FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118374963#Comment_118374963

The warmth this year has been fairly sustained and that is very unusual for Ireland. Milder than average winter months are the form horse for Ireland but not a year with 2 very warm summer months, an exceptionally warm to hot September plus warm October, warm November and fairly mild December all in the same year. February and March this year were also very mild so we are certainly overdue a persistent run of colder than average temperatures lasting several weeks at the very least. I hope we are not left waiting till Spring or early summer for this to happen.

Larbre34

I disagree with that. We aren't really due anything. I mean the maths of the thing doesn't work like that.

For starters, colder than average temps in Ireland are exceptional due to our geographical location and then we are so small, that we need a heck of a lot to go right for a PV episode to impact us heavily.

Will we get cold weather again? Yes.

Will it be this winter just because we had a prolonged hot spell in the summer gone by? No.

It's like attributing the prolonged Lotto rollover to the rollout rate of the vaccine. Zero correlation whatsoever. We could just as likely get ten winters in a row with a snowbound month in each, as we are to get ten winters without a flake to be seen.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376415#Comment_118376415

Colder than average isn’t particularly cold in this country. The point is we’re due an average or colder than average month at some stage. The chances of continuing this run of warmer than average months are low. Nobody said anything about snow, we all know snow in this country requires a lot of things to go our way, far more tricky to achieve than a colder than average month…..

Gonzo

Colder than average happens regularly in Ireland, especially during the summer months when an entire summer of zonality would bring several weeks/months of colder than average conditions with cloud, wind and rain. Atlantic weather usually results in below average temperatures during the summer unless a warm south-westerly is involved.

During the latter part of Autumn, all of winter and early Spring the same Atlantic driven pattern would result in milder than average or significantly milder than average temperatures especially if it's a south-westerly wind direction. A perfect example of this over the coming week.

2021 has almost aligned everything perfectly to bring about a milder than average year due to the mild second half of winter 2020/2021 in February and then the very mild start to Spring during March. If it wasn't for the cold April and May then this year would have been exceptional for warm temperature anomalies.

June and July were both significantly warmer than average with temperatures into the low 20s for much of the time and mid/high 20s in places. August was more average and then the heat came back from September and the warmth along with humidity continued until the end of November. It didn't really feel like we had an autumn this year and now here we are 1/3 of the way through winter and it's very mild again.

Dunsany has a mean average yearly temperature of 9.3C. The past few years it has managed to reach higher than the average around 9.5 to 9.7. The past 2 winters were exceptionally mild which would have helped and of course in 2018 we had the very warm to hot summer helping the yearly average. I won't know the final figure for 2021 until next week but at the moment Dunsany is sitting on 9.9C for this year and is very likely to reach 10.0C to end this year. Not sure Dunsany see's many yearly means of 10C or more but looks like 2021 is going to be one of them.

Gonzo

After a relatively mild and very unsettled Christmas period we will bring 2021 to a close on an exceptionally mild to warm note with temperatures possibly reaching 14 or 15C in places over the next 5 days (particularly New Years Eve, Day and the 2nd of January. After that the models are starting to suggest a fairly considerable cool down to more average to slightly above normal temperatures. Alot of scatter after January 4th with about 60% of the ensembles mild or very mild and the other 40% cool to cold.

There is a growing level of support for a significant cold outbreak after January 10th to plunge south-eastwards over northern Europe and down into Greece. A few other models push this cold south-westwards towards France and Spain. Most to these runs give Ireland a glancing blow of outer edge low level cold for a day or so. A tiny minority does bring something colder to Ireland but these for now are very much outliers. However it does look likely that the extreme mildness of the coming week won't last and we may end up with standard January weather after this period. I would like to see more of the ensembles trend colder over the next few days as the latest run is not as overly mild throughout as they have been recently.

All the models are showing no shortage of cold just to our north and east as we head towards mid January, so if we were to get lucky there would be cold air to tap into which is interesting.

pauldry

I don't believe anything the models say anymore after the mess they made the past few weeks. Also forecasts this time of year are pretty useless. Only sure thing is it will be milder than average for a week.

2021 has certainly been a mild year in Sligo. Rarely have I seen the thermometer go below 7c since April. Frostless more or less too this Winter. I'm sure the mild will continue and we may get a few short shots of cold in between.

Gonzo

Have to admit the models really performed brutaly in the run up to Christmas, although this was mainly the GFS and UKMO. The ECM jumped on the polar express briefly but backed off rather quickly while the Icon model performed perfectly and was the one to watch during this period.

The weather of the next 5 days in particular is anything but normal, records are likely to be broken for warmth around New Years eve, particularly in the UK with 17C possible with the Fohn effect in some areas. Here in Ireland 15C is possible, still extreme and night time temperatures of around 12 or 13C. Those temperatures wouldn't be out of place mid July.

This sort of extreme temperature is similar to extreme cold in that it won't last more than a few days and then it will be gone. From the 4th of January it looks like temperatures will take a steep decline to more sensible levels. The GFS is continuing to trend colder from this period and is starting to look slightly cooler than average.

