Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Graham

Tenzor07 wrote: »

The rules say you can go to a local Supermarket and rub shoulders with 100 other shoppers and the staff

It's almost like food is essential and golf isn't.

Go figure

Tenzor07

Graham wrote: »

It's almost like food is essential and golf isn't.

Go figure

Virus doesn't care what's essential or not, it does care that it can be spread indoors with 100's of others in a Supermarket by close proximity to people.... It can't be spread out in a field with a brisk wind around .... 54 weeks on it's time for science to take over and allow people to take part in low risk activities...

Silentcorner

Graham wrote: »

There has.

It's no surprise the restrictions dragged on as long as they did.

Good jesus...a few hundred cases in a population of 5 million and you expect us to remaining hiding under our beds...the surge passed by the end of Jan...we should be in level 3 since then, at least.

gozunda

Stormyteacup wrote: »

It’s news because it’s recently published content of evolving research. The number of Covid mutations declining over time is slightly different to the limit on the virus to mutate to a deadlier or more transmissible variant.

Lots of references about speculation of lethality of British variant,

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN2B213E

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/02/13/virus-variant-first-detected-uk-has-been-deadlier-study-confirms/%3foutputType=amp

Plenty more to be found.

And yes, I did read the article in it’s entirely. I’m not sure what you think I’m trying to paint it into? The information on convergence of variants was enlightening.

The caveat in the conclusion of the article is saying the best way to prevent any mutation is to halt transmission, and drawing attention to historic pandemics to understand complacency is to be avoided.

None of which I dispute. Stop infections and a virus doesn’t spread. What I have an issue with is trying to prevent transmission at any cost and using the risk of any possible dangerous mutation of this or any existing virus, or indeed any new virus, which is a risk that will always exist, to heighten current fear.

The news of similar research was being highlighted in December.

Yes there was research /speculation into 'lethality". However what is now known is that the UK variant is up to 70% more transmissible NOT more lethal as you said was being claimed

Stormyteacup wrote:

Have a feeling this bit of science will be left of the shelf for a while as more time is needed for observation - unlike the science of UK variant being 70% more lethal than its predecessor, that science needed to be rolled out ASAP.

Stormyteacup wrote:

I’m not sure what you think I’m trying to paint it into?

This what was being "painted"

Stormyteacup wrote:

Maybe we need not be fearing ‘variants’ from certain locations coming in on the plane much longer, and move swiftly on to the next scapegoat to distract from all the bumbling.

As detailed what the article does say is

Because many newly discovered variants appear to be resampling the mutations found in other established variants, we can speculate that the virus is beginning to run out of new, major adaptations. But this doesn’t mean that that the forces of evolution will stop as we begin to approach herd immunity and loosen restrictions. History tells us that viruses can evolve rapidly to evade barriers to transmission, especially when infections remain numerous. We must remember that the more infections there are, the more chance mutations will occur, and those that best help the virus to survive will proliferate. This is why stopping new infections is key. These viral adaptations are already rewriting our biology textbooks on convergent evolution; let’s strive to limit new material.

So no being aware of such variants and helping minimising that risk is not in anyway a ...

"scapegoat to distract from all the bumbling"

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

Good jesus...a few hundred cases in a population of 5 million and you expect us to remaining hiding under our beds...the surge passed by the end of Jan...we should be in level 3 since then, at least.

Because Poland has proven that its only a seasonal virus?

gozunda

PTH2009 wrote: »

Another Vaccine gone with the one shot J&J suspended

Who shot J&J :pac:

Sorry couldn’t resist. I'll get my coat ...

PTH2009

PTH2009 wrote: »

Another Vaccine gone with the one shot J&J suspended

Its not gone

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-lockdown-is-main-reason-for-drop-in-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-not-vaccinations-says-boris-johnson-12274266

Lockdowns not vaccines main reason for drop in cases and deaths according to Borris.

He sees further cases and hospitalizations as the country opens more.

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

Because Poland has proven that its only a seasonal virus?

I'm not going round and round again with this...we are not Poland, France or any other country.

We have a different climate, different health status, different population density, the only commonality is that we are humans and in Europe...we do not all share the same trajectory for seasonal viral infections....just like the US and the 50 different states.

We have 12 months of data, more than enough to make savy decisions...do we get our knickers in a twist any year where those countries have a surge in hospital numbers because of viral infections or is it just this year?

New Zealand have had a severe surge in hospital numbers this year....should we be locking down again more as a result even though covid isn't the factor driving the surge?

