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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    I'll keep saying it...

    - Cases mean nothing. OUTCOME of cases is the important metric. Those remain overwhelmingly positive

    - Hospitals were not overrun

    - Much of the post-Christmas surge was from people who caught it while in hospital for unrelated matters

    - The actual figures prove that Covid is not the deadly mass-killer it was originally feared to be. 98%+ are at little to no risk from it.

    Few small things there:

    It doesn't matter how often you say that - your 'facts' are incorrect.

    New Cases are one of the most important predictor for the rate of infection and hospitalisations going forward

    Hospitals though not overwhelmed have been under severe pressure

    On one day alone ( January 18 2021) over 2000 patients with the virus were receiving care in hospital, with over 400 receiving help to breathe from high-grade ventilation and respiratory supports.

    There were just 22 free ICU beds across the hospital system, with 193 people in ICU with the virus and 108 of those are ventilated. Surge capacity providing a total of ICU 350 beds

    The  post-Christmas surge was NOT from people who caught it while in hospital for unrelated matters

    On the 21st of January it was estimated that a third of patients with Covid-19 in hospitals were believed to have contracted the virus whilst in hospital .

    That is in context of a total of 100,000 new cases being recorded in January.

    The worst case scenarios given at the beginning of the Pandemic are just that. Ie a scenario where a high rate of infection plus no restrictions were mathematically modeled. They were not given as definitive outcomes.

    To date worldwide there has been approx 137 million cases of coronavirus and 2.95 million deaths.

    So whilst of those who have become infected, many did not develop a serious illness - a significant number have become seriously ill and required hospitalisation. And as you said not a mass killer with just 2.95 million dead to date ...


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 452 ✭✭Sharpyshoot


    PTH2009 wrote: »
    Will Hotels put up the fight to have their pubs fully open for the summer when/if staycations are permitted ?

    The next 6-8 weeks are critical for that to happen.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,422 ✭✭✭Snooker Loopy


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    No-one is denying Covid exists, or that it is dangerous and unfortunately deadly to some people, or that people shouldn't take care of themselves and their loved ones.

    However the level of risk is a fraction of what was feared in March last year when we had very little data and reports and images of deaths from China and Italy. Since then we have had a year of experience with the virus and identified who is at most risk, and who isn't.

    As I said, the numbers show the reality. For 98%+ of the 4.9 million people in this country, Covid is not a significant risk. That doesn't take away from the need for those who ARE at risk to protect themselves at all.

    However, we are not just talking about a situation where Covid exists in isolation. There are other medical risks to consider, mental health, macro-economic and individual financial issues, employment and industry, the rising debt levels, and all the other things that the State has put on hold for the last year with increasingly worrying results.

    We cannot continue to put all these other matters and issues off to protect what is a very small number of people. That's not how a country works.
    Your preferred choice appears to be that we should reject dealing with any of these issues, and let them fester and deteriorate.

    Because if we don't deal with Covid in a serious, responsible way, and it appears you don't want us to, this will be the outcome.

    If you don't deal with Covid, the situation as regards mental health, the economy, debt and other medical problems in society will all deteriorate.

    More Covid equals an already bad situation made much worse.

    Covid has to be dealt with before we can deal properly with all the other issues.

    Society simply cannot function with Covid spreading in a situation where the vast majority of the country are unvaccinated.

    To believe otherwise is not just a callous disregard for human life, but a laughable misunderstanding of human behaviour and group dynamics.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    gozunda wrote: »
    Few small things there:

    It doesn't matter how often you say that - your 'facts' are incorrect.

    New Cases are one of the most important predictor for the rate of infection and hospitalisations going forward

    Your facts are also incorrect. New cases indicates nothing without the additional variables of age, comorbidities, and more plugged in. Hospitalisation varies wildly based on these.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    Your preferred choice appears to be that we should reject dealing with any of these issues, and let them fester and deteriorate.

    Because if we don't deal with Covid in a serious, responsible way, and it appears you don't want us to, this will be the outcome.

    If you don't deal with Covid, the situation as regards mental health, the economy, debt and other medical problems in society will all deteriorate.

    More Covid equals an already bad situation made much worse.

    Covid has to be dealt with before we can deal properly with all the other issues.

    Society simply cannot function with Covid spreading in a situation where the vast majority of the country are unvaccinated.

    To believe otherwise is not just a callous disregard for human life, but a laughable misunderstanding of human behaviour and group dynamics.

