FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

pauldry

Even if Eunice misses us with her punch there are a lot of kinks in the jet in the coming weeks so windy or stormy weather will be often nearby. Not much calm weather in forecast.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118644235#Comment_118644235

However, the weather may settle down in early March.

piplip87

Just had a flock through the GFS precipitation type charts, there seems to be plenty of opportunities for snow lovers over the next couple of weeks.

Elmer Blooker

I’ve never seen that depth of cold make it’s way all across the ocean towards us .... which is why this is in the FI thread cos it won’t happen.

nacho libre

It's incredibly how much it moderates before reaching us, still -8 would be very impressive from that source, but like you I would be doubtful of it happening.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118648602#Comment_118648602

I think we did have -8 uppers from the north-west sometime January 2018 for one night which did bring proper snow showers right across the country. I got several cm that night and it washed away fairly quickly with milder air the following day so it is possible but these occurances of real cold from the North west are fairly rare. Hopefully this will happen with a sea track from Greenland rather than eastern Canada.

nacho libre

Yes, less chance of it being modified as much with a sea track from Greenland, but it looks like it will have to travel further than that if that chart were to be correct. I remember a night similar to that from a westerly source. The showers were fairly heavy but did not last long.

squarecircles

strong storm on both runs of latest GFS Next sunday.

ECM has a strong storm system in the vincity of Ireland also next sunday.

squarecircles

Snow potential mid next week.

Artane2002

At last we're finally starting to get some weather. It makes for a nice change from this boring pattern that has embedded since basically June. Also, the January 2018 northwesterly didn't quite reach -8C, I'm splitting hairs here but it bottomed out at -6C or -7C. The main reason why showers were able to make it all the way to the east was that the air mass was deeply unstable and it was a very windy night, with Storm Fionn in the vicinity.

Gonzo

The GFS operational which is linked above is actually one of the milder outcomes for now and shows snow across the country. There are several GFS members going much colder than that down to -15C. Looks potentially quiet stormy too. We certainly dodged a bullet today with Eunice but how will we fare next Sunday? Even after that it looks to remain unsettled. The signs of it becoming very settled and mild for March is starting to look flimsy at this stage.

Several shots of cold zonality over the next 10 days.

GFS backing away from a split in the PV but this could still very well happen over the next 2 weeks, all in all we finally have some actual weather going on for the next few weeks with perhaps some wintry potential.

CFS long range now toying with the idea of a very cold end to March and unseasonably wintry April. Maybe it's factoring in the possible idea of a split in the PV with attacks from the north and east becoming more regular from mid March.

Danno

Out of interest, there are three large circular voids of snow in Nunavut, Canada - one of them near Baker Lake. These anomalies have been there for quite a while now and they are still there in FI too! Very unusual.

Tyrone212

@Danno Any idea what has caused that?

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118653320#Comment_118653320

No idea at all! It's most unusual - I'd suspect poor data though rather than a very curious weather pattern!

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118653074#Comment_118653074

The relatively dry, warm and settled pattern which we've had since June was bound to break eventually.

I've no problem with a windy and unsettled February, March and even early April if it means the late spring and summer is half-decent.

In Ireland, particularly in the East, warm weather is usually wasted before late April anyway as the sea is still so cold (though of course on rare occasions you can get temps into the 20s in late March and early April).

Danno

March to start like a lamb?

konman

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&heure=18&jour=19&mois=2&annee=2022&archive=1&carte=1

I`ll just leave this here.

jkforde

Screenshot_20220220-110859.png

really hope this passes us by, going to be keeping tabs on it (of course, it's not an it at all yet, just a bunch of 0s and 1s but you know what I mean! 🤞)

Champagne Sally

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118661740#Comment_118661740

For people without a clue, what does this chart mean? I took it as some fine weather?

pauldry

Storms now lasting into March. We will have the whole alphabet used at this rate and no trees or beaches or electricity. Pandemic replaced by stormdemic.

Shepards Delight

Any sign of storm Eunice yet I am reading of one called Franklin . Maybe Eunice to arrive first me thinks

Shepards Delight

Meteorite58

GFS showing a similar weather pattern to the ECM but looking that bit more unsettled and cooler in general also out to +240 hrs.

Cork2021

Just saw the Irish independent front page!! Supposed to be a broadsheet…

https://twitter.com/newsbrandsirl/status/1495694912788041731?s=21

Elmer Blooker

Probably will happen as it usually does when winter comes to an end.

I wouldn’t be one bit surprised!

nacho libre

So it looks like Gonzo might get his wish in early March for settled weather. We waited all winter for charts like the latest ECM to appear, then of course they show up when winter technically ends

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118677206#Comment_118677206

Hopefully! We've had 3 weeks of relentless wind and rain, by now most of us should be welcoming some drier and milder Spring like weather. The ground needs to dry out so that we can get back to cutting the lawn for 2022. This winter was as bleak as it gets for proper cold and snow lovers. Hopefully we will have better luck with winter 2022/2023.

ECM doesn't look as interested in a proper high but it should still turn much drier and quieter.

The ECM 42 day extended is generally going for a more settled second half to March with the first half being the most unsettled. Overall March looks mild but not as excessively mild as February.

The Spring FI thread will be here soon as FI is now already into Spring and winter has run out of road.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118677206#Comment_118677206

Did we not have plenty of those sorts of charts here and there throughout the winter, especially January which was high pressure dominated.........and will be one to remember as the best winter month for many a year!

I certainly welcome a return to high pressure and look forward to seeing what way high pressures distribute themselves this summer, following the publication of the Maynooth University report about the jet stream moving north in the vicinity of our neck of the woods. I have noticed in recent years that in the summer times, it has often been further north than normal and now that it's been officially recognised, it will be something that more people will keep an eye on. I don't mind if it sits over us for all of winter so long as it fecks off to the north for regular and extended periods in the summer months (and late Spring/early Autumn too, if I could be so greedy!).

typhoony

It's that time of year when the models start toying with the idea of an easterly, we'll need the jetstream to drop and not sure there's any really cold air to tap into, I'd say 60% chance of it happening in the next 2 weeks

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118677480#Comment_118677480

It would need to happen pronto as solar radiation is coming very much into play and even now, my snow urges are being replaced to the warmth of summer urges!

Having said that I'm moving from about 40km from the east coast to pretty much the centre of the country, longitude wise so those late Spring/early Summer settled spells that are lovely bar a chilly east wind should no longer be much of a thing.......thankfully!