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Winter 2021/2022 - General Discussion

  • 29-07-2021 12:59pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,598 ✭✭✭✭ Supercell


    Seeing as last years thread started on August first last year maybe it's time..

    Out on my run yesterday I couldnt help notice that there was a lot of leaves on the road for the first time in months and the air was decidedly autumnal in temperature. It made me start wondering what winter is going to be like.

    Last year whilst not the stuff of legend did give a few decent wintery blasts (well, decent for a location about a mile from the coast in south Dublin).

    I'm getting my long term forecast in now, mild, wet and blowy with frequent named storms and no snow recorded here on the ground and maybe 1-3 days with it falling December to Febuary 2022.

    .

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/

    Post edited by Gonzo on


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,900 ✭✭✭✭ leahyl


    Love to see this thread opening! There's no Autumn thread though is there?! 😯



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,595 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Last winter was close to what I would like our average winter to be, maybe still slightly below par though because it was just a bit too Atlantic driven for my liking and not the exciting kind (there was hardly any storms) with the mild/wet period in mid-Dec and a very wet January with slow moving fronts up against blocking to the north but not enough cold air fed from the east. The February easterly was also a big disaster. The novelty of snow on New Year's Eve was cool even if it was barely a dusting, the severe frost on 9 January was interesting especially with no snow even though it was the coldest morning since December 2010 for most and the localised snowfall I had on 24 January that was mainly a northeast coastal Dublin affair. 6 December was a great day too with persistent freezing fog nearly all day.

    Not counting our surface conditions, it was such an unusual season though with vast amounts of blocking in the Arctic Circle that wouldn't recede until the intensification of the stratospheric polar vortex through mid-February. The last time there was that amount of high latitude blocking for such a prolonged period of time was probably either winter 2009-10 or March 2013.

    As for 2021-22, first thing I look out for is the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures come late November and see how they are doing. Right now, the North Atlantic is just in a very warm state in general which doesn't give much indication besides the onset of an active hurricane season perhaps in a month's time.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,239 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Winter 2020/2021 was such a tease, we came fairly close to have a few noteworthy snow events but just couldn't pull it off and we ended up with the usual trace amounts of snow/dustings however when it was cold it felt like proper winter. The coldest day of last winter was not from a cold plunge, northerly or easterly but was from inversion on Sunday December 6th with dense freezing fog and a daytime high of -1C locally at Dunsany.

    What will this winter bring? I've honestly no idea at this stage far too early to tell but I'm going to go with my gut feeling and that is a mostly mild winter that may contain 1 or 2 very cold weeks and 1 notable snow event. My thoughts on this will probably change alot in the coming months as we get a clearer signal of what this winter could bring.



  • Registered Users Posts: 929 ✭✭✭ compsys


    I'd imagine any leaves were to do with heat stress as opposed to cool weather. In the East at least we've had slightly above to very above normal temperatures since the end of May.

    Leaves on the ground in Ireland in July aren't a sign of winter or autumn coming.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Is it too early to start a Spring 2022 thread while we're at it? I reckon this winter will be cooler than this summer.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,105 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    As someone who likes cold spells in winter last winter was better then the last 2 and better then many since 2010/11 but flattered to decieve especially the cold spell of February. The synoptics around Xmas looked good on paper but the air wasn't cold enough.

    Perhaps last winter was some kind of attempt at a low solar minimum like winter like what we had a decade before. We are at the point in the current solar cycle of coming out of the minimum (as we were last winter) which can give cold winters so I'm hopeful this winter might be a step up from last winter.

    Post edited by Billcarson on


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,057 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Hoping for a repeat of the winter 2013 - 2014, only better, which would be more akin to winter 89-90.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,748 ✭✭✭✭ Beechwoodspark


    Hopefully we get at least 6 weeks of sustained cold with the attendant frost and snow events. December and January most promising months for this.

    Ideally we have a re run of the winter of 1963 - would be interesting to say the least !



