Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

is_that_so

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The 19th July is the date the government have proposed to have the EU green cert available. It is almost certainly going to be repurposed to allow indoor dining for the vaccinated on or near that date. That is unless updated modelling shows that the next wave will be less severe, then they will relax instead.

Even if indoor dining was restricted for the rest of the summer, the decision would not be within an asses roar of the previous severe restrictions in terms of inconvenience or cost.

They've said no to using it even if they do repurpose and hospitality bodies are emphatically against it. There now seems to be a renewed interest in rapid antigen testing instead. It'll be long after 19 July before it's ready.

Hurrache

LeeroyJ. wrote: »

You have to applaud the vaccine effort, but it raises the question as to what exactly is the endgame here

To avoid this
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410529154978701319

I think the UK at the moment has more cases, not sure if it's total or daily, than the entire EU.

MOH

eskimohunt wrote: »

Getting there!

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1410599174962249737

So Delta is now estimated to now be 55% of cases.

On March 26th Glynn and Varadkar were warning we'd be lucky to keep cases below 500-600 per day due to the UK variant.
On April 1st the 7-day average was 549, May 1st it was 461.

Yesterday's 7-day average is 305.

Despite the fact that in the meantime the Delta variant, the mother of all viral hurricanes, far more transmissible (60% more?) than the UK variant, has grown to 55% of current cases - yet despite all this our cases have dropped by 45% in the past three months?!

That doesn't make sense.

The only possible explanation I can think of for the insane doom warnings is that our case numbers are privately believed to be completely unreliable. We're in the middle of peak hay fever season, Delta symptoms can be similar, maybe they reckon there's a load of people who think they have bad hay fever who aren't bothering to get tested. Or maybe they think most people who have it have such mild symptoms they're not getting tested. And that if there's a huge percentage more cases than known out there, there's a high risk to the older cohort not yet fully vaccinated.

Of course if that were the case then all projections are pointless anyway since the data is unreliable.

MrMusician18

Johns nephew wrote: »

So you believe that in 2.5 weeks time, a few million "vaccine passes" will have been issued and every pub and restaurant in the country will have a device installed to read them? 🤣🤣🤣🤣

The device to read them will be a phone, so yes it's perfectly possible to deploy quickly. The system is in place for EU travel, there are no major additional technical hurdles to overcome here.

Open app, display QR code valid for 5 mins, code is scanned by another app by person on door to say it's valid, then off you go. Simple.

TomTomTim

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Is Gemma o Doherty actually sane???

Am I missing something? Why do people keep bringing up Gemma & John? It's bizarre.

is_that_so

Hurrache wrote: »

To avoid this
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410529154978701319

I think the UK at the moment has more cases, not sure if it's total or daily, than the entire EU.

Why do people keep linking to this self-publicising drama queen? Surely there are other sources without the drama?

is_that_so

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

That lad is possibly the biggest scaremonger going.

I bet you'd be one of the first to take the piss out of someone sharing something from the likes of Gemma O'Doherty or Ivor Cummins but that lad is just the other side of the same coin.

As usual he's also missing some key data, Israel has stalled at about 60% and the UK has vaccine hesitancy of up to 25% in some older groups. Full speed ahead is the answer to Delta.

Patrick2010

I wish people would stop saying its only another couple of weeks when everyone knows it won't be happening.

TomTomTim

is_that_so wrote: »

As usual he's also missing some key data, Israel has stalled at about 60% and the UK has vaccine hesitancy of up to 25% in some older groups. Full speed ahead is the answer to Delta.

The sad thing about of all this hackery from supposedly scientific people, is that that it makes people generally sceptical about science in general. They are tarnishing their whole field, and they don't seem to care.

is_that_so

Patrick2010 wrote: »

I wish people would stop saying its only another couple of weeks when everyone knows it won't be happening.

The only thing that matters at this point is vaccinations, so two weeks on we'll easily break 70% on first shots and over 50% fully vaccinated.

namloc1980

Hurrache wrote: »

To avoid this
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410529154978701319

I think the UK at the moment has more cases, not sure if it's total or daily, than the entire EU.

