FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599885#Comment_118599885

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599503#Comment_118599503

The Ecmwf model picked up on storm Barra aswell more than 9 days out. The trend is definitely for something windy and stormy but how stormy is the question. Come Saturday and Sunday if we are still looking at this then it will be really interesting.

Gonzo

Generally now the models are looking very unsettled for much of this month. Next week is likely to be the most unsettled week and the storm risk remains to be seen. GFS etc not really going for a storm.

We may start to trend dryer from mid February with high pressure coming back. The ECMWF long range models are currently supporting high pressure domination from March all the way to May and then the high pressure weakens into June and we descend into low pressure for July and August. Pinch of salt with all that.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118601310#Comment_118601310

March to August sounds like so many years of late....

Billcarson

We can practically tell what August will be like these days. Like clockwork. These days it seems to be the worst of the 3 summer months. Often Cooler and wetter then the other 2. Whatever goes before it or after it ,it almost has a climate of its own. Last yr perfect example. Heatwave 2nd half of July , poor August as usual, back to summer during September.

screamer

August is the wettest month of summer always, that’s nothing new.

pauldry

Ah yer awful quiet. This is only 336 hours away. What could go wrong?

Cork2021

Can anyone remember how far in advance Storm Emma was showing up on FI in 2018 as a matter of interest…

Meteorite58

The Jet getting fired up next week, still showing some potentially windy spells around midweek and the following weekend , system around next Weds seems to be keeping well off the NW coast at this stage so keeping the strongest winds to coastal counties with the strongest in the W, NW, N at this stage.

Looking very wet at times with some systems being drawn up from the SW, ECM showing getting up around 14 or 15C next Weds and possibly a few less cold frontal passages out towards the weekend.

konman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118612819#Comment_118612819

IIRC the easterly was showing on the models in F.I from about the 15th February. Not sure about storm Emma, but would presume it was modelled from 5-6 days out in some form or another.

Gonzo

I remember the Beast From the East being modeled 14 days or possibly more before day 1. It wasn't a straight forward calm rollercoaster like November/December 2010 as there were some wobbles. As for Storm Emma I think that only began to make it's appearance just before the Beast started.

Another thing I remember was the day before the cold air really hit us, watching live cams from eastern England as the snow began to fall there, knowing that we would have it the following morning. Watching the ECM snow depth charts prior to Storm Emma was very exciting too and those charts certainly delivered.

At the start of this winter I was really feeling hopeful we would get at least a few fun days of snow model watching leading up to a half decent event this winter but sadly it was not to be. However we should strike white gold at some stage over the next few years, not sure it will be next winter. We are long overdue a cold January and now we have 4 very mild Februarys in a row too.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118612960#Comment_118612960

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118613396#Comment_118613396

Thanks lads,

just going by memory it really started to ramp up from the Friday before hand, I’ll never forget the rush in the supermarket I worked in! Just as bad as the first few days of lockdown!! Mental!

pauldry

I remember Emma unfondly. The country was getting buried and in Sligo there was a shower in the morning and snizzle all day. So much so that the ground was dry by evening. Like Ophelia felt wrong to have the day off on a cold windy day.

Meteorite58

ECMWF has a cold wintry shower look from around later Wendsday into Thursday to the weekend and probably getting a few windy spells also from quick moving systems, will be interesting to see if any fronts move into the cold air to give a dump of wet snow, more weather next week then the whole of the winter so far !!

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118618776#Comment_118618776

It might sound as a bit of straw grasping, but in deepest February with a raging jet stream and a deep cold pool over Canada and the northern USA it has been known for the jet stream to push that cold air east across the Atlantic to Ireland and give us snow in times gone before. Probably the most recent example would be in the wake of Storm Darwin (that I can think of off the top of my head) whereby such is the speed of the westerly wind that the Atlantic warmer waters get less time to 'moderate' the air above.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118613787#Comment_118613787

Emma was quite something in Arklow alright

And later that Evening,the outside of Maisie Kelly's pub at the top of the Town,worthy of a Ski resort !

