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Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 222 ✭✭bosco12345


    audman13 wrote: »
    What's the chances of Galway seeing some snow?

    East galway maybe but it's not likely with an easterly. Wouldnt rule it out though


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,688 ✭✭✭celt262


    Is this looking like a country wide snow event and when will we have the first falls if predictions come through?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 49 Chalkitdown147


    Welcome!

    Really have to wait until closer the time for those kind of details. We can't be certain at all what the wind direction will be to that scale yet.

    I should of said long time frog follower also.....cheers!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,086 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    celt262 wrote: »
    Is this looking like a country wide snow event and when will we have the first falls if predictions come through?

    No, Leinster and Ulster, possibly south Munster. Timing depends on a few factors, but Monday or Tuesday seems likely.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,201 ✭✭✭ongarboy


    ffarrell7 wrote: »
    I love Kerry but the problem is it hardly ever snow there except for high ground.... ..

    Just curious...as a fellow D15er...why do you frequently add a footnote about Kerry's lack of snow to your many posts about snow in Dublin 15? What has one location with a well known milder climate 250+ kms away got to do with the other?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,144 ✭✭✭flanzer


    I hope the people in boards.ie put extra memory in their servers, this place is about to light up


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,310 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Mod Note: Any posts to do with bread jokes are best kept back to 2018. We have moved on from this. Most of us are fed up reading the same bread stories every time we have a snow event. Covid related talk is also off topic, can we just keep this about the weather. There are massive threads elsewhere on boards about covid topics.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,139 ✭✭✭compsys


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Mod Note: Any posts to do with bread jokes are best kept back to 2018. We have moved on from this. Most of us are fed up reading the same bread stories every time we have a snow event. Covid related talk is also off topic, can we just keep this about the weather. There are massive threads elsewhere on boards about covid topics.

    Amen to that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,830 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I would happily take frosty mornings and sub zero temps out West. A few dry, blue sky days would be lovely too.

    I remember Feb 2020 being awful wet but then we got 3 superb months of weather in a row.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 144 ✭✭KingJeremy


    I would happily take frosty mornings and sub zero temps out West. A few dry, blue sky days would be lovely too.

    I remember Feb 2020 being awful wet but then we got 3 superb months of weather in a row.

    Absolutely! While I’m a little green reading about the possible snowmageddon the East are looking forward to next week, I will welcome dry blue sky days with open arms. The ground is sodden here. A walk through the forest is not much fun when you’re slogging through trails of muck


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 485 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    There is a slight moderation of the cold from wednesday on the ensemble mean for the GFS 12z compared to the 6z. We see it retreat northwards more quickly. However, there are some very cold members which sustain the cold still. Very interesting. Obviously volatile set up. The amount of energy spilling into the north atlantic state-side is significant.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    The gem especially is showing monster streamers into East England. Could they make it all the way across England and pep up again over the Irish sea or would they tend to have a negative effect on the ability of the Irish Sea to make its own?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,410 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Can someone give a synopsis as to possible and most likely outcome for the south in all this? Seems to be a lot of talk about the east getting hefty showers, what about elsewhere?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,099 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    leahyl wrote: »
    Can someone give a synopsis as to possible and most likely outcome for the south in all this? Seems to be a lot of talk about the east getting hefty showers, what about elsewhere?

    All depends on wind direction. Cork could do very well out of a straight easterly or a south easterly even


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,410 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    All depends on wind direction. Cork could do very well out of a straight easterly or a south easterly even

    Thanks, sometimes just seems like the rest of the country is abandoned once there’s mention of Dublin getting pasted :-P


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,030 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Others on here would know better than me but from memory during December 2010 in particular, a lot of those heavy showers crossing England stayed relatively intact and beefed up when crossing the Irish sea. Obviously less intense showers might die out en route but the Irish sea has a habit of creating its own great streamers. Some of these often start with very little over towards Wales and England but grow intensity over the Irish sea and dump a lot over Eastern areas in particular.

