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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 29-11-2021 2:01pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,247 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note


    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Winter 2021/2022.


    If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.


    Thanks

    With only a day left in Autumn I thought it would be a good idea to open the Winter FI Extended Range Thread a day early since all FI charts are December based.

    After a very mild and dry Autumn how is the first few weeks of Winter shaping up in the run up to Christmas?

    We finally ended the very prolonged unbroken streak of very mild weather with a chilly weekend. This cold air has now shifted to our east and we are briefly back into mild Atlantic air once again till about Wednesday.

    The next 2 weeks look set to alternate between brief mild south westerlies and cooler zonal north-westerlies. For now everything looks mostly Atlantic driven but there are hints that we could get a cold spell around the middle of December.

    The GFS 06z tries to raise the heights over Scandinavia but nothing really comes of it.

    We finish up on 15th December looking on the cool side and fairly unsettled.

    The Control run in extended range is more successful at raising the heights over Scandinavia and we start to drag in really chilly air from the east from the middle of December in the run up towards Christmas. Very unlikely to verify but hopefully we will see more GFS runs run with this idea over the next 2 weeks.

    This does get -10C uppers into the country in a very chilly airflow.

    The cold air stays with us till about the 22nd of December and then a battleground situation between the Atlantic and the colder air to our east leaves Ireland fairly mild for Christmas. All of these charts are of course in the completely unreliable timeframe but I thought it would be nice to open the Winter FI Thread with something seasonal. I feel much of December will alternate between mild and cool with nothing too extreme in terms of cold. At the same time I think the excessively mild domination that we saw throughout Autumn has ended it's run and December could well end up being a fairly average month in terms of temperatures.

    Post edited by Gonzo on


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,247 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    GEM 12z hints at an easterly towards the end of it's run. Unfortunately on this run Ireland is just too far west to tap into the real cold and snow. Wouldn't take much of an adjustment to bring us into a cold unstable easterly.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,247 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    CFS 06z also has an easterly for same time period as the GEM, just that this also includes Ireland in the firing line for some cold and possibly snow.

    This cold easterly doesn't last long but interesting to see both GEM and CFS cooling things down considerably by the end of the first week of December.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭ PokeHerKing


    ECM following suit! Hopefully a sauced up pub run rescues the GFS!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,247 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    The ECM not as cold as the GEM or the CFS but it's looking promising. Once we get tomorrows mild weather out of the way, the ECM has us colder than average from Wednesday right up to the end of the run at 240 hours.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 137 ✭✭ almostthere12


    The 18z CFS run gives the Scandinavian high and the easterly comes into play at +150. Outlier at the moment but the more reliable charts are all over the place anyway so I am going with this one!! 😎



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Yeah, just looked at the CFS, and will post in more detail on the White Christmas thread, but it basically has a very wintry set up for two weeks from next Tuesday - i.e. 6 Dec until about 20 Dec. Then it is milder for the run in to, and the day of, Christmas, but by Stephen's day we start off another extended cold spell. I'd take that.....



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,247 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    CFS 06z is back to zonal dominance. Each run chops and changes like crazy from as soon as 120 hours out.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,902 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    GFS now picking the storm up

    It wasn't there on the pub run



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,247 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    I feel the next few weeks may begin to trend slightly milder and more stormy with a very active jetsteam. Models are still up in the air from next week but I feel we're in for a typical run up to Christmas with very Atlantic driven setup with the PV becoming very strong at least for a while.

    GEM has the storm right over us next Tuesday:

    This is followed a few days later by another possible storm.

    The other models keep the above storm more towards Iceland rather than dropping south near Ireland/UK.



  • Registered Users Posts: 984 ✭✭✭ esposito


    Ah yes, the inevitable milder stormy spell is almost upon us thanks to the strengthening PV which ruins most of our winters for us coldies. Hopefully this won’t last too long and we’ll get a major change to blocking/colder come late December but luck is never really on our side is it so not holding out much hope.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,247 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    ECM 12z delivers a battering on Tuesday.




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,549 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    That’s GFS and ECM both showing this over or near Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,311 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    I could be wrong, but i suspect we will see it diluted on future ECM and UKMO runs.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,247 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Almost a week into Winter now how are things looking in the run up to Christmas? Right now the models are in a great state of uncertainty as the wind/storm event on Tuesday is causing alot of problems in terms of where do we go next. At the moment it looks like we have a relatively cool and unsettled week to come with regular bouts of wind, rain and showers. Temperatures at night may get low enough for some patchy frost during the week if skies clear and winds die off.


    We may get another very windy spell around next weekend or early into the following week. Everything after this Tuesday is rather uncertain so difficult to pinpoint when the next storm will happen.

    The GFS is looking at a big lift up in temperatures for next week starting from about the 13th of December as an area of high pressure moves up from the south or south-west. If this happens we should turn alot drier and far more settled. On paper we should turn alot milder too, however if this high pressure sits right over us and skies clear, it could become very cool to cold with frost and fog keeping temperatures at ground level much lower than the upper air temperatures suggest. If the high pressure ends up producing lots of cloud and spots of drizzle then temperatures on the surface may be average or higher than average.

    On the GFS 12z the high never really sits over us and the high instead ridges towards Scandinavia, drawing up very mild south-westerlies over Ireland in the run up to Christmas.

    We finish up on 21 December still fairly dry but there are signs that the Siberian High over northern Russia will march westwards perhaps merging with the Scandinavian high.

    Once we get Tuesdays wind event out of the way, we may have a better idea of what the weather will be in the run up to Christmas. These charts could look very different in a few days time.

    Post edited by Gonzo on


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,247 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    The ECM 12z is fairly similar to the GFS but is potentially stormy on Tuesday 14th December.

    ECM finishes up wiht another potential storm on it's way. At the same time the Siberian High over Russia is beginning to march westwards...




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,106 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    Atm it looks like once we get the more unsettled Atlantic driven pattern out of the way ,high pressure will become more dominate in the run up to Xmas.

    If there is for example any chance of a decent cold spell before this month is out ,it will probably have to get mild first of all as can often be the case with winds coming up from a mild direction. Then hoping for high pressure to align into decent position thereafter.....

    So in other words a mild and mostly dry run up to Xmas with a chance of something much colder during the last week of the month would be my best guess atm.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,902 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Think once Tuesdays storm is out of the way we can focus on Christmas as there appears very little weather-wise on the horizon after that bar mild bland and sometimes breezy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 984 ✭✭✭ esposito


    That's fine Gonzo. I'll be expecting a February 1991 then 😉

    Latest EC 46 just out has HP over us for Christmas so possibility of frosty weather.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,549 ✭✭✭ pad199207




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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,311 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    As long as it does not become a Bartlett! The EC46 looks blocked out to week 3. If a big block does persist beyond Christmas it may have a positive effect on the pv eventually. By positive I mean weakening it.



This discussion has been closed.
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