Winter 2021/2022 - General Discussion

Supercell

Seeing as last years thread started on August first last year maybe it's time..

Out on my run yesterday I couldnt help notice that there was a lot of leaves on the road for the first time in months and the air was decidedly autumnal in temperature. It made me start wondering what winter is going to be like.

Last year whilst not the stuff of legend did give a few decent wintery blasts (well, decent for a location about a mile from the coast in south Dublin).

I'm getting my long term forecast in now, mild, wet and blowy with frequent named storms and no snow recorded here on the ground and maybe 1-3 days with it falling December to Febuary 2022.

.

leahyl

Love to see this thread opening! There's no Autumn thread though is there?! 😯

sryanbruen

Last winter was close to what I would like our average winter to be, maybe still slightly below par though because it was just a bit too Atlantic driven for my liking and not the exciting kind (there was hardly any storms) with the mild/wet period in mid-Dec and a very wet January with slow moving fronts up against blocking to the north but not enough cold air fed from the east. The February easterly was also a big disaster. The novelty of snow on New Year's Eve was cool even if it was barely a dusting, the severe frost on 9 January was interesting especially with no snow even though it was the coldest morning since December 2010 for most and the localised snowfall I had on 24 January that was mainly a northeast coastal Dublin affair. 6 December was a great day too with persistent freezing fog nearly all day.

Not counting our surface conditions, it was such an unusual season though with vast amounts of blocking in the Arctic Circle that wouldn't recede until the intensification of the stratospheric polar vortex through mid-February. The last time there was that amount of high latitude blocking for such a prolonged period of time was probably either winter 2009-10 or March 2013.

As for 2021-22, first thing I look out for is the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures come late November and see how they are doing. Right now, the North Atlantic is just in a very warm state in general which doesn't give much indication besides the onset of an active hurricane season perhaps in a month's time.

Gonzo

Winter 2020/2021 was such a tease, we came fairly close to have a few noteworthy snow events but just couldn't pull it off and we ended up with the usual trace amounts of snow/dustings however when it was cold it felt like proper winter. The coldest day of last winter was not from a cold plunge, northerly or easterly but was from inversion on Sunday December 6th with dense freezing fog and a daytime high of -1C locally at Dunsany.

What will this winter bring? I've honestly no idea at this stage far too early to tell but I'm going to go with my gut feeling and that is a mostly mild winter that may contain 1 or 2 very cold weeks and 1 notable snow event. My thoughts on this will probably change alot in the coming months as we get a clearer signal of what this winter could bring.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058201345/winter-2021-2022

I'd imagine any leaves were to do with heat stress as opposed to cool weather. In the East at least we've had slightly above to very above normal temperatures since the end of May.

Leaves on the ground in Ireland in July aren't a sign of winter or autumn coming.

Gaoth Laidir

Is it too early to start a Spring 2022 thread while we're at it? I reckon this winter will be cooler than this summer.

Billcarson

As someone who likes cold spells in winter last winter was better then the last 2 and better then many since 2010/11 but flattered to decieve especially the cold spell of February. The synoptics around Xmas looked good on paper but the air wasn't cold enough.

Perhaps last winter was some kind of attempt at a low solar minimum like winter like what we had a decade before. We are at the point in the current solar cycle of coming out of the minimum (as we were last winter) which can give cold winters so I'm hopeful this winter might be a step up from last winter.

Oneiric 3

Hoping for a repeat of the winter 2013 - 2014, only better, which would be more akin to winter 89-90.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117683037#Comment_117683037

Christ no, that winter 13/14 was just rotten storm after storm,hardly any frost etc

Beechwoodspark

Hopefully we get at least 6 weeks of sustained cold with the attendant frost and snow events. December and January most promising months for this.

Ideally we have a re run of the winter of 1963 - would be interesting to say the least !

Niall145

I was lucky enough to be in that part of North Dublin that got the proper lying snow in late January (was surreal seeing the beaches covered in snow), also spent a beautiful snowy day in Wicklow at the start of that month, proper fairytale stuff.

Still, it was a winter full of teases that didnt really deliver, hoping for something a bit more exciting this winter.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117684104#Comment_117684104

On the plus side, countless days with big thunder! We have had very tame winters since then in fairness.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117684666#Comment_117684666

Another thing about that winter was despite the lack of cold,frost and snow etc it wasn't a particularly mild winter either. Max temps often in the 7c - 9c range,therefore the reason for example why the Highlands of Scotland got plenty of snow that winter.

