FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118532120#Comment_118532120

Tis why we need winter proper to arrive between now and the end of March!!

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118532120#Comment_118532120

That weather chart looks absolutely horrific. Cool, wet and windy. No chance of enjoying the outdoors as has been the case for the past few weeks, thankfully! I will certainly miss the fairly calm, dry and settled weather we've been having recently. The best winter for being outdoors for many a year and absolute pleasure that the ground is so dry over extended periods of time, an absolute rarity in typical years. This winter is proving to be one of the best in a long time.

Gonzo

I have to agree, as boring as this winter is and as dissapointing that it is that we haven't seen a sniff of cold, the dry weather is great for being outdoors and going for walks which makes a big change on most winters. There is nothing worse than an Atlantic dominated winter of deluges or indeed a summer filled with the same. If only we could time the Atlantic for autumn and perhaps early to mid Spring.

pauldry

Yeah every Winter seems to have a theme

Wet mild and windy dominate

Some are frosty not recently

Some are stormy

But this Winter has been absolutely dead. And yet we had 2 storms in Sligo on the only 2 days that weren't no weather. .. almost

Dazler97

The winter chat seems to have gone

Gonzo

The winter chat is still here, hasn't gone anywhere.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058201345/winter-2021-2022-general-discussion

Gonzo

The next 2 weeks is starting to look a bit easier to predict. It looks like the high pressure is on the way out and will finally be on the move back towards Spain/Portugal, Italy etc as a much more zonal and Atlantic driven unsettled flow is expected to take hold during February. This is likely to introduce milder and cooler sectors throughout but nothing properly cold any time soon.

The GFS ensembles show a typical zonal wave with warmer and cooler sectors placed throughout and a more unsettled picture overall.

Temperatures over the next 2 weeks generally in the 5 to 12C range with maybe the odd night getting close to freezing during the cooler sectors but overall frost should be very limited in the first half of February.

Once we get past the first week of February I have a feeling we may start to get blocking again perhaps at some stage during the second half of February as the PV is set to weaken over the next few weeks, so maybe then if we're lucky we may get an opportunity past the middle of the month to tap into something suitably colder and more wintry. Still absolutely no sign of an SSW any time soon. We may have to wait for the PV to just weaken naturally as we move into the Spring.

Meteorite58

ECMWF showing a colder outlook tonight and an increase in LP activity giving more possibilities of precipitation, GFS not as cold but skirting the colder airmass. HP never far away which increases the uncertainty of more wintry weather. Will see if we get a few runs showing any sort of a change is afoot.

pauldry

Oh mobile charts please.

I don't care if there's no snow. I love looking at weather so heavy rain hail wind anything.

Imagine turning on the TV and it being grey. That's what the past 6 weeks has been like.

Ps I'll probably moan when the rain comes but itl mean playing with my rain gauge again. It's stuck on 87mm for the period Dec 15th to today so it hasn't been completely dry but the rain has either come in short heavy showers or drizzle like tonight.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118536878#Comment_118536878

Thank you for some reason it was gone for a few hours must have been an update or something

Gonzo

ECM 12z trying to turn things colder into the 1st week of February. Nothing too cold but definitely a bit more promising than over a month of high pressure or warm south-westerly charts.

The High finally seems to be on the move to the mid Atlantic on this particular run.

GFS 12z does something similar but afterwards the high retreats back to Spain and we bring in a fairly flat zonal flow after this.

Meteorite58

Yes 3 runs in a row showing a change to wintry weather from about next weekend , could be a very cold opener to the Six Nations at the Aviva , ECM and GFS showing blustery wintry weather with snow potential and very cold nights at the moment sourced from the NW /N.

pauldry

This mundane weather is coming to an end. February is looking like a windy washout at least in the North and West. Even the end of January could become unsettled. The Northwesterlies have got sick of this just like ...... me.

torres9kop

Ah Lads. Its like waiting on Utd to win the league again. It aint going to happen

pauldry

Hopefully it doesn't (Utd winning the league) but confidence has grown substantially in the past few runs.

Also yr.no now has nearly 50mm of rain in the next 7 days for Sligo. Last week it had 5mm for the 7 days just gone.

Meteorite58

Will be interesting to see if the weather has any effect on the Russian Naval drills of the SW coast from around next Thurs for about 5 days ( if it goes ahead or just propaganda or diversion tactics ). The sea state is set to get good and lumpy with some strong NW'lys showing up at this stage. They wont be welcome in Bantry Bay if it gets too rough that is for sure! Not great weather for Irish fishing trawlers heading out to protest. Might make an interesting thread to keep an eye on it , weather wise of course.