Again focussing on case numbers only. When will this obsession end?

Israel has a 7 day moving average of deaths of 0. That's Zero deaths.

Serious hospitalisations are down to 29 from 50 a month ago and 100 2 months ago.

https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general

Eivor

is_that_so wrote: »

The only thing that matters at this point is vaccinations, so two weeks on we'll easily break 70% on first shots and over 50% fully vaccinated.

And then watch them move the goalposts once again

Hurrache

is_that_so wrote: »

Why do people keep linking to this self-publicising drama queen? Surely there are other sources without the drama?

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

That lad is possibly the biggest scaremonger going.

I bet you'd be one of the first to take the piss out of someone sharing something from the likes of Gemma O'Doherty or Ivor Cummins but that lad is just the other side of the same coin.

TomTomTim wrote: »

The sad thing about of all this hackery from supposedly scientific people, is that that it makes people generally sceptical about science in general. They are tarnishing their whole field, and they don't seem to care.

It's quite funny that people who don't want to see the data brush it off because they think the person posting it is a 'drama queen' or 'scaremonger' in order to ignore the data, actual real data and figures, that aren't made up or published by him in the first place.

None of the data is his.

namloc1980

Hurrache wrote: »

It's quite funny that people who don't want to see the data brush it off because they think the person posting it is a 'drama queen' or 'scaremonger' in order to ignore the data, actual real data and figures, that aren't made up or published by him in the first place.

namloc1980 wrote: »

Again focussing on case numbers only. When will this obsession end?

Israel has a 7 day moving average of deaths of 0. That's Zero deaths.

Serious hospitalisations are down to 29 from 50 a month ago and 100 2 months ago.

https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general

I've linked to the Israel official dashboard. Knock yourself out. The evidence shows the vaccines work, in fact they work brilliantly. All the metrics are down down down (deaths are 0, serious illness in hospital continues to fall) even as there is more delta cases (which appears more transmissible but less serious/deadly than Alpha or original Covid).

Tchaikovsky

Patrick2010 wrote: »

I wish people would stop saying its only another couple of weeks when everyone knows it won't be happening.

The last 68 weeks have taught us that the next 2 are crucial.

brickster69

Hurrache wrote: »

To avoid this
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410529154978701319

I think the UK at the moment has more cases, not sure if it's total or daily, than the entire EU.

Incredible, fancy the 2 countries that are testing 10 times more than most other countries finding more cases than everyone. Amazing, maybe they should drop testing 95% so they don't look so bad to people on the internet.

Hurrache

namloc1980 wrote: »

I've linked to the Israel official dashboard. Knock yourself out. The evidence shows the vaccines work, in fact they work brilliantly. All the metrics are down down down even as there is more delta cases (which appears more transmissible but less serious/deadly than Alpha or original Covid).

And where's the argument that it doesn't work, not coming from me anyway.

timmyntc

Hurrache wrote: »

It's quite funny that people who don't want to see the data brush it off because they think the person posting it is a 'drama queen' or 'scaremonger' in order to ignore the data, actual real data and figures, that aren't made up or published by him in the first place.

He is scaremongering though.

The UK are seeing big increases in cases, but very modest increases in hospital or deaths. This is proof that vaccines work.

Same goes for Israel - he posted about an 800% increase in cases, but that increase comes from such a low base its incredibly disingenuous to frame things like that.

If we went from 1 case to 8 cases thats an 800% increase too.

Besides UK, USA and Israel have all taken the stance that there will be deaths in future, but with vaccines the overall risk of strain on health system or mass deaths just isnt a thing anymore.

Hurrache

brickster69 wrote: »

Incredible, fancy the 2 countries that are testing 10 times more than most other countries finding more cases than everyone. Amazing, maybe they should drop testing 95% so they don't look so bad to people on the internet.

You should propose your cure for any disease, just don't test for it.

C'mon would ya with that nonsense that people tried to use last year. Are you saying that they've decided to test more lately, and that's the only reason the numbers are increasing?