Danno

Last winter was a right 'ol tease, however the snow and low temperatures around January 6th to 10th saved what was an otherwise close but no cigar akin to 2012/13 (if my memory serves me correctly).

Barring a massive swing to El Nino this winter, we should see alot of western/northwestern blocking I think and that should bode well for arctic and Scandinavian incursions. The jet has been in two states really for a decent time now:

• weakened
• southerly amplified

Both good if you like Ireland to experience more continental style weather patterns.

screamer

Bit depressing to be thinking of winter already but anyways. I’ll just state for the record that before the autumn and the multitude of posters seeing more berries in trees than ever before, the hawthorn tree in my garden was complete white with blossoms this summer, as in you couldn’t see anything but white. So, I’ll expect a bumper crop of haw berries which has no way to predict with how harsh the winter will be.

Dunno what the winter will be like just yet, I’ll wait till end of August and I’ll have a better idea.

Billcarson

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1422308074350686210

OldRio

Ah Now........... Winter?..........

Although, I must check our heating oil.

Lucreto

I leave for a few months and the whole website changes!

I am more confident of a cold Winter this year but not my much. Last Winter was colder than the previous two. I feel it was a set up Winter for this year, similar to end of 2009 to what we got in 2010. We got a bit of a heatwave in 2010 and in 2018. The small out we just had has me more positive for this Winter.

spoonerhead

This thread just gets earlier every year…

Tyrone212

I'm hoping for an interesting winter whether it be storms or snow, hopefully a good mixture of both. There's is nothing more boring in winter than mild,dry, and cloudy weather that lasts over a week at a time(IMO).

I think we are overdue a very wet and stormy spell in Winter. My worthless prediction for late Autumn/Early Winter is severe flooding in the Shannon basin in November. A couple of hefty storms that month. Cold more settled with snow at times in the first the half of December. Later half of December intense storms with one exceptional severe storm around Christmas before settling down to something more seasonal from the North to see out last 4 days of the year with frosts and snow for some.

Loughc

I missed this thread opening this year. All aboard the rollercoaster that is winter hope.

nacho libre

Ah that time of years again when cold fans emerge from the shadows...

We got one decent snowfall last year and some nice frosty mornings, but given what could have been last winter was a real tease. I would not say no to a major storm this winter, it has been a while since we had one. A wind storm that was accompanied by a raging blizzard, which lasted 18 - 24 hours would be just the ticket:)

Loughc

I miss the crisp frosty mornings. Definitely don’t see too many of them anymore.

Loughc

Any early indicators for this Winter?

billyhead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117918254#Comment_117918254

Wet and mild.

Loughc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117918270#Comment_117918270

Good shout to be fair.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117918254#Comment_117918254

Easterly QBO - increases the chances of a weak/meridional jet stream and sudden stratospheric warming events. The last time the QBO was easterly was way back in 2017-18. There was a second failure of the easterly QBO in 2020 only 4 years after the only other failure in the record in 2016.

Weak La Niña - La Niña favours -NAO more in the earlier part of the winter so the earlier part is likely to be colder than the second half.

Negative to neutral IOD - a strongly positive IOD was believed to have helped the rapid intensification of the stratospheric polar vortex in 2019-20 with little tropical wave activity to disturb it. So a negative to neutral IOD this time around should mean few impacts from it.

Warm North Atlantic - less conducive to explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and if a tripole forms can be more conducive to -NAO.

Weak jet stream during 2021 so far - the jet stream has been very meridional and weak during a lot of 2021 so far. This has been theorised to being down to low solar forcing.

Siberia has overall been colder this year so far as compared to 2020 when it was approaching record warmth so polar continental airmasses that advected eastward from here were unusually mild. It has been a similar story in the Arctic where it has been a cloudy summer so melting hasn't been as great as many recent years.

ongarite

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117918270#Comment_117918270

Good, with record breaking energy prices across Europe, it will suit the majority in keeping the hit to their bank balance as low as possible.

Billcarson

This well above average September could well be making the bed for the coming winter. We will have to lie in it. Not what I want. But the one positive is it would help with the heating bills.

Atm I reckon a mild and dry winter is most likely.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117923568#Comment_117923568

We've had a lot of warmer and drier than average months this year (6 out of 9 warmer and 7 out of 9 drier for Roches Point), I'd be surprised if that run continues for the next 6 months.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117923927#Comment_117923927

Well if it won't be mild and dry , mild and wet. One or the other. Either way mild imo.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if this winter will be one of the mildest on record.