    So you are suggesting that the leaders of the country cant walk and chew gum at the same time?


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  • Posts: 338 [Deleted User]


    I agree. As long as it's voluntary. They're the worst restriction for me.

    Look at the irony in this one, the children are part of a broad project called fresh air, they are having lessons and are wearing masks on a Spanish beach.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2021/0413/1209621-beach-school/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,536 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    Here's what you wrote in October:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114952406&postcount=2223



    That's about as wrong as it's possible to be.

    One thing I've learned during this pandemic is that no matter how wrong the "play it down" crew get things, they will always, always claim they "got it right".

    Always.

    Because their agenda is not about the truth, it's about gaslighting and trolling with a view to ramming through an agenda which pisses all over public health.

    And most of all, it's about making the thread about them, for narcissistic purposes.

    Complete amateur, indeed.

    Fair play for putting in the effort...that must have taken some time.

    I don't recall the context of that particular exchange, but I have no issue admitting I was wrong, I am an amateur after all.

    I believe I was referring to the use of the term pandemic, which I believed at the time was over as it was then endemic in the population, do we have a pandemic of the flu every year? I don't know....and like the amateur that I am, I wasn't familiar with winter surges of endemic viruses, but I am used to seeing the annual hospital crisis unfold...hardly a hanging offense for an ordinary citizen.

    You would however expect our health officials and politicians to be more informed than any of us given what they are subjecting us all to...and what our health system see's every year.

    You clearly have a very strong reason for your stance which I understand, and I don't wish to frustrate you any further, but we are all learning as we go, as this is affecting every single one of us in some way shape or form.

    I have posted a lot since Oct, and as I pointed out earlier, since Jan, like a lot of posters on here, I have been a lot more accurate...I know you agree because you have gone through all my posts.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,151 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Kivaro wrote: »
    I'm curious if many of you were aware of the change from being in your car for essential reasons to now having a "reasonable excuse" for traveling. I was wondering earlier why Gardai at checkpoints were still asking people where they were going, and according to citizensinformation there's a whole long list of "reasonable excuses" here.

    The posters over in the Gardai thread are not happy, and I wouldn't blame them. It's a bit too much after the many, many months of restrictions.

    No, that can't be right, the posters on board's assured me I was allowed go for a drive.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    gozunda wrote: »
    Few small things there:

    It doesn't matter how often you say that - your 'facts' are incorrect.

    New Cases are one of the most important predictor for the rate of infection and hospitalisations going forward

    Hospitals though not overwhelmed have been under severe pressure

    On one day alone ( January 18 2021) over 2000 patients with the virus were receiving care in hospital, with over 400 receiving help to breathe from high-grade ventilation and respiratory supports.

    There were just 22 free ICU beds across the hospital system, with 193 people in ICU with the virus and 108 of those are ventilated. Surge capacity surge providing a total of ICU 350 beds

    The  post-Christmas surge was NOT from people who caught it while in hospital for unrelated matters

    On the 21st of January it was estimated that a third of patients with Covid-19 in hospitals were believed to have contracted the virus whilst in hospital .

    That is in context of a total of 100,000 new cases being recorded in January.

    The worst case scenarios given at the beginning of the Pandemic are just that. Ie a scenario where a high rate of infection plus no restrictions were mathematically modeled. They were not given as definitive outcomes.

    To date worldwide there has been approx 137 million cases of coronavirus and 2.95 million deaths.

    So whilst of those who have become infected, many did not develop a serious illness - a significant number have become seriously ill and required hospitalisation. And as you said not a mass killer with just 2.95 million dead to date ...

    Still don't understand the people who go on about Covid-19 not being deadly or a problem, while referring to case numbers and deaths etc. that occurred while we, and the rest of the world, were essentially shut down. The whole point of these restrictions was damage control and when that's been proven to have worked to some extent, they go on about the virus or pandemic as a whole being a non event/issue.

    It's like setting a house on fire, having it submerged under water to put it out, and then claiming house fires don't burn down houses.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,285 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    gozunda wrote: »
    Few small things there:

    It doesn't matter how often you say that - your 'facts' are incorrect.

    New Cases are one of the most important predictor for the rate of infection and hospitalisations going forward

    Hospitals though not overwhelmed have been under severe pressure

    On one day alone ( January 18 2021) over 2000 patients with the virus were receiving care in hospital, with over 400 receiving help to breathe from high-grade ventilation and respiratory supports.