There may be another attempt to get the ridge of high pressure going back over Scandi again and a very cold plunge is likely somewhere between UK and and Greece but my money would be on central Europe/Greece to get a major cold spell going within the next 2 weeks. I don't think the next Scandi high will be successful for us as the models are also showing renewed strength to the PV over Greenland and Canada and this would likely result in lots of Atlantic low pressures lining themselves up for us and any Scandi high would get collapsed back into Russia. Definitely it looks like we could be facing another battleground situation once we get this extreme warmth out of the way.

mcburns07

Hopefully we get something of interest in the new year. Feels like it has been a very boring year for weather here in Cork. One massively hyped storm that wasn’t particularly eventful in the end, the heatwave in July and some blink and you missed it snow in Jan.

Gonzo

I get the feeling this extremely extended milder than average anomaly which has been almost uninterrupted since June has to come to an end soon. I think we will see a shift into February to more standard Irish winter weather with maybe some brief northerlies or some cold zonal. March could be interesting. The extremely mild/warm pattern since June is still here and can't go on for much longer. The south-westerlies over the next few days are no ordinary south-westerlies either, they are sourced from along way south close to Bermuda/The tropics and en route via the Canaries/The Azores and up over us. There is plenty of cold going into the mid latatudes but not for us, the cold is over Scandi and may push down into eastern Europe/Greece on it's next plunge. There is also a very cold plunge into eastern Canada while the west of Canada and much of eastern United States is excessively warm. Another very cold plunge into Japan, China and Korea. As usual we are on the warmest possible side of the blocking. Let's hope we see significant changes second half of January and into February.

Gonzo

GFS 12z is interesting. The high pressure and extreme warmth is currently sitting over North Africa/Canaries and nudging into Southern Spain. Over the course of the next 10 days it will ridge up over keeping us very warm but after the 4th, The Azores looks like moving westwards and well out into the Atlantic heading for United States. We set up a north-west to south-west alignment, while this wouldn't be cold it would certainly cooler than what we've experienced recently.

Excessive warmth over western Europe by New Years Eve.

By January 10th the Azores has travelled to the mid Atlantic and is still on route to the United States/Bermuda and ends up near America, however the Azores then tracks back to it's usual location and doesn't quite make it to United States which would have been most interesting.

The second week of January may well start to turn rather stormy with deep areas of low pressure barreling their way over Ireland and it would be rather cool with temperatures in the 5 to 8C range during daytime. GFS keeps us fairly chilly after this but not properly cold.

GEM also looking interesting but turns us significantly colder via a northerly and then some high pressure with plenty of frost and temperatures struggling to get much above freezing after the 4th of January.

While the GEM is not exciting it would make things feel a bit more like winter.

UKMO also turns things colder from the 4th, however this would likely be only for a day or so.

A bit of a mixed bag from the models but the overall trend is to cool things down from the excessive warmth around 4th of January and then a more wintry flavor to the weather with perhaps a brief northerly swipe and some cold zonality to follow.

Gonzo

Not much change today in the models. Turns cooler from January 4th then westerlies take over up to mid month so flat as a pancake and very zonal. Unless there is a sudden and major shift in the models within the next 2 weeks we will have to wait another year for a cold January. The PV is going to remain fairly powerful throughout January so I would expected this January to be very similar to January 2019 which was Atlantic driven, mostly mild or very mild with maybe a day or so of transitional low level cold and potential for stormy conditions.

Meteorite58

ECM and GFS for a few runs now firming up on going with the colder theme from early next week around Tuesday . UKMO also looks like initially cold and a milder interlude of a day or so as frontal activity goes through on Weds and looks set to return to the cold. Has a wintry look, initially N'ly, brief switch to SW'ly and veering again back to cold W'ly and NW'ly. Wintry mix of showers and maybe some convective weather with hail becoming a feature again. White tops on mountains look possible at times, some frosty nights and mornings perhaps. Looks set to be blustery at times next week also if not quite windy for parts as we enter a strong airflow along the polar front between the colder and milder airmasses.

Looks like Atlantic coastal counties into the Western half of the country soaking up most of the predicted precipitation.

Gonzo

Hard to believe but the snow charts are starting to reappear. As usual the GFS likes to overplay this and as the events get closer the snow charts downgrade as even cold zonality is usually highly marginal stuff. High ground definitely likely to see snow in about a weeks time, most likely cold rain or sleet to lower levels.

While this may not be what we want a proper easterly or NE'erly, this is more interesting and seasonal than the blow torch conditions and deluges we have right now.

sicknotexi

Ah! go on then.

Gonzo

Definitely a cold trend appearing on the GFS Ensembles from mid January. There are quite a few ensemble members bringing moderate to severe cold, some of them colder than this operational run. A few January 1987s in there. But lets not get excited just yet, this is a long way off and we are still all a bit tired and burnt out from the epic failure leading up to Christmas. Perhaps the models are going to start getting very confused again with this area of high pressure and model uncertainty will ramp up over the next week. If this happens we will need to pay more attention to the Icon which called everything correctly in the 2 week period leading up to Christmas.