We are in a pandemic, but we have 12 months of data that we are now seemingly ignoring because of variants...even if, we saw a surge, the likelyhood is that it would be much milder, the time of year, the vaccinations, the current immunity levels in the community....and that is IF it were to surge again...we are being way to cautious and ignoring the consequences of that caution...not very smart.

Silentcorner

gansi wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-lockdown-is-main-reason-for-drop-in-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-not-vaccinations-says-boris-johnson-12274266

Lockdowns not vaccines main reason for drop in cases and deaths according to Borris.

He sees further cases and hospitalizations as the country opens more.

Ya...remember the packed beaches in Cornwall last year...supposed to drive case numbers...nothing happened.

gansi

gansi wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-lockdown-is-main-reason-for-drop-in-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-not-vaccinations-says-boris-johnson-12274266

Lockdowns not vaccines main reason for drop in cases and deaths according to Borris.

He sees further cases and hospitalizations as the country opens more.

He's sowing the seeds for a autumn / winter lockdown, as predicted by Neil Clark:

https://twitter.com/NeilClark66/status/1381943267588239360

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ya...remember the packed beaches in Cornwall last year...supposed to drive case numbers...nothing happened.

Yes remember that one actually, no cases, some doctor or scientist came out and said. We’ve heard so many different things at this stage.

Billgirlylegs

Graham wrote: »

Obviously there's some detail missing in your post there but surely it doesn't need to be 'more deadly' for more people to die from it if it spreads easier so more people get it.

More contagious and less deadly, judging by the numbers?

The way these virus(es?) mutate, they get weaker so more people/hosts/victims will survive and spread the weaker variants around.
Share and share alike you could say.

That is why numbers spiked just before Christmas, and continued into January, February 2021.
Significant detail of a new variant that our pandemic /scientific experts missed
( and continue to misinterpret or can't understand)
Makes you wonder what they are studying/ watching for the last 13 months.

Fourth wave indeed.

ypres5

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Its not gone

NPHET won't touch it with a 10 foot bargepole considering the overreaction they had towards the AZ vaccine. We'll be holding out for a 100% effective vaccine that has no side effects or risks whatsoever with our current trajectory

gozunda

Silentcorner wrote: »

No, it is not complicated, it is moronic.There has been a fairly steady and visible increase in movement of people since the beginning of Feb, including all the schools re opening, despite the constant hysterical warnings from our media outlets, guess what happened...the numbers went down, the hospital numbers went down, the death numbers went down...we had our winter surge, the curve flattened itself like the curve always does. At least half of our restrictions are, expensive, socially damaging and a complete waste of time. Ignoring the winter surge and the seasonality factor of this viral infection has been a disaster for this country, it is causing an even greater health crisis that too many people are ignoring.All because the public have been conditioned to believe that variants are the new threat...We know that outdoor spread is so miniscule it is irrelevant, we know healthy people don't spread the virus.The next surge won't be until next winter in this country...we have the data...we are ignoring it.

A pretty speech. Which unfortunately doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Please explain with regard to viral seasonality (as opposed to human behaviour such as staying indoors during winter months which makes the spread of the virus more likely) the rising rate of infections in countries like Germany?

And yes I know Germany has restrictions. Restrictions appeared to have been working until regional authorities decided to start reducing them without regard to the country as a whole.

All because we now know that science and the experience of other countries and indeed ourselves do show that a small number of new variants are a threat

We know that outdoor spread is an issue not because of any specific outdoor activity rather what happens around such activities. We also know those who are presymptomatic / asymptomatic can help keep case numbers high. Hence recent walk in testing.

Yes we have the data and yes it is being used. Whether some decide to ignore that or otherwise is a different story.

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

I'm not going round and round again with this...we are not Poland, France or any other country.

We have a different climate, different health status, different population density, the only commonality is that we are humans and in Europe...we do not all share the same trajectory for seasonal viral infections....just like the US and the 50 different states.

We have 12 months of data, more than enough to make savy decisions...do we get our knickers in a twist any year where those countries have a surge in hospital numbers because of viral infections or is it just this year?

New Zealand have had a severe surge in hospital numbers this year....should we be locking down again more as a result even though covid isn't the factor driving the surge?

We are in a pandemic, but we have 12 months of data that we are now seemingly ignoring because of variants...even if, we saw a surge, the likelyhood is that it would be much milder, the time of year, the vaccinations, the current immunity levels in the community....and that is IF it were to surge again...we are being way to cautious and ignoring the consequences of that caution...not very smart.

