Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Snooker Loopy

Bit cynical wrote: »

We've actually very low death and infection rates at the moment here in Ireland. Have had for some time.

Because we introduced Level 5 and because people modified their behaviour.

And as soon as we lift Level 5, the virus will start spreading again.

This is not difficult to understand.

The same thing was said last summer, and last November. "Cases are going down, it's nothing, let's open up!"

Big mistake.

But shure, let's make the same mistake a third time.

Just for the craic, like.

Silentcorner

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

In my view it's clear he didn't have the ear of government nearly enough, or at all. If he actually had the ear of government, we wouldn't have ended up in the situation we did, we would be in a much better situation than we are in.

I've never understood this fascination with "so and so predicted such and such case numbers and deaths". It's an attempt to bring a horrible football pundit mindset, a horrible tabloid style "gotcha" mindset to debate. Real lowest common denominator stuff.

The question is not who predicted an accurate number of deaths for a pandemic which still has quite a way to run. This is not fastest finger first on "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire". It's not the Lotto.

The question is which people in the public eye took this pandemic with the seriousness which it merited.

McConkey never sugar coated things and fair play to him for that.

The likes of Levitt, Gupta, Kulldorf, Feely etc. if their predictions were wrong, and they were wrong, many thousands of people, millions, stood to lose their lives and did lose their lives. My father was one. They misled the public. They told the public that this pandemic was not something to worry about.

Were McConkey's predictions wrong - and thankfully we have not (yet) arrived at his worst vistas - nobody suffers, we gain, because his warnings have served to modify public behaviour in a way which reduces virus spread.

But that's nothing to celebrate because the situation we did end up in, while not as bad as his worst vistas, was very bad indeed, as tragically I myself know all too well.

Just watched the first 5 mins of TV3 news for the first time in a long time...utterly hysterical, it's no wonder people have lost the ability to think clearly for themselves....fears of a 4th wave....they have had us in fear for over a year now....we have had two significant surges that put our health system under pressure.

There are plenty of people like me on this thread, complete amateurs, but we have proven ourselves to be more correct than any of the head bangers on national media predicting mass graves and freezer trucks full of bodies and deadly variants and 4th waves....

Since the beginning of Jan, I and other predicted that the surge would pass by the end of Jan and the cases would drop down significantly...that happened.

We predicted that the numbers would be stable and manageable for our health system, we were correct...

The schools reopened, as predicted on this thread, we didn't get a surge in numbers...

I was a little off in that I thought the case numbers would drop by more at the end of Jan, but in my defense, I didn't factor in the fact that at the start of Feb (after the winter surge) we would go back testing healthy people and go case hunting.

I, like most of on here, are rank amateurs....

Bit cynical

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

Because we introduced Level 5 and because people modified their behaviour.

And as soon as we lift Level 5, the virus will start spreading again.

But this would still be the case regardless of whatever heed we paid to Silentcorner and people like him.

suicide_circus

Negative consequences of longterm lockdown? No problem!

Extremely unlikely side effects of vaccines? Panic stations!

Snooker Loopy

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

In my view it's clear he didn't have the ear of government nearly enough, or at all. If he actually had the ear of government, we wouldn't have ended up in the situation we did, we would be in a much better situation than we are in.

I've never understood this fascination with "so and so predicted such and such case numbers and deaths". It's an attempt to bring a horrible football pundit mindset, a horrible tabloid style "gotcha" mindset to debate. Real lowest common denominator stuff.

The question is not who predicted an accurate number of deaths for a pandemic which still has quite a way to run. This is not fastest finger first on "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire". It's not the Lotto.

The question is which people in the public eye took this pandemic with the seriousness which it merited.

McConkey never sugar coated things and fair play to him for that.

The likes of Levitt, Gupta, Kulldorf, Feely etc. if their predictions were wrong, and they were wrong, many thousands of people, millions, stood to lose their lives and did lose their lives. My father was one. They misled the public. They told the public that this pandemic was not something to worry about.

Were McConkey's predictions wrong - and thankfully we have not (yet) arrived at his worst vistas - nobody suffers, we gain, because his warnings have served to modify public behaviour in a way which reduces virus spread.

But that's nothing to celebrate because the situation we did end up in, while not as bad as his worst vistas, was very bad indeed, as tragically I myself know all too well.

You're fishing in the wrong pond. McConkey told brazen lies, any integrity he had was obliterated after the swath of deaths he forecasted never came close to pass. Only an object of ridicule except in media circles with a fear narrative to sell.

Silentcorner

suicide_circus wrote: »

Negative consequences of longterm lockdown? No discussion!

