Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

showpony1

showpony1 wrote: »

Now that the 5km is gone there will be social media "outrage" once the first nice day hits and people are on the streets in town drinking. Leo etc will see this on twitter and react by increasing restrictions and banning takeaway pints again.

Most people are gone past adhering to restrictions.Numbers of deaths/cases are dropping. Same with ICU/Hospital admissions. Over a year in to this pandemic people are getting sick of it. Evenings are getting longer.Weather is getting better you are going to see a lot more people out and about which is great. You just have to look across the pond and see how the english are getting on with some sort of normality. We need to get back to some sort of normality. Open the smaller shops/hairdresser/barbers etc

RGS

showpony1 wrote: »

Now that the 5km is gone there will be social media "outrage" once the first nice day hits and people are on the streets in town drinking. Leo etc will see this on twitter and react by increasing restrictions and banning takeaway pints again.

Cant ban take away pints, government can only ask pubs to stop. Most pubs agreed to refrain from selling take away pints in Jan.
I believe a number of pubs have re commenced selling them recently.

The gardai can only try and enforce the 100 metre rule, which is probably impossible to enforce.

AlekSmart

Faugheen wrote: »

So someone who makes a choice to wear a mask while eating a meal is 'mentally damaged' now?

That's quite a deranged way of thinking. Going beyond curtain-twitching there.

Sometime back there was an equally vehement,but opposite view taken, of a Woman pictured on a Bus with a hole pierced in it for her cigarette....deranged perhaos ?

Hard not to see some form of impaired faculties in this clip,when one considers it is in an outdoor environment.

Anybody viewing it and NOT seeing the absurdity of the situation,might perhaps view it again,and again.....?

paddyisreal

gozunda wrote: »

Well yes they are. But again at the point of reference under discussion was January 2021 - and vaccination rollout had really only recently commenced. I hadn't realised that we had moved on to talking on about vaccination outcomes looking forward. But again please feel free to do so. And btw I've made no declaration on keeping us "shut" one way or the other.



Again those figures do show not just that day but how in January and beyond exactly the types of pressures were being exerted on our healthcare resources. That they were not overrun is mainly because of the significant amount of resources which had been put in place and earlier contingency planning such as for increasing surge capacity.

You can argue all you like and claim in didn't happen. But you'd be wrong.



Nope. Incorrect. And nothing 'manipulated'. I already highlighted that the deathrate is not the single biggest issue in this pandemic. You must have missed that.

usually when someone mentions going forward it means the future but obviously in your case it is from a defined date in January anyway just to clarify if we have 1000 of cases a day every day with small icu admissions and hospital admission what level of restrictions should we have?

So basically in the last 365 days we have gotten to within 10 percent of icu capacity for a period of 10 days at the most. So our hospitals were never at full icu capicity and no where near being over ran for about 98 percent of time in the last year. Great justification to stop outdoor sports, golf, buying a pair of socks as that would of caused icu being overran 😂😂

Your initial statement was 2.9 million mass killer shock horror and 130 million cases shock horror. And yes I did see you point out that death rate isn't the biggest factor that however was after another poster highlighted how 2.9 million out of the billions in earth ain't a big deal.

Again, if we have 1000 cases a day for a month with no icu admissions or deaths. What will your position on restrictions be because I get the distinct impression you just defend whatever this government have done and are going to do. So for future reference could you clarify what your position would be on restrictions in this scenario?

Sharpyshoot

Deleted User wrote: »

Most people are gone past adhering to restrictions.Numbers of deaths/cases are dropping. Same with ICU/Hospital admissions. Over a year in to this pandemic people are getting sick of it. Evenings are getting longer.Weather is getting better you are going to see a lot more people out and about which is great. You just have to look across the pond and see how the english are getting on with some sort of normality. We need to get back to some sort of normality. Open the smaller shops/hairdresser/barbers etc

Nphet are very concerned about the spread of the virus.

Penfailed

ypres5 wrote: »

NPHET won't touch it with a 10 foot bargepole considering the overreaction they had towards the AZ vaccine. We'll be holding out for a 100% effective vaccine that has no side effects or risks whatsoever with our current trajectory

That was NIAC, not NPHET.