    Also worth remembering that the UK is not very wide in terms of landmass. Northern and Central England are narrower than Ireland in terms of width so it doesnt take an awful lot for large showers hitting the East of England to reach the Irish sea without losing too much intensity. That is my take on it but as i said others on here are far more knowedgable. I do know though that the Irish sea can produce some great snow on its own, sea effect snow or whatever you call that


    The gem especially is showing monster streamers into East England. Could they make it all the way across England and pep up again over the Irish sea or would they tend to have a negative effect on the ability of the Irish Sea to make its own?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 144 ✭✭KingJeremy


    leahyl wrote: »
    Thanks, sometimes just seems like the rest of the country is abandoned once there’s mention of Dublin getting pasted :-P

    Agreed. Is this because most of the weather experts on here are in the Dublin region or is it just that the Dublin area is in the firing line for this event? I can never tell


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 573 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    It's nearly the end of the working day and so the crowds head to Boards to see the update regarding the SNOW.........

    What I mean is that 427 people on the weather forum now.......

    I remember there being almost 600 people on during 2010.....

    Does anyone know the record for people on the weather forum?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Just going by this morning's ECM, and once again, and despite the forecast cold uppers, 2m temps are still looking unspectacular. Mins of zero at best along the east coast, and about a bog standard -2 or -3 in the west, which is very underwhelming for an easterly to be frank. Perhaps in reality temps will prove to be lower given the set up; one would certainly hope so anyway.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,378 ✭✭✭Consonata


    Just curious is this just going to be another dusting like we had 2/3 weeks ago, or are we talking Beast from the East mark 2


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Just going by this morning's ECM, and once again, and despite the forecast cold uppers, 2m temps are still looking unspectacular. Mins of zero at best along the east coast, and about a bog standard -2 or -3 in the west, which is very underwhelming for an easterly to be frank. Perhaps in reality temps will prove to be lower given the set up; one would certainly hope so anyway.

    I remember even with -12c 850hPa temps in 2018, temperatures at the seafront were still about +1 , now the wind was at force 7 and at times gale force 8 but with a strong onshore wind the impact of the maritime layer cannot be underestimated! Nonetheless I think onshore winds are looking less strong in this setup


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Late Jan/Early Feb is perfect time for these events! Still get longish days to stay out enjoying it even after work hours without temps rising too much to spoil it

    Nothing like these threads once an event has been locked in. Can't beat the energy , feels like being a child again :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Just going by this morning's ECM, and once again, and despite the forecast cold uppers, 2m temps are still looking unspectacular. Mins of zero at best along the east coast, and about a bog standard -2 or -3 in the west, which is very underwhelming for an easterly to be frank. Perhaps in reality temps will prove to be lower given the set up; one would certainly hope so anyway.

    As long as we get snow i don't care how cold it gets :)


  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    leahyl wrote: »
    Thanks, sometimes just seems like the rest of the country is abandoned once there’s mention of Dublin getting pasted :-P

    if there is a battleground between a low tracking south and the cold air then Cork and the South will get buried. Thats possible I believe next week .

    Cork Airport got almost a foot, 26 cm in Feb 1978. But drifting would have been higher. That was an Atlantic battleground situation, though I think the low was further west. Much of the rest of the country was dry.

    Here's Met Eireann's monthly synopsis.

    http://edepositireland.ie/bitstream/handle/2262/71003/Agromet%20Bull%207802.pdf


    it could all go the proverbial tits up and turn to rain though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 520 ✭✭✭gerrybhoy


    It's nearly the end of the working day and so the crowds head to Boards to see the update regarding the SNOW.........

    What I mean is that 427 people on the weather forum now.......

    I remember there being almost 600 people on during 2010.....

    Does anyone know the record for people on the weather forum?

    End of the working day?

    Been spending my working days the past few days checking this out,infact been on here more than my work system :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,644 ✭✭✭D9Male


    I am usually wrong, but I don't really see the massive potential in this one. I think the south and east will be cold enough for snow infrequently, and the west and north will be too dry. The Atlantic is a big danger of spoiling the fun too. And the jet stream may not stay as far south as we need it to. We need more consistent heights to our north to drive lows down into France. We are not going to have a block to keep the lows in the Atlantic. We need them to slide south into France giving us that lovely cold air from Easter Europe.


