FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Spring 2022.

If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

Thanks

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After yet another exceptionally mild winter it is time to move on and look forward to the Spring. How is this Spring shaping up? At the moment it is difficult to tell how settled or unsettled March will be. I think it will be a mostly zonal and mild month, similar to the previous winter months. However the PV should weaken and this may allow blocking to form at some point leading to some cool days at times during March and April.

March will start off drier than the very wet February and this will be needed to dry out the waterlogged fields. It won't be completely dry however, there will be some rain or showers at times especially in the west and north.

The GFS wants to bring us high pressure as we head towards mid month with possibly some very mild air feeding up from the south.

We finish up with a very mild south-westerly dragging very mild air over us and keeping the Atlantic fronts just off to our north-west.

sparrowcar

BBQ's blazing, lawnmowers mowing, kids laughing out on the road on the longer evenings, spring cleaning, t-shirts and shorts... absolutely love a bit of spring.

Disappointing winter so I for one will embrace the warmer days... however, still a chance of snow as we well know.

highdef

Latest GFS is showing two storms in quick succession, the first on Tuesday 8th:

With another the following morning:

Gonzo

The more settled charts for next week are now almost gone, looks increasingly like another 2 unsettled weeks ahead of us. The AO trending negative has also backtracked keeping it either close to normal or above average with the PV set to remain quite strong but not as intense as currently. We may not see a proper weakening of the PV till mid month or the end of the month.

Kermit.de.frog

We are on the cusp of a potentially very cold easterly regime towards the weekend. Not there yet but keep an eye as things are evolving! As always these scenarios are really delicate evolutions but something to keep an eye on 🙂

Gonzo

This was looking like a complete outlier on the 6z but the GFS 12z is at it again, another easterly and a more potent one too which would finally deliver some snow to Leinster if it verified.

This is probably still a wild outlier but will see what the other models bring this evening.

Kermit.de.frog

Early, early days. All could be gone next run. Something to follow anyhow see if it evolves.

Kermit.de.frog

Not bad. It's the trend that matters. 👌

Gonzo

GFS 18z going for it yet again. I haven't been able to access Wetterzentrale all evening their website seems to be down for me.

We finish up very close to a freezer plunge from the north-east but warm air moves up from the south just before it gets to us.

The above if it verified it would be a very raw 4 or 5 days with wintry showers and snow on high ground, particularly over Leinster and Ulster. This is a coldish easterly but we're not there for snow to low levels right down the coast, could be a bit marginal. I would like to see cold upgrades to the upper air temperatures to get a bit more excited. This is 2nd to 3rd week of March afterall, so uppers would need to be -8C and colder for several days in a row if we're to see any sort of decent low level snow potential.

Even with uppers of -8C etc any lying snow from night time would melt fairly rapidly with the strong mid March sunlight a bit like in 2013. If only this was January/February! Let's see what tomorrow brings. But at this stage I would take it because this would probably have us in more wintry potential than we had throughout the entire winter.

Kermit.de.frog

Daytime melting wouldn't bother me tbh. Just like to see some decent snowfall before it's a wrap for this season.

Gonzo

beginning to lose that trend now. We had the trend several days ago and lost it and got it back. Let's see what the evening models brings.

Kermit.de.frog

It's back and forth at the moment. I haven't given up on it yet.

Kermit.de.frog

Update: I would still say we should keep an eye on a potential easterly toward the end of next week. It's still back and forth with the models at the moment dealing with how high pressure building over Scandinavia (with it's reach back to the Urals) will orientate itself and how the Atlantic systems interact in the confrontation. There is some evidence that they could undercut that high pressure and drag in an easterly flow here though this is not reflected yet in most models. Overall content enough with what I see at the moment. It's still on, but fragile.

Gonzo

The idea of that easterly is more or less dead now, instead it's going to Greece with a very wintry week to come and more snow for Athens. We turn mild and very unsettled once again with the Atlantic back in action.

mild southerlies or south-westerlies for much of the time from mid week onwards with a fair deal of rain.