Extremely unlikely side effects of vaccines? Panic stations!

Fixed that there for you!

_Kaiser_

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

Because we introduced Level 5 and because people modified their behaviour.

And as soon as we lift Level 5, the virus will start spreading again.

This is not difficult to understand.

The same thing was said last summer, and last November. "Cases are going down, it's nothing, let's open up!"

Big mistake.

But shure, let's make the same mistake a third time.

Just for the craic, like.

I'll keep saying it...

- Cases mean nothing. OUTCOME of cases is the important metric. Those remain overwhelmingly positive

- Hospitals were not overrun

- Much of the post-Christmas surge was from people who caught it while in hospital for unrelated matters

- The actual figures prove that Covid is not the deadly mass-killer it was originally feared to be. 98%+ are at little to no risk from it.

Snooker Loopy

Silentcorner wrote: »

I'm very tired of this nonsense...we were getting a winter surge no matter what we did.

The cases were going to increase no matter what we did....

The hospitals were under less pressure than they normally were.

I hope you are happy that we our waiting lists for cancer and heart disease and other serious ailments have doubled to record levels because too many people have succumb to the hysterical media coverage that has allowed charlatans like McConkey free rein on national airwaves....this is going to cost lives.

This is wrong. We chose to let Covid back in at a time when were close to zero in real, actual numbers.

We chose to have a massive surge by opening up for December.

The reason we have and will have problems as regards other medical conditions is because of Covid.

If you don't have Covid, you don't have those problems.

The quicker you can get rid of Covid as a problem, the sooner you can deal with those other problems.

The more Covid we have, the more our ability to even start to deal with them is delayed and decreased.

Sam McConkey has cost no lives. But Sunetra Gupta, Martin Kulldorf, Boris Johnson and Donald Trump certainly have.

Multipass

suicide_circus wrote: »

Negative consequences of longterm lockdown? No problem!

Extremely unlikely side effects of vaccines? Panic stations!

Delaying vaccines thus risking covid in the interim - not really a problem apparently.

Snooker Loopy

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I'll keep saying it...

- Cases mean nothing. OUTCOME of cases is the important metric. Those remain overwhelmingly positive

- Hospitals were not overrun

- Much of the post-Christmas surge was from people who caught it while in hospital for unrelated matters

- The actual figures prove that Covid is not the deadly mass-killer it was originally feared to be. 98%+ are at little to no risk from it.

You'll "keep saying it"...

It doesn't matter how much you repeat nonsense, it will always be nonsense.

The more cases you have, the more Covid spreads. It's a self-reinforcing circle. And the more cases, the more deaths.

My father died because he caught Covid in hospital while being treated for an unrelated matter.

That happened because cases went through the roof and Covid was everywhere.

But apparently the amount of cases doesn't matter...

Apparently the vulnerable are also irrelevant in our society now, at least if we're to believe you.

Silentcorner

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

Sam McConkey has cost no lives..

It's ok...you can call him Bishop Sam McConkey if you like!

Bit cynical

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

We chose to have a massive surge by opening up for December.

The reason we have and will have problems as regards other medical conditions is because of Covid.

Thing is, though, that we could have maintained full lockdown right through Christmas and, yes, some lives may have been saved but we still would need to maintain the current levels of restrictions now in order to prevent cases rising. In fact we would probably need heavier restrictions now as people would be more restless having had no break since autumn.

Loafing Oaf

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

- Hospitals were not overrun

Close run thing though. If we hadn't shutb everything down again at Christmas we very likely would have been...

TomSweeney

TomSweeney wrote: »

Why would the UK lockdown for the winter when by then they will be pretty much fully vaccinated ?

Because case numbers and long covid will become the new metric. It's telling that Johnson won't rule out another lockdown. Not that it would matter if he did because he was busy ruling out vaccine passports for months while the vaccine passport system was in late stage development.

And Neil Clark says he has an inside source in the Government. His predictions have been spot on.

Silentcorner

Bit cynical wrote: »

Thing is, though, that we could have maintained full lockdown right through Christmas and, yes, some lives may have been saved but we still would need to maintain the current levels of restrictions now in order to prevent cases rising. In fact we would probably need heavier restrictions now as people would be more restless having had no break since autumn.

WE'd have had to have been locked down at level 5 since the beginning of Oct until the end of March...

WE would have been better off staying at level 3, a much more aggressive use of Antigen tests, and a promotion of Vit D intake and we wouldn't have done as near as much damage to the local economy or to people's mental health.