  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    gerrybhoy wrote: »
    End of the working day?

    Been spending my working days the past few days checking this out,infact been on here more than my work system :D

    That reminds me too, to use the other computer in future :-p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 934 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    Consonata wrote: »
    Just curious is this just going to be another dusting like we had 2/3 weeks ago, or are we talking Beast from the East mark 2

    Somewhere in between at the moment but closer to BFTE. :) Although it's worth noting that a massive blizzard on the scale of Storm Emma that followed the BFTE isn't on the charts (as of right now).


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,896 ✭✭✭Pentecost


    I hate to be one of those people that just pops up to ask about their area..but..I'm in the Midlands and we are relying on carers coming in and out for a family member so if someone had any kind of educated guess as to whether they think it could make it that far west if and when it arrives I'd be very appreciative.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,086 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Its always a bit of chicken and egg with temps. Establish a snow field and even with a slack but persistent easterly flow, deep night cold will come. Christmas morning of 2010 was - 15C over snow at my location.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,310 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Somewhere in between at the moment but closer to BFTE. :) Although it's worth noting that a massive blizzard on the scale of Storm Emma that followed the BFTE isn't on the charts (as of right now).


    If this mornings ECM ends up verifying there is some frontal snow potential later next week, will see will if this evenings ECM continues this trend.

    ECMWF_198_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

    ECMWF_240_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png


    The GFS does not show this and brings mild atlantic air back in with ease from Wednesday/Thursday so alot of uncertainty about the second half of next week.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,644 ✭✭✭D9Male


    https://amz.netweather.tv/monthly_2021_02/0D096A36-5E02-415C-B10E-AEEDC1DA3D75.gif.9f74a3745b74207988300f6d3ce8d66f.gif

    I should add that I have just had a look at the UKMO model, which is a lot more positive. See above for what we are ideally looking for with a low heading below us over France.

    That said, there is a constant bias towards favouring the "best" model for snow, which changes depending on the output. Unfortunately, the GFS has been on the money more frequently on treatment of Atlantic lows this winter (in my limited experience).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 138 ✭✭No Bills


    Looooong time weather boards lurker, first time poster!! Quick q for any of the enthusiasts in here. A ENE which is being metioned, who is in line for a IOM shadow??

    You can already see the projected impact of the Isle of Man shadow on the Met Eireann Rainfall Forecast (7 day). However, as others more qualified than me have pointed out, the impact will depend on the actual wind direction at the time.

    y7Bd3rn


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Is this snow event legit now? Or is there still a chance of it falling through? Just gotta say, quite surprised by how sudden all this is!


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  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    D9Male wrote: »
    https://amz.netweather.tv/monthly_2021_02/0D096A36-5E02-415C-B10E-AEEDC1DA3D75.gif.9f74a3745b74207988300f6d3ce8d66f.gif

    I should add that I have just had a look at the UKMO model, which is a lot more positive. See above for what we are ideally looking for with a low heading below us over France.

    That said, there is a constant bias towards favouring the "best" model for snow, which changes depending on the output. Unfortunately, the GFS has been on the money more frequently on treatment of Atlantic lows this winter (in my limited experience).

    I’m more of a watcher of model watcher’s than a model watcher myself but from what people are saying here and on NW that’s not true of this event. The GFS has been too progressive and mild on its op, disagreeing with its own ensembles and the other models and their ensembles.

    The UKmo is fairly accurate in the reliable timeframe. That’s their actual weather forecast after all. They don’t try to create panic where unnecessary.


  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Is this snow event legit now? Or is there still a chance of it falling through? Just gotta say, quite surprised by how sudden all this is!

