Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

bucketybuck

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Interesting news from Germany
https://twitter.com/siobhandowling/status/1410599248232534025?s=21

But the public health experts say there is no value to antigen testing. :rolleyes:

Captain_Crash

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The people making sly references to his wife's death and potential effect are being pricks.

It’s been a while since I commented on this thread, but this stands out. I’d agree that it’s not cool to be making comments about his wife etc and I don’t support it and think it crosses the line… but, if someone loses someone so close, it’s obvious it will impact them in ways most of us don’t want to contemplate!

The most common thing you hear about recovering from a loss like that is to find an outlet, something to take your mind off it! In Tony’s case I believe that’s NPHET! It’s always been his baby, but now that he’s lost his wife, it’s his everything and the concept of it losing it’s importance is something he can’t handle! The letter the other day was akin to a wounded animal knowing it’s nearly over and making one last swipe! One last aggressive attack.

I don’t like the man, but I don’t think what’s happened in the last 48hrs is sinister, I do believe it’s an emotional reaction to what he knows is fading… and that’s NPHETS relevance! They’ll never recommend restrictions be removed in full, we know that and truthfully always did and can’t bring themselves to move to the next phase! My 2c

mightyreds

gozunda wrote: »

You may wish to have a read of this as to modelled outcomes over the next couple of months.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-emergence-and-impact-sars-cov-2-delta-variant

Interestingly enough vulnerable groups who are not yet fully vaccinated and remain at higher risk to COVID-19 include 75% of 60-69 year olds and & 46% 50-59 year olds have not yet received a second dose and cohort 7 who are yet to be completed

I think 50% of 60-69 and 80% of 50-59 are done, that was 3 days ago probably a small bit higher now

the kelt

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Interesting news from Germany
https://twitter.com/siobhandowling/status/1410599248232534025?s=21

Yet when we had a report done on the effectiveness of antigen testing our cmo didn’t even have the manners to look at the report, dismissing it, according to the Matt Cooper show this eve.

Lumen

OK, I expect this to be both boring and controversial but bear with me. For the avoidance of doubt I don't have a covidboner for Israel, I just think they're a useful comparison as they were so far ahead in their vaccination programme.

On 19 June I wrote:

Israel saw a decent drop start after they hit 65 doses/100, and another when they hit 100/100. We should be at the first of those points at mid-June even if we don't ramp up from the current rate of 0.8 doses/100/day

To expand on this point about Israel's first inflection point, they saw cases drop from around 800/mn/day on Feb 7 @ 65 doses/100 to around 400/mn/day on Feb 22 @ 87 doses/100. That's a halving over two weeks. They then flat-spotted for a while until they hit 100 doses/100.

Mapping these vaccination thresholds to Ireland, we had 74 cases/mn/day on June 9 @ 63 doses/100 (ahead of my prediction). We haven't hit 87 doses/100 yet, that's around 4.35m doses, but we should do around 4 July at around 59/mn/day. We won't get to 100/100 until late July.

So whilst we haven't achieved Israel's initial halving of cases, we'll still have seen a respectable 20% drop in cases in these last four weeks, and we're still running at only 15% of cases that Israel had at the equivalent point in their vaccination rollout, when they were still under heavy restrictions.

Israel didn't "open fully" until early March, and then only with covid passes, which we're also proposing to do (despite resistance) in late July at around the same second "magic" threshold of 100 doses/100 people, i.e. 5 million doses.

We could still see the same pattern as they had, even with Delta, albeit shifted in time by four months.

So how is Israel's re-opening considered an international success, but Ireland's a total disaster? Is seems like a combination of justified loss of patience with vaccine supplies and fury at the incredibly weak signalling and lack of forward planning. But interestingly, Israel's green pass only supports negative tests for minors, and even then they have to be PCR, so both NPHET's advocacy of domestic covid passes and opposition to rapid testing matches policy in Israel.

Why didn't the government announce back in May that the EU digital covid cert with PCR testing would be used for indoor dining and pubs on a time-limited trial basis (say, three months) from early July? There would still have been bitching about how Paddy wouldn't stand for having his papers checked at the door of the pub and PCR testing was far too expensive, but at least they'd be able to point at Israel as a success story for near-elimination of Covid, and we'd have had a few weeks to get used to the idea.