AlekSmart

Silentcorner wrote: »

That is interesting, like it was predicted on this thread by many of us amateurs, we are not seeing much excess death...thankfully.

I'd love to find that report on hospital bed occupancy rate over the year...I'm willing to bet it is well lower than most years....

Over 400,000 people who were waiting on appointments, many of them vital...have been thrown under a bus!

Of more interest to me is that 300,000 growth in population ove the years 2015-2020.

That is significant in itself,notwithstanding the odd "pandemic" that may happen along ?

AlekSmart

Seweryn wrote: »

Yeah, about 400k people failed to have scans for breast cancer, cervical check, bowel check and Dibetic Retina in 2020 - a drop of 55% in annual testing caused by the Cov. health policy.

There are now 1.2 million people (i.e. every fourth person) on various hospital waiting lists, from over 800,000 public patients to those waiting for scans from the National Screening Service. And this is happening because of...

....an abundance of mathematical caution ?

Snooker Loopy

RGS wrote: »

Does your MHQ from all countries apply to people crossing the border from NI to ROI?
If yes how do you propose to implement it?

It's taboo to say this because of politics but in the absence of an all-island strategy because of DUP intransigence, personally I would have shut the border as much as was possible, with exemptions only for people who have to cross it for work purposes.

Even if that kind of thing wasn't to be applied as regards mandatory hotel quarantine now, and it won't be, mandatory hotel quarantine in the Republic with a leaky border is still much better than no mandatory hotel quarantine.

England has its own version of mandatory hotel quarantine and that is somewhat of a help to us, as are NI's restrictions on travel and the UK's vaccine roll out.

Even if something is not perfect - and nothing will be - if it is better than the alternative and will help to get cases down, it is worth pursuing.

The only thing that would have been worse than what we have had since last summer is if the ideology of the anti-lockdowners had prevailed.

AlekSmart

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

Broadly, yes, but last summer was the time it would have been most effective to implement, if we were ever going to do it.

Getting case figures down to zero or near it would be much, much tougher now.

With the vaccine cavalry maybe three or four months over the horizon, I think continuing on our current path is probably the best option. I support the elements of Zero Covid such as mandatory hotel quarantine that have been introduced but it needs to be for every country.

The Zero Covid boat as a whole has probably sailed however because the vaccines will likely overtake it. I hope they do at any rate because if they don't we have a big problem.

Re-opening society four or five months down the line will be fraught with with difficulty however and the threat of this thing will likely hang over us for a long time afterwards because variants are and will remain a threat. Anybody who dismisses variants as a threat is egging us on to fail.

Have you given any consideration (Personally) to what course you will adopt if "The Vaccines" prove NOT to be as efficacious as their promoters had suggested ?

Snooker Loopy

Deleted User wrote: »

Most people are gone past adhering to restrictions.Numbers of deaths/cases are dropping. Same with ICU/Hospital admissions. Over a year in to this pandemic people are getting sick of it. Evenings are getting longer.Weather is getting better you are going to see a lot more people out and about which is great. You just have to look across the pond and see how the english are getting on with some sort of normality. We need to get back to some sort of normality. Open the smaller shops/hairdresser/barbers etc

You contradicted your first sentence with your second sentence.

Cases are continuing to drop because most people are still adhering to restrictions.

niallo27

The problem is for a lot of is that the vaccine rollout seems to be making no difference to easing of restrictions, the easing of restrictions is nearly the exact same as last year despite having no vaccine last year. It's probably worse, at least we had a plan last year.

Snooker Loopy

AlekSmart wrote: »

Have you given any consideration (Personally) to what course you will adopt if "The Vaccines" prove NOT to be as efficacious as their promoters had suggested ?

I won't be adopting any course, because I don't make government policy.

Snooker Loopy

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

You contradicted your first sentence with your second sentence.

Cases are continuing to drop because most people are still adhering to restrictions.

Do you really think people adhering to restrictions? You should take a spin to Howth or Clontarf at the weekends or St Annes Park. Loads of groups families/friends out having picnics/getting take away pints etc. Great too see

niallo27

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

You contradicted your first sentence with your second sentence.