But no...it's lock down until vaccines...and then maybe more lock downs, that is the plan.

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

Because case numbers and long covid will become the new metric. It's telling that Johnson won't rule out another lockdown. Not that it would matter if he did because he was busy ruling out vaccine passports for months while the vaccine passport system was in late stage development.

And Neil Clark says he has an inside source in the Government. His predictions have been spot on.

It is very telling.

A little unnerving to be honest.

Crediting lock down is a strange one, considering what is happening in Texas and Florida where they have abandoned most of their restrictions.

But I'd have faith in the Brits...they'd protest in mass numbers and dump Johnson as quick.

_Kaiser_

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

You'll "keep saying it"...

It doesn't matter how much you repeat nonsense, it will always be nonsense.

The more cases you have, the more Covid spreads. It's a self-reinforcing circle. And the more cases, the more deaths.

My father died because he caught Covid in hospital while being treated for an unrelated matter.

That happened because cases went through the roof and Covid was everywhere.

But apparently the amount of cases doesn't matter...

Apparently the vulnerable are also irrelevant in our society now, at least if we're to believe you.

First off, I'm sorry for your loss. That is genuinely sad to read.

However, it doesn't change the reality of what I've posted. The overwhelming majority of people who contract Covid do thankfully fully recover, with many not even realising they had it at all.

In 13 months, less than 5000 people have died in a population of 4.9 million. That is an extremely low number when taken in perspective and skewed by situations like happened in the nursing homes in the early stages and indeed cases like your dad who caught it while in hospital.

That doesn't take away the loss you've suffered for which I have sympathy of course, but the reality is that it is not sustainable or realistic to expect everyone else to continue to put their lives, jobs and businesses and other health issues on hold while we continue to focus only on covid cases.

Again, I am sorry for your loss but unfortunately there's more to consider here.

Snooker Loopy

Deleted User wrote: »

You're fishing in the wrong pond. McConkey told brazen lies, any integrity he had was obliterated after the swath of deaths he forecasted never came close to pass. Only an object of ridicule except in media circles with a fear narrative to sell.

That's a lie.

You can't expect to be taken remotely seriously when you do that.

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

It is very telling.

A little unnerving to be honest.

Crediting lock down is a strange one, considering what is happening in Texas and Florida where they have abandoned most of their restrictions.

But I'd have faith in the Brits...they'd protest in mass numbers and dump Johnson as quick.

But not enough people will. I estimate the split there to be about 70:30. That's based on poll results. I know polls should be taken with a pinch of salt, but support for what the government is doing there has been consistently high. In Ireland I'd say it's around 90:10, or 80:20.

But, unlike in Ireland, there will be opposition in the media and within the government (The Covid Recovery Group) there.

And then there are the climate lockdowns to consider: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2021/03/03/report-world-needs-equivalent-of-pandemic-lockdown-every-two-years-to-meet-paris-carbon-emission-goals/?sh=3395b3f76dee

Lord Sumption put it best when he said that governments won't forget how easy it was to control people. Lockdowns have become normalised.

Bit cynical

Deleted User wrote: »

Because case numbers and long covid will become the new metric. It's telling that Johnson won't rule out another lockdown. Not that it would matter if he did because he was busy ruling out vaccine passports for months while the vaccine passport system was in late stage development.

I think Johnson's primary concern however is that people don't get fixated on case numbers in the immediate aftermath of lifting restrictions which might put pressure on the government to have them reinstated.

Bit cynical

More London scenes. What we can expect this time next year.

_Kaiser_

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Close run thing though. If we hadn't shutb everything down again at Christmas we very likely would have been...

Hard to know. Hospitals are always at breaking point in winter, emergency funding is provided, and things move on.

The flaw there is mismanagement of what is a huge budget and failure to provide the resources where they're most needed.

Bit cynical

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think Johnson's primary concern however is that people don't get fixated on case numbers in the immediate aftermath of lifting restrictions which might put pressure on the government to have them reinstated.

I'm not so sure. He wants the everyone in Britain to test themselves twice a week and he said a few weeks ago testing in schools would last for years (another so-called temporary measure): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0gAETIoomY

He seems to be going out of his way to find as many cases as he can.

Snooker Loopy

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

First off, I'm sorry for your loss. That is genuinely sad to read.

However, it doesn't change the reality of what I've posted. The overwhelming majority of people who contract Covid do thankfully fully recover, with many not even realising they had it at all.

In 13 months, less than 5000 people have died in a population of 4.9 million. That is an extremely low number when taken in perspective and skewed by situations like happened in the nursing homes in the early stages and indeed cases like your dad who caught it while in hospital.