Oneiric 3

Mild and stormy is my preferred choice. Our winters in recent years have been very benign for Irish winters.

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117924628#Comment_117924628

Perfectly acceptable if there’s definitely not going to be proper cold and snow.

Danno

Hopefully a high pressure controlled winter bringing alot of cold crisp sunny days where the frost barely thaws in the shadows and a few flurries get through at times. January 2021 was a perfect Winters month!

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117927049#Comment_117927049

Perfect for me. Absolutely hate rain and wind. Absolutely hate rain with no wind. Absolutely hate wind with no rain. In winter, absolutely love dry with no wind. In winter, absolutely love dry weather. In winter, absolutely love no wind......you can see the pattern there!

No wind and dry weather means you can do outdoors stuff in a comfortable manner. Introduce wind into the equation and it becomes less pleasurable. Add rain into the mix and it is just yuck. Have both wind and rain and I have no urge at all for outdoor activities of any kind.

sryanbruen

Anything but mild and dry I’m ok with. Mild and dry in winter is so tedious to get through as somebody who loves extremes of all kinds (average blustery conditions or usual rain we get won’t suffice) or just sunny weather as it is usually gloomy, the Christmas holidays of Dec 2018 and Jan 2019 in particular were a chore.

Otherwise, I’m pretty easy to satisfy. Great sunrise and sunset colours like 2019-20 (which made that winter more bearable) I am fine with for example.

Last winter had some great individual days - 6 December ice day with an inversion, 9 January notable severe frost without snow, 24 January localised snow day, 28 February coastal fog which produced a fogbow.

Oneiric 3

I took a look at the 'QBO' monthly index data for the period Sept-Dec and compared it with the Dec-Jan NAO index, and as far as I can see, there is little correlation to be had:

Orange line = NAO vs Blue line = QBO since for the years 1979 to 2021.

A run of negative QBO values in the last quart of the year does show a very, very slight bias towards a negative NAO but correlation is poor: 0.16 to be exact.

Of the top 5 most negative QBO Sept-Dec periods, only one (following) Dec/Jan period came in with a mean negative NAO value with the average NAO coming in at 0.9c.

Of the top 5 most positive QBO Sept-Dec periods, no following Dec/Jan period came in with a mean negative NAO value. Average NAO value stands at 1.7.

Yet, looking at this data in a different way. The top 5 lowest Dec/Jan NAO values have a mean Sept-Dec QBO value of -6.4 (3 out of 5 were negative), while the top 5 most positive mean NAO values for this Dec-Jan period came in with an average preceding QBO value of 1.01, but with 3 of the 5 of values being also negative.

I'll take a look at the Jan-Feb period later if I am in the mood to do so.

Edit: Data sources I used:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/nao/nao.dat

sryanbruen

Good analysis @Oneiric 3 I noted similar results in 2018-19; though not as detailed as you've given here, when I last did in-depth winter updates and didn't find the QBO a particularly useful tool to giving an indication towards the future winter but Mets continue to mention it and bring it up.

Sure there'll be another new thing discovered to blame this winter on if it ain't a cold blocked one 😏

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117928909#Comment_117928909

Thanks Syran.

I only used one measure though that didn't consider a 'lag effect' (if one exists) between the QBO and the NAO, though I thought, maybe wrongly, that a 4 month lag would be sufficient. That may be a wrong assumption though.

For what it is worth, I posted a video on the climate thread the other day that showed new findings regarding the stratospheric winds patterns etc and cold weather outbreaks which you might be interested in given that you know far about this phenomena that most.

How climate change is making winters colder - YouTube

Just something else to keep an eye on and consider this coming late autumn/winter season.

pauldry

I feel we will get a major snowstorm this Winter. Could happen any month and remember if it does it will probably only last a day or two.

Last Winter there was tons of snow in Westport for a day so something more widespread could happen this year.

In general I'd say this Winter will be mild until the new year with the colder weather at the very end.

M.T. Cranium

There have been three intervals of relatively cold weather so far in 2021, January into early February, April into May, and August. This makes me rather optimistic since the current warmth seems to be extending the general concept of a three to four month periodicity, and the next cold period should therefore be in the early winter. Early winter cold as we saw in 2010 (and 1981-82) is best because it can be more sustained and there\s less of a tendency for daytime temperatures to rise into snow melting ranges.

But not a prediction at this point, just an optimistic note that I hope to find more support for when I do the winter forecast in mid-October.

hatrickpatrick

Usual caveat applies that long range models and teleconnections are notoriously tricky to forecast from this far out.