So seasonal viruses occur at different times within Europe, got it:rolleyes:

Christ almighty, no matter how many times it has being demonstrated in the past 12 months that surges are frequently occurring outside seasonal windows, the drum keeps on banging. Any day now Levitt will be wheeled out again to say its over

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He's sowing the seeds for a autumn / winter lockdown, as predicted by Neil Clark:

https://twitter.com/NeilClark66/status/1381943267588239360

We’d hints of a post l/down here after Xmas, well before it, but nobody really thought it would come to pass and yet it did and here we are.

RGS

Tenzor07 wrote: »

What's the risk for people who drive alone in their own car to a nearby Golf course and go out for a round of Golf?

I mean it's not a team sport, it's played out in the open... once you finish your game then back into your own car and off home.. clubhouse isn't open so no hanging around...

But its the coffee, its the petrol, and what ever you want to add to the mix.


We all saw Dr. Henry pour cold water on the outdoor study last week by mentioning changing rooms and dugouts.


Its surprising a health body are opposed to health outdoor activities like golf and tennis.


In there last letter to Donnelly they wanted to postpone the return of childrens training till some undetermined date in May and then to phase it in from U/13 and below. If you look at this issue logically kids U/13 and below need parents to drop and collect them to and from training, so more movement by parents, whereas U/16 and above would generally travel by themselves.


But as we have seen logic nor common sense is no where to be found.

gansi

gansi wrote: »

We’d hints of a post l/down here after Xmas, well before it, but nobody really thought it would come to pass and yet it did and here we are.

That's right. Here's what I think will happen in the UK: a few months of new normal freedom, i.e. masks, social distancing, two tests a week, case numbers will rise, which will be the new metric, and then back in lockdown for the winter.

Sobit1964

https://twitter.com/GrahamNeary/status/1381911688606285825

I wonder how far away we are from having the final number of deaths for 2020 - because right now it doesn't look to have been worth all the sacrifices

RGS

RGS wrote: »

But its the coffee, its the petrol, and what ever you want to add to the mix.


We all saw Dr. Henry pour cold water on the outdoor study last week by mentioning changing rooms and dugouts.


Its surprising a health body are opposed to health outdoor activities like golf and tennis.


In there last letter to Donnelly they wanted to postpone the return of childrens training till some undetermined date in May and then to phase it in from U/13 and below. If you look at this issue logically kids U/13 and below need parents to drop and collect them to and from training, so more movement by parents, whereas U/16 and above would generally travel by themselves.


But as we have seen logic nor common sense is no where to be found.

Just to add to the absence of logic: too dangerous to buy a book in Ireland, safe to buy a book in Sweden, too dangerous to meet someone in a garden in Ireland, safe to meet someone in a garden in Sweden.

francogarbanzo

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

Suicides decreased in the US in 2020 and the global picture shows a similar story.

Unfortunately this is highly unlikely to stop people with a particular agenda, which doesn't depend on facts, claiming otherwise.

https://www.vox.com/2021/4/6/22368210/suicides-covid-19-coronavirus-lockdown-2020

That's because everyone who shot themselves in the head was counted as a covid death.

dalyboy

Sobit1964 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GrahamNeary/status/1381911688606285825

I wonder how far away we are from having the final number of deaths for 2020 - because right now it doesn't look to have been worth all the sacrifices

Guarantee the government/ NPHET / pseudo scientist modellers will cite our lockdowns as the great saviour once the low death stats are totted up for 2020 (& 2021 eventually)

Conveniently ignoring Sweden of course

Snooker Loopy

Silentcorner wrote: »

Sam McConkey...the man who predicted 120,000 deaths from Covid a year ago...the problem with predictions is that we get to see how accurate/inaccurate they turn out to be....what makes a person qualified to have an opinion is someone who knows the difference between 4,500 (dies with and from covid) and 120,000.

He has been given a platform on all media outlets to predict the most outlandish worst case outcomes with impunity.

Tell me, because I have asked this question before and no one ever answers it, what public health expert, that is allowed time on national airwaves, has been even close to accurate in their predictions since this thing began over a year ago?

That's not scientific illiteracy.

Not even close to it.

It is in fact nothing to do with science at all.

McConkey has certainly been wrong in his predictions as regards numbers - again, prediction of numbers is not science, it's a guesstimate based on particular models of human behaviour - but his warnings about the pandemic have been eerily prescient and I'd be far, far more inclined towards listening to what he has to say than the "this pandemic is bull****" merchants.