    There were just 22 free ICU beds across the hospital system, with 193 people in ICU with the virus and 108 of those are ventilated. Surge capacity surge providing a total of ICU 350 beds

    The  post-Christmas surge was NOT from people who caught it while in hospital for unrelated matters

    On the 21st of January it was estimated that a third of patients with Covid-19 in hospitals were believed to have contracted the virus whilst in hospital .

    That is in context of a total of 100,000 new cases being recorded in January.

    The worst case scenarios given at the beginning of the Pandemic are just that. Ie a scenario where a high rate of infection plus no restrictions were mathematically modeled. They were not given as definitive outcomes.

    To date worldwide there has been approx 137 million cases of coronavirus and 2.95 million deaths.

    So whilst of those who have become infected, many did not develop a serious illness - a significant number have become seriously ill and required hospitalisation. And as you said not a mass killer with just 2.95 million dead to date ...

    Well if we're doing worldwide numbers, 2.95 million out of what, 7-something billion people?

    No, it's not a mass killer by any stretch of imagination once some actual perspective is applied.

    Let's stick locally.. <5000 out of 4.9 million after 13 months is a tiny number.

    As I and someone else quoted from the CSO a day or two back, there were more deaths from cancer, dementia and other causes over a 3 month period last year than Covid has caused in a year.

    So no, not a mass killer... and this is a VERY GOOD THING when we consider the predictions in March 2020.

    Plus the sad but inevitable truth is, people die. From all sorts of reasons as they have during Covid (even though they haven't gotten the same attention - or indeed, potentially care - they deserve), and they will continue to die even after Covid is finally behind us.

    You can continue to explain away and justify the measures all you like, but the reality is that, post the first 2 months of this last year, the responses, coverage and hysteria has been wildly inappropriate and disproportionate and has now led to a situation where we have done a lot more damage to other parts of society, the economy and the future prospects of everyone in this country than was ever necessary and which will take a LOT longer to recover from as a nation.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    I remember loading up with food, locking gates, and the sense of impending doom back in March 2020 - back when I wore masks against health advice... I was listening to this funky tune:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zs3KaY3r5bw

    Its going away. Can we atleast all be happy about that?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,285 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Your preferred choice appears to be that we should reject dealing with any of these issues, and let them fester and deteriorate.

    Because if we don't deal with Covid in a serious, responsible way, and it appears you don't want us to, this will be the outcome.

    If you don't deal with Covid, the situation as regards mental health, the economy, debt and other medical problems in society will all deteriorate.

    More Covid equals an already bad situation made much worse.

    Covid has to be dealt with before we can deal properly with all the other issues.

    Society simply cannot function with Covid spreading in a situation where the vast majority of the country are unvaccinated.

    To believe otherwise is not just a callous disregard for human life, but a laughable misunderstanding of human behaviour and group dynamics.

    Your solution, as best as I can make out given your references to McConkey is what.. zero covid approach, total lockdown with people not allowed out except for food or essential employment or something? Close the airports, ports, and the border with NI?

    If you can't see how that would exacerbate the problems I highlighted in the post you quoted, not to mention create a load of new ones (trade, legal, economic, social) then I don't think there's much more I can say to you TBH

    Zero covid however was never, and is never, going to be a solution. We need to actually start LIVING alongside it, not hiding away from it, reporting others to radio stations or the Gardai, and treating everyone as a potential plague carrier (which Covid simply is not)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    But you didn't answer the question. Here's another one I have been trying to get an answer to: why is it mandatory to wear a mask when alone in the countryside in Spain, but not mandatory to wear a mask when walking alone in the countryside in Sweden? Is it because the countryside in Spain is different to the countryside in Sweden?

    The question isn't 'How is Sweden doing?' or 'What are the case numbers in Sweden?'

    Well first - its not a particularly well thought
    out or intelligent question.

    But to reiterate I did - You asked how is it 'safe' to be in a bookshop in Sweden and not here.

    And I pointed out that the answer is regardless of your idea of 'safe in Sweden'

    The issue is a consistent management of the rate of infection and includes restrictions on non essential shops etc or ancillary activities such as travel and service use which increase the chances of infection

    Something going by today's headlines - Sweden has failed spectacularly to do so.

    And that answer remains the same irrespective of endless imaginings for whatever country and whatever scenario you can possibly come up with.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,422 ✭✭✭Snooker Loopy


    Sobit1964 wrote: »
    So you are suggesting that the leaders of the country cant walk and chew gum at the same time?