Will open a thread on it, could get heated and the weather might play a part in events.

Meteorite58

The last 5 runs from ECM showing cold wintry weather at the end of next week through the weekend. Blustery / windy also possible. Could get freezing conditions in sheltered places away from the coasts, very cold day time temperatures with windchill according to the charts if they come to pass. Snow possible.

GFS on the cold also and outlook looking more seasonal.

sicknotexi

Pub run is really on the rip tonight.

Gonzo

I'm sure the GFS 00z will have sobered up by that stage.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118548562#Comment_118548562

Not as mental as the 106cm predicted by the ECM last month...

Gonzo

Just after noticing on Wetterzentale that they have added the ECMWF ensemble graphs which will be very useful.

Perhaps there is a slight problem with no precipitation showing up on above chart.

Meteorite58

The colder plunge at the end of next week not as clear-cut the last couple of runs, wintry maybe for a day or two then slight rise in temps for a day or so and possibly getting wintry again in the early days of the following week, GFS something similar and a colder outlook but already the ECM and GFS have eased off the duration of cold so low confidence overall but do think we could get colder weather with mountain snow initially at the end of next week . Will see.

Gonzo

The ECM and CFS long range models are now fully supporting high pressure to dominate much of the second half of February, all of March with south-westerly winds throughout and very little rainfall. If this verifies we could be looking at an early Spring and an exceptionally dry first quarter of 2022.

CFS long range model keeps the high anchored over us throughout March and April, however in May it starts to move back southwards. We finish up with a strong scandi high linking up with the azores for June which would deliver a very warm or hot month for us. Very unlikely this will all verify but so far the long term models have been accurate in keeping the high pressure rooted over us throughout January. If the high pressure dominates for much of February and March then perhaps it could just keep on going into the early part of the summer.

At this stage i'm paying more attention to what sort of Spring and Summer we could get this year as I've washed my hands of this winter.

piplip87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554846#Comment_118554846

Thanks for the update. I would love some snow and proper cold. Although today has reminded me that boring and dry beats wet and windy. The dogs have been so used to long walks in the Forrest although today was a quick walk around the cleanest route.

mcburns07

It's too early to write off winter yet. 4 weeks to play for and things can and do change quickly.

Billcarson

The only bit of hope i have left with this winter is sometimes around the end of Feb delivers something. We have had virtually nothing of note at all this winter cold wise so I'm hoping for a little sting in the tail .

pauldry

The sting in the tail of this Winter will probably be record high temperatures.

Gonzo

The weather over the next 2 weeks is looking increasingly mild to very mild if not slightly warm at times. There may be very brief cool spells lasting about a day or 2 but other than that expect temperatures regularly to reach 10 to 14C over the next 2 weeks with high pressure and warm long fetch south-westerlies for the first half of February. There is a chance we may reach 15 or 16C in a few spots if we can get sunshine combined with the warm air. Overall it looks relatively dry for much of the time apart from some patchy light rain or drizzle at times, however northern and western areas may be prone to more regular rainfall.

The NAO and AO is set to remain fairly positive over the coming 2 weeks with plenty of low pressure to our north while we will remain mostly on the warm side of the jet steam and often relatively dry. There is no signs of northern blocking any time soon with deep areas of low pressure from Canada across to Greenland and Iceland and high pressure never far away from us.

We finish up with high pressure anchored over us with warm southerly winds making it feel very much like spring.

There is potential for this February to be the mildest section of this winter with significantly warmer than average conditions that could rival February 2019 where it was warm enough to wear shorts and tshirts, if this sort of a setup was to verify as we head towards the 3rd week of February temperatures of 16 or 17C could be possible under the right conditions.

Very little rain looks likely across the south and east of the country with perhaps the north and north-west seeing more average amounts of rainfall.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118561663#Comment_118561663

I welcome the low rainfall predicted but those mid teen temperatures, no thanks! Can we have them in March instead please. Looks like another very mild February with no snow for most beckons. Sad sad times. I was going to say roll on next winter but let's be honest it's probably going to be either a wet, stormy one or something similar to this one, - mild and dry. I have no faith in this country getting a significant cold spell in the next few years based on recent winters going all the way back to 2011 (with 2017/18 being the exception).

pauldry

The weather always surprises. Nature is never consistently predictable.