Tchaikovsky

With the low number of hospitalizations and no risk of death for the young and vaccinated, are we saying that it's now the equivalent of the flu? So we're counting the number of people who have an exotic flu to justify closing everything?

namloc1980

Hurrache wrote: »

And where's the argument that it doesn't work, not coming from me anyway.

You linked to that guy scare mongering about increasing case numbers. Why so?

namloc1980

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

With the low number of hospitalizations and no risk of death for the young and vaccinated, are we saying that it's now the equivalent of the flu? So we're counting the number of people who have an exotic flu to justify closing everything?

The UK will be essentially treating it like any other respiratory illness from the 19th July. We'll be still hiding under the duvet this time next year.

Hurrache

timmyntc wrote: »

He is scaremongering though.

The UK are seeing big increases in cases, but very modest increases in hospital or deaths. This is proof that vaccines work.

Same goes for Israel - he posted about an 800% increase in cases, but that increase comes from such a low base its incredibly disingenuous to frame things like that.

If we went from 1 case to 8 cases thats an 800% increase too.

Besides UK, USA and Israel have all taken the stance that there will be deaths in future, but with vaccines the overall risk of strain on health system or mass deaths just isnt a thing anymore.

Chicken littles are the ones being scared, only thing that matters are the numbers, not published by him, and any comment can be disregarded that he makes outside of the figures coming from the various monitors, universities and health organisations.

But then again, everyone's an actual expert aren't they, apart from the experts themselves.

Dunno why peoples first reply to those numbers were that vaccines work, nobody has said otherwise,

Tchaikovsky

namloc1980 wrote: »

The UK will be essentially treating it like any other respiratory illness from the 19th July. We'll be still hiding under the duvet this time next year.

Bizarre isn't it? I mean, we're looking like a nation of pussies right now.

bloopy

Hurrache wrote: »

To avoid this
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410529154978701319

I think the UK at the moment has more cases, not sure if it's total or daily, than the entire EU.

How many cases per 100000 is that for each country?
The chart jumps from 1 to 10 to 100 with equal size distances between each number.
It is slightly easier to figure out Israel but the others are in quite a large range.

FileNotFound

Hurrache wrote: »

You should propose your cure for any disease, just don't test for it.

C'mon would ya with that nonsense that people tried to use last year. Are you saying that they've decided to test more lately, and that's the only reason the numbers are increasing?

While I support testing like mad, I have wondered how bad seasonal flu would look if we every tested for it like this. We might not even class it as seasonal.


Testing everyone we can is the right thing to do, but cases are really only a concern if they translate into mortality or hospital figures.

I guess we will get to see the Uk rise to 80k+ a day soon - if the NHS isn't seeing any strain then the conversation should switch to risk.

Hurrache

bloopy wrote: »

How many cases per 100000 is that for each country?
The chart jumps from 1 to 10 to 100 with equal size distances between each number.
It is slightly easier to figure out Israel but the others are in quite a large range.

It's from the Financial Times Covid-19 page, details are there I think.

Ballynally

growleaves wrote: »

I can't keep track of all the falsehoods so I'm not sure who is saying that, is anyone is.

I just look at the numbers and at this point dont believe what any expert claims, especially the official ones. I cant separate the chaff from the corn anymore, knowing that many use stats to push a message. So, my default is disbelief until i can check the actual data.
There are a few red flags out there, like:"we are just following the Science" and:" the experts say".

is_that_so

Hurrache wrote: »

It's quite funny that people who don't want to see the data brush it off because they think the person posting it is a 'drama queen' or 'scaremonger' in order to ignore the data, actual real data and figures, that aren't made up or published by him in the first place.

None of the data is his.

Data is data. He's selective and fashions data in very emotive ways and I've pointed out the problem with him on this. There are many others who can deliver the same data, with more details and far less drama but each to their own.

Hurrache

FileNotFound wrote: »

Testing everyone we can is the right thing to do, but cases are really only a concern if they translate into mortality or hospital figures.

While it's the main concern, I wouldn't say it's only really a concern if it doesn't end up as a hospital number.

The long term affects, however low or high the likelihood is, is a serious concern for probably most people. They wouldn't be grateful that it's alright just because they didn't end up in hospital if they're unfortunate to fall victim long term.