    Nice one liner but it doesn't in any way address my points.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    Nice one liner but it doesn't in any way address my points.

    You haven't had any since you re-registered.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭the kelt


    GooglePlus wrote: »
    Still don't understand the people who go on about Covid-19 not being deadly or a problem, while referring to case numbers and deaths etc. that occurred while we, and the rest of the world, were essentially shut down. The whole point of these restrictions was damage control and when that's been proven to have worked to some extent, they go on about the virus or pandemic as a whole being a non event/issue.

    It's like setting a house on fire, having it submerged under water to put it out, and then claiming house fires don't burn down houses.

    I think it’s a bit more like having your washing machine going on fire and submerging the entire house in water to put it out and claiming “well the whole house would have went up if I didn’t do that”

    Eh ye could have just ye know extinguished the fire in the washing machine and contained it.

    “But but but it worked, the fires out, what more proof do ye need”


  • Posts: 2,129 [Deleted User]


    gozunda wrote: »
    Well first - its not a particularly well thought
    out or intelligent question.

    But to reiterate I did - You asked how is it 'safe' to be in a bookshop in Sweden and not here.

    And I pointed out that the answer is regardless of your idea of 'safe in Sweden'

    The issue is a consistent management of the rate of infection and includes restrictions on non essential shops etc or ancillary activities such as travel and service use which increase the chances of infection

    Something going by today's headlines - Sweden has failed spectacularly to do so.

    And that answer remains the same irrespective of endless imaginings for whatever country and whatever scenario you can possibly come up with.

    It's a perfectly reasonable question. The only possible reason that a mask would be mandatory when walking alone in the countryside in Spain, but not mandatory when walking alone in the countryside in Sweden is because the countryside in Spain is more dangerous than the countryside in Sweden.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Well if we're doing worldwide numbers, 2.95 million out of what, 7-something billion people?No, it's not a mass killer by any stretch of imagination once some actual perspective is applied.Let's stick locally.. <5000 out of 4.9 million after 13 months is a tiny number. As I and someone else quoted from the CSO a day or two back, there were more deaths from cancer, dementia and other causes over a 3 month period last year than Covid has caused in a year.So no, not a mass killer... and this is a VERY GOOD THING when we consider the predictions in March 2020. Plus the sad but inevitable truth is, people die. From all sorts of reasons as they have during Covid (even though they haven't gotten the same attention - or indeed, potentially care - they deserve), and they will continue to die even after Covid is finally behind us. You can continue to explain away and justify the measures all you like, but the reality is that, post the first 2 months of this last year, the responses, coverage and hysteria has been wildly inappropriate and disproportionate and has now led to a situation where we have done a lot more damage to other parts of society, the economy and the future prospects of everyone in this country than was ever necessary and which will take a LOT longer to recover from as a nation.

    I see you missed that last point made well wide of the mark.

    But not to engage in further whataboutery ...

    As said "just 2.95 million deaths". As stated Its not just about deaths. Its about enough people getting seriously ill to mean that health services can become seriously over subscribed. And despite providing serious resources and adding extra personal, medical staff, and healthcare resources - Hospitals here were still up to being pushed to cope especially where many of those who became infected were healthcare staff themselves. Vaccinations came in the nick of time for us.

    And as detailed the worst case scenarios were just that. Pretending they were "predictions" otherwise is at best facile tbh.

    The thing is we're not out of this yet. But no one has claimed there's been no impacts on the economy or society. The issue is that we still are between a rock and a hard place as best seen by countries who for one reason or another have failed to manage the pandemic in their own country.

    Let's save those histonics for the moment.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,506 ✭✭✭Seweryn


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    I'll keep saying it...

    - The actual figures prove that Covid is not the deadly mass-killer it was originally feared to be. 98%+ are at little to no risk from it.
    True. I have updated the 2020 comparison with previous years average.

    Even by adding 1,000 deaths to 2020 as in my table (for yet unclaimed deaths - just "in case"), the numbers are still not what they claim to be and no excess deaths to be seen in 2020.

    I will leave it there...


    173072300_3418835671549255_2263331906249584102_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_ohc=flcB2zibu6oAX8ywe5L&_nc_ht=scontent.fdub4-1.fna&oh=a6e22393d8700cdb24fa70de32d8c350&oe=609D3273


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,536 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    Seweryn wrote: »
    True. I have updated the 2020 comparison with previous years average.