    Sudden? That’s fighting talk.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,201 ✭✭✭ongarboy


    KingJeremy wrote: »
    Agreed. Is this because most of the weather experts on here are in the Dublin region or is it just that the Dublin area is in the firing line for this event? I can never tell

    In fairness, if 30% of the population of Ireland live in County Dublin as per last census, it's reasonable to expect that approximately up to one third of posts here may be Dublin-centric. Combine this with the high density in a small land area so that when snow does fall in Dublin, up to a million + people are potentially in the firing line. Snow falling in a same area size in a sparsely populated rural area will only have a fraction of impacted population...and correspondingly less posts about it. It's not abandonment, just per capita proportionality...which often seems like domination!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    As long as we get snow i don't care how cold it gets :)

    Fair enough, but it would be nice to get some decent temps for the rest of us to remember this easterly by. ICON, which handles temps fairly OK and which only goes out to 120hrs, has minima something akin to a flat tyre on Mon morn:

    ICOOPUK12_114_17.png

    Perhaps once the colder air become entrenched in the days after, that something a bit more compelling regarding temps will be in the offing.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,099 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Is this snow event legit now? Or is there still a chance of it falling through? Just gotta say, quite surprised by how sudden all this is!

    I'd say it's about 85% legit. If this evenings ECM is all go then you can be pretty sure.

    And sudden is a bit of a stretch this has been discussed on here since maybe the 24th January!


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  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Perhaps once the colder air become entrenched in the days after, that something a bit more compelling regarding temps will be in the offing.

    Surely it will. With the 6-10 feet of snow I expect in the east on average, the temperatures will fall much lower than the models can predict right now.

    So out west you will get some deep frosts. And a few flaks of snow. :pac::P


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Surely it will. With the 6-10 feet of snow I expect in the east on average, the temperatures will fall much lower than the models can predict right now.

    So out west you will get some deep frosts. And a few flaks of snow. :pac::P

    Couldn't care less about the snow. We badly need some dry weather.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,139 ✭✭✭compsys


    I'd say it's about 85% legit. If this evenings ECM is all go then you can be pretty sure.

    And sudden is a bit of a stretch this has been discussed on here since maybe the 24th January!

    In fairness we're always discussing cold spells on here in winter - it's sometimes difficult to know when one discussion ends and another begins.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,885 ✭✭✭Tzardine


    Really excited about the prospect of some snow. But hope it does not get too cold.

    Anything below about -5 and our well freezes overnight, leaving us with no water.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,580 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Fair enough, but it would be nice to get some decent temps for the rest of us to remember this easterly by. ICON, which handles temps fairly OK and which only goes out to 120hrs, has minima something akin to a flat tyre on Mon morn:

    ICOOPUK12_114_17.png

    Perhaps once the colder air become entrenched in the days after, that something a bit more compelling regarding temps will be in the offing.

    If the showers manage to make it as far as some midland locations, and there is decent accumulations arising from them, then i think temperatures in some rural spots will be lower than indicated


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,327 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Sorry if this has said before but doesn't the thread title need an upgrade? I think the potential bit is otiose now, and I think Friday 5th should read Sunday 7th? An ol' warning (Orange?) should probably be attached too....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,327 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    If the showers manage to make it as far as some midland locations, and there is decent accumulations arising from them, then i think temperatures in some rural spots will be lower than indicated

    Absolutely, once snowfields set up those temps become wildly inaccurate. A few days out from the December 2010 event I doubt the charts were showing the double digit negative figures ultimately reached. In an sort of decent easterly you'd expect to see -6c or lower at night in parts of Connacht.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 144 ✭✭KingJeremy


    ongarboy wrote: »
    In fairness, if 30% of the population of Ireland live in County Dublin as per last census, it's reasonable to expect that approximately up to one third of posts here may be Dublin-centric. Combine this with the high density in a small land area so that when snow does fall in Dublin, up to a million + people are potentially in the firing line. Snow falling in a same area size in a sparsely populated rural area will only have a fraction of impacted population...and correspondingly less posts about it. It's not abandonment, just per capita proportionality...which often seems like domination!

    Well put :-)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Not a great EC for longer term cold. Eeeek

    ECM1-144.GIF?03-0


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10 Brz555


    I remember during the BFTE the streamers made it as far west as Galway city, we got plastered before Emma even hit. Was just constant conveyor from east to west on the radar.


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