Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

PTH2009

Any rise in numbers is scary esp with Dr Tony back at the helm and Leo basically telling us 'they have to get NPHETs approval to reopen further

minitrue

In terms of countries which report test and case numbers French Polynesia (71%) and Algeria (52%) are the only countries in the world with a worse positivity rate (cases per test done) than Brazil (49%) with Mexico next at 36%. Those figures are based on the full course of this not the current rate (no idea if or where to find those).

For some comparisons you have the USA (7.5%), India (5.76%) and Ireland (5.66%) or a combined Europe rate of 6.05% ranging from Moldova (26.14%) to Denmark (0.75%) (ignoring <1m countries). The reported cases/million is still 14% higher in Brazil then Europe but that testing rate means Brazil's true figure is certainly dramatically higher.

For another comparison up at the top of the list you have China and Laos around 0.05%, Hong Kong and Vietnam around 0.1% and New Zealand, Bhutan and Greenland from 0.13%-0.15%. I've already covered the bottom of the list.

Brazil has so outlandishly useless a testing regime that there really is no point using any of their figures to draw comparisons and the only interesting thing might be widespread independent random testing to try and estimate what % of their population has picked up natural immunity already as it horribly looks like an experiment to see what is required for useful herd immunity.

FTR though even with their useless figures they still claim a deaths/million rate 34% higher than Europe.

Every countries figures need caveats and straight comparisons like this aren't extremely useful but when you are comparing about 50% to about 6% those caveats don't make much of a difference.

Lucas Hood

I don't like how they show 7 day average on geohive with only 1 decimal place.

Yesterday I had 7 day average at 2.74% and it was rounded to 2.7%

Today it's 2.77% and rounded up to 2.8%

Give us our 2 decimal places.

caveat emptor

Dodgey WHO paper on how covid is not airborne. Failed peer review.
This denial has caused a lot of confusion and lives.

https://twitter.com/NafeezAhmed/status/1384851529304260613?s=20

Nafeez Ahead reports on allegations of cronyism over the funding of a research paper which tries to dismiss evidence that COVID-19 is an airborne infection

A scientist with links to the co-founders of the ‘herd immunity’ Great Barrington Declaration has quietly secured funding from the World Health Organization (WHO) to produce a bizarre paper denying evidence that COVID-19 is airborne, Byline Times can exclusively reveal. Several members of the WHO committee which commissioned the paper appear to have benefited from the contract by showing up as co-authors of the very paper they contracted out without declaring the potential conflict of interest.

The key author of the new paper, which has already failed peer review, is Carl Heneghan, Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University.

kleiner feigling

Deleted User wrote: »

The disease doesn't care about personal preference though. The disease only cares about transmitting through populations to pass the disease onto others, leading to an increased risk of dangerous variants. If the disease were mild for everyone, perhaps you would have a point, but the disease doesn't care about things like that.

Which is why we should protect the most vulnerable.
As I said, I haven't been mixing with anyone which is an effective to avoid catching the virus.
Luckily the disease is mild for most people.
Worldwide death figures are about 2% of known cases (realistically the deaths are likely much less given the unknown numbers who've had the virus and never realized).

And per the variants, they may be less dangerous or they may be more dangerous. All we know is that they will de different, and any differences may impact vaccine efficacy for better or worse.

Ficheall

Batattackrat wrote: »

Tested positive with no symptoms whatsoever a few months ago. I won't be taking the vacine.

My body my choice.

Did you infect anyone else, as a matter of interest?

arccosh

Ficheall wrote: »

Did you infect anyone else, as a matter of interest?

I heard he took out 2 nursing homes

TheDoctor

arccosh wrote: »

I heard he took out 2 nursing homes

Mother of God

Timmy O Toole

Another surge , god help us all

Downlinz

Like clockwork the swabs rise just over a week after schools re-open.

Corholio

Downlinz wrote: »

Like clockwork the swabs rise just over a week after schools re-open.

Or there were a good few more tests?