Cases are continuing to drop because most people are still adhering to restrictions.

Unless your living under a rock, its pretty clear most people are not adhering to restrictions to the same level as January. All of our group are back drinking together, we have had enough of the black plague.

AlekSmart

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

I won't be adopting any course, because I don't make government policy.

Thats why I added personally in parantheses.

I mean you personally,in terms of your daily life and your immediate family.

If Vaccination fails to achieve it's target,and we are back at the beginning,what do you think YOU'll do ?

Snooker Loopy

niallo27 wrote: »

The problem is for a lot of is that the vaccine rollout seems to be making no difference to easing of restrictions, the easing of restrictions is nearly the exact same as last year despite having no vaccine last year. It's probably worse, at least we had a plan last year.

But the "plan" we had last year wasn't worth the paper it was written on.

Whereas this time there is genuine cause to believe there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

Restrictions have already been loosened somewhat.

The vaccine rollout is still early days, so anything more than light easing would be irresponsible. This has to be extremely gradual and it has to be done right, so that we don't have to do it ever again, as much as we can help it.

AlekSmart

Deleted User wrote: »

Most people are gone past adhering to restrictions.Numbers of deaths/cases are dropping. Same with ICU/Hospital admissions. Over a year in to this pandemic people are getting sick of it. Evenings are getting longer.Weather is getting better you are going to see a lot more people out and about which is great. You just have to look across the pond and see how the english are getting on with some sort of normality. We need to get back to some sort of normality. Open the smaller shops/hairdresser/barbers etc

Some interesting statitistics from a Telegraph paywalled article ....

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 23% of coronavirus deaths registered are now people who have died “with” the virus rather than “from” an infection.

This means that, while the person who died will have tested positive for Covid, that was not the primary cause of their death recorded on the death certificate.

Other data also shows an increasingly positive picture of the state of the pandemic in the UK.

Daily death figures by “date of death” reveal that Britain has had no more than 28 deaths a day since the beginning of April, even though the government-announced deaths have been as high as 60.

This is because the Government gives a daily update on deaths based on the number reported that day, which can include deaths from days or weeks previously and therefore may not reflect the true decline in deaths. On Tuesday, the Government announced that there had been 23 further deaths.

This issue of the terms "With" rather than "Of" has been causing some debate within medical and coroners office circles in the UK.

I wonder if any of our Medical Professionals will raise such elements ?

Snooker Loopy

AlekSmart wrote: »

Thats why I added personally in parantheses.

I mean you personally,in terms of your daily life and your immediate family.

If Vaccination fails to achieve it's target,and we are back at the beginning,what do you think YOU'll do ?

I would follow any restrictions that would be imposed like I have done since last March. And I would make no apology for doing so. I take the health and well being of other people seriously.

AlekSmart

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

I would follow any restrictions that would be imposed like I have done since last March. And I would make no apology for doing so. I take the health and well being of other people seriously.

Just for clarity,you will unquestioningly follow ANY restrictions IMPOSED upon you in such a situation ?

The bolded words are important and I wish to be very clear as to your stated intent to avoid any unintended misrepresentation,ok ?

paddyisreal

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

I would follow any restrictions that would be imposed like I have done since last March. And I would make no apology for doing so. I take the health and well being of other people seriously.

And the rest of us going around being covid serial killers.

Snooker Loopy

AlekSmart wrote: »

Just for clarity,you will unquestioningly follow ANY restrictions IMPOSED upon you in such a situation.

The bolded words are important and I wish to be very clear as to your stated intent to avoid any unintended misrepresentation,ok ?

Restrictions that have been imposed upon us have been done so for the best of reasons, to protect people from a public health disaster.

They are not perfect, they are not without their considerable downsides, far from it, but they are not some sinister conspiracy or budding dictatorship, as you presumably think.

There is not a person in the Dáil, there is scarcely a person in the world, who would not go back to 2019 normality right now, if they hypothetically had the choice.

But we don't have that choice. There's this pesky pandemic, you see.

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

True. I have updated the 2020 comparison with previous years average.