Instead expectations were set that we'd have a largely unrestricted re-opening of indoor activities from early July, until the NPHET bomb went off with only a week to go.

In summary, it seems to me that the worst part of Ireland's re-opening strategy has been the incredibly poor planning and messaging, rather than the excessive caution of the public health advice.

I realise that NPHET are hate figures right now, but I think it's fairer to put the blame squarely at the door of the government who are ultimately responsible for setting the quality, quantity and pacing of re-opening.

Looking beyond Israel, it is true that by EU norms our current restrictions seem completely loopy, but we do share a land border with the epicentre of delta in Europe, and one of two of our hotspots is Donegal. Another country with early Delta seeding is Portugal, who have seen cases rising sharply for the last month, and they share a border with Spain who have also seen cases jump in the last few days.

None of this addresses the argument that we should just forget about cases and re-open regardless, but good luck finding an infectious disease specialist that agrees with you. People were advancing the same case a few weeks ago referencing the UK's much wider return to normality, and yet the UK seems to be seriously wobbling at this point.

Flame away! This is, after all, the rage thread.

sp00k

namloc1980 wrote: »

Some amount of doom from that briefing. 4.1m vaccine doses administered and less than a bus full of people in hospital, we should be in a brilliant place. Tony talking about restrictions/lockdowns and the need to protect return to school. Absolute doom merchants.

Not to mention that some of these people are in hospital with covid, not because of covid.

lawred2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't think Tony Holohan is unhinged. Acutely cautious but not mad or unhinged. The people making sly references to his wife's death and potential effect are being pricks.

That wasn't me anyway. That's well out of order.

agoodpunt

so once we are all vaccinated a new variant will be opon us so at least give us a summer glad i have my youth this will not stop so longer restrictions going forward

Captain_Crash

Captain_Crash wrote: »

It’s been a while since I commented on this thread, but this stands out. I’d agree that it’s not cool to be making comments about his wife etc and I don’t support it and think it crosses the line… but, if someone loses someone so close, it’s obvious it will impact them in ways most of us don’t want to contemplate!

The most common thing you hear about recovering from a loss like that is to find an outlet, something to take your mind off it! In Tony’s case I believe that’s NPHET! It’s always been his baby, but now that he’s lost his wife, it’s his everything and the concept of it losing it’s importance is something he can’t handle! The letter the other day was akin to a wounded animal knowing it’s nearly over and making one last swipe! One last aggressive attack.

I don’t like the man, but I don’t think what’s happened in the last 48hrs is sinister, I do believe it’s an emotional reaction to what he knows is fading… and that’s NPHETS relevance! They’ll never recommend restrictions be removed in full, we know that and truthfully always did and can’t bring themselves to move to the next phase! My 2c

Wow. Just wow.

beaz2018

That clip going around of Tony and Glynn laughing at the end of the presser about cancelling communions,with Tony blocking his face with a sheet is sick. What the fook is so funny, do they have any clue what they are putting people through. If this delta was so serious, it’s hard to believe they’d be behaving like that.

bear1

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0701/1232493-covid-figures-nphet/

God he's insufferable

gozunda

mightyreds wrote: »

I think 50% of 60-69 and 80% of 50-59 are done, that was 3 days ago probably a small bit higher now

The figures quoted were in the Nphet briefing letter dated the 28th linked previously on this thread. . Have you a link for the updated figures?

It may be a fourth wave, which sounds scary, but hospitalizations and deaths will be very much a ripple!

funnydoggy

beaz2018 wrote: »

That clip going around of Tony and Glynn laughing at the end of the presser about cancelling communions,with Tony blocking his face with a sheet is sick. What the fook is so funny, do they have any clue what they are putting people through. If this delta was so serious, it’s hard to believe they’d be behaving like that.

Where is this clip? Jesus

KaneToad

beaz2018 wrote: »

That clip going around of Tony and Glynn laughing at the end of the presser about cancelling communions,with Tony blocking his face with a sheet is sick. What the fook is so funny, do they have any clue what they are putting people through. If this delta was so serious, it’s hard to believe they’d be behaving like that.