I won't be buying a ticket unless all models are showing this within 120 hours.

Donegal Ken

After the last circus I wouldn't be buying anything past 72 hours 😂

Gonzo

GFS ensembles already showing signs of backing away from the cold trend we saw yesterday. There is still a cold trend at the very end but it is not encouraging to see this being reduced, surprise surprise.

Pa ElGrande

North Atlantic Churns the Most Intense Storm of the Winter Season 2021/22 - heading for Iceland

Interesting write up.

Gonzo

Northern blocking may come back for the second half of January.

Nao goes weakly negative and the ao may go very much into negative territory. Of course even if this happens somewhere will end up on the mild side of the block (usually us) while other places will be on the cold side of the block. Hopefully we get more luck with the blocking if it happens later in the month.

As for an SSW, there is absolutely no sign of that happening between now and mid January.

Gonzo

GFS 12z restores some faith in these extremely early signs of a cold trend from mid January. Several of them going for cold or very cold conditions.

The 12z operational has decent signals for cold weather but several other members are going quite a bit colder than it.

A tame easterly for January 13th.

GFS continues looking cold from this date and finishes up in the freezer at 384 hours.

Charts looking decent for a colder second half of January, but we will have to wait till 12/13th January before we even think about getting excited.

Gonzo

The CFS wants to bring us some very cold conditions for February. This almost certainly won't verify but shows were we need the high pressure to stall if we're to have a decent chance of cold and snow this winter.

A ridge centered between Greenland and Iceland with some ridging into the Atlantic to block away those low pressures. The blocking we had in the run up to Christmas looked good for a while but there was no ridging into the Atlantic so the Atlantic just rolled in, the high pressure cut off to the north and our hopes of a cold Christmas busted. This is the sort of chart you need to see within 72 hours to start feeling very excited. Unfortunately the majority of these lovely charts fail to verify with them being so far outside of the reliable time frame.

Gonzo

The models over the weekend have been nothing short of a horror show for cold and snow. If the current set of models are to verify the rest of January looks relatively mild and often dry with high pressure around well into the 3rd week of January and back to regular zonality after that. The Polar Vortex is fairly strong and continues to keep high pressure either over us to our south with no sign of any movement northwards with conveyer belt of low pressure constantly moving west to east from Northern Canada, across to Greenland/Iceland and Scandinavia, keeping the cold bottled towards the artic circle.

There is some frosty nights in the models but even on those nights temperatures barely getting down to 0C widely. We remain on the mild side of the ridge throughout with mild winds topping over the high pressure from the Atlantic. Absolutely no sign of cold or snow any time soon. We're back to very familiar territory with any signs of cold always being pushed 10 to 15 days away. The way things are looking this winter is shaping up to be every bit of a failure as Winter 2019/2020 when the Polar Vortex remained at record breaking levels throughout that winter. By the final week of January we will only have a 2 week window left for chasing prime time cold and snow. The clock will be ticking fairly quickly by that stage.

Hopefully by next Sunday the charts will start to look a bit more interesting because these charts are absolutely dire.

mcburns07

I think we've had one frost here in Cork this winter so far. Still early days I suppose. The dry week coming up is most welcome even if it is on the milder side 👌🏻

John.Icy

Out of seemingly nowhere (though some did point out next week had some interest if things went right), the 6Z throws out an interesting run...throws some very cold air down over us next week for a short while.

Reality says it's not happening...strange for one of the big boys to go on such a tangent. 6Z is usually a very mobile run too. This is pub run style stuff.

EDIT: Not without some support in the ensembles...things just got interesting!

Kermit.de.frog

Big enough changes between 96 and 120 hrs on the GFS, short notice. More amplification of the jet over the north Atlantic and a bigger emphasis on height increasing over Greenland. Need to see it backed up.

Snow senses not quite tingling yet but they may be later today 🤭

almostthere12

Didn't the 12z look fairly positive on the GFS as well yesterday? This looks a bit better again though.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118454450#Comment_118454450

It did indeed. Todays 6z looks better than it. Long long way to go and not being led up the garden path again! If tonight’s ECM and UKMO are showing it then I will get a small bit excited.

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118454360#Comment_118454360

Have you hacked the GFS?

I'd say it'll back down by the 12z. It would be very sweet if we got a deep freeze out of nowhere, just as the Christmas cold spell was taken away at short range! Unfortunately it only seems to work when mild comes out of nowhere.

pauldry

Yes there were a few Northerly plunges showing over the UK on some of the runs even before today. So we may get a few short cold bursts of wintry showers yet so that it feels more seasonal than yesterday

Gonzo

the 12z looks good but needs more upgrades. The northerly is very short lived and it's a typical dry northerly. However there is scope in the models for more exciting things to happen further down the line. We would need the ECM, GEM and especially the safe Icon model to get in line for this to have any sort of credibility.

The GFS was playing around with a cold spell for over a week now but it began backtracking on it over the past 2 days and was gone by yesterday afternoon. Good to see a chilly blip back but i'd like to see something a bit more snowy and prolonged show up!