +3 and +8C throughout this winter with the exception of the few days of cold zonality just after the really warm New Years period. The PV has also been much stronger than what the models predicted back in November.

I think much of February will be another write off for cold and snow, althought we may begin to see more of a chance in the second half of February. We may start off initially with high pressure and how long more that sticks around remains to be seen and any break we will get from it will probably be from a relatively mild Atlantic pattern. Greece could be in for a very cold and snowy February. Indeed much of this winter has been cold, they basically have a conveyer belt of cold plunges following one after another.

Chris_5339762

At the moment I'd love sunshine and scattered showers... its been days and days of cloud in Cork with not a bit of sunshine. House is baltic, needs the sun through the front windows to get properly warm.

The ECMWF op run is currently a major outlier as regards next week's Storm in Eastern USA at just T144

Ergo not a good indicator of our weather either

Larbre34

Those hoping for an early spring may think twice. There are bound to be severe frosts at some point in all this calm, frosts which could easily burn any early spring growth.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523823#Comment_118523823

Frost perhaps after February but between now and February 1st not that cold, night time temperatures no lower than 1 or 2C, higher than that in most places and daytime temperatures no higher than 7 or 8C. Any frost over the next week will be patchy and isolated.

Jizique

German 42 day downgraded, still expecting a cold blast, but much shorter duration than last week

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523911#Comment_118523911

I understand that, I'm talking about the 6-8 weeks subsequent, where statistically we will likely see even a few days of penetrating night frosts if a meandering high drags in a slack easterly flow for a time.

The earlier the growth now and in the next 10 days with 10C+, the worse it is.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524424#Comment_118524424

Could be very possible. Last Spring was colder than last winter. We had more snow and frost during April and May than we did last winter and this winter so far. Second half of February and March could be quite cold this year.

pauldry

Yep 2nd half of February now but also week 1 of February could get cold in the East for a few days.

However the High isn't giving up at all.

In 2022 we had a storm on New Year's morning in Sligo. Today is January 24th and there's been 1 frosty morning. Bar that no weather.

Gonzo

1 and a half frosty nights in Meath so far this year. I think we had 2 or 3 max in December. If tonights pub run verifies the entire country could remain frost free until February the 6th, then 2 cold nights and after that relatively mild again. Those 2 cold nights most likley won't even happen and we will just continue bland, cloudy, windless and temperatures between the cool side of mild and warmer side of mild. Temperatures by day over the next 7 to 10 days often getting close to 10C or even slightly above in parts of the south and west.

The 'scatter' on the ensembles from February have had a fairly large swing towards mild with the colder ensemble members becoming few and far between.

The only positive sign I can see is that the PV should weaken quite a bit over the next 2 weeks just by time as winter is beginning to run out of road. Perhaps a better chance of getting in some brief cold second half of February but I wouldn't like to place any bets on a cold outbreak happening.

pauldry

GFS current run showing a breakdown in 234hours of the no weather. February 4th. There's definitely a more unsettled trend for February. It may be delayed but I think the highs will cede from the NW eventually with hail and sleet possible February outcomes.

Gonzo

Starting to feel more confident now that a significant pattern change will take place over the next 2 to 3 weeks to something far more unsettled with perhaps an unleashing of the Atlantic during February. Chances of cold and snow look as remote as ever.

CFS long range wants to finally turn things chilly from the second half of April and into May and a very unsettled and chilly June:(