Everyone has a different variable or element they like to focus on when it comes to long term forecasting guesswork, mine is SSTs. What I'm seeing so far in the long range forecasts for Winter is that the North Atlantic SST profile has a nice warm anomaly, with the large pool of cold which has tended to form between us and Greenland in recent years noticeably absent, and very very constrained once it does appear in the long term forecasts. There is still a small and shallow looking blob of cooler anomalies, but it's far, far more constrained than I've seen it in recent Winters.

Notably, according to Levi Cowan's fantastic analog calculations, the current SST profile globally resembles 2010 most closely. 2017 appears as the fifth closest analog. Both of these Autumns were, as everyone will remember, followed by extreme Winter cold spells in Ireland, characterised by long periods of Northern Blocking over Greenland and the Atlantic, with consequent northerly (Nov-Dec 2010) or easterly (February 2018) spells, respectively.

Here are the anomaly charts for the past month, the same time in 2010 and the same time in 2017:

(Images courtesy of https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ )

The Atlantic profile is remarkably similar in all three charts, with specific reference to very high SST anomalies surrounding Greenland and Iceland in the far North Atlantic, and warm anomalies directly to our West in both the present and 2010 charts, neutral in 2017. The positive AMO signature is extremely evident in all three charts.

In terms of the Pacific, a moderate to strong La Nina is present across all three charts. The present and 2010 charts feature a negative PDO (that diagonal band of cold anomalies stretching from the US West Coast to Hawaii) while the 2017 chart features a warm (positive) PDO, which had weakened by the time of our Beast in Feb 2018, but not substantially.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is another notable feature - the present day and 2010 featured a negative IOD, while 2017 featured a positive IOD. @sryanbruen pointed out last year that there have been recent tentative suggestions of a correlation between positive IODs and a strong polar vortex, and it's interesting to note that the warm pool in the Eastern Indian Ocean flipped to a cool anomaly in January of 2018, right around the time of the SSW event which ultimately resulted in the gigantic anticyclone that originated over Scandinavia in February of 2018 and drifted Westwards towards Greenland, resulting in our Beasterly. I don't know enough about this correlation to suggest a link between those two events, but it's worth keeping an eye on all the same as our current SST profile would suggest favourability in that area as well.

Obviously the question here is whether these SST patterns will hold over the next few months. I had a look at the CFS and CanSIPS SST forecasts, which are attached below:

CFS:

CanSIPS:

Bit of a mixed bag from these forecasts.

The CanSIPs favours the re-development of the cold pool to the South of Greenland (possibly due to melting ice) while the CFS does not, although it does include a cool blob further south off the coast of Canada. Others who are more knowledgeable than myself can comment on whether the cold anomaly proposed by the CanSIPS to appear off Greenland would be enough to kill the positive potential of these charts, or whether it's too constrained to do so. There are extremely warm anomalies directly below this cool area - I don't personally know how that kind of mixed bag would impact the prospects for blocking, so I'll let others chime in.

As far as ENSO, both charts show a strengthening La Nina, with the CFS switching to a strong event while the CanSIPS doesn't make it as strong, but does extend its reach all the way into and beyond the Nino 4 region in the Western Pacific. La Ninas seem to have a sweet spot with regard to our Winters, wherein a weak to moderate event is ideal while a very strong event leads to storminess - again, others will have to adjudicate on what these forecasts would mean in terms of how strong that La Nina is going to get and what kind of impacts it might have for us.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is difficult to reach from these charts, others can chime in with their thoughts. Looks like an unclear signal in either direction - are Indian Ocean SST forecasts generally this neutral-looking, and does that tend to correlate?

I had a look at the pressure charts (MSLP and 500mb heights) for both November and December in both models, but as each model only shows the anomalies for that period rather than the true values, I'm not sure how to interpret those -  Happy to post them here if anyone else wants to have a go!

From where I'm sitting, this looks like is could be another very interesting Winter of model watching, for those of us who are into our cold hunting!

sryanbruen

Nice informative post @hatrickpatrick. I am only getting to post now on the matters with university et al keeping me uber busy at the moment.

The idea of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was that in 2019 we had seen a strong positive phase through the autumn. This minimised atmospheric wave upwell from the troposphere to the stratosphere and in turn, the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) was able to develop strongly with no disruption through the early winter period into the New Year of 2020. There was one minor warming event in late January that resulted in a slight deceleration of the zonal mean zonal winds but it was very minor and was not nearly enough to drive a change in the atmospheric pattern. The persistently strong SPV with little disruption throughout the season from December 2019 to even April 2020 interested stratospheric scientists in finding out what could have caused it. Zonality is normal of course but how stubborn the SPV was in a strong state was very remarkable. It was found that the IOD was the culprit in a study last winter but I had never heard about the IOD in affecting our weather before 2020. So the idea that the IOD will be neutral or slightly negative this autumn means it likely will not impact the winter patterns much as compared to 2019-20.