Certainly if we had listened to McConkey before Christmas, we would not have had the massive surge in cases and deaths around the Christmas and New Year period which we are still trying to peg back.

However, you, who are presumably heavily endowed with qualifications and expertise in the field of epidemiology, virology, public health etc., are here to tell us that you are more qualified to do McConkey's job than he is, and that his credentials and expertise are worthless.

That's quite hilarious.

The very fact that the "it's only a flu" crowd attack people who say things they don't like as "scientifically illiterate" is a sad reflection on our society and on the type of people who know the square root of sod all about a complicated topic, but whose lack of knowledge will never stop them making massive claims with the total certainty that only the terminally unaware can possess.

I certainly wouldn't claim that people who have said things that were wrong are scientifically illiterate.

I wouldn't class, say, Michael "this pandemic will burn out in three weeks" Levitt as being scientifically illiterate, despite him being pretty much completely and utterly wrong about this pandemic at every step of the way, and despite having no credentials in relevant fields of science or medicine.

Nor Sunetra Gupta, despite her being pretty much completely and utterly wrong about this pandemic every step of the way.

Snooker Loopy

Deleted User wrote: »

A quarter of young adults in the US contemplated suicide in July / August of last year.: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/13/cdc-mental-health-pandemic-394832

You're moving the goalposts now.

For months it has been widely claimed by the "let it rip" grifters that we had an epidemic of suicide, a massive increase, on our hands.

They were wrong.

Anybody who held that view and was debating in good faith would simply admit they were wrong.

However I expect very few people who held that view will admit they were wrong, because in my experience they mostly have an agenda in which the truth is irrelevant.

francogarbanzo

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

You're moving the goalposts now.

For months it has been widely claimed by the "let it rip" grifters that we had an epidemic of suicide, a massive increase, on our hands.

They were wrong.

Anybody who held that view and was debating in good faith would simply admit they were wrong.

However I expect very few people who held that view will admit they were wrong, because in my experience they mostly have an agenda in which the truth is irrelevant.

I can take this one like a pro-lockdowner: "Jeez that's very cold of you. You'd be speaking differently if you lost anyone close to you because of suicide during this time. Very selfish indeed."

Faugheen

francogarbanzo wrote: »

I can take this one like a pro-lockdowner: "Jeez that's very cold of you. You'd be speaking differently if you lost anyone close to you because of suicide during this time. Very selfish indeed."

Who’s a pro-lockdowner?

I highly doubt there is anyone here who wants to be in lockdown, but can understand why we have been.

More hysteria from the armchair public health experts who claim the ‘prolockdowners’ are the ones being hysterical.

Snooker Loopy

francogarbanzo wrote: »

That's because everyone who shot themselves in the head was counted as a covid death.

Let me quote a reply of yours to me from earlier.

francogarbanzo wrote: »

Do you have a peer-reviewed source for that claim? Conspiracy Forum is thataway >>>

You, who believes that everybody who shot themselves in the head in the US is counted as a Covid death, is accusing me of being a "conspiracist".

You're clearly the King of self-awareness.

FintanMcluskey

Sobit1964 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GrahamNeary/status/1381911688606285825

I wonder how far away we are from having the final number of deaths for 2020 - because right now it doesn't look to have been worth all the sacrifices

It really is going to go down in history books as one to tell the grandkids.

“Sit down and grandad Fintan will tell ye all about the deadly pandemic that killed thousands in Ireland.

Firstly, it happened in 2018”

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

So seasonal viruses occur at different times within Europe, got it:rolleyes:

Christ almighty, no matter how many times it has being demonstrated in the past 12 months that surges are frequently occurring outside seasonal windows, the drum keeps on banging. Any day now Levitt will be wheeled out again to say its over

It's not surprising that you are struggling with this to be honest.

The virus spread will behave differently in Co Clare than Dublin City....do you understand why?

The virus spread will behave differently in Ireland than it will in Germany....do you understand?

The virus spread will behave differently at different times of the year, do you understand?

The virus will be with us this summer....the virus will be with us next winter....the surge will occur between Oct-March...most likely somewhere in between, it may even mutate during that period and surge twice...

What is maintaining the hysteria is what is happening in other countries, that do not matter to us.

Remember back in Feb when the media were hysterical about deadly new variants that were an immediate threat...well, most of us here were correct in seeing through that hysteria....and we were right....and none of us are experts, you don't need to be to see the patterns on how this virus is behaving...it just takes an ability to remove oneself from the hysteria.