Even by adding 1,000 deaths to 2020 as in my table (for yet unclaimed deaths - just "in case"), the numbers are still not what they claim to be and no excess deaths to be seen in 2020.

I will leave it there...

Those figures show that not only did we do a great job in that we had no excess deaths due to Covid, we reduced deaths overall. Looks like lockdown was a major success in saving lives.


TBH, I would have more faith in your calculations if you had not claimed the same for Sweden on another thread



Sweden had 88,766 deaths in 2019. In 2020, 97,941 deaths. An increase of 9,175 (+10.37%)

Their 2015 -2019 five year average is 90,962 deaths. Their 2020 deaths of 97,941 were 6,979 (+7.7%) greater the prior 5 year average.
Worth noting as well that while the 2020 deaths were for the full 12 month period, Sweden like the rest of Europe, didn`t have their first Covid death until March.

Snooker Loopy

paddyisreal wrote: »

And the rest of us going around being covid serial killers.

Well if people consciously decide to flout the restrictions, they shouldn't complain when others say that the flouters are not interested in this pandemic ending and they they don't particularly care about the health and well being of others.

Personal responsibility.

AlekSmart

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

Restrictions that have been imposed upon us have been done so for the best of reasons, to protect people from a public health disaster.

They are not perfect, they are not without their considerable downsides, far from it, but they are not some sinister conspiracy or budding dictatorship, as you presumably think.

There is not a person in the Dáil, there is scarcely a person in the world, who would not go back to 2019 normality right now, if they hypothetically had the choice.

But we don't have that choice. There's this pesky pandemic, you see.

Whilst I understand all of your points,but they broaden the nature of the concise response I sought.

What I might "think",has no bearing on my curiousity as to what,if any limits you may have on Conformity.

paddyisreal

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

Well if people consciously decide to flout the restrictions, they shouldn't complain when others say that the flouters are not interested in this pandemic ending and they they don't particularly care about the health and well being of others.

Personal responsibility.

Go way with your righteous bull****. Move to China ffs and see how living under a totalitarian regime works out for you. No flouters over there.

PintOfView

charlie14 wrote: »

Those figures show that not only did we do a great job in that we had no excess deaths due to Covid, we reduced deaths overall. Looks like lockdown was a major success in saving lives.


TBH, I would have more faith in your calculations if you had not claimed the same for Sweden on another thread



Sweden had 88,766 deaths in 2019. In 2020, 97,941 deaths. An increase of 9,175 (+10.37%)

Their 2015 -2019 five year average is 90,962 deaths. Their 2020 deaths of 97,941 were 6,979 (+7.7%) greater the prior 5 year average.
Worth noting as well that while the 2020 deaths were for the full 12 month period, Sweden like the rest of Europe, didn`t have their first Covid death until March.

For another comparison, see the graph of weekly deaths in the US from all causes for the last 4 years
Half way down this page -> https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

It's very clear to see they had significant excess deaths every week since April 2020 (400,000 for 2020).
Why didn't we have the same experience?
Can the people who say our lockdown was unnecessary say this wouldn't have happened to us?

Billy Ocean

https://twitter.com/RisteardsRep/status/1382031381488893955?s=19

PintOfView

Seweryn wrote: »

True. I have updated the 2020 comparison with previous years average.

Even by adding 1,000 deaths to 2020 as in my table (for yet unclaimed deaths - just "in case"), the numbers are still not what they claim to be and no excess deaths to be seen in 2020.

I will leave it there...

That's a good table (given accurate numbers, etc)

What I see is the following
- April 2020 has 40% more deaths than April 2019 (and 35% more than the highest April in prev 5 years)
- The rest of the year is at or below previous years' averages.

One valid interpretation of this is that the lockdowns worked very well,
and possibly prevented the spike last April from continuing, or reappearing in the autumn (like at Christmas)

Of course, if these figures had occurred without a lockdown it would have proved that the virus was harmless.

What do you make of the numbers?

ypres5

Billy Ocean wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RisteardsRep/status/1382031381488893955?s=19

Don't let snooker see the parody of mcconkey, he's a real straight shooter according to him, his death toll estimate was only off by a few hundred thousand. And he's still humoured by the press to this day. What a laugh