    Even by adding 1,000 deaths to 2020 as in my table (for yet unclaimed deaths - just "in case"), the numbers are still not what they claim to be and no excess deaths to be seen in 2020.

    I will leave it there...


    173072300_3418835671549255_2263331906249584102_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_ohc=flcB2zibu6oAX8ywe5L&_nc_ht=scontent.fdub4-1.fna&oh=a6e22393d8700cdb24fa70de32d8c350&oe=609D3273

    That is interesting, like it was predicted on this thread by many of us amateurs, we are not seeing much excess death...thankfully.

    I'd love to find that report on hospital bed occupancy rate over the year...I'm willing to bet it is well lower than most years....

    Over 400,000 people who were waiting on appointments, many of them vital...have been thrown under a bus!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,422 ✭✭✭Snooker Loopy


    Sobit1964 wrote: »
    You haven't had any since you re-registered.
    I think it says it all about you that all you have in response to me is an ignorant grunt.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,506 ✭✭✭Seweryn


    That is interesting, like it was predicted on this thread by many of us amateurs, we are not seeing much excess death...thankfully.

    I'd love to find that report on hospital bed occupancy rate over the year...I'm willing to bet it is well lower than most years....

    Over 400,000 people who were waiting on appointments, many of them vital...have been thrown under a bus!

    Yeah, about 400k people failed to have scans for breast cancer, cervical check, bowel check and Dibetic Retina in 2020 - a drop of 55% in annual testing caused by the Cov. health policy.

    There are now 1.2 million people (i.e. every fourth person) on various hospital waiting lists, from over 800,000 public patients to those waiting for scans from the National Screening Service. And this is happening because of...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Sobit1964 wrote: »
    Your facts are also incorrect. New cases indicates nothing without the additional variables of age, comorbidities, and more plugged in. Hospitalisation varies wildly based on these.

    They're not you now. Its a known that increases in new cases will result in an increase in hospitalisations.

    That aside if you wish to dive into the mathematics of proportionality of age / sex / co-morbidities and likley outcome based on those criteria for all those entering the hospital system - be my guest.

    Interesting paper here on that ...

    https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/new-tool-predicts-risks-of-hospital-admission-and-death-from-covid-19/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,718 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    gozunda wrote: »
    Few small things there:

    It doesn't matter how often you say that - your 'facts' are incorrect.

    New Cases are one of the most important predictor for the rate of infection and hospitalisations going forward

    Hospitals though not overwhelmed have been under severe pressure

    On one day alone ( January 18 2021) over 2000 patients with the virus were receiving care in hospital, with over 400 receiving help to breathe from high-grade ventilation and respiratory supports.

    There were just 22 free ICU beds across the hospital system, with 193 people in ICU with the virus and 108 of those are ventilated. Surge capacity surge providing a total of ICU 350 beds

    The  post-Christmas surge was NOT from people who caught it while in hospital for unrelated matters

    On the 21st of January it was estimated that a third of patients with Covid-19 in hospitals were believed to have contracted the virus whilst in hospital .

    That is in context of a total of 100,000 new cases being recorded in January.

    The worst case scenarios given at the beginning of the Pandemic are just that. Ie a scenario where a high rate of infection plus no restrictions were mathematically modeled. They were not given as definitive outcomes.

    To date worldwide there has been approx 137 million cases of coronavirus and 2.95 million deaths.

    So whilst of those who have become infected, many did not develop a serious illness - a significant number have become seriously ill and required hospitalisation. And as you said not a mass killer with just 2.95 million dead to date ...



    New Cases are one of the most important predictor for the rate of infection and hospitalisations going forward
    - - does being vaccinated not change this as it stops serious sickness so going forward cases are not the most important indicator. Do you want to keep us shut if we have a 1000 cases a day every day but no icu admissions or deaths?

    you pick one of the worse days for icu, hospital admissions in the last year to justify your argument but admit in the previous sentence that they were not overran
    .

    The modelling been used by nphet has never been within an arses roar of been right since the start of this. If there modellers were working for paddy Power they would be out the door long ago.

    And also 137 million cases with 2.97 million deaths means that it has a survival rate of 97.9 percent so it ain't a mass killer in the scheme of things

    See anyone can manipulate figures to facilitate a fact.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,422 ✭✭✭Snooker Loopy


    the kelt wrote: »
    I think it’s a bit more like having your washing machine going on fire and submerging the entire house in water to put it out and claiming “well the whole house would have went up if I didn’t do that”

    Eh ye could have just ye know extinguished the fire in the washing machine and contained it.