I will not open a stratosphere watch thread until November at earliest (although of course anyone is free to do so) as in my opinion, it is still too early for the stratosphere to mean much in the grand scheme of things and causing very blocked patterns. However, I see lots of people talking about the prospects of a major SSW (a reversal of the zonal mean zonal winds at 60°N 10 hPa) in late October which would be unprecedented as far as 10 hPa stratospheric records began in 1951 and thus it is extremely unlikely that such would occur and those models that showed such would have been outlier perturbations in an ensemble suite that shows a weak SPV. A major SSW in November meanwhile has happened before in 1958 and 1968 but the rarity of such with it occurring only twice in the 70 year record and last time being 53 years ago would make one hold a bit of skepticism as to the possibility of this happening in 2021. Canadian Warming events where the SPV is displaced towards Eurasia and a warming occurs over Canadian side of the pole in comparison are much more common in November and have occurred in many years but strangely has not happened since November 2000. These warming events are not strictly limited to 10 hPa and can occur in the lower stratosphere at times too such as 1962. Some of the recent modelling forecasts would be close to a technical Canadian Warming by late October, however the very latest ones have had a tendency to decrease the certainty of a dramatic weakening of the zonal mean zonal winds at 60°N 10 hPa and show the SPV recovering through November. This is nothing unusual and in fact lots of recent autumns have been characterised by fair amounts of blocking with October and November 2016 particularly standing out before the SPV recovered through the winter. Autumn 2017 had it, 2018 had it, 2019 had it with a trop-strat disconnection and 2020 had it too to an extent during October. So I'll wait and see developments through November before thinking about what the stratosphere will do or else I'll probably drive myself insane again with uncertainty!

Meanwhile, recent developments in the Pacific have shown the La Niña signature to become more central based which historically has led to overall +NAO winters including the Decembers which I have said before have an increased chance of observing a -NAO during a La Niña. Why this is the case is due to the MJO. An active MJO will increase the risk of blocking but a centrally based Niña is said to 'kill' tropical activity and in turn results in an inactive MJO. This is of similar mechanism to how the IOD impacts the SPV I outlined above with regards to atmospheric waves. It is too complicated for me to simplify so I won't get into anymore details than that.

P.s. I'm holding off on the 2010 comparisons! :-)

pad199207

Pulled from FB.

pauldry

But we have frost most October's and will do at the end of next week too.

Oh you said it was Fakebook

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025198#Comment_118025198

Yes 😁

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025409#Comment_118025409

A little more realistic:

According to that FB charts, we don't see frost here until early December on average, which is ridiculous but... it'd not surprise me if we didn't see any frost until then the way things are going this Autumn/Winter season. Ridiculously warm nights for the time of year.

Mullaghteelin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118026968#Comment_118026968

It's not ridiculously warm for the time of year. 13 by day, 7 by night would be close to the normal October average.

A long fetch south westerly can give us 15-16C at night as late as December.

We're at the time of year when the seasons are changing rapidly, a few short weeks makes a HUGE difference. By mid-November the ground will be colder, the sun much weaker. Colder nights will happen under any clear calm conditions, even if the temps are still mild aloft.

Watch the temps in the Continent plummet between now and then also.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118027077#Comment_118027077

It's ridiculously warm for the time of year:

We may be at that time of year where you would expect the seasons to be changing rapidly... it's just that they don't seem to be changing that much at all.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118027336#Comment_118027336

There's nothing ridiculous about the temperatures. The mean temperature has been about 1 to 2° above average over the past 7 days. That's not unusual when you get a warm source of air for a week or more. To use the term "ridiculously warm" to describe temperatures of only 1° to 2° above average over a 7 day period is what is rather ridiculous and is more akin to the type of language you expect to read in the headlines in The Daily Mail to try make much Ado about something that is not that unusual at all, especially at this time of the year when bigger changes of weather tend to occur.

Had we had northerly winds for the past week and instead of mean temperatures being 1° to 2° above average, they were 1° to 2° BELOW average, would you have described the temperatures as being ridiculously cold?

Supercell

Let it snow...it begins, Finland right now 😁

https://youtu.be/LwihxyJ4V20