  • Registered Users Posts: 67 ✭✭ Niall145


    I was lucky enough to be in that part of North Dublin that got the proper lying snow in late January (was surreal seeing the beaches covered in snow), also spent a beautiful snowy day in Wicklow at the start of that month, proper fairytale stuff.

    Still, it was a winter full of teases that didnt really deliver, hoping for something a bit more exciting this winter.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,057 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    On the plus side, countless days with big thunder! We have had very tame winters since then in fairness.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,105 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    Another thing about that winter was despite the lack of cold,frost and snow etc it wasn't a particularly mild winter either. Max temps often in the 7c - 9c range,therefore the reason for example why the Highlands of Scotland got plenty of snow that winter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,582 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Last winter was a right 'ol tease, however the snow and low temperatures around January 6th to 10th saved what was an otherwise close but no cigar akin to 2012/13 (if my memory serves me correctly).

    Barring a massive swing to El Nino this winter, we should see alot of western/northwestern blocking I think and that should bode well for arctic and Scandinavian incursions. The jet has been in two states really for a decent time now:

    • weakened
    • southerly amplified

    Both good if you like Ireland to experience more continental style weather patterns.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,717 ✭✭✭ screamer


    Bit depressing to be thinking of winter already but anyways. I’ll just state for the record that before the autumn and the multitude of posters seeing more berries in trees than ever before, the hawthorn tree in my garden was complete white with blossoms this summer, as in you couldn’t see anything but white. So, I’ll expect a bumper crop of haw berries which has no way to predict with how harsh the winter will be.

    Dunno what the winter will be like just yet, I’ll wait till end of August and I’ll have a better idea.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,105 ✭✭✭ Billcarson




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,171 ✭✭✭ OldRio


    Ah Now........... Winter?..........


    Although, I must check our heating oil.



  • Registered Users Posts: 982 ✭✭✭ Lucreto


    I leave for a few months and the whole website changes!

    I am more confident of a cold Winter this year but not my much. Last Winter was colder than the previous two. I feel it was a set up Winter for this year, similar to end of 2009 to what we got in 2010. We got a bit of a heatwave in 2010 and in 2018. The small out we just had has me more positive for this Winter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 290 ✭✭ spoonerhead


    This thread just gets earlier every year…



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭ Tyrone212


    I'm hoping for an interesting winter whether it be storms or snow, hopefully a good mixture of both. There's is nothing more boring in winter than mild,dry, and cloudy weather that lasts over a week at a time(IMO).

    I think we are overdue a very wet and stormy spell in Winter. My worthless prediction for late Autumn/Early Winter is severe flooding in the Shannon basin in November. A couple of hefty storms that month. Cold more settled with snow at times in the first the half of December. Later half of December intense storms with one exceptional severe storm around Christmas before settling down to something more seasonal from the North to see out last 4 days of the year with frosts and snow for some.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 22,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Loughc


    I missed this thread opening this year. All aboard the rollercoaster that is winter hope.



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 22,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Loughc


    I miss the crisp frosty mornings. Definitely don’t see too many of them anymore.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 22,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Loughc


    Any early indicators for this Winter?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,811 ✭✭✭ billyhead




  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 22,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Loughc




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,761 ✭✭✭ ongarite


    Good, with record breaking energy prices across Europe, it will suit the majority in keeping the hit to their bank balance as low as possible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,105 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    This well above average September could well be making the bed for the coming winter. We will have to lie in it. Not what I want. But the one positive is it would help with the heating bills.

    Atm I reckon a mild and dry winter is most likely.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,152 ✭✭✭ mcburns07


    We've had a lot of warmer and drier than average months this year (6 out of 9 warmer and 7 out of 9 drier for Roches Point), I'd be surprised if that run continues for the next 6 months.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,105 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    Well if it won't be mild and dry , mild and wet. One or the other. Either way mild imo.

    Wouldn't be at all surprised if this winter will be one of the mildest on record.



This discussion has been closed.
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