Next weekend looks potentially stormy on the GEM

The next 10 days trending increasingly wet with perhaps over 100mm of rain for some western and southwestern areas.

Kermit.de.frog

Yeah I give up on this one 🙁

Dazler97

This is dead, is there no people posting?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769323#Comment_118769323

It's the Spring break. Winter is over, it's too late for decent snow model watching and it's too early for proper warmth. There is very little happening in FI, all the cold is over Greece and Turkey and just average rainy conditions for here.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769341#Comment_118769341

Aww that sounds horrible, I was hoping either snow or fog for my birthday it's 19th, your dead right it is too late for proper snow and early for decent heat

Meteorite58

Liking the low rainfall showing up in the charts out to +240hrs. ECM showing a cold plunge towards the end of the run but not so from the GFS.

Could be a few nice mild days next week, possibly cooler towards the weekend with frosty nights in places.

Sun climbing and can feel the house warming through the glass, will need it with the price of oil 😄!

Gonzo

GFS is now showing the beginnings of a cold plunge at the end of it's run. Unlikely to verify and even if it did, it is 6 weeks too late.

This would be an annoyance more than anything with cold rain for most and high heating bills.

Meteorite58

Dominant HP outlook with very low rainfall showing up over the next 10 days, cooler nights from next weekend.

Meteorite58

Cold and possibly wintry plunge on the ECM 12C charts this evening, GFS less cold but does get there eventually although not as pronounced as the ECM .

Birdnuts

Don't like the look of those charts - though it was inevitable that the Ducks Ar%e of a PV would weaken at some stage. Hopefully its a short lived thing like nearly all "Northerlies" are nowadays

Meteorite58

ECM looking much colder than the GFS from about next Tues . Showing wintry showers, possibly of hail also with a trace of snow possible on hills and mountain's. Widespread sharp frosts. Low rainfall totals in general and no strong winds of note although might be fresh around midweek making it feel cold.

Interesting to see if it holds the cold /very cold theme or will it moderate a bit.

Meteorite58

HP dominated weather out to +240hr, low amounts of rainfall showing up and light winds. Temperatures mid teens at times away from windward coasts, maybe a chance of getting up to the high teens by around next weekend in a few favorable locations depending on the position of the HP ??

Sammy2012

What are the charts showing currently for the weekend of the 7th?

Dazler97

As long as darkness into light walk is dry and not raining fingers crossed 🤞

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118976420#Comment_118976420

Still a long way off and no way certain but if we take these charts from ECM as a starting point and see if they trend over the next few days. Showing HP build and giving temps in the high teens and possibly up to or slightly over 20C. GFS in the mid teen to high teens range at present, both showing some frontal rain at some stage either the end of next week or into the start of the following week but a lot of dry weather also, both too far away to know for sure.

ECM builds the HP more than the GFS and holds on it out to at least +240hrs. Will see.

Sammy2012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118999186#Comment_118999186

I'll take that! 🤞

My phone weather forecast is giving rain for the 7th and 8th. We're in Donegal and have a Communion on. Having the bouncy castle bizz so hopefully forecast perks up 🤔

Gonzo

Finally we are starting to see signs in FI that we may have a chance of tapping into the first real heat of the season with temperatures possibly getting to 24 or 25C around the middle of this month. This is a long way off of course so probably won't verify but will see how this goes.

However this is a long way out and is looking a bit flimsy with a big area of low pressure to our south-west, which when the time comes could easily sit itself centred over Ireland.

In this setup Ireland is just about on the edge of the warm and settled conditions, wouldn't take much of an adjustment to have low pressure in control over our weather instead. Fingers crossed this mornings GFS verifies and we get a decent warm and dry spell at some stage this month.

Edit: Turns out this GFS operational run is a bit of an outlier, most other options are either unsettled or dry with more typical temperatures for the time of year.