    “But but but it worked, the fires out, what more proof do ye need”
    Until we reach critical mass with vaccines, which we hope will "put out the fire", the only way you can put out the fire is by lockdown, combined with aggressive suppression measures such as mandatory hotel quarantine and scaled up public health capacity to keep it down.

    We had 4 (four) cases last July 1st. We had a chance of putting the fire out then, and keeping it out, but chose not to attempt this.

    Why? Because "we want our pints and our foreign holidays".

    Big mistake.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭the kelt


    Until we reach critical mass with vaccines, which we hope will "put out the fire", the only way you can put out the fire is by lockdown, followed by aggressive suppression measures such as mandatory hotel quarantine and scaled up public health capacity to keep it down.

    We had 4 (four) cases last July 1st. We had a chance of putting the fire out then, and keeping it out, but chose not to attempt this.

    Why? Because "we want our pints and our foreign holidays".

    Big mistake.

    So zero COVID approach is what you advocate?

    https://www.wecanbezero.com/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    New Cases are one of the most important predictor for the rate of infection and hospitalisations going forward
    - - does being vaccinated not change this as it stops serious sickness so going forward cases are not the most important indicator. Do you want to keep us shut if we have a 1000 cases a day every day but no icu admissions or deaths?

    Well yes they are. But again at the point of reference under discussion was January 2021 - and vaccination rollout had really only recently commenced. I hadn't realised that we had moved on to talking on about vaccination outcomes looking forward. But again please feel free to do so. And btw I've made no declaration on keeping us "shut" one way or the other.
    you pick one of the worse days for icu, hospital admissions in the last year to justify your argument but admit in the previous sentence that they were not overran. The modelling been used by nphet has never been within an arses roar of been right since the start of this. If there modellers were working for paddy Power they would be out the door long ago.

    Again those figures do show not just that day but how in January and beyond exactly the types of pressures were being exerted on our healthcare resources. That they were not overrun is mainly because of the significant amount of resources which had been put in place and earlier contingency planning such as for increasing surge capacity.

    You can argue all you like and claim in didn't happen. But you'd be wrong.
    And also 137 million cases with 2.97 million deaths means that it has a survival rate of 97.9 percent so it ain't a mass killer in the scheme of things
    See anyone can manipulate figures to facilitate a fact.

    Nope. Incorrect. And nothing 'manipulated'. I already highlighted that the deathrate is not the single biggest issue in this pandemic. You must have missed that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,422 ✭✭✭Snooker Loopy


    the kelt wrote: »
    So zero COVID approach is what you advocate?

    https://www.wecanbezero.com/
    Broadly, yes, but last summer was the time it would have been most effective to implement, if we were ever going to do it.

    Getting case figures down to zero or near it would be much, much tougher now.

    With the vaccine cavalry maybe three or four months over the horizon, I think continuing on our current path is probably the best option. I support the elements of Zero Covid such as mandatory hotel quarantine that have been introduced but it needs to be for every country.

    The Zero Covid boat as a whole has probably sailed however because the vaccines will likely overtake it. I hope they do at any rate because if they don't we have a big problem.

    Re-opening society four or five months down the line will be fraught with with difficulty however and the threat of this thing will likely hang over us for a long time afterwards because variants are and will remain a threat. Anybody who dismisses variants as a threat is egging us on to fail.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭showpony1


    Now that the 5km is gone there will be social media "outrage" once the first nice day hits and people are on the streets in town drinking. Leo etc will see this on twitter and react by increasing restrictions and banning takeaway pints again.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 787 ✭✭✭RGS


    Broadly, yes, but last summer was the time it would have been most effective to implement, if we were ever going to do it.

    Getting case figures down to zero or near it would be much, much tougher now.

    With the vaccine cavalry maybe three or four months over the horizon, I think continuing on our current path is probably the best option. I support the elements of Zero Covid such as mandatory hotel quarantine that have been introduced but it needs to be for every country.

    The Zero Covid boat as a whole has probably sailed however because the vaccines will likely overtake it. I hope they do at any rate because if they don't we have a big problem.

    Re-opening society four or five months down the line will be fraught with with difficulty however and the threat of this thing will likely hang over us for a long time afterwards because variants are and will remain a threat. Anybody who dismisses variants as a threat is egging us on to fail.

    Does your MHQ from all countries apply to people crossing the border from NI to ROI?
    If yes how do you propose to implement it?


This discussion has been closed.
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