Danno

Be some squall line in this on Friday morning next if it happens...

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604745#Comment_118604745

Rebelbrowser

Please ignore above post, no idea how that just got posted.

Rebelbrowser

Separately, some small signs of life tonight. Both UKMO and ECM showing some snow potential at t144. Can't seem to post charts though, having an IT nightmare tonight....

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118622788#Comment_118622788

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/1492542744279011328?s=21

Matt Hugo is actually worse than January snowstorm for jinxing things unfortunately

Meteorite58

Very turbulent charts for the week coming especially towards Friday. Has to be stressed that the models are putting out various outcomes regarding wind strength , wintry precipitation, snowfall amounts and various locations getting snowfall but the main trend is for potentially very strong winds or stormy conditions and with there being a big temperature gradient , and looking like we could be under the cold airmass , it could lead to us having a frontal snow type event around Friday.

Currently ECM showing the strongest winds later in the week, GFS was showing a knockout storm but less strong now. UKMO showing a storm. GEM showing a storm, ICON showing a storm. Different strengths and tracks as is to be expected this far out but one to watch.

Below can see how the models are predicating snow, even though it might be very short lived combined with the storm potential cold produce a severe event.

Meteorite58

The ECM showing a pressure drop of about 27hPa in 9hrs , 32hPa in 12hrs. UKMO showing it getting down deeper to 966hPa.

Moving very quickly along with a left exit from the Jet. I have no doubt the forecasters will be sitting up watching developments very closely. Could get other very deep lows springing up very quickly.

Artane2002

The UKMO shows possible blizzard/blizzard-like conditions for Friday for parts of the country. I miss out since I'm in Dublin - normally I'd be very annoyed about that but this winter has been so bad that I'm happy somewhere in the country might get something! Obviously knowing this winter, it's going to get massively downgraded and the low will be further north and weaker, leaving us all in the mild air and without interesting winds.

Rebelbrowser

Icon worth a post too

Having regard to previous posts from me, if there is even a 10% shot of this coming off we should start a thread by Tuesday so we can milk the "event" for everything we can - given it looks like being our only snow thread of the 2021/22 winter....

Kermit.de.frog

This looks increasingly interesting. ECM not really on board yet and the other models are quite variable with the track but worthwhile following. Ulster and Connaught overall appear most at risk for now from snowfall.

sicknotexi

Pub run has snow further south.

jirafa

Storms update 16/02/22.

Met Office - Weather

Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has an update on Storms Dudley and Eunice, expected to hit the UK in quick succession during the next 48 hours.

The forecast and any weather warnings within this video are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTiJPruT640

highdef

Lunchtime BBC weather forecast was very ominous. Forecaster said that Eunice is likely to be the most powerful storm for several decades with gusts possibly reaching 160 km/h in parts of the western UK with snow falling so fast in parts of Ireland and Scotland that snow ploughs will be unable to clear the roads quickly enough, probably resulting in many people being trapped in their cars, with 10 - 30cm of snow to be expected (especially upland) in a fairly short period of time. Thousands of trees are expected to be downed and power supplies will be severely impacted. Major and widespread structural damage is expected!

Meteorite58

I think the WRF is perhaps a good balance of all the models, Some away further S and UKMO much stronger, small bit of a move further N in the track I think in general.

UK looks to get a right doing.

The E and SE could get some very strong winds yet.

Think looking at Orange along SE, S, SE and maybe E at this stage, probably wouldn't take much more to raise the level for Kerry, may end up Orange Wind warning for much of the country for a time.

Don't forget this storm is still deepening on approach and on transit of the country so unleashing its full force. It looks like the NW'ly winds will be the strongest across the country.

EDIT: SORRY WRONG THREAD, Highdef lead me astray 😄