FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

GFS 12z continues high pressure from beginning to end however some of the ensemble members are still flirting with cold. There is an extreme cold outlier which is probably the coldest chart i've seen all winter. This basically has 0.001% chance of happening but if it did we would end up with daytime temperatures around -5 or possibly lower and nighttime temperatures well past -10C particularly if there was snow cover. Now this is a proper northerly and not the amateur hour stuff we normally get from the north.

Imagine if this ended up verifying. The would certainly make up for the all the crap we've been through this winter. Sadly this is highly unlikely. -10C uppers over the Costa Del Sol too! Uppers around Ireland close to -20C.

Yeah it's an amazing run. I'm sure there has been times in the past we got things this cold. I think this run is possibly colder than December 2010? Hopefully the pub run has a few more good ones. I may as well post them here just for fun as there is not much fun in posting the same high pressure charts over and over between now and February!.

GFS 12z continues to tease us with some extreme cold outliers but as long as they keep appearing even in their limited form, there is still a chance of some cold or very cold conditions on the table. There is still hope we may go into a wintry spell in the final 5 days of January although most of them look no more than 2 or 3 days of proper cold.

There are a few others in the GFS 12z set that get close to the above and with some more upgrades several others could potentially fall in line.

The GEM 12z is also producing a few cold outliers for now. Something I haven't seen on the GEM for quite some time.

I do feel we are perhaps edging slightly closer towards the models becoming more interesting in the next week, however as always these remain very much outliers and we need alot more of them to come onboard within the next week if we are to get a chance of cold and snow in the final days of January.

The main trend i'm seeing from most of the GFS and GEM ensembles is that as we enter the final week of January the cold really builds to our north-west, north and north-east so the potential to get a very cold period will increaase and will pay off dividends if we do, but as always we will need loads of luck for the sun, moon and stars to all align at the right time for us.

GFS pub run rolling out.

Could we be finally seeing an end to the high pressure? A fairly active low pressure moving across the Atlantic towards Ireland could change where we go from next week? Let's see how the rest of the run turns out but i'm in the mood for a change. Even if we get the atlantic back temporarily, it may put us in a better position than we are right now which is going nowhere fast. We need a change to reset things.

Edit: a failed attempt at bringing back the Atlantic and getting rid of the high pressure. It goes south to Spain for a few days and then comes back right over us. We just can't get rid of it. If tonights run was to run in the middle of July we would be having a 1976 style summer with low to high twenties regularly.

GEM 6z set of ensembles beginning to show signs of latching onto cold during final week of January. Not a whole lot of support but it's good to see the GEM beginning to move away from solidly mild charts.

This one is particularly nice.

Like the GFS, there are only a few members bringing in proper cold, we need more of these to start falling in line soon and if we get that then we need support from the other models too.

Tonights Pub run may have been really poor but overall an upgrade with the ensemble members. A fairly big swing to cold to colder than average temperatures pushed forward from January 29th to January 25th.

Would like to see more upgrades tomorrow on both the GFS and GEM suite of models and positive signs developing on the ECM and Icon over the next few days for this trend to carry any weight.

All models now hinting at an end to the high pressure and a return of the mild westerlies or south-westerlies for the beginning of February.

ECM: The high begins to retreat into the continent and we are bathed in very mild south-westerlies

GEM: The high sinks south back to Spain/Portugal and we are in a very mild westerly and may turn more unsettled

GFS:

Probably the coolest option, high sinks to our south and cooler westerlies to north-westerlies are back and potentially becoming very windy.

First time in almost 3 weeks the models are agreeing on something that isn't high pressure dominated. The models could easily back track to high pressure at this early stage. Let's see what happens over the next few days.

It will turn colder at some point but recent Februarys have been mild or very mild. Winter 2019/2022 had no cold weather whatsoever and this winter appears no different either. We may not turn cold till March or April.

Yep I think it could be a deluge month and possibly quiet stormy. The PV isn't messing around over the next few weeks as it may ramp up to become very energetic by the time we get to February.

The NAO and particularly the AO could go very positive so expect a serious jetstream.

If all this verifies this is the final nail in the coffin for this winter.