That doesn't take away the loss you've suffered for which I have sympathy of course, but the reality is that it is not sustainable or realistic to expect everyone else to continue to put their lives, jobs and businesses and other health issues on hold while we continue to focus only on covid cases.

Again, I am sorry for your loss but unfortunately there's more to consider here.

You either work out a framework to effectively eliminate Covid as a threat, as some Asian countries and Australia and New Zealand have done, or you suffer the consequences.

We hope that vaccines will provide that framework for us to reopen society safely, but we are nowhere near that stage yet.

That's the reality and people are going to have to live with that, because to deny it is fantasy, and that gets us nowhere, it will put us in a much worse situation than we are already in and mess up lives and businesses more than they are already messed up.

For some reason it seems a cohort of very vocal people on social media believe you can wish away a pandemic.

You can't. Cold, hard reality will always win.

Snooker Loopy

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

You either work out a framework to effectively eliminate Covid as a threat, as some Asian countries and Australia and New Zealand has done, or you live with the consequences.

We hope that vaccines will provide that framework for us to reopen society safely, but we are nowhere near that stage yet.

That's the reality and people are going to have to live with that, because to deny it is fantasy, and that gets us nowhere, it will put us in a much worse situation than we are already in and mess up lives and businesses more than they are already messed up.

For some reason it seems a cohort of very vocal people on social media believe you can wish away a pandemic.

You can't. Cold, hard reality will always win.

Why is it safe to buy a book in Sweden, but extremely dangerous to buy one in Ireland? Why is it safe to drink a cup of tea in a café in Sweden, but extremely dangerous to drink a cup of tea in a café in Ireland?

niallo27

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

You either work out a framework to effectively eliminate Covid as a threat, as some Asian countries and Australia and New Zealand have done, or you suffer the consequences.

We hope that vaccines will provide that framework for us to reopen society safely, but we are nowhere near that stage yet.

That's the reality and people are going to have to live with that, because to deny it is fantasy, and that gets us nowhere, it will put us in a much worse situation than we are already in and mess up lives and businesses more than they are already messed up.

For some reason it seems a cohort of very vocal people on social media believe you can wish away a pandemic.

You can't. Cold, hard reality will always win.

How could it could mess up businesses anymore, some are closed over a year, how much worse can it get. What happens when the money runs out.

PTH2009

Would you go on a staycation with no pubs open only the one in the hotel but under heavy restrictions ?

Hellrazer

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

That's a lie.

You can't expect to be taken remotely seriously when you do that.

He predicted 100k deaths and 4 million cases with a death rate of 2-3%

We`ve now had 4785 deaths - restrictions didn't save 95,000 people no matter what the lockdown brigade think.

So he was either

1. Completely wrong in which case his credentials need to be questioned and should not have received any more airtime.

2. Lied out right because at the time the death rate was estimated to be 0.3% - 0.4% and he was scaremongering - Im assuming someone like McConkey followed the WHO and their estimates.

Hellrazer

PTH2009 wrote: »

Would you go on a staycation with no pubs open only the one in the hotel but under heavy restrictions ?

Definitely not but Im getting out of here in the summer one way or another.

_Kaiser_

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

You either work out a framework to effectively eliminate Covid as a threat, as some Asian countries and Australia and New Zealand have done, or you suffer the consequences.

We hope that vaccines will provide that framework for us to reopen society safely, but we are nowhere near that stage yet.

That's the reality and people are going to have to live with that, because to deny it is fantasy, and that gets us nowhere, it will put us in a much worse situation than we are already in and mess up lives and businesses more than they are already messed up.

For some reason it seems a cohort of very vocal people on social media believe you can wish away a pandemic.

You can't. Cold, hard reality will always win.

No-one is denying Covid exists, or that it is dangerous and unfortunately deadly to some people, or that people shouldn't take care of themselves and their loved ones.

However the level of risk is a fraction of what was feared in March last year when we had very little data and reports and images of deaths from China and Italy. Since then we have had a year of experience with the virus and identified who is at most risk, and who isn't.

As I said, the numbers show the reality. For 98%+ of the 4.9 million people in this country, Covid is not a significant risk. That doesn't take away from the need for those who ARE at risk to protect themselves at all.

However, we are not just talking about a situation where Covid exists in isolation. There are other medical risks to consider, mental health, macro-economic and individual financial issues, employment and industry, the rising debt levels, and all the other things that the State has put on hold for the last year with increasingly worrying results.

We cannot continue to put all these other matters and issues off to protect what is a very small number of people. That's not how a country works.