Timmy O Toole

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Another surge , god help us all

There's no evidence of another "surge". Seems a tad dramatic!

A minor increase in cases does not constitute a "surge".

prunudo

Downlinz wrote: »

Like clockwork the swabs rise just over a week after schools re-open.

Amongst other things, construction was also back. Its inevitable that cases will rise when people start mixing again. Hospital numbers need to be the new metric of what the current state of play is. Its also important that nphet don't overreact when cases rise or fluctuate.

KrustyUCC

"Mr Martin replied that there was no change in the 80pc target and no change in the plan to administer a quarter of a million doses from next week."

I couldn't see us vaccinating 250,000 next week

Would like to be wrong though

Unless we approve J&J for under 60s very hard to see the June target being hit either

Timmy O Toole

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There's no evidence of another "surge". Seems a tad dramatic!

A minor increase in cases does not constitute a "surge".

An 80% increase in swabs is most definitely a surge!

Corholio

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

An 80% increase in swabs is most definitely a surge!

99 more positive swabs from 2186 more tests from this day last week.

mloc123

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

An 80% increase in swabs is most definitely a surge!

not if they don't translate into positive cases...

Timmy O Toole

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

An 80% increase in swabs is most definitely a surge!

But most of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.

We cannot link cases to hospitalizations/deaths in the same way as we did before; the architecture of the problem is different.

blowitupref

Compared to last Wednesday, 89 extra positive swabs from 2,186 more tests carried out.

seamus

KrustyUCC wrote: »

"Mr Martin replied that there was no change in the 80pc target and no change in the plan to administer a quarter of a million doses from next week."

I couldn't see us vaccinating 250,000 next week

If some of the anecdotal reports from people checking in at MVCs are correct, then at 140,000/week we're still only operating at 25-30% capacity, and there's plenty of capacity within the MVCs to hit 250k and beyond. The limiting factor after supply at this stage is probably just logistics because we can only use AZ in some contexts and Pfizer in others.

Timmy O Toole

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

An 80% increase in swabs is most definitely a surge!

KrustyUCC

seamus wrote: »

If some of the anecdotal reports from people checking in at MVCs are correct, then at 140,000/week we're still only operating at 25-30% capacity, and there's plenty of capacity within the MVCs to hit 250k and beyond. The limiting factor after supply at this stage is probably just logistics because we can only use AZ in some contexts and Pfizer in others.

I'll believe it when I see it

HSE must have told Martin the target otherwise he'd have avoided saying so

eigrod

A slight increase in numbers this week was predicted given the slight easing of restrictions on 12th April. Today would be pretty much bang on for seeing that increase.

Pandiculation

Just speaking anecdotally, based on what I'm hearing from friends of mine and family, a lot of people are developing hay fever at the moment due to blossoming plants and that's causing coughs and people seeking COVID-19 tests.

So, I don't know if that's feeding into spikes in numbers of swabs, but it would seem possible.

Most people are taking no chances if they develop a cough, whereas normally they'd ignore it.

lawred2

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Another surge , god help us all

:rolleyes:

Corholio

Pandiculation wrote: »

Just speaking anecdotally, based on what I'm hearing from friends of mine and family, a lot of people are developing hay fever at the moment due to blossoming plants and that's causing coughs and people seeing COVID-19 tests.

So, I don't know if that's feeding into spikes in numbers of swabs, but it would seem possible.

Most people are taking no chances if they develop a cough, whereas normally they'd ignore it.

Interesting point. Never would have thought of that but makes sense. We are so aware of coughing etc the past year that I could imagine more people getting tested if developing this.

Sanjuro

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Another surge , god help us all

Settle down there, Helen Lovejoy.

timsey tiger

Deleted User wrote: »

Very clever, how did that surge appear on Wednesday 16th December last year?

peterc1991

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

An 80% increase in swabs is most definitely a surge!

Im not going to even check exactly but its like 550 today and was like 450 yesterday. How on earth is that 80 per cent.

And please do not say from sunday because .. just dont

hynesie08

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1384911343531212805?s=20

Not terrible