People often laugh at things in work.

aziz

beaz2018 wrote: »

That clip going around of Tony and Glynn laughing at the end of the presser about cancelling communions,with Tony blocking his face with a sheet is sick. What the fook is so funny, do they have any clue what they are putting people through. If this delta was so serious, it’s hard to believe they’d be behaving like that.

That’s sickening

aziz

KaneToad wrote: »

People often laugh at things in work.

But not on national television

mightyreds

gozunda wrote: »

The figures quoted were in the Nphet briefing letter dated the 28th linked previously on this thread. . Have you a link for the updated figures?

Yeah I had a look at the article you posted in your post and it's on that website, maybe thats wrong I'm not sure

KaneToad

aziz wrote: »

But not on national television

Is national television sacred?

aziz

KaneToad wrote: »

Is national television sacred?

You know damm well it isn’t but do you believe that is a proper way to act

Michael Martin could have made himself the most popular politician in the country by over-ruling NPHETs pessimistic models.

It's like he has the sword of Damocles above his head, multiple times, and begging for it to be released each time.

Bizarre for a politician. Bizarre.

Something tells me that if Varadkar were Taoiseach, he would have taken the politically expedient move.

Fils

aziz wrote: »

That’s sickening

Tony farted I’d say and Philip couldn’t hold it in.

KaneToad

aziz wrote: »

You know damm well it isn’t but do you believe that is a proper way to act

Laughing after a press conference is not a big deal. They are public health experts advising the govt on public health matters. Your ire at them is misplaced.

Santan

Prime time is just embarrassing tonight, basically saying if we open up, it's going to be an unmitigated disaster, sickens me that my parents watch this **** and close to their 80's believe what rte says for the most part

Lumen

eskimohunt wrote: »

Michael Martin could have made himself the most popular politician in the country by over-ruling NPHETs pessimistic models.

It's like he has the sword of Damocles above his head, multiple times, and begging for it to be released each time.

Bizarre for a politician. Bizarre.

Something tells me that if Varadkar were Taoiseach, he would have taken the politically expedient move.

Varadkar is hurling from the ditch. As Tánaiste he has more room to speculate about easing restrictions. If the govt follow his leaking and briefing he looks prescient, if those decisions turn out bad he knows FF will get the blame (like at Christmas), if the govt follow NPHET he looks brave without ever having his counterproposals tested.

I imagine he's loving it.

Fils

Santan wrote: »

Prime time is just embarrassing tonight, basically saying if we open up, it's going to be an unmitigated disaster, sickens me that my parents watch this **** and close to their 80's believe what rte says for the most part

It is pure dung, who is the fella with the bum fluff on his face banging out facts and figured thinking he is god?

aziz

KaneToad wrote: »

Laughing after a press conference is not a big deal. They are public health experts advising the govt on public health matters. Your ire at them is misplaced.

If I thought for one minute that they were laughing at the chaos they have caused for the thousands of children making their communion and confirmations and the grief that the parents are going through,then I wouldn’t be responsible for my actions

MOH

gozunda wrote: »

You may wish to have a read of this as to modelled outcomes over the next couple of months.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-emergence-and-impact-sars-cov-2-delta-variant

Interestingly enough vulnerable groups who are not yet fully vaccinated and remain at higher risk to COVID-19 include 75% of 60-69 year olds and & 46% 50-59 year olds have not yet received a second dose and cohort 7 who are yet to be completed

Have you had an oul' read yourself?

Modelling scenarios indicate that any relaxation over the summer months of the stringency of nonpharmaceutical measures that were in place in the EU/EEA in early June could lead to a fast and significant increase in daily cases in all age groups, with an associated increase in hospitalisations, and deaths, potentially reaching the same levels of the autumn of 2020 if no additional measure are taken.

You do realise that the reference to relaxation of measures in place is a generalisation across the EU?

It's not saying that nowhere in the EU should relax any measure?

normanoffside

funnydoggy wrote: »

Where is this clip? Jesus

From about 1:18 here

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1410625910190100480

PTH2009

Fils wrote: »

It is pure dung, who is the fella with the bum fluff on his face banging out facts and figured thinking he is god?

I'm sure he's from a family with connections who are all financially secure